We’re up a little early today as I’m in New Haven, Connecticut and won’t be getting to a computer before the game. Here are my final three points:

• This is a match-up of the league’s worst offense and one of the league’s best defenses. The only reason the Bears lose today is if they turn the ball over. Repeatedly.
• I was in the building the last time the Bears played the Jags and it’s one of the weirdest fan bases in the league. They literally cheer first downs with plastic chains and  a “Move the Chains” thing they yell. It’s comical and they don’t seem to like football much. Must be the weakest home field advantage in the sport and I’d expect 15,000 Bears fans to be in attendance. (My brother reports from Jax that the building will have more available seats that normal due to an influx of Chicago’s finest fans.)
•  Who will be the stud defensive lineman this week? It was Paea against the Rams. Melton against the Cowboys. I say this is Shea McClellin’s afternoon.

Bear down.

Two personal announcements:

First, our love to Murph and his wife as they suffer through some difficult medical issues. I got to meet Murph at the Draft Party in April and it was one of my highlights of the night. He’s a great guy and I hope they pull through this.

Second, our love to my dear friend Margot Reilly Campbell and her new husband, actor and Chicago Bears diehard Christopher Denham. I love them both and I’m proud to be part of their ceremony Saturday as a, you guessed it, Bridesman. No new post on tomorrow. Game thread will be up early Sunday.

_______________________________________

THIS IS THE FINAL OPPORTUNITY YOU’LL HAVE TO MAKE YOUR FIRST PICK. ANYONE WHO HAS NOT MADE A PICK IN THE PICKS CONTEST BY SUNDAY WILL BE INELIGIBLE TO WIN THE PRIZE.

The Prize Reminder.

You’ll be invited as special guest of DaBearsBlog to this year’s Round One Draft Party on Thursday night, April 25th at Cortland’s Garage in Bucktown. The prize includes:

• Accommodation for draft night at The Willows Hotel, Lakeview. To see the hotel, CLICK HERE. I’ll also be in the hotel and will gladly take you for a drink at the local spot Monsignor Murphy’s if you so choose.
• DaBearsBlog will cover the open bar for you and a +1 at the event.
• $50 gift certificate for you/wife/husband/family to any of the Lou Malnati’s locations across the Chicagoland area.
• Two automatic entries into the ticket contest giveaway that evening. (We’ll announce the particular game and details once the schedule is released next spring.)
• A pair of 2012 DaBearsBlog tee-shirts.

The Week’s Lines.

Remember:

• You only pick one team against the spread.
• Once you select the team they are unavailable to you for the remainder of the season.
• It is NOT a survival pool. The highest winning percentage at Week 15 will be awarded the prize. If there are ties, we’ll decide in Weeks 16 and 17 by increasing the number of games selected incrementally.
• You don’t need to pick every week. But you must make ten selections between Week One and Week Fifteen. If you picked in Week One you do not need to pick in Week Two if you don’t like the games.
• DO NOT MAKE YOUR SELECTION IN THE BODY OF ANOTHER COMMENT. YOUR SELECTION SHOULD BE IT’S OWN COMMENT AND CONTAIN ONLY THE NAME OF THE TEAM YOU ARE SELECTING. (Otherwise it’s a terrible bitch for me to tally up each week.)
• Picks are due by kickoff of the early games Sunday. Picks will only be accepted in the comments of THIS post.

(Home team in CAPS)

Atlanta -3 WASHINGTON

PITTSBURGH -3 Philadelphia

Green Bay -7 INDIANAPOLIS

NEW YORK GIANTS -8.5 Cleveland

MINNESOTA -5.5 Tennessee

CINCINNATI -3 Miami

Baltimore -6 KANSAS CITY

CAROLINA -3 Seattle

Chicago -4.5 JACKSONVILLE

NEW ENGLAND -6.5 Denver

SAN FRANCISCO -9.5 Buffalo

NEW ORLEANS -4 San Diego

My pick: none. I don’t like the board this week so I’m staying away.

The Bears have a brilliant opportunity to enter the bye at 4-1 and set the stage for a big season. They can’t lose Sunday and they won’t.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.

