Team Need Score: 5/10. Schultz is not a great blocker, so it’s unlikely he’ll have much appeal to this run-first coaching staff. But the Bears need to keep adding weapons in the passing attack and Schultz has shown an ability to find holes in defensive zones. He’s an incredibly productive pass-catching tight end.

2022 Highlights on YouTube: Dalton Schultz 2022-23 Full Season Highlights – YouTube

Draft Network Contract Projection: “The deal will be for four years and worth somewhere in the range of $57.5-58 million for an average annual value between $14.375-14.5 million, making him the second highest-paid tight end in the NFL.”

Analysis: “The question now becomes who among this group becomes the main security blanket for Dak Prescott in 2023? While Schultz has not put up numbers resembling the likes of Travis Kelce or George Kittle, he has become a reliable target in the passing game. Since he arrived in Dallas as a fourth round pick out of Stanford, Schultz has quietly become one of the Cowboys’ biggest weapons on offense.” Read the whole story HERE.

With the first pick and the possibility of getting more selections, all eyes are going to be on the Chicago Bears in Indianapolis this weekend.

In the second year of the Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus regime, we have a better idea of what kind of players the team is looking to add. Beyond just the standard answer they give regarding players who fit the mental makeup they want, the Bears brass reiterated some of the physical attributes for which they are looking.

Here are four things to look for:

Quarterbacks

The Bears once again refused to offer unwavering commitment to Justin Fields as their quarterback and on Tuesday morning Poles made it sound as if the team is keeping its options open.

The door might only be open a crack, but if the Bears weren’t at least considering drafting a quarterback with the first overall pick, there would be no reason not to slam it shut. The idea that they need to make teams think they’re going draft a quarterback simply for leverage doesn’t make any sense. The only team that might panic is Houston, which would be more nervous about the idea the Colts are going to take a quarterback.

Compare it to the Eagles last year who, when rumor about interest in Russell Wilson or drafting a quarterback surfaced, said “there’s no doubt about it” when asked if Jalen Hurts was the team’s future at the position.

Nobody honestly expects the Bears to take a quarterback, but their refusal to say “this is Fields’ team” is weird. When teams are confident in their quarterback, they are almost always willing to broadcast that to the world.

The most likely explanation is that the Bears would be happy going forward with Fields as the quarterback, but would like to see if they can upgrade. There’s nothing wrong with that.

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Team Need Score: 10/10. Hargrave will be 30 years old this season, so he’s not an ideal fit for a young, rebuilding Bears team. But he also had 11 sacks from an interior DL position and if the Bears hope to climb into respectability next season, Hargrave would be a huge step in that direction.

2022 Highlights on YouTube: Javon Hargrave 2022-23 Highlights || HD – YouTube

B/R Contract Projection: “Three years, $61.2 million, $40.25 million guaranteed”

Analysis: “Eagles All-22 Film Review: Javon Hargrave will be greatly missed if he’s not back.” Read the full report HERE.

Team Need Score: 10/10. There is no bigger need for the 2023 Chicago Bears than along the defensive line. They were pushed around weekly in the interior and displayed no pass rush on the outside.

2022 Highlights on YouTube: Daron Payne FULL 2022-23 Season Highlights | PRO BOWLER| 2023 NFL Free Agent |Washington Commanders – YouTube

PFF Contract Projection: “Four years, $80 million ($20M per year), $55 million total guaranteed.”

Analysis: “The cost may be high, but losing defensive tackle Daron Payne is something the Washington Commanders can’t afford.” Read the entire piece HERE.

[Note: Rumors out of D.C. are that the Commanders will tag Payne, making him only available to the Bears via trade.]

Team Need Score: 8/10. The Bears need to make additions at wide receiver, either through free agency or the draft, and Meyers would give them a steady, professional presence in the slot/outside.

2022 Highlights on YouTube: Jakobi Meyers 2022-23 Highlights || HD – YouTube

PFF Contract Projection: “Four years, $64 million ($16M per year), $40 million total guaranteed.”

Analysis: “To Re-Sign Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots Will Need to Place Priority on Proven Production.” Read the full article HERE.

Team Need Score: 7/10. The Bears need to add an offensive tackle in free agency, and expectations are they will leave Braxton Jones on the left side to develop. If they focus on the right side, McGary should be their primary target. McGary will only be 27 to start the season.

2022 Highlights on YouTube:

• Kaleb McGary SHUTS DOWN T.J. Watt | Kaleb McGary (RT – 76) Week 13 Highlights vs PIT – YouTube
• He’s getting PAID this offseason | Kaleb McGary (RT – 76) Week 17 Highlights vs ARZ – YouTube

PFF Contract Projection: “Four years, $52 million ($13M per year); $31 million total guaranteed.”

Analysis: “Ranking the Falcons’ top 10 free agents: Kaleb McGary in line for a big raise.” Read the rest from The Athletic HERE.

In part one, we found that the Bears actually had a respectable pass rush for the first part of the year, but trading Robert Quinn had a profound impact, leaving them with the worst pass rush of any NFL team in the last five years post-trade.

