All that matters early in seasons are wins. The rest is noise. Wins matter and the Bears got one yesterday with a brilliant defensive effort. Thoughts on the defense…

• Pick your player on the defensive line. Peppers, Paea, Izzy, Melton, Okoye…etc. They were the stars of this game and their dominance is the reason the Bears are 2-1.
• Is there any doubt Amobi Okoye was crazy to leave the Bears this offseason? He belongs in Lovie’s system.
• Tim Jennings has already met my four interceptions for the season prediction after three games. He’s on his way to the Pro Bowl. (His fourth down play on the Bradford slant attempt was a thing of beauty.)
• Urlacher looked better. Not great but better.
• Lance Briggs looked great.
• Chris Conte is always a few steps late on throws down the sideline. If Gibson makes the back shoulder grab in front of Conte this might have been a different contest.
• Major Wright finds the ball. His health is always a concern but you can’t have enough players who find the ball.
• Peppers can say whatever he likes but his personal foul penalty was the act of an idiot rookie. It could have cost the Bears this game and he should be smarter than that.

Now onto the offense…

• Three things became to clear to me, watching this offensive line play today. (1) J’Marcus Webb is not any good. (2) Gabe Carimi can be a vicious blocker. (3) Chilo Rachal apparently DOES NOT KNOW THE SNAP COUNT. How many times do the Bears let a guy jump before they replace him?
• Catch the ball, receivers. Both Marshall and Jeffery had huge drops in this game.
• That being said, it was fun to watch Marshall and Jeffery win one-on-one battles on the outside when the Bears needed them to do so. Jeffery was uncoverable on the comeback route in the fourth quarter.
• Michael Bush was serviceable but the Bears missed Matt Forte’s explosiveness in the passing game.
• Kellen Davis sightings! Multiple!
• Did any play sum up the Bears day on offense better than Devin Hester’s ill-time leap/ball through his hands moment in the end zone? A silly play call. A poor execution.

It is a solid if unspectacular victory. The offense, especially the offensive coordinator, have a long way to go if this team’s to have a special season. The defense is championship caliber.

Look at mustachioed #24. Bottom row. Last seat to your right.

Three final thoughts on today’s contest:

1. Is this a must win? There really are no must wins when it comes to the third week of the season, are there? This is a should win. If the Bears don’t win today at home they will make the road ahead far more difficult. My five projected losses at the start of the season were at Green Bay, at Dallas, home Houston, at San Fran, at Detroit. If the Bears lose a game like today’s they’ll need to poach one of these trickier games to have truly successful season. (Still I’d be very surprised if they lost today.)
2. Jeff Fisher knows how to coach and Jeff Fisher teams know how to get under the skin of their opponents. Someone needed to be in Jay Cutler’s ear all week, repeating a single mantra: “Smile and play. Smile and play.”
3. Pay close attention to the area surrounding J’Marcus Webb. It will be fascinating to see how much help Mike Tice throws his way. Part of me knows that putting a tight end (Spaeth) at his side or a chipping back (Bush, Bell) behind him is the intelligent move when it comes to scheme. Another part of me wonders if giving Webb constant assistance is the equivalent of placing a bandage on an axe wound.

Bear down.

Picks Contest Side Note: An inordinate number of us have the Bears today. Can’t say I like that.

The Week’s Lines.

Remember:

• You only pick one team against the spread.
• Once you select the team they are unavailable to you for the remainder of the season.
  
• It is NOT a survival pool. The highest winning percentage at Week 15 will be awarded the prize. If there are ties, we’ll decide in Weeks 16 and 17 by increasing the number of games selected incrementally.
  
• You don’t need to pick every week. But you must make ten selections between Week One and Week Fifteen. If you picked in Week One you do not need to pick in Week Two if you don’t like the games.
  
• DO NOT MAKE YOUR SELECTION IN THE BODY OF ANOTHER COMMENT. YOUR SELECTION SHOULD BE IT’S OWN COMMENT AND CONTAIN ONLY THE NAME OF THE TEAM YOU ARE SELECTING. (Otherwise it’s a terrible bitch for me to tally up each week.)
• Picks are due by kickoff of the early games Sunday. Picks will only be accepted in the comments of THIS post.

(Home Team in CAPS)

CHICAGO -7 St. Louis

DALLAS -8 Tampa Bay

San Francisco -7 MINNESOTA

Detroit -3.5 TENNESSEE

WASHINGTON -3 Cincinnati

New York Jets -3 MIAMI

NEW ORLEANS -8.5 Kansas City

Buffalo -3 CLEVELAND

INDIANAPOLIS -3 Jacksonville

Philadelphia -3 ARIZONA

SAN DIEGO -3 Atlanta

(Side note: Both these teams are undefeated and the game will be blacked out in San Diego. Get this team somewhere else, NFL.)