THE OPPONENT: STATISTICS OF NOTE

• Jacksonville has the league’s worst offense in terms of yardage gained and the second-worst offense in terms of points scored.
• They have the 26th ranked defense in terms of yardage allowed and the 21st in terms of points allowed.
• Even on an offense that bad, the great Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging 4.9 yards a carry.
• Jeremy Mincey (above), a defensive end the Bears tried to acquire this off-season, has been held without a sack through four games.

THE ANALYSIS

• This is an opponent tailor made for the Bears. They have registered only two quarterback sacks on the year while surrendering twelve. If Mel Tucker has to be creative (blitzes) to try and hit Cutler, he’ll end up leaving the middle of the field wide open.
• I see one flaw in the Bears defense: guarding the slot receiver on the go (9) routes. Chris Conte seems a bit slow to the ball and both Gibson (Rams) and Bryant (Cowboys) exploited the Bears secondary from that position.
• After giving MJD only 13 carries against the Bengals last week, head coach Mike Mularkey expressed regret. I expect 25-30 for the back.
• If you read this site regularly you know how big a fan I am of Justin Blackmon. I think he can be one of the best receivers in the sport and his physicality will be a challenge for Jennings, Tillman or whomever is lined up across from him.
• Blaine Gabbert is a dump off machine, especially to MJD, Greg Jones and tight end Marcedes Lewis. Mularkey’s offenses want to dink and dunk you to death and I don’t see that approach working against this ferocious Bears defense.
• I expect their performance in Dallas will give the Bears offensive line a tremendous confidence boost. That especially goes for J’Marcus Webb, who looked technically sound Monday night. I expect protection to be solid this week.
• And when protection is solid I think the Bears can throw the ball on anybody in the league. I think the Bears will do just enough in the run game to keep the Jaguars safeties honest and attack them successfully on the outside. I think this passing game is going to look its best Sunday.

SURVIVE/THRIVE

• Survive: Brian Urlacher. I wrote about it Wednesday. You can read that piece by CLICKING HERE.
• Thrive: Brandon Marshall. I choose to believe Marshall’s Monday night outing was a coming out party and he’ll salivate at the site of AJ Green shredding the Jaguars secondary. I expect Marshall to dominate.

BOLD STATISTICAL PREDICTIONS

• Maurice Jones-Drew will be held to 77 yards rushing.
• Adam Podlesh will average over 46 yards per punt against his former franchise.
• The average starting field position for the Jaguars will be their own 17 yard line.

RESULT

If the Bears had a tough game next week I would subscribe to the trap game theory. But knowing they have a week off will allow the Jaguars to hold their focus. I just can’t see the Jags scoring very much on what is currently the best defense in the league.

Chicago Bears 30, Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Y’all are goin’ need get ya some of these here bonus points because myself, Grogan and Crown are showing no mercy in the picks contest. I will publish a full standings next week as we attempt to pass time during the bye week. (We’ll also be putting the next round of tee shirts on sale so stay tuned with your credit card numbers on the ready.)

Rooting Interest?

The Rams. (1) I like Jeff Fisher and I have never rooted against one of his teams when not playing the Bears. (2) We want the Cardinals to put some losses in the bank. I think the Niners will win that division and the Bears may very well find themselves competing with Arizona for a wildcard slot. (Competing with the Rams is no big deal now that we have a win over them in the bank.)

Picks Contest Bonus

• Total points. You nail the number on the button and you’ll be credited with a good week. I want the number, the exact number, of points scored by the Cardinals and Rams tonight.
• If you nail the bonus, I’ll let you replace any of your wrong weeks with it. This means I’ll allow you to put a team back on the board.

Good luck.

I am really enjoying these. Hopefully you folks are as well.

On this week’s show Cam discusses: how Dez Bryant got open down the field Monday night, the mechanics of playing the quarterback as a safety in the Lovie defense, the “learning curve” for a young player in this particular system, Henry Melton playing three-technique better than any player has under Lovie (including Tommie Harris), why Maurice Jones-Drew’s Tweet will have little impact on the ballgame and why Jacksonville won’t put the game on their young quarterback Sunday.

The best part of the discussion? Worrell had two sacks in his career, including one of Brett Favre in the infamous final game of the 2006 season. We have fun with it.

Brian Urlacher is a week from the bye. A week from giving his knee a much needed sabbatical from the rigors of an NFL campaign. Fitting that he’s now preparing for his sternest test of 2012.

