Did the Buffalo Bills hold Tyrod Taylor back or was it the other way around? That’s the question I kept asking myself as I watched him play.

There were times where Taylor was Russell Wilson.

There were other times where I wondered if the Bills called conservative games because Taylor was their quarterback.

This same debate is prevalent among Buffalo media, who are radically divided on Taylor’s tenure with the Bills.

Buffalo GM Doug Whaley doesn’t like Taylor. Taylor was Rex Ryan’s guy and even though new Buffalo offensive coordinator Rick Dennison is said to be a fan of Taylor’s, Whaley isn’t like to care. Most signs point to the Bills opting out of Taylor’s lucrative contract and the 27-year-old hitting the open market.

He’ll get paidt for his play the last two seasons, with passer ratings of 99.4 and 89.6, but nobody really knows what they’re getting. He could be a quality player on the ascent or he could be a player destined for mediocrity.

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The common thought of people covering the NFL is that the Cincinnati Bengals should try to find an upgrade over quarterback Andy Dalton. A common thought among many Bears fans is the team should bring in Dalton’s backup to be their new starter.

It is every bit as illogical as it sounds.

Every time someone suggests the Bears trade for Jimmy Garoppolo, someone chimes in that they should spend less and bring in AJ McCarron instead. McCarron is a fine player but his current job is where he belongs. There is no shame in backing up Tom Brady like Garoppolo has had to do, but if McCarron were capable of being a top tier starting quarterback, he wouldn’t be watching Dalton take all the snaps.

McCarron did some nice things when he got to play at the end of 2015. He made several good throws down the field and consistently showed good touch on deep passes. He’s an NFL quarterback but not all guys are meant to be starters.

The Alabama product’s stats are fine. He completed 66.4 percent of his passes for six touchdowns, two interceptions and a passer rating of 97.1. If you took his averages from the four starts — including the playoffs — and averaged them out over 16 games, it would come out to roughly 3,500 yards with 24 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Not bad, but he was playing in a stacked offense. Dalton managed a passer rating of 106.2.

When I watched McCarron, the performance didn’t match the statistics. I had him with an inaccuracy rate of 33.4 percent in his four starts. While he only threw two interceptions, he had a number of other passes that should have been picked off. It was Josh McCownesque.

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This is the 2nd installment of a monthly offseason piece I’ll be doing here at DaBearsBlog, helping fill the content void of the long offseason. Each one will be a numbers-crunching look at something Bears related in which I attempt to earn the “Data” moniker so kindly bestowed on me by the comments section regulars and, more importantly, answer a Bears question that I’ve been wondering about. If you have anything you’d like me to look into, let me know in the comments or email me at woodjohnathan1@gmail.com and I’ll see what I can do. 

By all accounts, it seems the Bears will be acquiring the man they hope will be their quarterback of the future this offseason. Ryan Pace was spotted scouting pretty much all of the top quarterbacks in person throughout last fall, and his end of the season press conference was centered around a discussion of what he’ll be looking for in a franchise quarterback.

With that in mind, it would be wise for any Bears fan to pay close attention to the quarterbacks at the top of the draft this year. I started doing just that back in November, when I looked at quarterbacks drafted between 2011 and 2015 and found teams looking for a starter should focus on the top of round 1 or round 2 (http://bit.ly/2lhS3t0). Luckily for the Bears that fits either of their first two picks.

Building an Ideal QB Profile

Now I want to focus on what they should be looking for with one of those picks (thanks to DBB’s Andrew Dannehy for giving me this idea). Here’s how I went about doing that:

• I looked at all 1st and 2nd round QBs drafted between 2011 and 2015 and compiled a bunch of data about their physical measurements, passing stats from their last year in college, and team success in college. The full list can be seen here: http://bit.ly/2kQ8v2L.
• I split the QBs into guys who are established starters (Newton, Luck, Mariota, Winston, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Dalton, Carr), guys who might be starters going forward (Kaepernick, Garoppolo, Bortles), and everybody else.
• I averaged the data together for each group and especially compared starters vs. everybody else (non-starters). 6 traits were identified that were significantly different.
• For each trait, I sorted the quarterbacks from best to worst and looked for a “benchmark” value, which most of the starters hit and most of the non-starters missed. This always fell such that 5 or 6 of the 8 starters were above the benchmark; there was typically a significant dropoff after this point such that this was a logical cutoff.

Based on this, here’s the ideal profile I found to look for in a highly drafted QB coming out of college:

• He should win at least 77% of his college starts (6/8 starters hit, 3/9 nonstarters)
• He should win a conference title (6/8 starters hit, 4/9 nonstarters)
• His final college season should feature at least 8.7 yards per passing attempt (5/8 starters hit, 3/9 nonstarters)
• His final college season should feature a touchdown on at least 7.3% of his throws (6/8 starters hit, 3/9 nonstarters)
• His final college season should feature a TD/INT ratio of at least 3.7:1 (6/8 starters hit, 2/9 nonstarters)
• His final college season should feature a college passer rating of at least 166 (5/8 starters hit, 2/9 nonstarters)

There didn’t seem to be any difference in the physical profiles of the QBs based on their height, weight, or hand size at the Combine. The important part of the Combine for QBs is their interviews, but we don’t get that data. Ignore the measurables; they are basically irrelevant for QBs.

