Stop what you’re doing & meet @ELITHEMAN1 😂 pic.twitter.com/Qpa8EtjRTn

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) April 30, 2022

We’ll have a full recap of this draft haul for the Bears tomorrow.

Pick # 39

Washington, CB, Kyler Gordon

From NFL.com: “Cornerback who comes with an elite, high-performance engine but a GPS still in the process of loading. Gordon’s dynamic athletic qualities will show up in testing, but more importantly, they are all over his tape. His blend of play strength and explosive burst affects the passing game from press, off-man and zone coverages. He plays with an alpha demeanor and hitting is definitely part of his overall package. Gordon lacks polish and needs to play with better route recognition and anticipation, but if those elements click, his ball production could be near the top of the league as one of the top playmakers in the game.”

Pick #48

Penn State, S, Jaquan Brisker

From NFL.com: “Athletic safety prospect whose versatility and toughness will endear him to coaches during the evaluation process. Brisker continued to pick up elements of the defensive scheme and his play has steadily transformed from hesitant in 2019 to downright instinctive in 2021. He has the versatility to become a moving chess piece in a variety of coverages and has the size and talent to match up with both “Y” and “F” tight ends. He played with a banged-up shoulder in 2021 so his 2020 tape is a clearer indicator of his run support acumen. Brisker is an ascending talent with the NFL traits to become a long-time starter as a Day 2 draft pick.”

Pick #71

Tennessee, WR, Velus Jones Jr. 

From NFL.com: “Special-teams specialist with good size. Despite spending six seasons in college between his time at USC and Tennessee, Jones has very modest production as a wideout, but flashed potential in that area in 2021. He’s fearless with the ball in his hands after the catch and as a kick returner. He’s not a very fundamentally sound route-runner but might not need to be if teams view him as a catch-and-run specialist in the quick game underneath. Jones has a chance to ride his special teams versatility into a specialist spot on a roster.”

Some NFL teams have fewer than 15 players with first-round grades in this week’s draft. So who could be some of the surprises of Round 1? Here are seven names to watch: https://t.co/nuMteJtpJh

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) April 26, 2022

Historically, I don’t start thinking about the NFL Draft until the Monday of draft week. Despite the Draft Industrial Complex’s ridiculous year-to-year growth, it’s all you need. 75% of the players drafted this week will be completely irrelevant at the professional level. 10% (max) will be serious contributors. The draft requiring months-upon-months of analysis is a completely modern phenomenon. There used to be 1-2 draft gurus. The draft used to be held in the anonymity of weekend afternoons. And you know what? Teams were probably better at drafting then.

Here are a few notes I got from folks around the league regarding names available for the Bears tonight and the rest of the weekend. I don’t particularly care how the Bears approach Friday night; they need a lot of players. But I would like to see one of those picks be used on wide receiver.

• On Andrew’s guy George Pickens: “He’s a turd. Absolute head case.”
  • A second scout on Pickens: “Watch him block. He’s going to be a very good pro.”
• On Wood’s guy Calvin Austin: “Love him. If we didn’t have [REDACTED], we’d be all over him.”
• On my guy Slade Bolden: “Free agent. Can’t run.”
• On Christian Watson: “Somebody is going to take him way too high but in the second round, grab him.”
• On Alec Pierce: “Somebody is going to take Garrett Wilson at 10 and somebody is going to take Alec Pierce at 50 and while Wilson may have a better career it won’t be a huge difference.”
• On the quarterbacks: “Willis is not good on the whiteboard. Corral has off-field concerns.  I think Howell will be a little better than them all.”
• On Nick Petit-Frere: “Not a lot of bad snaps, except against Michigan. Solid pro if he can get stronger.”
• On Luke Goedeke: “Tough/nasty. More of a guard but could get you out of a game at tackle.”

And a general note on the entire draft.

DBB: Why is this draft so unpredictable?

Answer: Because there is no top tier talent. There is no Chase Young, Myles Garrett, Trevor Lawrence….when there are dominant players at QB, LT, pass rusher…we know how the top ten will shake out. There is good and some really good talent in this draft. But very few, if any, surefire blue chippers.  

