The Bears and Panthers played a Week Four shootout in October of 2011. But nobody has been firing anything but blanks at the 2012 Bears defense. And, almost bizarrely, the Panthers were a far better team with a rookie quarterback playing his fourth game than they are today.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.
• Because I am not buying into the “letdown game” concept. And unless you buy into the concept of the Bears suffering a letdown coming off Detroit, you can not conceivably think this beaten-and-left-for-dead Panthers team is going to win a big game on the road.
• (See: Pertinent Statistics.)

PERTINENT STATISTICS

• Carolina is allowing over 120 yards per game on the ground.
• Matt Forte rushed for 205 yards against the Panthers a year ago.
• Carolina is ranked in the NFL’s bottom five in both yards and points per game.
• The Bears are allowing only 13 points per game. They are a full 1.3 points better than San Francisco’s 14.3.

STEVE SMITH IS ON THE CAROLINA PANTHERS

And I will have nightmares of his playoff Bears mauling from 2005 for the rest of my life. Don’t remember it?

Side note on Smith: I’ll be discussing an approach to covering Smith with Cameron Worrell on the pod later this week.

MORE ANALYSIS, PLEASE? SURE.

• We played the Ron Rivera/Greg Olsen motivation story line to death last year and the Panthers still lost the game. I don’t think Rivera or Olsen are thinking about anything Sunday aside from attempting to rescue a sinking season.
• Yes the Panthers played the Bears tight in 2011 but they played the Bears during the the worst portion of their Cutler season. The Bears had come off back-to-back embarrassments versus Green Bay & New Orleans and followed the Carolina game with their humiliating Monday night effort in Detroit.
• Steve Smith had 8 catches for 181 yards last year and has about 10,000 yards against the Bears in his career. If Peanut Tillman shuts Smith down, I’ll write a letter to Canton asking for his early enshrinement.
• I thought Cutler was going to have a breakout game against the Lions and he very well may have if he doesn’t get DDT’d by Suh late in the second quarter. Having watched the Panthers secondary a few times this year, this could/should be the week if Cutler is as healthy as he says.
• This is not what you want to hear your coach say. Ron Rivera in the Charlotte Observer: “If (firing an assistant coach) is what has to happen eventually, then yeah. Maybe that’s what happens,” Rivera said. “Do we cut players? Yeah. Maybe that’s what we’ll have to do. We’re evaluating everything as we go forward.”
• The Panthers have lost their last two games at home while scoring 12 and 14 points. The Bears are averaging 13 points allowed. Hmmm…
• I think Greg Olsen will be a significant test for Brian Urlacher over the middle of the field but Olsen is not exactly a tough, over-the-middle type.

ON CAM NEWTON

He’s the key to this game. Everything else is a secondary. I don’t see how any prognosticator/analyst can accurately predict what the big righty is going to bring to Soldier Field Sunday because he’s become the most unpredictable player in the sport down-to-down. The criticism has grown louder and louder. Here is what columnist Jason Whitlock wrote on Newton recently:

Cam Newton is being ruined. In the aftermath of Sunday’s loss to the Cowboys, Newton, once again, handled the postgame news conference horribly. He not-so-subtly criticized his coaching staff. He flippantly quipped that he wanted to bring a suggestion box into the news conference. He condescendingly called a female reporter “sweetheart.”

He sounded like a crybaby and a loser. The black information bubble immediately leaped to Cam’s defense, claiming Cam’s critique of the offensive strategy was accurate.

The accuracy of his complaints is irrelevant. A quarterback is in partnership with his head coach and offensive coordinator. Their disagreements and criticisms should be handled internally and not referenced at a news conference by the QB.

Newton’s maturity – much like the maturity of his quarterbacking counterpart – has been questioned publicly and his out-the-door GM questioned whether he’d put any leaders in the Panthers locker room. He’s also been exhibiting odd behavior at press conferences. Like this:

I’m not concerned with his maturity (or the odd behavior, to be honest). I’m concerned with his ability to read defenses, make smart decisions and get the football to one of the best receivers in the game. Right now I just don’t buy he’ll be able to do that consistently for four quarters.

PREDICTION

Bears win easily and save their clunker for me, in person, in Nashville. Chicago Bears 28, Carolina Panthers 10

FIRST, SOME BUSINESS…

Look above. Those are the official tee shirts of DaBearsBlog. They are fantastic. And you have until October 31st  to own one. Or three. Or thirty. CLICK HERE and go get one. The shirts will not be available again until the end of the regular season and – most hopefully – the beginning of the postseason. How can you rationalize NOT owning one?

LET’S GO RAPID FIRE.

