2-0-1 this week because I was apparently the only person on earth who had the Bears +3 instead of the 4.5 they went off at by kickoff. 7-1-1 over my last nine picks.

No joke. I hate the games this week. Hate the games. Hate the lines. So it’s going to take some luck.

COLTS -4.5 OVER SAINTS

While the football world was declaring the Pats would beat the Colts Sunday night by 100 points as some kind of deflation retribution, Luck kept the Colts neck-and-neck until his moron head coach decided to run one of the stupidest plays every devised for the game of football. Even Chuck Pagano, a terrible head coach, won’t be able to prevent Luck from shredding the Saints defense at home. Indianapolis 34, New Orleans 20.

PATRIOTS UNDER 28.5 VS. NEW YORK JETS

The Jets are the best defense in football and if Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t go through a six-week run of interceptions – as is his history – they are going to be a beast to deal with in the postseason. (A Jets v. Broncos wild card game could go to penalty field goals.) New England is the better team here but I like needing them to score more than four touchdowns. New England 20, New York 17.

RAMS -5.5 OVER BROWNS

Rams are good. Browns are not good. Rams defense is terrific. The last time Josh McCown went into St. Louis as a starting quarterback he was thoroughly embarrassed. Rams have Todd Gurley. Browns have the league’s worst rush defense. I don’t see how this game is close. St. Louis 27, Cleveland 6.

Season Record: 10-6-2

THOUGHTS FROM AROUND THE LEAGUE

(1) Eli Manning was the best and worst player in the league on the FIRST TWO DRIVES of the Monday Night Football game. There’s never been a player like him in the league.

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(2) After the first week of the season it became in vogue to question whether Tampa Bay made a mistake selecting Jameis Winston over Marcus Mariota. In the four games since Winston has been undoubtedly the better player and Mariota has shown two features that worried many scouts: inability to absorb contact and lack of ball security. Interestingly enough, nobody has revisited this question in the national media. If Winston wants to know how he’ll be covered an an NFL quarterback, he should just call Cam Newton.

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(3) Is Cincinnati the best team in football right now? New England and Green Bay are not good defensively. Carolina and Denver are not good offensively. Cincy does everything well. They’ll still lose in the playoffs but they may be losing that game in the division round instead of wild card weekend.

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(4) You know what the worst development of the NFL season has been? The games stink.

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(5) I don’t care what the stats say. Brandon Marshall has been the best wide receiver in football this year. He’s transformed the New York Jets offense.

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• Before we make Adam Gase the head coach of the Dolphins or anyone else, can we at least have him fix the red zone offense? The spread-style scheme he runs is great at getting the Bears close, but they still need to be able to power it in the end zone once they’re there. It’s more difficult to create mismatches when the defense doesn’t have to cover as much space.

• It’s not all on Gase. The Bears have been getting their butts kicked at the point of attack when the other team is able to play their base or goal line defenses. You also saw Cutler miss a throw to Royal and Marty Bennett drop a perfect throw, both would’ve been touchdowns. Players have to make plays.

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Social media was aghast yesterday in the wake of the Bears 37-34 overtime loss to the Detroit Lions. It seemed everybody wanted to assign blame. The truth is everybody on the Bears sideline was somewhat responsible.

• If John Fox doesn’t make a zillion mistakes managing this game (the most egregious, in my opinion, is detailed below) they probably win the game.
• If the Bears finish their drives down around the goal line, they win the game.
• If Jay Cutler hits Matt Forte on the wide open wheel route that looks destined for the end zone, they probably win the game.
• If the Bears catch a few balls they dropped, including pivotal ones by Martellus Bennett and Marquess Wilson, they probably win the game.
• If Pernell McPhee doesn’t rough Matt Stafford, they probably win the game.

But let’s remember. If the Lions don’t fumble two punts, the Bears aren’t even getting this game near overtime. Fans have been fooled by their quarterback’s heroics over the last three weeks into believing this is suddenly a good team. It is not. And we learned that definitively Sunday.

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Buy Chicago Bears Tickets

The Bears have a chance to enter their bye week at .500. That thought was unfathomable two weeks ago. Hell, it was unfathomable with six minutes remaining at Arrowhead Sunday. Nevertheless, here we are, daring to dream.

AN ACTUAL QUICK THOUGHT

Does anybody really know if the Bears are any good? Honestly, do you?

Sunday will tell us something. If the Bears are a better than average team they will go into Detroit and beat a Lions team on life support. They will embrace the opportunity to rescue what looked like a dying season by beating a team they are better than right now. Good teams beat the teams they should, unapologetically. This is one of those cases.

The Bears haven’t been in this situation. Point spread aside, many will expect them to win this week. How will they handle a bit of success? How will their quarterback handle the abundant praise (deserved) he’s received all week locally? It will be a fascinating game to watch.

THE GAME POEM

DETROIT.

Where once there was a factory

Now sits only stone

And a city once that changed the world

Sits quietly, alone

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2-1 last week, only losing because the eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants had to do it their way Sunday and make the end of the game exciting. 5-1 over my last six and I’m a believer in gambling momentum.

Chicago Bears +3 at Detroit Lions

Hot hand. Two straight covers. And I think the Bears are simply better than the Lions right now. (More on this tomorrow.)

Atlanta Falcons & New Orleans Saints Over 51 Pts

First off, I love rooting for overs. It means lots of scoring. Secondly, I’m not sure either of these teams is any good on the defensive side of the ball. I see a 34-24 type game, smoothly sailing past the number.

Carolina Panthers +7 at Seattle Seahawks

I don’t think the Seahawks are any good. They have two wins on the year. One against James Clausen and they needed all four quarters to win that. One against a Detroit team that was half a yard from beating them in Seattle. It sometimes takes folks time to move beyond reputation and analyze what’s happening on the field. On the field, Seattle stinks. Their offensive line is putrid. Their secondary collapses in the fourth quarter. Their quarterback is limited in the pocket. (If you don’t follow Pete Prisco’s work on this, you should.)

Ron Rivera is salivating when he watches tape of this OL group. Add Luke Kuechly to the mix and I’m comfortable taking the points.

Season Record: 8-6-1 

Dave Birkett sounds the way the man covering the Detroit Lions should: dour. During the conversation he discusses:

• Defensive lack of identity in the post-Suh era.
• How age is starting to catch up with the Lions roster at various positions, including wide receiver and linebacker.
• Why Matthew Stafford is losing confidence of Lions fans and quite possibly ownership.
• Calvin Johnson no longer being Calvin Johnson.
• A possible bright side for the remainder of the 2015 season. (Hint: it starts with Lions winning Sunday.)