What, you say? How can the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars, the league’s worst offense through four games, present a greater test for Urlacher than the high-flying Green Bay Packers and supremely-talented Dallas Cowboys? Three reasons:

1. After a messy game plan from Jags head coach Mike Mularkey Sunday (get used to those, Jacksonville), only handing the ball to Maurice Jones-Drew 13 times, Mularkey has pledged to rectify the issue. The Bears have not faced an opponent truly committed to the run for four quarters yet but they should expect one in northern Florida Sunday. That means Urlacher will have to shed blockers and hit the holes or MJD will end up in one-one-ones with Chris Conte.
2. Blaine Gabbert is being brought along slowly and that has translated to an abundance of screens. Sunday Gabbert completed 9 of his 23 passes to MJD and fullback Greg Jones. The week previous Gabbert completed 4 of his 10 passes to the two backs. Urlacher’s most definitive strength has been his ability to run sideline-to-sideline faster than any other linebacker in the game. The Jags’ screen game will have him running.
3. Gabbert also has a solid tight end safety valve in Marcedes Lewis. After watching Jason Witten basically own the middle of the field Monday night, I’d imagine Mularkey will release Lewis behind the linebackers and give Gabbert quick, easy throws.

Again, this is not a good offense. They are statistically the worst in the sport. But they do have strengths and those strengths – Jones-Drew, screen game, tight end – each will target the middle linebacker in Lovie Smith’s cover-2 system. And until his number is retired at Soldier Field, that means Brian Urlacher.

It was the most important two-minute stretch of the Bears v. Cowboys Monday nighter. DeMarcus Ware forced a Jay Cutler fumble and gave the Cowboys terrific field position as they trailed 17-7. A touchdown means Game On. A field goal puts all the pressure on the Bears offense. Instead Lance Briggs went sprinting into the end zone. Let’s break down both plays.

Here’s the video:

THE CUTLER FUMBLE

• 0:02.  DeMarcus Webb uses no technique to beat J’Marcus Webb to the outside. He simply runs around him. And Webb doesn’t do a terrible job on the play.
• 0:03. What causes Cutler to slide from the pocket is NOT the pressure from Ware. It is the a stunt blitz from Dallas linebacker Victor Butler that blows up the play. Gabe Carimi actually does a nice job picking Butler up but Butler’s presence cause Cutty to slide to his right, directly into Ware’s path.
• 0:27. You realize why that slide is pivotal as Dane Sanzenbacher crosses the screen, open. If Cutler were able to spend a second more in the pocket, he would have 10-15 yards in front of him.
• 0:03. Go back to to the live play. You want to find that second? Brandon Carr roughs up Dane Sanzenbacher (after five yards, should have been penalized) just enough to slow down his route. Without that contact, Cutler would have seen a free Great Dane and most likely made the throw earlier.
• 0:45. Great hustle by Butler AGAIN to recover the fumble. If he’s not alert as the ball comes free, Matt Forte is going to collect it for the Bears.

THE BRIGGS INTERCEPTION

• 1:14. The Bears defensive line is playing at a level I’ve not seen them play during the Lovie Smith era. Three of the four defensive linemen get a significant push, with Melton and Peppers absolutely destroying the offensive linemen in front of them.
• 1:16. If Romo turns to his left, he has DeMarco Murray standing alone in the flat. And I mean no-defensive-player-for-ten-yards alone. And it’s not a breakdown situation. The screen is built into the design as a last resort and Romo has to go there with the ball. These are the types of bad decisions FORCED BY PRESSURE.
• 1:15. I took out a stopwatch and timed how long is takes Melton to hit Romo from the snap. 2.7 seconds. When that is the case, the only possible passes to complete are quick screens and slants. Melton makes the play of the game.
• 1:48. There are two large offensive linemen in front of Briggs when he makes the catch and he Walter Paytons em! Look at that juke move Briggsy uses and look at his speed as he accelerates down the field.
• 1:37 & 1:41. Look at the joy on the faces of Brian Urlacher and Lovie Smith. These guys live on turnovers and scoring. Plays like that one has to remind them of being kids in the schoolyard and it’s refreshing for a fan to see.
• 1:52. I don’t know if Lawrence Vickers (#47) or DeMarco Murray could actually bring Briggs down before the end zone but they never got the opportunity because of the tremendous hustle of Tim Jennings – my new favorite Bear. Jennings tracks with Briggs, completely shifts Vickers off the pace and then holds up a charging Murray.

