We’re all fixated on Jay Cutler’s every movement.

The first-ever franchise quarterback for the Chicago Bears has been defined by often spectacular touchdowns and even more spectacular interceptions. He delivers media interviews with an uncommonly smug, dry sense of humor that some of us love and some of us hate. Occasionally he shoves a lineman. His lady friend was on a TV show or something. His baby is named after the most dangerous city in New Jersey – Camden. But perhaps, just perhaps, ’tis time we alter our fixation. At least for an evening.

Remember when Phil emery acquired, er, stole Brandon Marshall from the Miami Dolphins? Remember how you felt when Jay Glazer broke the story on Twitter? It was a landmark day for this Bears franchise. It was the official end of the Jerry Angelo tenure as GM. Finally a true number one receiver had come to town. Finally the Bears had the type of big threat on the outside to occupy hours of attention in the defensive meeting rooms of their opponents. Finally the Bears had a receiver who would not be pushed around by the league’s top corners. Finally Jay Cutler had been reunited with his favorite receiver.

Then Green Bay happened. The Packers sat their best corner in front of Marshall and kept a safety involved almost all night. The coaching staff was perplexed. Cutler was errant. Marshall was Muhsin Muhammad.

Monday night in Dallas the Bears will face what is currently one of the best defenses in the NFL. They’ve got what are arguably the best pair of starting corners in the game – Carr and Claiborne. And the the great DeMarcus Ware will undoubtedly beat the Bears offensive line a few times, forcing Cutler to make a throw or five prior to his wishes. I have heard far too much analysis from fans and media along the lines of, “The Bears will struggle to make plays in the passing game” and “This defense will shut the Bears down on the outside.” That kind of analysis was accurate when the number one receiver WAS Muhammad or Johnny Knox or Brandon Lloyd or Marty Booker or Marcus Robinson or David Terrell or whomever the hell the Bears lined up outside.

Marshall is meant to be different and its against these types of defenses, these types of corners we expect Marshall to thrive. We’ve had our #1s go into a dark cave and hide against the best. We’ve never had one step into the arena and battle – the way Marshall always seemed to battle Darrelle Revis in the AFC East (see video above). Monday night is the night for Brandon Marshall win his one-on-ones and usher the Bears to a signature early-season victory.

How about it, Brandon?

Our rooting interests:

1. We definitely want to see a Saints rebirth at Lambeau Field. It’s a long shot, however, because the Saints are proving one of my NFL theories: teams are better with a head coach.
2. You make the decision on who to root for when it comes to Vikings v. Lions. I’ll be perfectly honest. I don’t know which team is better. I think it might be the Vikings.
3. Here’s one out of left field: Rams over Seahawks. Just because Pete Carroll is such an ass and because we don’t want the season injured by the Seahawks making the postseason due to their Monday night win.

Enjoy a nerveless day.

The Prize Reminder.

You’ll be invited as special guest of DaBearsBlog to this year’s Round One Draft Party on Thursday night, April 25th at Cortland’s Garage in Bucktown. The prize includes:

• Accommodation for draft night at The Willows Hotel, Lakeview. To see the hotel, CLICK HERE. I’ll also be in the hotel and will gladly take you for a drink at the local spot Monsignor Murphy’s if you so choose.
• DaBearsBlog will cover the open bar for you and a +1 at the event.
• $50 gift certificate for you/wife/husband/family to any of the Lou Malnati’s locations across the Chicagoland area.
• Two automatic entries into the ticket contest giveaway that evening. (We’ll announce the particular game and details once the schedule is released next spring.)
• A pair of 2012 DaBearsBlog tee-shirts.

The Week’s Lines.

Remember:

• You only pick one team against the spread.
• Once you select the team they are unavailable to you for the remainder of the season.
  
• It is NOT a survival pool. The highest winning percentage at Week 15 will be awarded the prize. If there are ties, we’ll decide in Weeks 16 and 17 by increasing the number of games selected incrementally.
  
• You don’t need to pick every week. But you must make ten selections between Week One and Week Fifteen. If you picked in Week One you do not need to pick in Week Two if you don’t like the games.
  
