In these conditions,
Bank on the better talent.
That ain’t Chicago.
Buffalo Bills 27, Chicago Bears 13
Week 16: Bills at Bears Game Prediction Haiku
Buffalo Bills 27, Chicago Bears 13
Let’s be honest, we’re going through the motions here.
Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?
I.
Always.
Like.
THE.
Chicago.
Bears.
The Bills came into this season in an incredibly difficult spot. They were the universal choice to win the Super Bowl, many believing they should have won it all LAST year (including me). They had nothing to gain and everything to lose in this regular season. And through 15 weeks, they have had to both shoulder the burden of expectations and survive an onslaught of injuries at key positions, especially on defense.
And they have weathered all of it. It hasn’t always been pretty, but they now find themselves the top seed in the AFC with three games to play. Their schedule isn’t easy down this final stretch, with a Monday Night Football visit to Cincinnati in Week 17, but even facing the prospect of an AFC title game in KC, the Bills will likely be the Super Bowl favorite coming out of the regular season. And deservedly so.
With conditions expected to be difficult on Sunday, don’t expect it to bother Josh Allen and the Bills. Nothing bothers them. And when conditions are difficult, I’d expect the bigger effort to come from the better team with everything to play for.
Offense:
Notes: The ascendancy of the Bears offense is showing up statistically, and their path to increased improvement is clear. The Bears know they’ll be able to run the football in 2023. Every decision they make this off-season should be geared towards improving the passing game.
Defense:
Notes: These numbers tell me something: the Bears are seriously improved at the back of this defense. If they focus on the defensive line, including the pass rush, they should be able to jump their overall defensive numbers into the top half of the league. If they do that, this is a playoff contender in 2023.
For much of his rookie season, most of the talk surrounding Kyler Gordon has been about players the Bears could’ve had instead. But Sunday was a big step for the kid, as he prepared to close out an inconsistent but improving rookie season. While his coverage issues have been problematic at times, the Bears got exactly what they’ve wanted from Gordon this week, as he took the ball away twice against Philadelphia.
The Bears almost immediately slid Gordon into the slot corner position in the defense. They did so because it is a playmaking position in their scheme; he might not be able to stick with the league’s best wide receivers in coverage, but if he can attack the ball, the team will be happy.
Gordon will get better in coverage, and he already has, but he Bears might not need him to be a top cover corner.
By now, we all know and should accept that Jaylon Johnson is a high-level coverage corner. He gave up quite a bit against the Eagles, but almost everything he surrendered was earned through tight coverage. The Bears will still want him to make more plays on the ball going forward, but Johnson is proving to be a good starting corner.
Jaylon Jones might be the real key to the secondary going forward. He too struggled in coverage early this season, but has been especially sticky in recent weeks.
If the Jaylons can man the outside of the Bears defense, it will free Gordon to focus more on taking the ball away. If Sunday was any indication, the Bears just might have something.
As sticky as the Bears were in coverage last week, Jalen Hurts still managed to throw for more than 300 yards simply because his wide receivers made plays on contested passes.
While Hurts deserves credit for delivering great passes, the Eagles have two high-level wide receivers who have made their quarterback’s life much easier. While we can pinpoint potential solutions to most of the Bears problems, wide receiver is a tricky one.
The hope was that Darnell Mooney would take another step this year, but that didn’t really happen. The Bears traded what looks to be the 33rd pick and will almost certainly be in the top 35 for Chase Claypool who has done very little.
While both would benefit from better offensive line play – an issue that has often destroyed the team’s passing game – there is little question that neither are stars or even close to the likes of A.J. Brown and probably not even DaVonta Smith.
What also hurts is 2022 third-round pick Velus Jones Jr. looking absolutely unplayable simply because he can’t hold onto the ball. If Jones Jr. can’t make more of an impact than Nsimba Webster, they can’t include him in any future plans.
There isn’t an elite wide receiver prospect available early in this year’s draft and it seems rather unlikely that the team would use its other second round pick on the same position it used its first second rounder on. The free agent market doesn’t look all that promising either.
While they’ll probably add a draft pick or a cheaper veteran, the Bears are likely stuck without a true game-changing wide receiver for at least another year.
While some Bears fans have already put the young linebacker in the Hall of Fame, the team very likely needed to see more from Jack Sanborn in order to guarantee a starting spot for him in 2023.
It will be interesting to find out what the Bears evaluation of Sanborn is. Eberlfus has a history of prioritizing speed at the linebacker position and Sanborn (4.73 40) is considerably slower than any linebacker the Colts drafted while Eberflus was their defensive coordinator.
Sanborn has some clear strengths as he consistently showed the ability to get off blockers and make plays while attacking the line of scrimmage. At the very least, he has proven that he should have been drafted.
But that might not be enough for the Bears, especially with Bobby Okereke looming in free agency. Okereke played inside linebacker for Eberflus in 2021 and would give the team a surefire star at the second level. Okereke would be a clear upgrade, especially in pass coverage, where both Sanborn and Nick Morrow have struggled.
It’s undeniable that Sanborn was improving every week, but is that enough to prevent the team from pursuing a high-level player like Okereke? We’ll find out.
Perhaps the most annoying thing about the Buffalo Bills is that their mascot is actually a bison.
While one can argue that William the Buffalo’s blue color makes him clearly a fictional creature, it’s undeniable that they were attempting to make him look like a bison, thinking it was a buffalo.
It’s a common mistake. Personally, I blame Kevin Costner and the movie Dances with Wolves as they regularly referred to bison as buffalo. A buffalo looks much more like a cow than it does a bison.