• Jay Cutler was hurt as the second quarter was coming to an end. And no matter what anyone around Halas Hall tells you Cutler had no business playing the second half. But the coaching staff knew it was important for Cutty to stay on the field and they managed the game accordingly. They were not going to risk his health until Detroit pushed the issue and a series of costly turnovers kept that from happening. Sometimes it’s not all about play calls and scheme. Sometimes it’s about understanding the moment. Lovie and Tice did an excellent job of that Monday night.
• The Bears need to get more out of Adam Podlesh. His foot goes limp deep in Bears territory and he’s terribly at pinning the ball inside the ten. Great punters can make a huge difference in the types of games the Bears will soon be playing. I don’t think Podlesh is one.
• Hey Jay Cutler. Slide.
• With about thirteen minutes left in the second quarter, Cutler hit Marshall on a bullet slant from the Bears 1. 18 yard gain on 3rd and 11. I think it was the single most important offensive plan of the night. (If Bears punt out of end zone they are in trouble.)
• What is going on in Gabe Carimi’s head? Why so many thoughtless penalties? He has become the biggest liability along the offensive line.
• I see why Mike Tice likes Chilo Rachal. He’s a street fighter.
• What’s the record for false starts by a center? Roberto Garza may break it this season.
• You know who the best player on the offensive line is? Lance Louis.
• I thought Nick Harris had a spectacular night punting for Detroit.
• I thought Brian Urlacher had more burst at the point of attack that he’s had all season.
• If Kellen Davis can’t catch the ball, send someone else into the routes. Give Kyle Adams a shot to make plays. I don’t need to see #87 drop any more balls this year. I’m good.
• I’m not as opposed to the Bears pulling Hester off returns as others. Sometimes it is very evident Hester doesn’t have his head in the game and he looked awful on returns early. Bears were trying to create some field position on specials and Hester wasn’t even fielding the ball.

THESE NEXT TWO GAMES…

…are must wins for me. Of course they could lose one of them still make a deep run in the postseason but they could be essential wins from a psychological perspective. Beat Carolina and Tennessee. Get to 7-1. And then all you’d “need” is a final eight split to reach 11 wins and a sure thing trip to the tournament.

BRANDON MARSHALL ON FIRST TAKE

I don’t watch First Take on ESPN2. Why? Because I would rather have my eyes gnawed out of my face by a toucan than intentionally spend thirty seconds with either Stephen A. Smith or Skip Bayless – never mind both simultaneously. But Brandon Marshall’s Tuesday appearance garnered some attention and he’s terrific. Here it is.

JUST READ THIS SHORT PIECE

From USA Today:

We’ve tended to highlight some of Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler’s morequestionable antics around these parts, so it’s only right to point out when he goes out of his way to be a stand-up guy.

According to ESPNChicago, Cutler invited the family of the Bears fan killed in Jacksonville prior to the team’s road game against the Jaguars in Week 5. Christopher Pettry, 42 and a married father of three from Lake Villa, Ill., was stabbed at a restaurant in the Jacksonville Landing area.

Cutler gave Pettry’s family tickets to Monday night’s game against Detroit and spent time with them prior to kickoff. The Bears defeated the Lions 13-7.

“We wanted to reach out and bring them to the game,” Cutler told ESPNChicago. “It’s a tough situation. There’s nothing I or anyone can say that can really ease their pain or bring anybody back. Hopefully we were able to let them have an enjoyable time for three or four hours and kind of forget their loss and just have a good time and help them in that way because it’s hard.”

Don’t judge a man’s character by how he responds to questions from people like David Haugh.

Monday night was the definitive performance of Peanut Tillman’s great career in Chicago. The Great & Powerful Puncher of Balls held the game’s most explosive player (Calvin Johnson) to a couple catches for some meaningless yards. He also forced fumbles on back-to-back plays with the balls unfortunately bouncing to the sideline. He was a legend at Soldier Field.

This was his greatest game. But do you remember his greatest play?

In 2005 Lovie Smith’s Chicago Bears won the NFC North without an offense for fourteen weeks. They won games 9-7 (Washington), 10-6 (Baltimore), 13-3 (Carolina) and 13-10 (Tampa) prior to Rex Grossman’s triumphant return from injury in prime time against the Atlanta Falcons. In 2006 Lovie’s boys allowed 7 points or less in four of their first five games but looked far more human after Denny Green’s Cardinals proved the Bears were who he thought they were on a Week Six trip to Arizona.

The 2012 Chicago Bears are the best defensive group of Lovie Smith’s tenure. And if they stay healthy the 2012 Chicago Bears are legitimate contenders to play in that big ballgame in New Orleans come February.

It starts at corner, believe it or not. The position often believed to be an afterthought in Lovie’s cover-2 shell has become this vintage’s bread and butter. After Tim Jennings played at an All-Pro level for the month of September, Peanut Tillman capped off a magnificent three-week run against the Detroit Lions by shutting down the league’s best receiver. With Charles Woodson hitting the infirmary for the next six weeks I could also make a serious argument that DJ Moore is the most consistent nickel back in the game (and certainly in the NFC North).

