Rumor is I made a few picks last week. I have no recollection of this but it has been brought to my attention by several associates. (I was not disappointed in the Rams pick. That game could have gone either way. But I just didn’t think the Packers would lose back-to-back games or that the Bears defense could hold the Charger offense to 12 points.) This week, a rebound…and a theme! Road dogs!

BUFFALO BILLS +3 AT NEW YORK JETS

Here’s why I like the Bills to win outright tonight:

• When Buffalo’s had their starting quarterback and star wide receiver, they’ve been a different team. Both will be looking to make their 2015 statement in front of a national audience tonight and thrust their team into the playoff race.
• Jets defense has hit a wall. The Patriots got them for 30, the Raiders got them for 34 and last week the Jags offense managed 23 and – most importantly – kept the game close throughout.
• I know the coaching staffs are entirely different (including a swap) but the combined score of the Bills/Jets games in 2014 were 81-26.

CHICAGO BEARS +7 AT ST. LOUIS RAMS

St. Louis will be in the 20s. The Bears should be in the 20s. Points just seem too many for a team quarterbacked by Nick Foles.

DETROIT LIONS +11 AT GREEN BAY PACKERS

This has all the makings of a back door cover, especially against a defense that just allowed the Broncos and Panthers – two struggling offenses – 29 and 37 respectively. I’ll take the points.

Season Record: 13-12-2

• Upon further review, I have changed my mind about the biggest thing to come out of this game. Immediately after the game, I thought it was about their defense finally getting a stop and Jeremy Langford. Now, I think it was about Alshon Jeffery. He was awful at the start of the game, with a dropped touchdown, another dropped pass on third down and a pick-six that he should’ve prevented. He put the team in a big hole. In the past, we’ve seen Alshon disappear after those moments. Then something happened. It’s as if he grew up before our eyes. He was different. We saw him pounding his chest and talking after the play. He was pissed off and he was going to dominate. Maybe it doesn’t happen that way if Jason Verrett doesn’t hurt his hamstring, but I’m not sure that mattered. He just may have taken the step the Bears dared him to take by not extending his contract before the season.

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Call it what it is: This game was terrible and hard to watch. But, for the first time in three weeks, the Bears came out on top of the poorly-played game and there were a couple good signs. Rapid fire…

• There are two big stories in this game. Two stories that could have a big impact on the Bears future: Their defense got a stop when they needed it and Jeremy Langford looks damn good.

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Where I am.

THE GAME POEM

Near the sea of La Jolla, lived a fella called Strand.

He loved to watch the surfers, cup of coffee in his hand.

He dreamed of The Day when he’d own his own board.

And ride off with The Girl in a ’67 Ford.

The Day never came.

The Girl never went.

And the years of his life were nothing, but spent.

FOUR QUICK THOUGHTS ON SAN DIEGO

• Loss of Keenan Allen for can not be understated. Allen is one of the best receivers in the game and has been the third most targeted. Chargers still have weapons but their passing attack might look similar to Chicago’s without Jeffery for the remainder of the season.
• Eric Weddle is supposedly returning to the starting lineup after missing a few games with a groin injury. I’ve always thought Weddle overrated but he HAS been San Diego’s best defender for half a decade. His 2015 has been all-but wasted, to the point of his being mentioned as trade bait at the non-existent deadline. Can Weddle have a major impact Monday night?
• Melvin Gordon has been a disappointment – which is a shock, I know, for a running back from Wisconsin. (Why is it that none of these guys translate to the professional game?) San Diego is one of the worst rushing teams in the game and when you watch Gordon on tape, there’s nothing there. He’s just a guy. And he certainly doesn’t look like he warranted first-round selection. His offensive coordinator believes he needs to “dig deep”.
• Danny Woodhead’s total touches through 8 games: 16, 13, 8, 12, 9, 12, 16, 5. He’s got four touchdowns. And with Allen injured, expect the Chargers to be reliant on Woodhead’s screen presence as they get settled into the passing game.

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Can’t complain about my picks a week ago. Saints flew by their number. Packers never approached theirs. And the Bears / Vikings game was a coin flip. 2-1. Four games over .500 on the season. This week…

ST. LOUIS +3 AT MINNESOTA

One team I think is very good. The other team is the Minnesota Vikings. And if Teddy Bridgewater struggled against the Bears defense, what is he going to do against one of the best defenses in the sport?

GREEN BAY -3 AT CAROLINA

No comment. Well one comment. Where are all the people who argued the Packers wouldn’t miss Jordy Nelson? They seem awfully quiet to me. The Packers are consistently credited for having magnificent drafts and an unending basket of talent. But it’s never been true. They have an all world quarterback. But even he misses his best and most reliable weapon.

CHICAGO & SAN DIEGO OVER 49 PTS

Season Record: 13-9-2

• Before getting into football talk, I want to thank everyone who for their kind words after the passing of my father. It was obviously a difficult week, made more difficult by the Bears.

• We all want to believe the Bears are a drastically different team because they have John Fox leading the way instead of Marc Trestman, but in their last two games they have played almost exactly like they did under Trestman. I get there is a lack of talent, but they have just as much as the Lions and the Vikings, there’s no excuse for them to lose either of those games the way they lost them.

• If the Bears and the Vikings were to swap quarterbacks, the Bears would have the first pick of the draft and the Vikings would win the Super Bowl.  Don’t listen to what you read on Twitter, Bridgewater is bad. Meanwhile, there aren’t 10 quarterbacks in the league who are better than Jay Cutler right now. There may not even be five.

• So, why did Adam Gase decide to take Cutler out of the game for most of the first half? Look at the Bears first six games and they were at their best when Cutler was moving around and making things happen. I get that he didn’t think they could block the Vikings’ front four, but by continuously throwing slip screens, he gave them no chance. As soon as he stopped doing that, the Bears started moving the ball. It isn’t difficult to figure out.

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NEXT FOUR BEARS GAMES…

…are absolutely brutal. But they also allow this front office and coaching to evaluate young players in valuable positions.

• The Chargers are not good but they love to throw the ball and will throw for a zillion yards against this secondary.
• The Rams & Broncos defenses will be the best defenses the Bears face all season.
• The Packers are the Packers.

The Bears can play well for the next month and find themselves 2-9.

ONE THOUGHT ON JAY CUTLER

Interestingly his leadership is never questioned when he plays well. The reason? It was always bullshit. Jay’s problem is not personality. It is interceptions.

AROUND THE LEAGUE!

(1) Who have the Packers beaten this season that impresses you? The best team they’ve beaten is St. Louis and on that day Nick Foles kept throwing the ball to them. The NFC does not have a great team.

(2) Why don’t the Lions have 8-8 in them? Since 2001, here are the Lions win totals: 2, 3, 5, 6, 5, 3, 7, 0, 2, 6, 10, 4, 7, 11 and currently 1. While the whole league tends to spend most of their time in the 7-9 win range the Lions have only been in there twice in 14 years. They either make the playoffs or they’re awful. No middle ground.

(3) Todd Gurley is averaging more than 6 yards per carry. No other back in the top in the league in rushing averages over 5.

(4) Great late Monday night Tweet from Sam Farmer: “@LATimesfarmer: Luck is like a radio signal that keeps going in and out. We’ve got Luck. We’ve got Luck. Nope, we lost him again. Now, he’s back.” Colts owner Jim Irsay better act quickly or he will lose his star QB.

(5) Backup quarterbacks in the NFC are now 0-7 in games they’ve started. And people wonder why the starters get the money they get?

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