THAT DARNED STAT

• Bears are currently 7th in yards allowed per game (309) and 5th in passing yards allowed (189.8). Considering the lack of consistent pass rush and deficiencies in secondary personnel, these are remarkable statistics.
• The ten teams leading the league is total rushing attempts are a combined 13-27.

• Turnovers remain the most important stat in the sport. Not a single team in the top 12 in turnover differential is under .500.

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It was only one win but it felt like six. Thoughts:

• This was the classic Jay Cutler performance, even without proper usage of his legs. He moved the team up and down the field, behind a makeshift offensive line and without his top wide receiver. He threw one stupid pass. But with the game on the line and the ball in his hands he drove the Bears to their first victory of the season.
• Cutler continues to be a winning quarterback when the Bears play defense. The model isn’t brain surgery, folks. Cutler is not a shootout-type quarterback. There are only about five of those in the league and he isn’t one of them.
• Losing Will Montgomery can’t be overstated. NFL teams have collapsed under the weight of losing their starting center. But the Bears used their third round pick on center Hroniss Grasu this year. If he’s not moved into the starting lineup this week, one wonders how far off the kid is from playing?
• Still not sure I understand Matt Forte picking up 25 carries while Rodgers and Langford total 3.
• Hated how John Fox handled the ends of both halves. In the first half, once the Bears sack Carr on first down, Fox has to use the first timeout. He gave away a clear scoring chance. At the end of the game, who plays for a 49-yard field goal? I don’t care how good Robbie Gould is kicking right now – and he might be at his career best – there was far too much time to get ultra-conservative with the game on the line.

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Chicago Bears Schedule

“Oakland wants to run the clock down here…they’re going to go hurry up though.”

-Something Chris Simms actually said while calling Raiders v. Browns

KYLE LONG V. KHALIL MACK

If you’re looking for a single reason to be excited for Bears v. Raiders, this is it. Mack rarely moves off left side of the defensive line (if at all) and that means a showdown between two of the best young players in the sport for sixty minutes. Mack has the advantage of being a pass rusher for the last half decade while Long has been a tackle since Labor Day. If Long consistently wins this battle it will reaffirm the belief of many that he’s destined to be one of the best tackles in the sport for years to come.

WHAT THE RAIDERS LIKE TO DO IS…

• Feed Amari Cooper and feed him a lot. It is rare to see a young wide receiver as polished and versatile as the young man from Alabama. Derek Carr is just as comfortable throwing him a quick fade on first-and-ten from his own 20 as he is throwing him a slant on third-and-goal at the one with the clocking winding down on a victory. Cooper embarrassed Joe Haden in Cleveland and the Bears don’t have a defensive back anywhere near Haden’s league.
• Play with balance. Even when the Raiders were nursing a substantial lead against the Browns they managed to mix in the pass with some effectiveness. After the Browns got within 7 of them late in the fourth quarter Sunday, here was their drive (the fumbled punt by Cleveland cost them the gain):

• Run the power game with Latavius Murray. Murray reminds me an awful lot of Frank Gore. He’s not only big and strong but he’s got real explosiveness once he get through the initial hole. He’s hell for any secondary to deal with in the open field.
• Sit their safeties back and make opponents throw underneath. One reason tight ends have had such success against the Raiders (see Bears of intrigue) is that neither Charles Woodson nor Nate Allen are capable of covering anyone. Both are far more comfortable 15-20 yards off the line of scrimmage, playing a center field role. One would imagine this approach will change against James Clausen as giving Clausen any easy throws is a schematic mistake. No throws are easy for Clausen if there’s a defender within five yards. (If Cutler plays, expect Woodson to sit deep and rely upon his proven track record of reading Cutty’s eyes.)

THE GAME POEM

They come….

Raid, raid, pillage and plunder!

…young and hungry…

Raid, pillage, pillage, raid!

…a western horde…

Plunder, pillage, raid!

…ascending to the top of the hill…

Raid. Pillage. Plunder.

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Another 1-2 week has left me reeling through three weeks of the season. Gave the Ravens too much credit (and didn’t deduct enough points for Marc Trestman’s involvement in their organization). Didn’t give the Bears defensive coaching staff enough credit. Nothing is over. Nothing. I shall rebound.

