If you’ve missed our postseason positional analysis columns over the last two weeks, click the link below to see all of the work in one document. Print it out! Read it on the train! Take it on an airplane! Hand it out to friends as a birthday present!
I have no idea what’s going to happen this weekend. Not a single result would surprise me. So I’m going back to picking SOMETHING for these games. I finished the season six over .500. Still have a chance to get to ten over. But I need a strong performance. (For some reason I didn’t include spreads last week but I would have gone 2-2 any way you slice it.)
Here’s what Bill Belichick knows: his offensive line can’t protect Tom Brady from the Chiefs pass rush. And since no coach in history has been better at self-evaluation, he won’t ask them to try. Instead Brady will go to the quick-release pass attack with Edelman Edelman Edelman and neutralize Houston, Hali and company. I think it works. Not sure if Pats are healthy enough to win but they are healthy enough to score.
I am going to be rooting very hard in this game so I’m making an emotional hedge. Would love to lose this one.
Here are the Carolina scores over the last 8 games: 27, 44, 33, 41, 38, 38, 13, 38. I say they play with a chip on their shoulder as the media at-large keeps trying to convince fans the team is overrated. (2015 Panthers remind me an awful lot of the 2006 Bears. Nobody thought that team could make the Super Bowl until their plane landed in Miami.) Bold prediction: Panthers beat them up.
I will not be making a selection in the Broncos/Steelers game as there’s no point. Unless someone can prove to me Roethlisberger will be healthy it’s a sucker’s wager. But without Antonio Brown I’d need a big number to take Pittsburgh.
This is, by far, the hardest position group to evaluate within an organization because it is not only an evaluation of individual performance but also of the collective whole.
Right now the Bears have three tight ends on the roster worth discussing. Without further adieu, the least exciting of our postseason positional analysis columns.
The strangest move of the Ryan Pace era was dealing a sixth-round pick to the Texans for Lee, a tight end who is an exclusive blocker. (His attempts to catch Cutler passes have been comical.) If you’re looking for cutting edge analysis of Lee’s work as an additional member of the offensive line, you might want to look elsewhere. In the meantime, let’s assume Lee will be back in 2016 to validate surrendering the draft pick for the acquisition.
34 catches, 439 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Miller has been one of the best stories of the season and from the way both he and the Bears have spoken it would be a surprise to not see him back in 2016. The only question now is how the Bears create a fair contract to compensate Miller for his production while considering his injury history. 2 years, $6-8M.
53 catches, 439 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Everyone has heard the talk and Ryan Pace’s silence all-but cemented the fact that Bennett has worn out his welcome in the Bears locker room. Pace and Fox are trying to establish a culture and Bennett clearly does not fit within that culture.
You know what? I don’t care.
If the Bears can ever get — and stay — healthy at the wide receiver position, their offense should really take off. Their top four receivers missed a combined 36 games, with the only one playing over half their snaps being Marquess Wilson. Youngers players stepped up and made plays but the position, expected to be a strength, ended up being a weakness.
If you took the numbers Alshon Jeffery put up in 8 1/2 games this season and calculated them out to a 16-game total, you see a star. The numbers are roughly 102 catches, 1,520 yards and eight touchdowns. Looks great, but you can’t give him credit for 16 games when he doesn’t play 16 games. Injuries are his biggest problem and there’s no reason to think they will go away. So how do the Bears assign him a value?
By not signing Jeffery before the season, the Bears made it clear they didn’t view him as an elite receiver. As good as he was at times, it’s hard to say he did anything to increase his value. The Bears can’t let Jeffery hit the open market, however, because someone else will offer him top-tier receiver money and Chicago doesn’t have a replacement. Whether it be with the Franchise Tag or a long-term contract, the Bears need to bring Jeffery back.
We don’t know what Kevin White is. We think he’s a stud and when we hear Ryan Pace say he can’t wait to “unleash” him, it makes us believe that even more. Still, he’s going to be raw and nobody has a clue what kind of long-term effects the leg injury might have on him.
Ryan Pace went out of his way to salute the Bears running backs room in his postseason presser and why wouldn’t he? Matt Forte, Jeremy Langford and Ka’Deem Carey were arguably the most versatile and dynamic backfield in the league.