Houston -2 DENVER

Pittsburgh -3.5 OAKLAND

BALTIMORE -3 New England

Currently there are 54 entrants in the picks contest. If you haven’t entered a selection yet you are not ineligible. You simply must make your first selection by Week Five. This week I’m taking Your 2012 Chicago Bears. I wouldn’t have touched it at 9.5 but I like it at 7.

This Bears groups, particularly since Jay Cutler has joined the fray, tends to play to an odd pattern. They are quite fond of playing colossally awful games early in the season and subsequently rebounding as if nothing ever happened. I expect the same Sunday.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.
• They are the better team and better teams punish weaker opponents in their own building. The Bears did not open at 9.5 point favorites for no reason. Vegas knows not to overreact to a single poor performance in the national spotlight.
• I believe in a Cutler rebound game because I honestly believe he has the mentality of a good baseball closer: he puts the last game away once he hits the field. Cutler is not going to eliminate risky throws – that’s how he’s made his reputation both positive and negative – but I expect him to understand this passing attack needs their mojo back and he’ll do everything he can to provide it.
• During Brian Schottenheimer’s tenure as the offensive coordinator of the New York Jets he did not emphasize the down field passing game. (To the point that criticism of the OC dominated the WFAN airwaves for seemingly weeks at a time.) He liked to run the ball up-the-gut and hit defenses with quick strikes on the outside and under the deep coverage.
• I would not watch the first two Rams games to see how they’ll attack the Bears. I would watch the shootout the Jets and Bears played the day after Christmas 2010. But that involved a heavy dose of Dustin Keller controlling the middle of the field. Now Schotty has Matthew Mulligan and if Matthew Mulligan dominates the middle of the field…Brian Urlacher is very, very injured.
• The Rams are allowing nearly 130 yards per game on the ground over the first two weeks of the season and neither the Lions nor Redskins feature particularly great running backs. The Bears will slow down St. Louis’ athletic defensive ends – Robert Quinn & Chris Long – by serving the Rams a steady diet of Michael Bush and (I’d imagine) Kahlil Bell. I expect Bush to have a big time ballgame. (Note: At this point Matt Forte has not been ruled out of action.)
• I like the combination of Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins at corner for the Rams but I think both are beatable over the top. The Bears, especially at home, should take a few shots.
• I think the Bears front will dominate the Rams offensive line and decide this game. 3-5 sacks and a humiliation of left tackle Wayne Hunter by the front. (If Hunter can’t go I’d expect them to do the same with whomever is deemed worse than Wayne Hunter.)

NEW FEATURE ALERT!

Each week in the preview I’ll name a Bear I think will thrive Sunday and a Bear I think will survive Sunday. Thrive/Survive, I call it.

• Thrive: Shea McClellin. I think his speed will eat up Hunter on the left side as Shea announces his arrival to the Bears faithful.
• Survive: Charles Tillman. The Bears tend to let their corners play sides of the field and I’d expect the Rams to keep Danny Amendola away from Tim Jennings – just about the hottest corner in the game currently. That means Peanut will be chasing Amendola’s speed all evening long.

PREDICTION!

This just feels like the kind of game the Bears win. At home. Inferior opponent. Coming off a loss. Extra rest.

Chicago Bears 24, St. Louis Rams 13

Crown took the Monday night bonus by guessing Peyton Manning would throw for 243 yards. He threw for 241, fitting comfortably in the two yards either way window.

Tonight’s bonus is also worth one correct week for the picks contest. All you need to do is give me:

Total Rushing Yards for Cam Newton

Unlike the difficult passing yards prognostication, rushing yards are a bit easier. So you must be within a yard. For instance if you guess 25 you’d be correct on any yardage between 24-26.

Good luck.

I interrupt the now week-long drama of Jay Cutler and “the bump heard ’round the world” with some actual football talk. See, I don’t care that Cutler bumped Webb. Webb doesn’t care that Cutler bumped Webb. And our beautiful media – led by the brilliant folks at the Sun-Times and Tribune – are only harping on the issue because they know it’s Week Two and, really, what the hell else do they have to write about? (Football is a simple game that folks try to over-complicate.)

The left side of the Bears offensive line can’t pass protect. That was THE story coming out of the second week of the season. The coaching staff responded to that fact by exiling Chris Spencer to the Bench Omiyale Built and promoting a fella called Chilo Rachal to the starting unit. Rachal comes over from the San Francisco 49ers and while he had a better-than-average summer in Bourbonnais, his Niners tape is none-too-impressive. To think Rachal’s insertion into the starting lineup will suddenly keep Cutler upright more often would be a bit delusional. To think Rachal might be an improvement over Spencer in the run game is, well, fine. From the tape I’ve watched I don’t see how anyone could be worse in that department. (It’s fair for those of you so inclined to consider Spencer the last true gift of the Jerry Angelo era.)

