All times ET. Home team in CAPS.

Sunday 3:00 PM – Chiefs at RAVENS (-3)

Those audible cheers

come from the Inner Harbor.

Roquan rejoices.

Sunday 6:30 PM – Lions at 49ERS (-6.5)

They call him “Deebo.”

But his real name is Tyshun.

The Niners need him.

2-2 last weekend, getting shut out on Sunday. This week I’m on the Ravens -3 and the 49ers -6.5. Why? I just think these were clearly the two best teams in the sport and have been destined to meet in Vegas.

The four best teams in the NFL remain. That’s all we can ask for in the final weeks of an NFL season.

49ers at Eagles (-2.5), Over/Under 46.5

• Let’s look at some regular season rankings:
  • Yards per game: Eagles 3, Niners 5
  • Points per game: Eagles 3, Niners 6
  • Yards allowed per game: Niners 1, Eagles 2
  • Points allowed per game: Niners 1, Eagles 8
  • Opposing passer rating: Eagles 3, Niners 6
  • Sacks: Eagles 1, Niners 11
  • Interceptions: Niners T-1, Eagles T-4
  • Turnover differential: Niners 1, Eagles 3
• What do those stats show? There is no advantage in this game. It is going to be decided by a big play here, or a big play there, or a costly turnover at the wrong moment, or a brilliant special teams moment. I give the Eagles a slight edge at quarterback, and a slight edge for the home field. And that slight edge is reflected in my score prediction.
• Eagles 24, 49ers 23

Bengals (-1) at Chiefs, Over/Under 47.5

• The Chiefs had been favored in 14 consecutive postseason games, and the only reason they are not favored this week is because of the health of their quarterback. What will Patrick Mahomes look like Sunday evening? There is a strong chance we won’t know until the game kicks off, and that makes it near-impossible to predict with any semblance of certainty.
• Joe Burrow’s postseason stats: 5-1, 68.1% completion, 1,556 yards, 8 TDs, 2 INTS, 98.4 rating. Against the best competition, Burrow is at his best. Is he the best quarterback in the sport?
• With a hobbled Mahomes, I don’t think the Bengals are the better team. I think they are the significantly better team. So…
• Bengals 31, Chiefs 20

Ultimately, I went 7-5 on Wildcard Weekend, completely whiffing on Cowboys/Bucs to finish. (Each of Brett Maher’s FOUR missed extra points kept the game from hitting the over.) Now we enter the NFL’s best weekend, and the league has served us four terrific games. The goal is simply to stay above .500 the rest of the way.

This week’s three-bullet approach will be a point on each team and a score prediction. Again, my picks against the spread and the total are in the final score predictions. All numbers from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jaguars at Chiefs (-8.5), Over/Under 53

• There is nothing particularly interesting about the Chiefs. We saw this story in New England for decades. When you have the best coach and quarterback at the same time, you’ll find yourself in just about every conference title game. The Reid/Mahomes Chiefs have reached a point where they don’t play an important game until late January.
• The Jags did not look good in their regular season finale, and that carried over into Los Angeles. Fun comeback, sure, but felt more like a Chargers collapse than a Jaguars creation. (Still mind blowing that the scapegoat for that loss has been the LA offensive staff and not the head coach.)
• Chiefs 40, Jaguars 27

Giants at Eagles (-7.5), Over/Under 48

• Which quarterback is going to have more success on the ground. Jalen Hurts averaged 4.6 yards per carry this season. Daniel Jones averaged 5.9. Giants’ receivers won’t be as wide open against this secondary, and Jones won’t have hours in the pocket against this pass rush. If Jones isn’t moving the chains with his legs, the Giants will be chasing this game.
• There are 2006 Chicago Bears vibes with this 2022 Eagles team. Nobody believed that Bears team was capable of making it to the Super Bowl, even though they’d been the best team in the conference the entire season. The Eagles are quite simply the far better team here. Theyll find a way.
• Eagles 27, Giants 20

Bengals at Bills (-5), Over/Under 48.5

• Who the hell knows? Honestly, how is this spread five points? There is very little discernible difference between these two clubs, so the small advantage goes to Buffalo’s home field. (But they were home last weekend and looked about as sloppy as they have all year.)
• If you’re looking for a Bengals advantage, it is turnovers. Bengals were +6 on the season and used a shocking turnover to advance from the first round. Bills broke even with turnover differential during the season and tried everything they could to fumble and drop their playoff opener. My brain tells me this is a budding upset. But…
• Bills 33, Bengals 30

Read More …

This is less a gambling guide, and more an overview of the weekend’s action with predictions. But my gambling choices are evident in my final score prognostications. (All lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.)

