Greetings, Bears fans. It’s been awhile.

I started a new job at the beginning of the month, which is exciting and all that, but not nearly as exciting as the Bears being 8-3 with a (semi) comfortable lead in the NFC North as we head into the final stretch of the regular season!

My last blog post emphasized the importance of the three straight divisional games the Bears have just completed. At the time, I wrote that if the Bears were able to go 2-1 in that stretch, it’d be a huge boon for their chances to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010.

I thought it’d be hard, but doable. More than anything I thought it’d give us a clear idea of who this team is and what they are capable of achieving in 2018. My exact words:

It’s already clear this Bears team is different from what we’ve gotten used to watching in seasons past. Just how different remains to be seen. Check back with me after Thanksgiving.

Well, it’s after Thanksgiving. I’m 5 lbs heavier and 500% (not a math major) more confident that the Chicago Bears are a damn good football team. Not only good, but extremely fun to watch, in part because you can tell how much the players are enjoying themselves.

Ranking the #Bears’ best celebrations this season through eight wins. From myself and the one and only @PatrickFinley:https://t.co/LUpXdhPvXo

— Adam Jahns (@adamjahns) November 26, 2018

And why shouldn’t they? Most teams in the NFL are mediocre, some straight up suck, and handful of teams are actually good. The Bears have been mediocre to awful for years now, so this season has been an absolute revelation as a fan, and frankly if you’re not enjoying yourself I’m not sure what could possibly make you happy.

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Here at DBB, we’ve been high on optimism for the Bears’ 2018 season pretty much since Matt Nagy was hired back in January, and we’re not the only ones. Both local and national media are feeling the enthusiasm and energy emanating from Halas Hall, and with good reason!

We’ve laid out all those reasons why we should all be psyched about the direction the Bears are heading in previous, and I fully stand by those predictions. At the same time, I’m not the hardcore Pollyanna that I’ve likely come across as in my last few articles. There’s a limit to my enthusiasm, and there are some actual markers of change the Bears are going to have to hit this season for me to continue to do things like  compare Trubisky to Roger Federer and Serena Williams.

This isn’t an exhaustive list, but I’ve laid out three things the Chicago Bears MUST do to justify continued optimism into the 2019 season. This isn’t a dream scenario list. This is a bare minimum list for me to not sink into a pit of deep, deep despair.

For the purposes of this list I’m not factoring in the possibility of serious injury to top players. Not because it couldn’t happen, but because a) it’s morbid b) it’s largely out of the team’s control and, c) it would cause me to have a very different perspective on the season moving forward.

First.

They have to finish at least .500.

Football is a rare sport in that literally every game matters. You look at baseball, basketball, or hockey and it’s absurd to think that one game would change the way fans view an entire season. But football teams don’t play 162 games in a season, they play 16, and there’s a significant difference between a team going 7-9 and 8-8. Even if that’s only in perspective.

The last time the Bears had a a winning season was 2012. In 2013 they went 8-8 and, well, we all know how things have gone since then. The Bears don’t have the easiest of schedules – of course that’s not always the most straightforward metric to measure a month before a season actually begins. Still, I’m sick of rooting for a losing team. The Bears absolutely have enough talent to earn as many wins as losses.

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The top three results before free agency (and the combine) were: 8-8 (33.8%), 9-7 (33.1%), 6-7 wins (19.48%).

The top three results after free agency were 8-8 (40.37%), 9-7 (35.3%), 10 wins or more (11.83%). Fans are clearly trending positive.

There’s no way of knowing if Mitch Trubisky is going to be the starting quarterback of the Chicago Bears for the next decade plus. But he could be.

There’s no way of knowing if Matt Nagy is fifteen years away from opening a fish restaurant in the Drake Hotel’s old Cape Cod Room space. But he could be.

There’s no way of knowing if the men chosen to improve the league’s worst collection of pass catchers in 2017 – Robinson, Gabriel, Burton – will be the right ones. But they could be.

There’s no way of knowing if the Bears will be playing meaningful football games in December 2018. But they could be.

And why would any fan choose to believe anything else?

Optimism in sports is a perfectly-poured pint of Guinness, served with the harp facing OUT. It’s frothy. It’s delicious. Every time you lift the glass to your lips you think, “this is going to be the one that gets everything right.” And most mortals drinking “the dark stuff” – much like those overly optimistic – omit a noxious plume that those within a five-foot radius find…disconcerting.

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Many of you are probably thinking, “This poll is just a way to take up space for the day.” And you’re right. Partly. But this is going to one of four such polls put up in this space prior to kicking off the 2018 campaign. Today. After the first wave of free agency. After the draft. After the preseason. Let’s see how fan enthusiasm changes over the course of the off-season.