J’Marcus Webb is now the key. Webb is the protection. Webb will be the point of entry for every defensive coordinator, the remainder of the 2012 season, as long as he continues to struggle. There are two possible tracks, as far as I can see:

1. Webb struggles wildly Sunday against the combination of Robert Quinn and Chris Long and is replaced by either Chris Williams or somebody like Jonathan Scott. This would systematically end the Webb tenure at left tackle in Chicago and more than likely book his ticket elsewhere in the not-so-distant future.
2. Webb plays well against the Rams. Then terribly against the Cowboys. Then well against the Jaguars and so on and so on. Webb’s inconsistency on a week-to-week basis becomes his consistency. This would lead to status quo. Lovie and Tice defending Webb, Cutler barking at him and fans shaking their heads sadly every other Sunday.

How Lovie Smith handles the Webb situation might very well define the 2012 campaign the same way his handling Red Grossman defined the 2006 road to Super Bowl deflation. In the postseason that year Smith was stubbornly loyal to a quarterback who admitted not fully preparing for the final game of the season because, you know, New Year’s Eve happened. Will he continue to show faith in a project left tackle when the remainder of the offense seems so ready to win now?

I don’t know the answer. Smith is hard to predict, especially on the offensive side of the ball. But I know if Cutler finds himself on the turf a couple times in the first half Sunday, I’d like to see a hungry Chris Williams emerge from the tunnel after the intermission.

Wayne Hunter

The Rams lost their starting left tackle Rodger Saffold to an MCL injury against the Redskins. This means Wayne Hunter will be protecting Sam Bradford’s blind side against the Bears Sunday. Do you know about Wayne Hunter? He was arguably the worst player in the NFL in 2011 and this preseason actually got into a physical altercation with fans at MetLife. His response? Here it is from NFL.com:

“They’re like sharks,” Hunter said. “If they don’t like you, they let you know right off the bat. And even if you’re doing good, they might just not like you for the heck of it. It’s brutal over there. Those fans, they know what they want, and they pretty much demand it. So if you don’t give it to them, they’ll let you know.”

They are like sharks. And Wayne Hunter was Chrissie Watkins. (I deplore pop culture references in sports columns but I make exceptions for Jaws.)

Feisty

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post Dispatch profiles the return of feistiness to the Rams. That is why Jeff Fisher was insistent on bringing Cortland Finegan over from Tennessee. Finegan is the biggest pain in the ass in the league.

The Redskins’ comeback try took a major hit when the perpetually aggravating Finnegan turned on his motor mouth to bait Washington wide receiver Josh Morgan into throwing the football at him. The ensuing 15-yard penalty essentially killed Washington’s last-chance drive.

If you saw Fisher’s Tennessee teams play, this is all very familiar. “He exudes confidence, which falls on everyone else,” Jackson said.

Confidence. Physical and mental toughness. A willingness to fight through anything that threatens to pull them down, into that bottomless pit of losing.

It will be imperative for Bears wideouts (cough – Alshon Jeffery – cough) to keep their cool when Finegan goes into ball bust mode.

Bradford

First off, take a few moments to read THIS COLUMN by Bryan Burwell of the Dispatch. Not because of the content but just because it is an excellent piece of writing. Truly excellent and having to suffer what David Haugh churns out in the Trib every couple day it was nice read thoughtful, insightful commentary from a columnist. Here’s the bit on Bradford worth noting:

After watching Bradford make so many brilliant passes, finding so many athletic plays, and displaying so much competitive fire to keep discovering ways to lead his team out of impossible holes and keep producing scoring drives when the Rams needed them most, head coach Jeff Fisher was asked if that essentially was a glimpse into the reason he selected the Rams job over all the others. He answered quickly.

“Yes it is. Yeah, it sure is,” said Fisher. “He was dialed in all week and dialed in today. He and Schotty were on the same page. This is a difficult defense. (Washington defensive coordinator Jim) Haslett does a lot of different things and I thought that we had a great plan and Sam had some answers. He knew where to go with the football.”

Schottenheimer wants to dissect defenses underneath and Bradford is a lethally accurate short-range passer.

Danny “Wes Welker” Amendola

The Rams are not a team that is going to frighten you at wide receiver, proven by Sunday’s 7,872 catch performance by Danny Amendola. But Amendola will now draw the focus of secondaries moving forward:

…setting career highs for catches (15) and receiving yards (160) in the Rams’ 31-28 victory.

Amendola, a fourth-year pro, had never had a 100-yard game before in the NFL. He jump-started the Rams’ first touchdown drive with a 56-yard catch midway through the second quarter — the longest catch of his career. He put the capper on that drive with a 1-yard TD catch from quarterback Sam Bradford with 1 minute 58 seconds to play in the first half.