DOLPHINS UNDER 20 POINTS V. JETS IN LONDON

If you get an opportunity to watch the replay of Bills v. Dolphins from Sunday, spend the hour and do so. It felt like, from the opening whistle, we were watching the last game of the Joe Philbin era in Miami. The offense was useless. The defense made Tyrod Taylor look like Roger Staubach. The coaching staff didn’t make a single discernible adjustment over the course of 60 minutes. And they’ve completely lost the plot with their use of Suh.

Are the Jets great? No. But their defense is capable of wrecking this game for the Dolphins and I can’t see Tannehill getting this group to three touchdowns.

BEARS +3 OVER RAIDERS

Full report on this selection will be available in tomorrow’s game preview.

LIONS +10 AT SEAHAWKS

Let’s look at the Seahawks first three games. They were humiliated defensively in week one by Nick Foles and a Rams offense that have gone AWOL since. They were somewhat lifeless at Lambeau Field, losing by double digits in a game that never felt that close. Sunday, at home against Jimmy Clausen, they were entirely unimpressive. So how are they double-digit favorites against ANYBODY? Not only do I think this game is close, I wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit has a chance to win late.

Record: 3-5-1 (-$260)

Note From Jeff: We are going to keep experimenting with the Wednesday space until Andrew feels right. Today is a massive tone change. Hope you like it.

• Oakland rookie receiver Amari Cooper has been awesome this season, which should make Bears fans excited about Kevin White’s potential. Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel does some great pre-draft work  having scouts rank the players. Cooper came in as the top-ranked receiver totaling 12 first-place votes and 88 points, while White received seven first-place votes and 82 points, way ahead of the rest of the field.

• It sure looks like Mel Tucker is coaching the Bears special teams. Players make mistakes that lead to big plays on the field, but when different players keep making the same mistakes, it’s a sign that the coach isn’t doing a good enough job of coaching them. The Bears allowed two 40-yard kick returns in Week 1 and have allowed return touchdowns in consecutive weeks. This comes after last year when the one thing they did better than anyone else was cover kicks, leading the league in average allowed yards per return.

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2014

Outside of Pat O’Donnell, who I think is one heck of a punter, there is a possibility this draft does not produce a single long-term starter at any of the 22 positions. That would be a nightmare scenario for the Bears. There is also, however, a chance it produces three. If Fuller, Ferguson and Sutton are not productive components on the defense moving forward, GM Ryan Pace is truly starting from scratch with this rebuild.

2013

Just…wow. Kyle Long was the steal of the 2013 draft. Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper were offensive linemen taking in the top ten of this draft and Long is better than all of them by a significant margin. The Bears have gotten zero production from the remainder of the selections.

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Three Thoughts

• Jared Allen seemed to make significant progress at a new position this summer but looked overwhelmed in his first three real games. (This once again reiterates the point that preseason football is utterly meaningless.) Per various beats, Allen was nowhere to be found in the locker room after the Bears loss to the Seahawks. He clearly didn’t want to finish his career playing the wrong position.
• Short-term this moves allows Lamarr Houston back onto the field. And Houston fits this defense.
• Long-term the Bears need to be putting players on the field in 2015 who they believe will be part of the organization in 2016 and beyond. If the Cowboys or anybody else is interested in Matt Forte, and the Bears don’t plan to re-sign Forte, the deal should get done.

HOGE NAILS THREE POINTS

Sat down to write a column Monday morning and after a Google search realized Adam Hoge (WGN) already wrote it. He makes three suggestions to John Fox and all three are 100% correct.

1. Start David Fales against the Raiders.

2. Stop the nonsense and just have Pat O’Donnell boom kickoffs out of the back of the end zone.

3. Give Jeremy Langford more carries.

Quick thought on each.

• Wrote the column on why Bears should have started David Fales last week. Jimmy Clausen is horrible and everyone on earth knows that. (Did you see how Pete Carroll approached him Sunday? They were daring him to throw passes!) 2015 is in the books. Every decision should be geared towards 2016 and beyond.
• Teams are going to move the ball on the Bears all season so they’re not afraid to return kickoffs from inside the end zone. There’s no different to them between starting on the 13 or 20 yard lines. Bears can’t cover kicks currently and they shouldn’t have to. They have a protective measure on the roster. They should use him.
• Bears need to make a decision immediately whether Matt Forte is part of their future. If he’s not, he shouldn’t be on this team. I’d take Hoge’s point a step further. I think Langford should be receiving a bulk of the carries.

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