Maybe the worst part is that the Bills didn’t have to do it this way. The team is named after frontiersman Buffalo Bill Cody; they could’ve had a cowboy or an early settler as their mascot. Instead, they picked the wrong animal.
As for the game, I fully expect the Bears to be buffaloed by the Bills.
Thought experiment.
Name a position on the Chicago Bears that can’t be significantly improved.
The quarterback is the most exciting football player in Chicago since Devin Hester, but he certainly has much room for improvement, and our own Data detailed where that improvement might come.
The running back room is as deep as you’ll find in the league but is there a home run hitter in the group? Are any of these guys a Derrick Henry, or Travis Etienne?
The pass catchers and offensive linemen are both bottom five in the sport. Is there a single irreplaceable player to be found at center, guard, tackle, tight end or wideout? (I have seriously high hopes for Chase Claypool and think Braxton Jones and Teven Jenkins can develop into players. But that’s about it.)
There are some serious young talents on the defensive side of the ball. But there is not a single player over there that currently ranks in the top ten in the sport at their position.
When you look at the top teams in the league – Buffalo, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Philly, San Francisco – what do you see? With a proliferation, a plethora of blue-chip players, these are not rosters stuffed with talent deemed “good enough” to compete. These are rosters with a half dozen or more guys who define how the sport is played at the highest level. And the Bears must not rule out addressing ANY position on the roster (outside QB) until they have found several of those players for themselves.
“Good enough” is not good enough. “Good enough” only works when a roster is also littered with “great”, and the Bears are a long way from that. Ryan Poles has shown himself to be somewhat ruthless when it comes to reconstructing the Chicago Bears. He’s good at demolition. For the Bears to win under his leadership, he’ll need to show he can not only tear down the block, but he can also build something beautiful on the site of the wreckage.
That works starts as soon as this season comes to its merciful end.
Bears targets today:
Kmet 5
Pettis 4
Webster 3
Montgomery 3
VJJ 2
Pringle 2
ESB 1
Ebner 1Fields: 67% completion, 7.2 yards/attempt, 2 TD, 0 INT, 120 passer rating. Oh yeah, 95 rushing yards too.
FWIW, PHI came into the game allowing 61% completion, 6.1 yds/att, 16 TD/15 INT
— Johnathan Wood (@Johnathan_Wood1) December 18, 2022
It isn’t too hard to remember when Bears fans were writing Thomas Graham Jr.’s name down as a key part of the organization’s future. The sixth rounder had a strong showing at the end of the 2021 season, after not playing at all up until that point. The expectation was that Graham would be a starter in 2022, but he wasn’t even close to that. He was injured early in training camp, but even after he was healthy the team instead decided to use roster spots on Jaylon Jones and Josh Blackwell. Graham went to the practice squad where he was later signed by Cleveland.
Cleveland hasn’t had much use for him. After being signed to the active roster originally, Graham was demoted to the practice squad. He was promoted back to the active roster on Oct. 31 but didn’t play a single defensive snap until last week.
Graham’s story isn’t uncommon. Bears fans, especially, should know to be cautious when it comes to how a player looks at the end of a dead-end season, though the Devin Aromashodu highlights can be fun. Who can forget Brock Forsey running for 134 yards? My guess is most of you did.
We won’t learn a whole lot about the Chicago Bears in the last four games of the season.
The Bears are unlikely to win any of their remaining games. The Philadelphia Eagles might be the best team in the league. If they’re not, that distinction could be awarded the Buffalo Bills. Since starting the season 1-6. the Detroit Lions have been a top NFC side, going 5-1 and last Sunday, making their case as the best team in the NFC North (despite overall record). The Minnesota Vikings will win the division but with Dallas and San Francisco breathing down their necks for the two seed, they will need a win in the finale. In none of these final four contests will the Bears be less than a touchdown underdog. They may steal a victory in this closing month, but it’ll be a surprise if they do.
So, what is left for the Bears fan? The answer, sadly, is not much.
Justin Fields has proven to be one of the most electric quarterbacks in the league and the future at the position in Chicago. That was everything in 2022.
We know what the Bears have on their offensive and defensive lines, i.e., not much. (Teven Jenkins can play, it seems. Can Braxton Jones? I honestly don’t know.)
We’ve seen glimpses of production from the receivers (Claypool, Harry, EQ) but know improvement is needed. We’ve seen production in the secondary but know reinforcements are needed there as well. (You can never have enough quality corners.)
And we’ve seen quite the revelation in Jack Sanborn, whose production the last few weeks saved the Chicago Bears about $100 million in what would have been misallocated resources.
The beats will beat on; they don’t have the luxury of this approach. Kevin Fishbain can’t just write, “Ah, fuck it, this game doesn’t mean anything,” and still hope his direct deposit from the fine folks at The New York Times Company goes through. But if the Bears are smart, they are going to use these final four contests for purely evaluative purposes. That means any player with a tenuous role moving forward should be on the field for meaningful reps. These are not preseason games. These are four real contests against good teams with the world to play for. You want to find out what these young players have?
Draft position is important. But there is little drama remaining there. Even if the Bears steal another victory, they will be picking in the top five, and likely the top three. With this draft reportedly top heavy at quarterback, Ryan Poles should have an opportunity to trade back and add premium picks. (This roster needs them.) If a big trade doesn’t surface, Poles will have to decide whether to a top lineman prospect or electrifying wide receiver. I can tell you right now, having watched what’s happening around the league, I’ll be pushing for the latter.
Enjoy this final month, Bears fans. The team has their quarterback and 2023 Bears, while not yet contenders, should be the most entertaining team on the lakefront in modern history. The arrow for this franchise is pointed decidedly up, with an exciting off-season soon to come. We just have to suffer through a few losses down the stretch to get there.