At safety, I lean on Zach Zaidman. Here is a direct Tweet from the man:

In 12 games with the Conte/Wright starting safety tandem, #Bears defense has 22 INTs and only 9 passing TDs allowed.

After a decade of Kevin Paynes, Al Afalavas (apparently still IN the NFL) and Brandon McGowans it appears Lovie Smith has found a pair of safeties he entrusts to positions themselves 18-22 yards off the ball. But last night we saw just how flexible these two guys can be. Major Wright made several excellent edge-seals in the run game and Chris Conte may very well be the best blitzing option the Bears have if he can keep his balance when unabated to the quarterback.

The front seven is ferocious. Last night with safeties lined up at the Art Institute the Lions were unable to mount anything resembling a running attack. Lance Briggs is the best pure linebacker in the sport, Brian Urlacher is coming back…slowly and all eight guys in the defensive line rotation are capable of getting to the quarterback on every single play. (I think Shea McClellin is going to be an absolute star in this system for years to come.)

They have allowed fewer points than any team in the league by a wide margin. They have turned the takeaway into their own private art form. Defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli mixes looks and personnel groups just enough to confound opposing quarterbacks. They do everything well and they do just about everything better than the rest of the NFL.

We were told by David Haugh and some other Chicago columnists this would be the year offensive football lit the torch and led the angry mob to kill the monster. Not so fast my friends. This is a defensive town. This is a defensive team. And they are Lovie’s best.

Five final thoughts:

1. It was requested this be the game thread photo for all prime time contests after its success against the Dallas Cowboys. We’re sticking with superstition and letting silly bear in cowboy hat rule the night one more time.
2. Stopping Calvin Johnson is always an adventure but not a requisite for beating the Lions. The Bears need to focus their attention on stopping the second (Burleson) and third (Scheffler, Pettigrew, Young) options for Matt Stafford. Calvin Johnson is going to get his. Make sure nobody else does.
3. Test this secondary on early downs. Detroit has a good run-stopping defense so best to avoid worthless first-down carries that puts the offensive line on their heels.
4. Devin Hester can conceivably win this game on his own if Jim Schwartz gives him that opportunity.
5. If this game is played in a downpour I truly don’t know who it favors. I don’t foresee either team finding success in the run game so we may find ourselves in a field position/kicking battle. At home, I still like the Bears quite a bit in that situation.

Bear down.

Amazingly the Bears have played on only THREE of the first SEVEN NFL Sundays. Since the last preseason game there have been three 10+ day gaps between games. It’s led to me filling a lot of column space with tee shirt sales and contest posts.

No such problem today. Today we preview tonight’s Bears v. Lions match-up with Free Press beat writer and friend of the blog, Dave Birkett. Dave’s great. Give it a listen.

Rooting interests:

• Can St. Louis hold their own against a potentially-surging Packers team at home? Here’s hoping.
• I’m keeping my eyes on Minnesota even though I don’t quite buy them as a playoff contender. I’d like to see Arizona take them down a peg or two today.
• And why not root for Bob Griffin and company to take out the Giants in Jersey? The Giants are the scariest team in the league, if you ask me, and I don’t want them around.

My predictions. I have no conviction for them.

• Buffalo 20, Tennessee 14
• Cleveland 16, Indianapolis 14 (Upset!)
• Green Bay 30, St. Louis 17
• Minnesota 13, Arizona 10
• New York Giants 31, Washington Redskins 30
• New Orleans 24, Tampa Bay 20
• Dallas 34, Carolina 24
• Houston 28, Baltimore 20
• Oakland 17, Jacksonville 13
• New England 33, New York Jets 13
• Pittsburgh 20, Cincinnati 17 (OT)

Today is our seventh NFL Sunday. The Bears have played on three of them.

Tee Shirt Sales

Go and support the site, buy a tee shirt and show a Bears fan you love them. To do so, CLICK HERE.

Picks Contest Reminder.

If you have not entered the contest by now you are ineligible to win the contest. To see a the current standings after five weeks, CLICK HERE. We will update the standings again in three weeks or so.

Picks Contest Prize.

You’ll be invited as special guest of DaBearsBlog to this year’s Round One Draft Party on Thursday night, April 25th at Cortland’s Garage in Bucktown. The prize includes:

• Accommodation for draft night at The Willows Hotel, Lakeview. To see the hotel, CLICK HERE. I’ll also be in the hotel and will gladly take you for a drink at the local spot Monsignor Murphy’s if you so choose.
• DaBearsBlog will cover the open bar for you and a +1 at the event.
• Two automatic entries into the ticket contest giveaway that evening. (We’ll announce the particular game and details once the schedule is released next spring.)
• A pair of 2012 DaBearsBlog tee-shirts.