Let’s look at historical trends to see where the Bears can expect to find positional value at various points in the draft. This builds very closely off work I’ve done each of the last two years, and here’s a quick recap of the approach:

• I looked at the last 15 drafts (2007-21) to see how many players at each position were drafted in the top 50 (their 2nd round picks are #39 and 48), top 70 (their 3rd round pick is #71), and top 150 (their next picks are #148 and #150). I didn’t look at the 1st round because the Bears don’t have a 1st round pick this year.
  • My source for this data did not differentiate between CB and S, so I combined those into DB.
  • They did differentiate between interior offensive line and offensive tackle, so I kept those separate.
• I then used The Athletic’s composite big board, which averages rankings from a number of different draft sources, to compare to historical trends. I focused especially on positions which I believe are the primary needs for the Bears. The idea here is that positions with more players than usual ranked in a given range are more likely to have somebody highly rated slip through the cracks, while positions with fewer players than usual ranked in a given range are more likely to have somebody reach for them to fill a need.

This is my third year applying this approach to the draft, and I was a bit hesitant about it at first, because it seems risky to rely on draft rankings from people who don’t work in the NFL. It’s quite possible that people in the NFL view these players entirely differently. However, I think the track record has been pretty solid over the last two years. For instance:

• In 2020, I found the Bears should look to grab a defensive back early, because the depth on day three was not very good, and they landed Jaylon Johnson in round two. I also found the value at WR should be good throughout the draft, so the Bears could add there at any point, and they found Darnell Mooney in round five.
• In 2021, I found the QB class was loaded at the top but not deep, so the Bears should look to take a QB early. At the same time, I found the OT class was historically deep, so they should look to draft one early and another late. They ended up with Justin Fields, Teven Jenkins, and Larry Borom all contributing as rookies.
• Of course, it hasn’t all been great. In 2020 I said the Bears would not find value at TE in round 2, and they landed Cole Kmet, who has at least been a capable player (even if I don’t think he’s particularly great).

This is definitely an inexact science, and we don’t want to put too much stock in it, but I think it’s a useful exercise to see what positions might have more good players than usual, and thus possibly value for the Bears.

Round 2 (Top 50)

Here is the data for players drafted in the top 50.

• Because every draft is different, I provided a range from the least to most players at that position drafted in the top 50 picks since 2007, as well as an average.
• The last column shows how many players from that position are ranked in the top 50 right now according to the composite big board linked above.
• Positions that are particularly good or bad are highlighted in colors (red for historically low, orange for near the low end of the range, light green for near the top end of the range, and green for historically good).

A few thoughts:

• It’s a good year for the Bears to need a WR, especially at the top of their draft. There are nine WRs ranked in the top 50 on the composite big board, there have been eight or fewer WRs taken in the top 50 13 times in the last 15 drafts. If history holds here, the Bears should have some solid value options at WR with either of their second round picks.
• There also seems to be pretty solid value at defensive back, where 12 players are ranked in the top 50 and 13 of the last 15 drafts have seen 11 or fewer DBs selected in that range. The Bears could use starters at outside CB, nickel CB, and safety, so they may look to fill one of those spots in the second round.
• The rest of the Bears’ biggest need positions are right around their historical averages, meaning there may or may not be value present for the Bears, depending on how the draft falls.

Read More …

With as many needs as the Chicago Bears have, it would be hard for them to go wrong, regardless of which positions they pick Friday night. But the one player who could drastically change how the team looks going forward is Georgia wide receiver George Pickens.

Pickens is the complete package: size, speed and even blocking ability (something that will likely be important to the Bears). He would provide the Bears and Justin Fields with a big target (six-foot-three) on the outside who can get deep and make plays after the catch. When is the last time the Bears had a receiver like that?

Pickens led Georgia in receiving as a freshman and a sophomore and scored 14 touchdowns in his first 20 college games. He averaged 15 yards per catch for his career, despite some questionable quarterback play.

George Pickens is a WR prospect in the 2022 draft class. He scored a 9.33 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 176 out of 2613 WR from 1987 to 2022. https://t.co/QGryvf6kwr #RAS pic.twitter.com/wEwbva841u

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 23, 2022

There seems to be little question that Pickens is one of the 20 most talented players in this draft. The only reason the Bears have a realistic shot at him is because of injuries. He missed most of his junior season after tearing his ACL in March. He came back at the end of the year but wasn’t quite up to speed. He also missed two games as a sophomore.