• DO NOT MAKE YOUR SELECTION IN THE BODY OF ANOTHER COMMENT. YOUR SELECTION SHOULD BE IT’S OWN COMMENT AND CONTAIN ONLY THE NAME OF THE TEAM YOU ARE SELECTING. (Otherwise it’s a terrible bitch for me to tally up each week.)
• Picks are due by kickoff of the early games Sunday. Picks will only be accepted in the comments of THIS post.

(Home team in CAPS)

New England -4 BUFFALO

ATLANTA -7 Carolina

San Francisco -4 NEW YORK JETS

KANSAS CITY -1 San Diego

HOUSTON -12 Tennessee

Seattle -2.5 ST. LOUIS

ARIZONA -6 Miami

DENVER -6.5 Oakland

Cincinnati -1.5 JACKSONVILLE

GREEN BAY -7.5 New Orleans

TAMPA BAY -3 Washington

PHILADELPHIA -2 New York Giants

I’m off to a flying 3-0 start and on pace to keep y’all from claiming these delicious prizes. (Maybe I’ll share the pizza with one or two of you.) I think Harbaugh’s Niners are coming to Jersey pissed off and I can’t see how the Jets move the ball against this defense when motivated. I’ll lay the four with San Francisco.

My game preview was pretty good a week ago (feel free to go take a look). I thought the Bears defensive line would dominate the game and they went out and did it. I am NOT as confident this week. But I know one thing: I’m taking the under at 41.5.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.
• I like what Cam Worrell said regarding this being a schematic mismatch favoring the Chicago Bears. The Bears should play this game in their strict cover-2 and dare the Cowboys to run the ball all night long.
• I’m at a point where I WANT opposing quarterbacks to attack our corners, especially Tim Jennings. He’s simply playing the position as well as anyone in the league right now.
• If you saw the Cowboys play the Bucs, one thing became apparent: the Bears front should dominate for the second straight week.
• The Cowboys defense can play. They’ve got two terrific corners (Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne) and perhaps the best pass rusher in the sport (DeMarcus Ware). Expect defensive coordinator Rob Ryan to attack J’Marcus Webb and the Bears should be prepared for that from SNAP ONE. Don’t sacrifice a drive or two before making adjustments.
• Matt Forte is the key to the game. Without question. The Bears need to slow the Cowboys rush with the run game and counter their over-aggression with screens.
• I’d like to see Brandon Marshall win his one-on-ones and dominate the way he dominated Darrelle Revis last year when with the Dolphins. Marshall isn’t a good receiver. He’s a great receiver. He needs to play like one Monday night. (More on this Monday.)
• Field position will be key and Adam Podlesh kicked the ball far better against the Rams. Give the Cowboys long fields and Romo will give the Bears the ball.
• Dallas acquiring former Bills punter Brian Moorman is cause for concern. Moorman struggled this summer but he’s been one of the most reliable punters in the game for years. His directional kicking has been astounding over his career and he may be able to keep punts out of Hester’s hands.
• Per Zach Zaidman: “In 8 career Monday Night Football games, Devin Hester has 6 touchdowns (3 PR, 2 KR, 1 receiving).” You think Skunk likes the primetime? He’s waiting for THAT moment.
• I expect the Cowboys to release Jason Witten over the middle repeatedly to test Brian Urlacher in space. Witten has had a terrible start to the year but I don’t think the Cowboys can ignore a not full strength Urlacher.
• I do think DeMarco Murray will have success running the ball at times. The Bears are not great against the run. They are good. If Dallas gets a lead the Bears will struggle to get them off the field.
• This is a big game for Jay Cutler. Undeniable. He has struggled against premiere opponents, struggled in prime time and struggled when under duress. He needs to step under the Arlington lights and deliver his team a victory. He needs an 18-21, 240 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interception performance to steady the quarterbacking ship in Chicago.

THRIVE & SURVIVE!

• Thrive: Jay Cutler will avoid the top two corners whenever possible and Earl Bennett will have a terrific game in the slot against Jenkins, Scandrick or whomever he sees.
• Survive: Kevin Ogletree has not been the player who made that sterling debut on opening Wednesday night in the Meadowlands but he is capable of big games every weekend. DJ Moore will have the difficult task of keeping him silent.

BOLD STATISTICAL PREDICTIONS

• Jay Cutler will have more than 25 yards rushing the football.
• Kellen Davis will have 4 catches, 58 yards and a touchdown.
• Julius Peppers will have 2.5 sacks.

