Had a solid 2-1 day last week without putting the slightest bit of thought into the picks. My goal every year in gambling on football is to be 10 games over .500 at the end of the season. Have some to work to do down the stretch to achieve that.

GREEN BAY & DETROIT OVER 46.5 PTS

The Lions have finally started running their offense: drop Matthew Stafford back and throw bombs to Calvin Johnson. (Surprised it took promoting Jim Bob Cooter to recognize what the entire football watching public has seen for years.) I think Detroit puts up 24-30 on Green Bay and the Packers, who’ll play with desperation, should be their equal. 46.5 is a high number but it wouldn’t surprise me if this game goes into the 60s.

CHICAGO -7 VS. SAN FRANCISCO

Explanation will be available tomorrow in the game preview.

BUFFALO & HOUSTON UNDER 41 PTS

Texans defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel is from the Parcells/Belichick school of game preparation. What does that mean? It means he’ll look at the Bills tape and say, “We’re not going to let Sammy Watkins beat us.” And if you watch enough of the Bills you realize they are one team when Watkins is effective and another team when he’s injured/taken out of the game.

The Texans offense isn’t any good. Both teams should be in the teens.

Season Record: 19-15-2

• The Bears should have been running into a buzz saw. The Packers seemed to right whatever was wrong with them four days earlier, the weather conditions suited them perfectly and it was a night in which they honored one of the greatest players in their franchise’s history. Shit, Ron Wolf even referred to the field they were playing on as the house that Favre built. At no point did I think the Bears were going to win until about five seconds after — waiting for a flag — Aaron Rodgers’ fourth down pass hit the ground. How sweet it is.

• This wasn’t just a win for the Bears and it wasn’t just a loss for the Packers. The times are a changin’ in the NFC North and both teams know it.

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A Note from 26Shirts.com

First off, thanks to Jeff at DaBearsBlog.com for providing me with a little bandwidth to help explain what the heck that little block ad on the right-hand side of this website is all about…

Back in November 2013, I had an idea. I wanted to sell 26 t-shirts.

No, not one t-shirt to 26 individual customers. 26 unique sports designs over the course of a year. I’d sell a shirt for two weeks at a time, then once that two week period was over, the design would be retired. (That’s where the name comes from, 52 divided by 2.) This is limited edition-ness is part of the concept behind 26shirts.com.

“Ok,” you’re probably thinking, “another limited edition t-shirt website out here on the web. Big deal.”

Wait! Don’t walk (or click, or scroll) away! There’s more!

This isn’t your typical t-shirt website. What makes 26shirts.com different is that we are, as far as I’ve been able to research, the only sports merchandise company based on the “give back” model. For each shirt we sell, we donate $8 to a local family or foundation that can use the money.

We’re not a t-shirt website that helps people, we’re a website that helps people by selling t-shirts.

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Before this season began, in the shadows of low expectations, no one could have foreseen an evening like Thanksgiving night at Lambeau Field.

No one could have imagined a thirteen point outing from the home team just a year removed from seemingly scoring thirteen points a minute.

A second half shutout? Pipe dream.

No one could have envisioned the visiting quarterback thoroughly outplaying the man often mentioned in the same breath as a four-time Super Bowl champion.

No one could have guessed a secondary comprised of journeymen and kids would deliver heroic moment after heroic moment, refusing to break under the pressure of knowing a touchdown beats them. They shed multiple blockers. They batted down sure thing completions. They redirected routes and blanketed receivers on crucial downs. They did…everything.

(For video of the final four plays, you can VIEW THEM HERE ON YOUTUBE. The NFL, in its infinite wisdom, has disable embedding of their YouTube clips. Because why would you want to make it easy for those who love your product to consume it. My hatred of everything happening on Park Avenue grows daily.)

And perhaps most shocking, most unpredictable of all, no one would have believed that as the football season leaves Thanksgiving behind it is the fans of the Chicago Bears and not the Green Bay Packers who see their franchise’s arrow pointed decidedly up.