There have been some reports of character questions with Pickens, though those remarks could also have come from teams hoping he falls — believe very little of what you hear this week.

Read More …

It’s no secret that the Bears need a WR, but I would take it even further; they should enter the weekend with the goal of drafting two wideouts they think can contribute right away.

One of those has to be a bigger-bodied WR, which they are sorely missing right now, but my draft crush does not fit that bill.

In fact, Memphis WR Calvin Austin III comes in at the other end of the spectrum for WRs. He stands only 5’7″ and weighed in at the Combine at only 170 pounds. If you’re going to be that small, you need to be an athletic freak to make it at the NFL level, and Austin certainly fits the bill.

This is Austin’s Relative Athletic Score, or RAS, based on his Combine performance. RAS scales everything against historical players at your position from 0 (worst) to 10 (best). As I’ve already said, Austin is tiny, but he scores in the top 8% amongst WRs in literally every athletic testing metric (credit to Kent Lee Platte for RAS data), placing him in the top 6% overall in total athletic ability.

That athleticism certainly shows up when you watch Austin play. He’s both fast and quick, and his change of direction abilities are noticeable in tight spaces. This speed and acceleration lets Austin excel after the catch, as he had the 5th highest yards after the catch/catch mark of all WRs in the 2022 draft.

Read More …

Lance Zierlein.

From his draft profile on NFL.com:

Slot target who will catch and gain what is available but is unlikely to do much beyond that. Bolden has adequate quickness for the Alabama scheme but isn’t an explosive separator. He has the hands and toughness to work in the middle of the field but will see diminishing catch windows the further he gets from the line of scrimmage. He doesn’t have the speed or catch radius to help inaccurate passers and he doesn’t appear to have enough talent to shine outside of the Alabama juggernaut.

Tweet.

These teams going fuck around and let Slade Bolden go to Bill Belichick and cause havoc on the league for 10 years lol.

— CLew🔎 (@droppedballspod) April 14, 2022

Video.

Thoughts.

• Draft him. Don’t let him slide to the UFA market, where he’ll inevitably sign with the Patriots. Those late-round picks rarely yield positive results. Take a shot on a player that could be a significant contributor at the NFL level. (NFL.com’s seven-round mock has the Pats taking him in the 6th round.)
• Cooper Kupp ran a 4.62. Bolden runs a 4.66. Their athletic profiles are THAT different? By the way, here’s what Lance Zierlein – an analyst I love – said about Kupp: “His transition to NFL-level cornerbacks will take time, but he has the ability to become an early No. 3 receiver and eventual starter.” This is not an argument that Bolden is the next Kupp. He’s likely not. But these quick-hit slot guys are a young QB’s best friend. And Justin Fields needs some friends.
• The criticism that “he played for a juggernaut in Alabama” seems silly to me. You want to draft players that went to crappy schools instead? Bolden fought his way onto the field and produced, competing against the most gifted roster in college football. Don’t be surprised if he becomes productive on specials, knowing it’s his quickest path to the game day roster.

[Editor’s Note: My NFL scout buddy thinks Bolden is a non-prospect.]

This week, DBB is trying something new. Instead of just filling your screen with mindless mock drafts, wherein we guess what teams are going to do this week, all three of our writers are going to single out a player they love, specifically for the Bears, in this draft class. (In my case, because I own the site, I’m getting two!)

Today, we start with Darian Kinnard.

Video.

Lance Zierlein.

From his draft profile on NFL.com:

Three-year starter at right tackle with a right guard projection, Kinnard possesses a frame that is very girthy but well proportioned. He’s not a bad athlete but faces limitations with lateral and recovery movements. A transition inside should allow for more advantageous positioning as both a drive blocker and in pass protection. Kinnard is an all-day mauler relying heavily upon a nasty demeanor and physical advantages to overwhelm opponents. However, he could see a substantial downturn in success rate at the pro level unless he spends more time and energy improving his hand usage, footwork and overall technique.

Tweet.

Darian Kinnard is a damn legend

He chose to come back for one final year to play left tackle. When Dare became available, he welcomed him with open arms and moved back to right tackle because it was the best move #ForTheTeam. pic.twitter.com/cOdCQOp2Pi

— Mark Stoops Burner (@BBN_Commenter) January 2, 2022

Read More …