FINAL SCORE

Two terrific defenses and capable-yet-currently-sputtering offenses. I think both trends continue.

Chicago Bears 16, Dallas Cowboys 13

You have all failed miserably in your attempts to take advantage of the picks contest bonuses. Tonight I offer you, because I am a nice guy, another opportunity.

Tonight…

• I want the total number of rushing yards for the Cleveland Browns. Not just Trent Richardson but the entire team.
• Make your selection in its own comment, not in the body of another comment.
• I’ll give it to you if you’re within one yard. So if you guess 70 yards, you’ll be fine with anything from 69-71.
• Pick must be in by kickoff.

Enjoy a nice bit of the AFC North and the first ever time referees will be applauded in the history of athletics.

I don’t do a lot of film analysis on this site because, quite frankly, you can get that stuff from better sources. But watching the All-22 tape of the Bears v. Rams, I couldn’t get enough of Major Wright’s interception. I literally couldn’t stop watching it because it was a brilliant, complete defensive effort. First, watch it again:

Ain’t it a thing of beauty? Here’s what I love.

• 0:06 How fast does Stephen Paea erupt in the middle of the defensive line? By the time Sam Bradford takes a step back, Paea is almost thru both the center AND right guard. If Paea continues to play like this there is no limit to how good the Bears defense can be.
• 0:08 The backside of the play is brilliantly covered. Neither Rams receiver has an inch of separation on Peanut or DJ Moore. Bradford looks over there for an instant – most likely to draw defensive attention away from his intentions – but there’s nothing to see.
• 0:09 I don’t know if Bradford’s vision was impaired but Corey Wootton does an excellent job driving Wayne Hunter into the quarterback’s line of sight. The window for him to throw the ball is tiny because of Wootton’s jump on the outside.
• 0:10 Tim Jennings. There is no chance for Danny Amendola to catch this ball because Jennings not only shoves him off his route but he also muscles around him to reach the ball first. I can’t remember the last time I’ve fallen in love with a player as unexpectedly as I’ve fallen in love with Jennings at corner.
• 0:10 Lance Briggs delivers a vicious, LEGAL hit to Amendola that deserves attention. Watch the hit. Amendola flies two yards in the air. If Danny had caught the pass, he wasn’t catching another one Sunday.
• 0:12 Look at where Stephen Paea is! He has come back to the second level after the pass was thrown and begins sprinting to make potential blocks for Major Wright. Re-watch the entire play and never take your eyes off #92. You’ll enjoy it.
• 0:21 Major Wright does a silly dance

It was the game-winning play and it was a complete defensive effort with contributions from each level

Picks Contest Bonus Alert: There will be a bonus for tonight’s Thursday night affair. Post will arrive on site at 5 PM CT.

Why does it feel like we’re constantly waiting a month to play these games? It isn’t factual but it certainly feels that. If you haven’t had a chance to to listen to former Bears safety Cameron Worrell, do yourself a favor a check it out. He’s got some really interesting stuff to say. CLICK HERE to listen now.

REPLACEMENT REFS REPLACED

It is seemingly over but never to be forgotten. (I have been trying to make #Remember924 happen on Twitter but I seem to be failing.) I’ll put a bow on the replacement referee era by citing the best piece on the issue written in the country. It is from Sam Mellinger in the Kansas City Star:

This NFL referee lockout has raced past annoyance, blown past scandal, and has now become the cardinal sin that sports leagues previously reached only by cancelling the World Series or entire seasons:

They’re making fans feel stupid for being fans.

And that’s unforgiveable. We don’t ask much as sports fans, and good thing, because in most ways the game is rigged against us. The most passionate of us care more than we should and probably more than is financially responsible. But we do it because it feels good, because that’s what our fathers did, and that’s what our friends do and at some point it becomes more than just liking a team or sport and more about liking this part of our life we can’t imagine giving up.

And then a league that already prints money fights over the equivalent of chewing gum money and reminds us how silly we all are for caring this much about what is transparently a cold-hearted business.

Fans give so much to their sports. Time. Energy. Money. In return we ask to not be taken advantage of, not be embarrassed, not made to feel silly for the investment.