Forte can do everything. Langford looks like he’ll be able to do everything. Carey was the ideal third back, most useful in short yardage and down around the goal line. (He also contributed on specials.)
Six weeks ago I would have said the Bears were crazy to re-sign Forte at his age and somewhat declining skills but my tune has changed significantly. Why? A few reasons.
(1) Bears are building a power run offensive line and having two top of the line backs was how John Fox found success in Carolina.
(2) Short passing game is essential to this offense and Bears may not be ready to allow Langford to exclusively assume that role as he’s been far too inconsistent catching the ball in big spots.
(3) Forte is still really good and there’s no reason to believe he’s going to fall off the cliff in 2016. Bears shouldn’t break the bank and bring him in on a long-term deal but two years at $5M per is reasonable and fair.
UPDATE 11:44 AM ET: Gase is now officially the Dolphins head coach. He’ll be formally announced at a 3 PM press conference.
Adam Gase is set to be named the new head coach of the Miami Dolphins and the Bears will now looking for a new offensive coordinator. Will it be the logical, in-house promotion of Dowell Loggains or a Foxy favorite like Ken Whisenhunt?
Many options are available to the Bears but remember one thing: very little will change. John Fox knows what offense he wants to run. The Bears ran it in 2015. They will run it in 2016.
Administrative Note: We’ll resume our postseason positional analysis columns on Monday with running backs, Tuesday with wide receivers, Wednesday with tight ends & Thursday we’ll wrap up the offensive side of the ball with our analysis of the line. (Defense will come after the division round.)
Am I willing to embrace the notion of Brian Hoyer winning a postseason game? No, I’m not. Am I willing to cast my support unabashedly for Andy Reid in a postseason game? No, I’m not. But since I picked the Chiefs to make the Super Bowl in August I might as well continue seeing red. And on a football note, the Chiefs don’t look to throw the ball downfield so their short passing attack should be able to neutralize the Houston’s greatest asset: Watt, Whitney and the pass rush. Chiefs 20, Texans 13
Here’s what I keep hearing from folks analyzing the wildcard round: nobody wants to play the Pittsburgh Steelers. Here’s my follow-up question: why? The Steelers controlled their road to the postseason and lost to Marc Trestman and Ryan Mallett! (And the game wasn’t particularly close.) Then in Week 17 the Steelers were horrible against Cleveland, with Big Ben throwing ugly picks to second-rate linebackers. If Austin Davis weren’t starting for the Browns and they didn’t decide to fumble away the second half, the Jets would be in the playoffs. So is Pittsburgh just going to turn it on? Bengals 24, Steelers 22
Over the next few weeks, we’ll be evaluating each of the position groupings of the 2015 Bears. Today we’ll start with quarterbacks. Monday we’ll address running backs, Tuesday wide receivers, Wednesday tight ends and Thursday the offensive line. Defense will come the following week.
Jay Cutler did everything possible in 2015 to earn the starting quarterback job in 2016. He showed a command of the offense, assumed a serious, vocal leadership role, limited his risk/reward tosses and overcame a myriad of injuries at the skill spots and offensive line to provide Bears fans a season far more entertaining than was expected from their shaky roster.
He’s the guy. Indisputably.
But behind Cutler, what are the Bears doing at the position? Nothing.
Chicago determined David Fales was worth protecting from pilferage, I guess. But the decisions was less a vote of confidence in Fales’ ability and more an extreme willingness to allow James Clausen a one way ticket to Anywhere, USA. And while Matt Blanchard continues to taxi on the Bears runway, the chances of him ever finding Gate 53 are slim.
• “Of course everybody’s frustrated, man. We were 6-10, that’s not acceptable.” That quote in itself may not mean a whole lot to most, but, to me I see it as Ryan Pace not losing track of the fact that he is in charge of a bad team. There seem to be quite a few people who have lost track of that fact. The pressure is on Pace and John Fox to make sure 6-10 doesn’t happen again and they know it.
• Going 1-7 at home isn’t OK, but five of the losses came to playoff teams and another came with a preseason lineup against a team that went 6-2 down the stretch. I’m not going to freak out about it that much.
• All of the talk about Jay Cutler’s decrease in interceptions was pretty dumb. You saw on Sunday, a lot of times, the interceptions are more about dumb luck. He’s just as good now as he’s always been.