Seahawks at 49ers (-9.5), Over/Under: 42.5

• Just as we all predicted in August, the 2022 season could be decided by Brock Purdy’s performance in the postseason. Purdy was a player I liked in the draft, precisely because I watched him play football and not run around in his underwear in Indianapolis. He was a gamer at Iowa State, and those types of guys tend to find a role in the NFL.
• Seattle is playing with house money and teams in that position are always dangerous. This feels like a game that is 13-13 early in the second quarter, and gamblers start getting nervous, only to see it completely unravel for the Seahawks after a costly turnover or two.
• 49ers 34, Seahawks 16

Chargers (-2) at Jaguars, Over/Under: 47.5

• This was the predictable Saturday night contest, but if the league had some leadership, they would have put it in the premier Sunday night slot and marketed the hell out of these two young superstar QBs. Instead, the game of the weekend will be played in the least-watched time slot.
• This game feels incredibly even, and when that’s the case I look at three essential elements: quarterback, coach and building. Quarterback is a push right now, and the home field in Jacksonville isn’t much of one. But this is the most significant coaching mismatch of the week. Doug Pederson is a big game guy and Brandon Staley has absolutely no in-game feel. The latter will make a head-scratching decision (he always does) to decide this contest.
• Jaguars 27, Chargers 23

Dolphins at Bills (-13.5), Over/Under: 47

• Was it the Dolphins? Was it the league? Was it his family? It’s not important. Tua Tagovailoa is not playing in this ballgame and that is important for the long-term health of the young man’s brain. Tua will now have the next seven months to establish whether he wants to assume the risk of continuing his football career. One hopes that he’ll visit with serious neurologists during that time, doctors unaffiliated with the league.
• Without Tua, this is a serious mismatch.
• Bills 40, Dolphins 17

Read More …

It was a dreary affair.

My cat, Bear, hides under the bed when he’s not feeling particularly well. I know this is pretty common for cats, but I love Bear and I don’t like it when he’s under there. In the second quarter, when the football game was unwatchable, I spent a few minutes laying on the cold wood of my bedroom floor, petting him as he purred. This seemed to me, at the moment, a far better use of my time.

Then halftime happened.

And the Chicago Bears that emerged from the locker room bore little resemblance to the team that went in fifteen minutes earlier. The offense, which looked like it was trying to operate in a phone booth over the first two quarters, expanded from sideline-to-sideline and let their athletic quarterback maneuver his way through the game.

Three drives.

5 plays, 72 yards, touchdown.

10 plays, 84 yards, touchdown.

5 plays, 21 yards, touchdown.

The defense had been doing their job. The offense finally showed up for work. And in those three drives, each uniquely odd, Matt Eberflus established, without argument, the Bears have a capable professional in the head coaching gig. Pioneering sports talker Mike Francesa has always defined the role of NFL head coach as having two tasks: giving players a plan for success and motivating them to execute that plan.

Read More …

Last week my attempts to go 8-8 on point spreads and over/unders failed, as I came in a measly 5-8. (I was 13 seconds from a triumphant 6-8.) This week I smell a 4-4. Do you?

____________________

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7), Over/Under 54.5

• The Bengals should not have beaten the Raiders. The Bengals would not have beaten the Titans if Ryan Tannehill showed up. This is a different animal, in a different environment. Chiefs win by multiple touchdowns, making the -7 an easy play.
• Not overthinking it. The Chiefs are playing. Over.

____________________

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5), Over/Under 45.5

• The Rams have had huge leads in their last three games and failed to sufficiently close two of them. Does this team have a killer instinct? They’ll need one against a Niners teams that is finding ways to win every week without the services of a quarterback. Rams play their most complete game of the year and cover the -3.5.
• These teams have played twice. First meeting total was 41, with the Rams only scoring 10. Second meeting, the Rams blew a big lead to the total of 51. Kyle Shanahan has dominated his matchups with Sean McVay, so it’s unlikely the Rams will shut down the Niners offense. That puts both teams in the 20s, and that means I’m slamming the over.

Sean Desai dressed as Mel Tucker for Halloween. And he was the spitting image.

It was just another failure of Matt Nagy’s tenure; the second straight game in which Desai had no answers for his opponent and the third time this season in which his defense has been completely outclassed. Desai’s squad has allowed more than seven yards per play twice already this year, after the Bears did so just once in Chuck Pagano’s 33 games.

There are excuses for Desai, but they don’t really add up. The Bears had injuries, but they still had good players on the field. One could argue that Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman, Robert Quinn, Jaylon Johnson and Roquan Smith are all better at their jobs than any of the team’s offensive players.

It isn’t just that they struggled against a 49ers offense that was average at best coming into the afternoon. The Bears were gashed on every single play. The 49ers gained 8.6 yards per play. In the 55-14 blowout loss to Green Bay in 2014, the Packers gained seven yards per play. The only time Tucker’s unit gave up more than eight yards per play was a 54-11 loss to Philadelphia in 2013 — and that was still nearly half a yard less per play. The only reason the 49ers didn’t score 50 points is because the Bears controlled the time of possession with a nearly 15-minute advantage.

The 49ers went into the game as an average offense. They came out as juggernauts..

Read More …