(then)

Laughter is our best way to cope, after all.

It’s just that here, it feels like the joke is on us. Shame on the NFL for letting it go this far.

So it ends. One of the lowest moments in the history of this great league.

INJURIES PILING UP IN THE BEARS BACKFIELD

Here are a bunch of Tweets from Vaughn McClure of the Tribune. (No, but really, Twitter is not keeping folks away from the newspaper sites. It’s really not.)

1. Evan Rodriguez sprained his MCL on the opening kickoff vs. Rams,tried to play through,then pulled himself out.

2. “I’m lucky it wasn’t a lot worse,” Rodriguez said of the knee injury. He hopes to be back for Jacksonville but wants to be smart about it.

3. Unsure bout Michael Bush’s practice status, but word is he has a shoulder injury (AC joint). Bush wouldn’t confirm it when I approached him.

What is the Bears backfield going to look like Monday night in Dallas? Matt Forte and Michael Bush each participated in practice Wednesday so here’s hoping the Bears are not relying on Bell/Allen to keep DeMarcus Ware from wrecking the game.

GOSSELIN: COWBOYS LACKING AT TIGHT END

Jason Witten has been one of the best tight ends in the NFL for a decade. He’s an old school tight end because he can throw a block as well as most starting guards in the league. But his game has noticeably slipped over these first three game and, unfortunately for the Cowboys, that has coincided with the emergence of Martellus Bennett in New Jersey. From arguably the best daily football writer in the country, Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News:

What explains Martellus Bennett’s emergence in NY? A lucky couple of catches or do you think the coaching staff up there has gotten him to focus?

Gosselin: The Giants made a commitment to Bennett, something the Cowboys never did. The Giants also are a team that wants to run the ball and Bennett has few peers as a blocker at the tight end position. New York was the right fit, the right situation for Bennett. Shame on the Cowboys for never tapping into the talent Bennett now has on display in New York.

Witten has only three catches over three games and I’ve seen half a dozen drops on the highlights alone. Will he be able to find the space in the zone defense and reboot his 2012 campaign or will the Bears send another “it’s over” message to possible Hall of Famer Monday night.

Former Bears safety Cameron Worrell joins me for a terrific discussion on replacement refs, how the Packers defenders will handle the Monday night debacle, Chris Conte’s early-career technique issues, how 2012 Tim Jennings compares to 2005 Nathan Vasher and Brian Urlacher’s status in the middle of the Bears defense. He also previews the upcoming matchup between the Bears secondary and the big, physical wideouts for the Cowboys.

We love Cam around here and are thrilled he’ll be joining us throughout the season with his perspective on the Bears defense. I don’t know want these to be interviews. I want them to be conversations. And we’ll get there. I think this is a great premiere.

(We had some tech difficulties with our first attempt.)

Quick: what do Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Tom Brady have in common?

There are two acceptable answers. (1) Each leads one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL and (2) each has executed one system/vision for the entirety their entire tenure with their current team. Aaron Rodgers spent a few years learning the Mike McCarthy system prior to playing in it for the Green Bay Packers. Drew Brees and Sean Payton arrived in Booze Disneyland together in 2006 and haven’t stopped scoring since. (Notice what the absence of Payton has done to the offense.) Eli Manning had Kevin Gilbride as his quarterbacks coach before Gilbride took over as the full-time offensive coordinator in 2007. (The winning started almost immediately after.) Tom Brady has had a cavalcade of thirty-something coordinators go on to fail at Notre Dame, the Denver Broncos, the St. Louis Rams, Tyler Chicken…etc. But each of those coordinators does the bidding of one Mr. William Stephen Belichick.

Jay Cutler has played three seasons and three games for the Chicago Bears. One season with Ron Turner, an unmitigated twenty-six interception disaster. Two seasons with Mike Martz, a mixed bag of seven-step drops and sideline F bombs.  Now Mike Tice is the offensive coordinator but Jeremy Bates – the ghost of Broncos past – is “coordinating” the passing game. One can criticize the play-calling and approach of Turner and Martz but one would have a hard time arguing they were not coordinators with distinct systems and unique visions for how to run an offense. Succeed or fail, we knew what the Bears offense was under both men.