In part two, we found that Trevis Gipson is a quality second defensive end, but only if there is a quality starter opposite him, which the Bears will need to find this offseason.

The Inside Men

The Bears had four defensive tackles with at least 150 pass rush snaps in 2022, and three of them – Armon Watts, Angelo Blackson, and Mike Pennel Jr. – are free agents, so it will be very easy to remake this position substantially if they want to.

The table below shows how those four performed in a variety of per-snap metrics, including how they ranked compared to the 104 defensive tackles league-wide who had at least 150 pass rush snaps. All data comes from Pro Football Focus (PFF). (Side note: Pass Rush Productivity is a unique PFF stat that accounts for all sacks, QB hits, and pressures on a per-snap basis, with an added weight given to sacks; a higher value is better.) Values in the top 25% are highlighted in green, while those in the bottom 25% are highlighted in red.

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In part one, we found that the Bears actually had a respectable pass rush for the first part of the year, but trading Robert Quinn had a profound impact, leaving them with the worst pass rush of any NFL team in the last five years post-trade. Since their pass rush after the trade was so bad, it stands to reason that they need a whole host of new pass rushers. To figure that out a little more clearly, let’s start by looking at who they have returning from last year.

Individual pass rush data is going to come from Pro Football Focus (PFF). They track pressures quite differently than Pro Football Reference, but I think the data is of better quality, so I’m going to use it. PFF doesn’t provide team-wide data, so that is why I used Pro Football Reference data in part one.

What They Have

The Bears had three defensive ends who played meaningful snaps in 2022, and all but the recently cut Al-Quadin Muhammad are under contract for 2023. The table below shows how they performed in a variety of per-snap metrics, including how they ranked compared to the 117 edge rushers league-wide who had at least 150 pass rush snaps. (Side note: Pass Rush Productivity is a unique PFF stat that accounts for all sacks, QB hits, and pressures on a per-snap basis, with an added weight given to sacks; a higher value is better.) Values in the top 25% are highlighted in green, while those in the bottom 25% are highlighted in red.

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Every Bears fan knows the team had a terrible pass rush last year, which is why they have been heavily rumored to be interested in high-priced free agent defensive linemen and highly regarded pass rushers at the top of the draft. But to better understand what the Bears need, let’s first look at exactly how bad they were last year, and what they have returning. That will help figure out exactly what they need to add in order to bring their pass rush up to par in 2023.

Team Pass Rush

All of this data will be pulled from Pro Football Reference, which has advanced statistics going back to 2018. That gives us a sample size of five seasons, or 160 teams.

However, I found that pass rush has varied quite a bit from year to year, with the average pressure rate fluctuating between 22% and 26% and the sack rate between 5.9% and 6.8%. In a simple effort to scale statistics for a between the years comparison, I looked at the sack or pass rush differential. For example, in 2022 the average pressure rate was 22.3%, so a team generating pressure on 23.3% of dropbacks was 1.0% above average, or would have a pressure differential of 1.0%. That same 23.3% would be 2.0% below the 25.3% average in 2021, so it would get a -2.0% pressure differential that year.

The table below shows how the Bears fared in the major pass rush stats compared to all 160 teams since 2018. Areas where they ranked in the top 25% are highlighted in green, while those where they ranked in the bottom 25% are highlighted in red.

As you can see, it’s not pretty. Chicago’s pass rush was among the worst in the NFL over the last five years in every category. This shouldn’t be a shock to anybody who watched the Bears last year.

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It’s a little odd attempting to put together an NFL draft big board for the team with the first overall pick, but with much speculation that the team might trade down, there is a lot to consider.

Obviously, if the Bears stay with the first overall pick, or move down just a couple of spots there are very few players who would be in consideration. But we shouldn’t rule out the possibility of the Bears moving down a couple of times or dealing out of the top ten entirely for a massive haul. There is also the possibility that the team will move up into the back half of the first round, should they acquire enough draft picks to do so.

With that, this board has to be tiered.

• Tier One will be players the team would consider with picks inside the top four.
• Tier Two will be players who would be in consideration from picks 5-10.
• Tier Three will be players the team could consider in the teens.
• Tier Four will be players who they might grab at the end of the first round.

Tier One

1. Will Anderson Jr., DE, Alabama

Anderson seems to check every box a team could want in a prospect. Even in a “down year” this past season, Anderson was among the post productive pass rushers in college football, finishing with 10 sacks and 17 TFLs. By all accounts, he fits the HITS principle and Matt Eberflus’ relationship with Nick Saban should give the Bears good intel.

2. Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

If Anderson is the top player on the board, then Carter is 1A.

Carter didn’t quite have the production teams covet, but his tape shows flashes of a dominant player. Georgia asked him to do different things than the Bears will, but when Carter was asked to simply shoot a gap – which is what the Bears will require of him – he was tough to block.

But there is a question about if he fits the HITS principle. Todd McShay, Mel Kiper Jr. and Dane Brugler have all made mention of Carter’s effort. Will the Bears see it the same way? No idea, but it will be worth investigating.

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