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Three questions:

(1) Are you, the loyal commenters, even interested in gathering for the draft at a bar in Chicago? I would be happy to lead the way and put something together, get a bar on board, provide sponsored giveaways…etc.

(2) Is it easier to do something like this on Thursday night for the first round or just wait and do it on Saturday for rounds 4-7? That way it’s a Saturday and more convenient for people.

(3) Where would people want it? Downtown is usually convenient but I’d be very flexible.

Just comment below. I’ll keep track over next few days.

On the Weekend Show, no guests!!! But Jeff rants on three topics: (1) the quarterback position moving forward. (2) the raising of ticket prices. (3) the myth of “sustained success”.

In April, DaBearsBlog is joining our principal sponsor Art of Men (ArtofMen.org) and Cook County Commissioner Bridget Gainer for a city-wide book drive across Chicago to benefit the young men and women at the county’s Juvenile Temporary Detention Center (JTDC). These kids have not all been convicted of crimes. Many come from terrible home environments and are trapped in the system. They feel forgotten. But we don’t forget them. It is impossible to quantify the impact the act of handing one of these kids a book can have.

Donation boxes will be available at more than 100 bars and restaurants, with hundreds of AoM members providing thousands of books.

(I will also be setting up shop at a bar in Chicago for the duration of the NFL Draft this season and would love for many of you to come and say hello. More on that in the coming weeks.)

IF YOU ARE CLOSE WITH A BAR OWNER WHO’D LIKE TO PARTICIPATE OR WOULD LIKE TO HELP RECRUIT BARS (FOR DECENT MONEY), EMAIL ME: JEFF@DABEARSBLOG.COM

Biographies

Art of Men is a member-based organization reaching men of every demographic in all fifty states. It’s outreach, initiatives and project database (artofmen.org/projects) enable men to utilize their wisdom, skills and experience to make the lives of those in their community better. “Together we make an impact. Together we leave an enduring legacy.”

Commissioner Bridget Gainer was Noted by MSNBC’s Chuck Todd as a rising star in Illinois politics, Commissioner Gainer was elected to the Cook County Board in 2010. With an M.B.A. from the University of Chicago and a strong background in finance, Commissioner Gainer’s first act as a County Commissioner was to create Cook County’s first Pension Committee.

Commissioner Gainer has devoted special interest to the women and children in the County’s criminal justice system. She eliminated the practice of separating new mothers awaiting trial from their newborns, led the fight to ban shackling pregnant detainees during delivery, created the first citizen advisory Board for the Juvenile Detention Center and continues to lead the fight to reduce the number of non-violent offenders in County Jail.

The Juvenile Temporary Detention Center provides temporary secure housing for youth from the age of 10 through 16 years, who are awaiting adjudication of their cases by the Juvenile Division of the Cook County Courts. The Center also provides care for youth who have been transferred from Juvenile Court jurisdiction to Criminal Court. These youth would otherwise be incarcerated in the county jail.

The best value in the quarterback market this offseason will be a guy who has been productive, led his team to a Super Bowl and possesses crazy physical skills. He will also likely have a difficult time finding a job.

Colin Kaepernick went against the grain and took a stand, or, rather, a knee and NFL teams don’t like guys who are different. In their mind, different is difficult and unless it’s a superstar it isn’t worth the trouble. NFL coaches and owners don’t want to admit this, but it has proven to be true time after time.

Kaeperick transcended football in the amount of much attention he received for what he did on the sidelines. But when he was on the field, he was actually pretty good. Why would any team serious about upgrading their quarterback position not kick the tires on the guy?

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Early in Jay Cutler’s career with the Bears, he led the Bears to a win on Monday Night Football. This wasn’t enough to satisfy ESPN’s Steve Young who went on a crazy rant about the so-called “art of quarterbacking” simply because he didn’t like the way Cutler played.

It was the kind of pretentious bullshit that makes Young and Trent Dilfer hard to listen to. They want everyone to play the quarterback position a certain way –  the way that makes guys like Marc Trestman ejaculate – and everyone who doesn’t is just wrong. Cutler didn’t play that way. They still can’t stand it.

Personally, I only care about getting the job done. It was rarely pretty and the stats weren’t glorious, but Cutler was effective on that night as he has been in most games. You don’t get points for beauty in the NFL but there’s still a certain something a quarterback has to have.

Jay Cutler has it. Mike Glennon does not.

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