Two fascinating plays. Two minutes that changed the entire game.

Thanks to Doug Easterwood (the great FQD1911) for the photograph above. He sent a bunch and I’ll try to work them in as the work progresses. I’ll be re-watching the game later today and should have some more specific thoughts. Here is the first round.

PREGAME.

• Chris Williams was inactive last night. One has to wonder how much longer he’ll be on this roster as it’s clear Mike Tice has no interest in him as a player.

OFFENSE.

• DeMarcus Ware did not wreck the game and all the credit must go to Mike Tice and J’Marcus Webb. They both did a magnificent job scheming the pass rusher out of the game.
• I take full credit for that Brandon Marshall performance. I called for it and I got. That is what a number one receiver is meant to do.
• And while I’m sure the Chicago media will focus on Cutler walking away from Tice on the sideline, I’ll focus on the excellent on-field performance from the quarterback. Cutler did everything we were meant to see from Romo. He extended plays with his legs and was deadly accurate doing so. He also refrained from throwing the dangerous ball in traffic.
• How could Roberto Garza and Chilo Rachal not block Sean Lee on that screen over the middle? That was the most pathetic play made by this offensive line in a while.
• How about we retire silly plays involving Devin Hester? If he wants to be a more integral part of the offense, great. Line him up at receiver, give him routes to run and throw him passes. No more of these plays that involve him running fifteen yards behind the quarterback.
• Courageous and dangerous effort from Matt Forte last night. I was 50/50 on it. Most of the time I was a nervous mother, hoping he’d be able to walk back to the sideline. Still, it was noble.
• Kellen Davis sighting! Without Duke of Earl out there the Bears needed Davis to step up over the middle and he did.
• Hester’s double move on Morris Claiborne was a thing of beauty.

DEFENSE.

• They were brilliant. All of them.
• But it certainly seemed on the initial viewing that Henry Melton was an unstoppable force in the middle of the defensive line. Paea last week. Melton this week. How good, young and deep is this defensive line?
• Brian Urlacher is slow to the sidelines but he has a nice burst through the hole in the run game. He’s coming back and I saw that last night.
• How does Major Wright ALWAYS find the football? Always!
• Chris Conte is going to get burned on a deep ball. It is going to happen. I’m going to ask Cam Worrell about him Wednesday.
• Shea McClellin has great pursuit to the quarterback on the outside but has to learn contain. When he was drafted I pointed out that playing end for the Bears under Lovie Smith is a complicated gig. Shea is learning but he’s damn talented.
• Dez Bryant was arguably the best player on the Bears defense last night. Dez has more talent than most players in the NFL but he’s a mental/emotional disaster.
• Romo looked to me like he was avoiding Tim Jennings most of the night? All. Pro.
• Nick Roach might be the most underrated player on this defense. He was liability two years and now he’s turned into a steady, reliable linebacker.

SPECIAL TEAMS.

• I know I’m punter obsessed but I told y’all how good Brian Moorman is and he kept Dallas in this game for a quarter and a half. He’s the best short-range punter in the sport. Buffalo will regret cutting him.
• And one of my favorite moments of last night was Adam Podlesh’s 53-yard punt from deep in Bears territory. A poor, returnable punt to Dez Bryant there could have altered the momentum of the game. Podlesh did well.

FINALE.

This was a great win and a win I did not project at the start of the year. The Bears now have a tremendous opportunity to win in Jacksonville and go into the bye week 4-1.

Three final thoughts:

• I agree wholeheartedly with what Mike Francesa said on the radio Sunday morning. I think this game will be won by whichever offensive line/offensive coordinator keeps their quarterback upright. Both QBs are capable of shredding even a good secondary when they have time to throw the ball. Both are also possible of big errors when pressured consistently.
• DeMarco Murray frightens me more than any other Cowboy weapon. I always believe Lovie’s defenses are susceptible to the cut-back runner and Murray is a good one.
• It is time for Bears special teams to begin their 2012 season.

Bear down.