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Go Vikings, Steelers, Colts!

Hit a three-team, money line, Thanksgiving parlay for substantial cash yesterday so feeling good today. This week I’m rolling the dice and picking with my hopes and dreams and not with my mind or wallet concerns. What do the Bears need this weekend? These…

MINNESOTA +1.5 AT ATLANTA

Bears would trail the second wild card by a single game with a Vikings win. So I’m predicting a Vikings win.

PITTSBURGH +3.5 AT SEATTLE

Bears need to catch and pass the Seahawks in the standings due to James Clausen’s embarrassing performance. A loss to the Steelers would put both teams at 5-6. It happens.

INDIANAPOLIS -3 VS. TAMPA BAY

You want a football reason? I don’t have one. Go Colts!

Season Record: 17-14-2

Well, that was something!

• What a performance by Jay Cutler. White whale captured. He was far and away the best player on the field last night.
• Officiating debacle continues. The illegal contact on Tracy Porter gifted the Packers points. The tripping on Matt Slauson was one of the stupidest calls I’ve seen in years. Something has to be done. And soon. The experience of watching these games is being seriously hurt.
• It can’t be understated what Fox & Fangio are achieving with this defense. Look at the talent level.
• Jeremy Langford has to catch the ball. But he certainly looks far more explosive than Forte.
• Tracy Porter is going to be on this team in 2016.

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Art of Men, one of our main sponsors, is quickly becoming a force in the service world. They now have 1,600 members committed to doing good in the communities that need them. Last Saturday several members – including myself – provided 250 Thanksgiving turkey dinners to families in NYC’s Spanish Harlem. For full details on the event CLICK HERE.

I urge all readers of this site to simply go to ArtofMen.org on their phone and pop their email address into the space provided. You won’t regret it.

THE GAME POEM

“Turkey: A large bird whose flesh, when eaten on certain religious anniversaries has the peculiar property of attesting piety and gratitude.”

-Ambrose Bierce

THOUGHTS ON GREEN BAY PACKERS

• Green Bay’s defense hasn’t been great this season but they are actually ranked 8th in the league in points allowed per game. They are not in the top 20 of total yards, rushing yards or passing yards surrendered so what’s the reason for this anomaly? Turnovers. Packers are +8 on the season.
• A defense’s touchdown-to-interception ratio is a stat I’ve begun paying attention to in recent weeks and the numbers really are quite telling. The two best ratios in the league are 8-10 (Denver) and 12-15 (Carolina). The worst ratio is New Orleans’ 28-4. Packers are 13-11, right near the top of the sport. (Bears among the worst at 19-5)
• An interesting statistical tidbit from The Guardian (of all places):

By nearly every other quarterback’s standards Rodgers is having a brilliant season but he is not quite clicking with some of his receivers and his completion rate for the last three games stands at 52.1%, 57.4% and, on Sunday, 47.1%. Over that same same spell he has still thrown eight touchdowns and just one pick – he is Aaron Rodgers after all – but the fact that the chemistry between quarterback and receivers isn’t quite there (he has the lowest completion rate of his career in 2015) may cause trouble come the playoffs.

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• How many Bears players would start for Denver? Three? Four? Five, at most. Jay Cutler, Kyle Long, Marty Bennett and maybe Adrian Amos. Pernell McPhee could when he’s healthy, but he was a shell of himself yesterday. And, really, that’s it. But they could’ve won the game because they have a coach who wouldn’t let them quit and a quarterback who just kept coming after them.

• The anti-Cutler crowd didn’t waste any time, deeming him a failure again. Of course, they’re crazy. Cutler was great. How many times did he move around and find someone down field? That was their entire offense. Their quarterback had to make something out of nothing every time he dropped back. And it nearly worked against the best defense in the league. The same defense that held Aaron Rodgers to 77 yards passing. Cutler was the best player on the field.

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