He was spectacular Sunday.

Pettis Returns to Wide Receiver Role

Austin Pettis had emerged as one of Sam Bradford’s favorite targets this summer. After serving a PED suspension, he returns to the Rams lineup in Chicago.

After serving the final two games of a four-game suspension for violating NFL policy on performance-enhancing substances, Pettis wants to pick up where he left off now that he’s been reinstated.

“I’ve been smiling all morning,” Pettis said Monday, his first day back at Rams Park. “It was just good to see a lot of these guys’ faces. I missed these two weeks going out there and battling, so I’m just excited to get back and fight with them.” It doesn’t usually happen this way with suspensions, but Pettis served the first two games of his punishment at the end of the 2011 season, then finished it off by sitting out the first two games of this season.

During this month’s two-week hiatus, Pettis trained at Emerge Fitness Training in St. Charles.

“I had a couple of (trainers) who were working me out on the field and in the weight room,” Pettis said. “Just trying to keep myself ready. And I stayed in my playbook. I’m just trying to hit the ground running this week.”

For most of the preseason, Pettis was among the Rams’ top three or four wideouts. If he resumes that role, it will be interesting to see how that affects rookies Brian Quick and Chris Givens — who were getting scant playing time as it was. Neither has a catch so far, with Givens targeted three times and Quick once.

If Pettis is active for Sunday’s game in Chicago, it’s possible that Quick or Givens could be inactive if the Rams decide to dress only five wide receivers.

If Pettis suits up he’ll look to make a major impact Sunday as the Rams are desperate for someone to emerge opposite Amendola.

Here’s a fact and it’s borderline indisputable. When the Bears protect their quarterback and their quarterback protects the football, they win. And since 2010, the numbers prove that theory accurate.

The 2010 Chicago Bears lost 6 games. Below is the team followed by the number of sacks and interceptions in the games.

• Giants. 10 sacks. 1 interception.
• Seahawks. 6 sacks. 0 interceptions.
• Redskins. 4 sacks. 4 interceptions for DeAngelo Hall.
• Patriots (in blizzard). 2 sacks. 2 interceptions.
• Packers (last game of year). 6 sacks. 2 interceptions.
• Packers (NFC title game). 2 sacks. 3 interceptions.

The 2011 Chicago Bears lost three games with a healthy Jay Cutler.

• Saints. 6 sacks. 0 interceptions.
• Packers. 3 sacks. 0 interceptions.
• Lions. 3 sacks. 0 interceptions.

The 2012 Chicago Bears have lost one game. Remember it?

• Packers. 7 sacks. 4 interceptions.

First off, the teams. Cutler has lost 10 starts since the beginning of 2010 and 4 of them are to the Green Bay Packers. Second, just look at the numbers. The only loss the Bears have suffered since 2010 wherein they didn’t have either 3 sacks allowed or 3 interceptions was a game where they had 2 of each and it was played in a goddamn blizzard. (Believe me, I was there.) They didn’t throw more picks or get sacked more in the second half of the blizzard game because it was impossible to throw the ball.

I can hear some of you now. “Oh wow, Jeff, great information. If you protect the quarterback and don’t throw picks you win? Shocker.” And you’d be right. But the surprising thing for the Bears is they don’t lose games ANY OTHER WAY since 2010 with a healthy Jay Cutler. In none of their Cutler-started losses since 2010 have the Bears been blown away by an opposing offense. In none of their Cutler-started losses since 2010 have they lost on a fluky special teams touchdown. This group of offensive linemen, led by this quarterback, have a signature method to their maddening madness: they allow folks to hit the quarterback and he throws the ball to the other team.

So one has to wonder because that’s what one does. What would happen if Jay Cutler started tossing the ball over to the sidelines and into the stands? What if Jay Cutler, every time he sensed the line giving way or receivers unable to separate from defensive backs, just ran to his right and chucked into the seats? Just a thought. Moving on.

The Bears have issues. Two of them. They struggle to protect the quarterback. The quarterback has football protection low on his priority list. Everything else facing this team is borderline inconsequential. Struggling pass rush? So be it. Antiquated defensive scheme? Poppycock! Protect the quarterback. Protect the football. Win.

Throughout the season, we’ll be offering you opportunities to win free points for the picks contest. During Monday and Thursday night games we’ll pose one statistical challenge. Meet it and the free win is yours.

Tonight.

Guess the total yards passing Peyton Manning. 

Rules:

1. You don’t need to hit it exact. You must be within 2 yards. If you guess 248, you’d win on yardage from 246-250.
2. Make your selection in ITS OWN COMMENT.
3. Your number must be commented by halftime.
4. If Peyton exits the game for injury in first half, tonight’s contest will be void.

Good luck.