*Sadly we’ve removed the Lou Malnati’s gift card for now due to some issues that have arisen. I am working on them and will have either the Malnati’s card restored or something in its place.

(Home team in CAPS)

BUFFALO -3 Tennessee

MINNESOTA -6 Arizona

INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 Cleveland

HOUSTON -7 Baltimore

Green Bay -5 ST. LOUIS

Dallas -2 CAROLINA

NEW YORK GIANTS -6 Washington

New Orleans -3 TAMPA BAY

NEW ENGLAND -10.5 New York Jets

OAKLAND -4 Jacksonville

Pittsburgh -1.5 CINCINNATI

I need a rebound selection to keep pace with the juggernaut that is Crown and oddly the teams I like I’ve already used. (Who invented this game anyhow?) So I’m taking the COWBOYS. It’s risky but I like it.

For actual gambling, here’s a three-team teaser: Patriots -4.5, Cowboys +4 and Ravens +13.

The Bears have an opportunity Monday night against the Detroit Lions to cement their position on the NFC’s top shelf. If they win I have no doubt they’ll enter the second half of the 2012 campaign at no worse than 6-2 (preferably 7-1) and be primed to play ballgames in January. I think they do it.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.

PERTINENT STATISTICS

• The Detroit Lions are the 2nd ranked offense in terms of yards-per-game and 12th in points.
• Their defense is 9th in yards-per-game and 24th in points. (One would think this discrepancy has something to do with their porous coverage units on specials.)
• Their always-talking pass rushers have been one of the disappointing units in the sport, registering only 9 sacks thus far this season.
• The biggest statistical advantage the Bears have going in: they are +9 in the turnover battle. Detroit is -1.

TWO GUYS PRIMED FOR BIG NIGHTS

• Julius Peppers is the anchor of the Bears defensive line but he has yet to have one of those “I am unblockable” games. Matt Stafford was forced from the pocket a lot (early) against the Philadelphia Eagles. Let’s see if Lions rookie Riley Reiff can handle Pep the way he seemingly handled Jason Babin.

• Devin Hester is one of the biggest Monday Night Football performers in Bears history and he continued that trend with his diving touchdown grab against the Cowboys a few weeks back. I have written that Hester has looked ordinary in the return game thus far in 2011. The Lions are the worst kick covering team in the league. If they send the ball his way, they will pay dearly.

MORE ANALYSIS, PLEASE? SURE.

• The Detroit receiving corps is a nightmare match-up for the Bears and pretty much any other secondary. Calvin Johnson is arguably the best receiver in the sport (unfair to rule out Larry Fitzgerald because he has no QB). Nate Burleson is a solid second option and has had success against Chicago. The tight ends – Tony Scheffler & Brandon Pettigrew – will attempt to own the middle of the field while forcing Brian Urlacher to run sideline-to-sideline. If the Bears don’t pressure Stafford consistently, he will move the ball.
• That being said you’d need to look long and hard to find a pair of Bears corners simultaneously playing as well as Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings. If you’re going to face Calvin Johnson this is the time to do so.
• The Lions can’t run the ball. They try but they can’t do it and Mikel Leshoure doesn’t seem the kind of back to light up Soldier Field in prime time against a defense playing this well.
• I do think the Lions will do a nice job on the Bears running game. They held Shady McCoy to 1.6 yard per carry. This game will need to be won by Jay Cutler.

THRIVE/SURVIVE

•  Thrive: It is time for Jay Cutler to have his night. Against this horrendous secondary and with a confident Brandon Marshall, Cutler should be able to have one of those 100+ quarterback rating/300 yards passing nights in front of the home fans.
• Survive. DJ Moore. The Lions starting having a great deal of success by sending Calvin Johnson into the slot and running him across the field. Unless LoveRod decide to pin Peanut to Megatron all night one might expect Moore to be man-to-man with monstrous receiver at several pivotal junctures throughout the game.

PREDICTION

What scares me about Detroit is their passing game and defensive lines are capable of getting hot and controlling the pace of a game. But they were beaten by the Eagles and Mike Vick/Andy Reid decided to let them back in the game. No quarterback is better with a big lead than Cutler and I think the Bears win by double-digits.

Chicago Bears 27, Detroit 17

If you don’t listen to Cam’s analysis each week, you’re making a mistake. He is technical, detailed and we have a lot of fun.

On this week’s show he dissects the specific challenges the Detroit offense poses, states how the game will hinge upon Jennings/Moore winning one-on-one match-ups, breaks down the importance of Conte being technically sound to protect against Calvin Johnson beating the Bears over the top and illustrates the demeanor of a Lovie defender when the defense goes soft at the end of halves.

Bonus video:

Here is some analysis from the Eagles perspective on how the Philadelphia secondary collapsed (thanks to some nifty coaching decisions) against the Lions late.