After three games of the 2012 campaign it is not the struggle of the left tackle to block everyone that concerns me. J’Marcus Webb is not very good and I don’t believe he’s going to get considerably better. It is not the lazy decision making by the quarterback that’s bothersome. Jay Cutler is who he is and he’ll have far more good days than bad. I am not even overly worried about the growing trend of dropped footballs by Marshall, Jeffery and Devin Hester – though if it continues I will be.

The concern, if that’s the appropriate word to use in Week Three, is I would not have an answer to the question, “What is the Mike Tice/Jeremy Bates approach to offensive football?” What is their system? What is their vision? How do they want to move the football? What I’ve seen through three games is a team that wants to run the ball but doesn’t do so with much purpose. (Yesterday’s thirty carries almost seemed to be given begrudgingly.) They want to make big plays down the field but struggle to block it. (If you want to see a team overly committed down the field, watch the Baltimore Ravens play. I think Cam Cameron’s playbook is wholly contained on a bar napkin.) The slants to Brandon Marshall I thought would dominate on Sundays have yet to be seen. The comeback route to Alshon Jeffery I never expected has become the reliable fourth-quarter go to call. I’ve got a hundred tiles on my Scrabble rack but for the life of me I can’t spell any words.

There are a multitude of reasons Mike Tice and Jeremy Bates MUST be the men to stabilize the offensive brain trust for the Chicago Bears.

• First and foremost it is becoming very apparent to me that Lovie Smith is growing as a head coach and his defensive staff is second-to-none in this NFL. Henry Melton, Stephen Paea, Corey Wootton? Are any defensive coaches in this league doing a finer job developing young defensive linemen? The defensive system is sound and he’s the right man to lead this group. (I’m confident Phil Emery agrees.)
• Cutler gets into trouble when he doesn’t know where to go with the football. Watch Rodgers, Brady and Eli closely. They know where they’re going with the ball a second or two after they’ve taken the snap and they bench receivers who don’t get to their spots. This passing game needs to get smoother. It needs to feel less random. It needs to rely more on timing and less on the quarterback freelancing in the pocket. That is coaching.
• The Bears simply can’t bring in a fourth coordinator to work with Cutler and expect anything other than half a season of struggles as the QB/coordinator get acquainted with one another. And this is not a league/division where the Bears can continually afford eight games of struggle.

There are new offensive and passing game coordinators. There are two new receivers and a new short-yardage running back. There is no reason to panic about the state of the offense in Chicago because it would be delusional to believe these pieces would all naturally fall into place over the course of a single offseason. Reuniting a quarterback and receiver in a new system is the equivalent of reuniting a divorced couple in a new town, new house and with new children. Their chemistry may still be dynamite but the structure of their existence has been entirely altered.

The Bears go to Dallas Monday night, into the sport’s premiere facility, in front of an electric crowd. It is unfair to expect the defense to shut down the Cowboys as brilliantly as they did the Rams Sunday at home. (And it would apparently be unfair to ask the NFL to stop sending the Bears into hostile prime time environments.) They’ll then travel to Jacksonville to face quite arguably the best running back in the sport pound-for-pound, Maurice Jones-Drew. Possession of the football will be a hot commodity in the Florida sun. They’ll follow these two games with fourteen days before hosting the Detroit Lions on Monday night, October 22.

That’s when the run begins. The run to the postseason for a team talented enough to make it there. In order to do so Mike Tice, Jeremy Bates and Jay Cutler must answer one simple question: what are the Chicago Bears on offense? If they don’t answer that question, they’ll be answering another one: why is a team this talented watching football at Buffalo Wild Wings in January?

Dropping this onto the site a bit early tonight. Received some emails complaining that folks don’t know about the bonus rounds and it’s unfair. So here it is…

It is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL and we need a big Seahawks effort to put a game between the Bears and the Packers.

Here’s the picks contest bonus.

1. First, the Seahawks have to win. If the Packers win there will be no bonus awarded tonight. (That’s how we do things.)
2. Guess the number of completions for Russell Wilson. That’s it. Just guess the number of passes Wilson will complete to people.
3. As always, make your selection in its own comment. Do not include the selection in the body of a separate comment.

You have to nail this one. No wiggle room. And these bonuses will be a hot commodity because there are several people – including myself – who’ve opened the year 3-0 in the picks contest.