We’ve got a few scouting reports coming later this week, but for today I’ve got a pair of Caleb Williams clips:
When it comes to Caleb Williams, plays like this get me much more excited than the 10+ second highlight extensions — watch this pocket movement.
RT beat, steps up. Feels LT & LG losing, sinks back for space. Whips a 3rd down completion amidst chaos. Rare pocket feel imo. pic.twitter.com/pLPQHTegbo
— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) April 15, 2024
Zierlein Comparison: Brian Burns
Zierlein Overview: “Long and athletic with the explosive traits needed to become an impactful NFL pass rusher. Turner’s first-step quickness and elite closing burst are important building blocks, but he still needs to work on his process from Point A to Point B. He hasn’t learned to create the space and angles needed to consistently attack the edges, but that should come with better hand development and a more diversified approach. A team would be wise to widen him out and allow him a better runway to ignite his burst and overwhelm tackles with his speed. He’s added 20 pounds since coming to Alabama, but he struggles at times to stack and shed run blockers or set a firm edge. Turner’s frame and game are much less developed than Will Anderson Jr.’s coming out of Alabama last year, so it could take time for him to make his mark as a starting 3-4 outside linebacker.”
Video:
Zierlein Comparison: LaMarr Woodley
Zierlein Overview: “Talented edge defender with the field demeanor, athleticism and skill set to rack up statistics in key categories fairly early in his NFL career. Verse dominated at Albany and then showed an ability to do the same at Florida State. He’s twitchy and compact, with explosiveness featured at the point of attack and in his upfield burst as a pass rusher. He’s great with his hands and does a nice job of diagnosing plays quickly and staying out of the clinches of offensive linemen looking to snatch him up. Verse’s ability to threaten the edge only bolsters his hellish speed-to-power bull-rushing ability to run tackles deep into the pocket. He can play up or down and should be in consideration for all defensive schemes looking to add a safe, high-impact edge.”
Video:
Thanks for putting up with this one folks, meatier things coming soon.
The Draft comes quickly…
…Soon Chicago fans will know…
…the team’s new leaders.
Ryan Poles is just a few days away from running his 3rd NFL draft for the Chicago Bears. Now that we have two years of draft history to go on, let’s dive in to see what lessons might apply for 2024.
The first and most clear trend is that Ryan Poles likes to draft athletic players. We see this through a few different metrics:
To be fair, most of the high draft picks in the NFL are athletic players. Thus, this lesson doesn’t really tell us specific names the Bears might target. But it does let us look for players at need positions the Bears might avoid.
The overwhelming majority of players projected to go in the top 2 rounds have a high RAS, but there are a few highly rated guys who aren’t super athletic, like DE Darius Robinson (3.97 RAS) or C Zach Frazier (6.46 RAS), and it seems unlikely the Bears will be interested in a player like that.
Once you start to get into the middle rounds, there are more guys who aren’t great athletes, and I will be surprised to see the Bears target anybody from this list of mid-round players at positions of need:
Through 2 drafts, Poles has pulled off 8 trades that involved pick swaps. In 7 of those, he moved down to create extra picks, which seems to be his preference. Given that the Bears currently only have 4 draft picks for this year, I anticipate we will see him trade down at least once to pick up extra selections, and I won’t be shocked to see multiple trade downs.
The Bears’ pre-draft actions also hint that they are heavily considering trading down early in the draft. Teams are limited to bringing in 30 players for pre-draft visits, and the Bears have used several of them on players projected to go in the 20-50 range despite not currently having a pick between 9 and 75.
That’s a whole lot of players – more than 20% of their allotted visits – who are projected to go in a range where the Bears have no picks, which indicates to me they are seriously considering trading back from the 9th pick.
To be fair, Chicago has also done their homework on potential fits if they stick at number 9, as they’ve brought in with players ranked 5th (WR Malik Nabers), 6th (WR Rome Odunze), 8th (Dallas Turner), and 10th (Brock Bowers) on the consensus big board. My guess is that the Bears will have 1-2 guys they would take at pick 9 if they are available, but otherwise will look to trade back a bit and pick up an extra pick or two in the draft.
It’s also worth noting that Poles also showed a willingness to move up in the draft for a guy he covets last year, when he gave up a 4th round pick to move from 61 to 56 and secure CB Tyrique Stevenson. Given the small number of picks this year, a trade up seems less likely, but Poles could get creative and look to move up with 2025 draft capital. They currently have an extra 2nd round pick for next year, and that could be packaged with pick 122 this year to get into the 2nd round (this is what the Bears did to trade up for WR Anthony Miller in 2018).
Another trend we’ve seen clearly through Poles’ first two drafts is the willingness to draft 2 or even 3 players at the same position.
It’s hard to envision a double dip this year with only 4 picks, but if they pick up a few extra selections via trade down, then it could be a real possibility. The two positions I could see that most realistically happening at are DE and WR. In both cases, the Bears need another starter, which could prompt a high pick, and there’s also room for a later pick to push for a roster spot against pretty weak depth.
Once again, the Bears have already hinted at this possibility. Head coach Matt Eberflus was caught on mic telling Ryan Poles they should “take two of them” while watching defensive linemen work out at the Combine.
Another clear trend we see is that Poles loves to invest in defense early in the draft. Five of his seven day 1-2 picks have been spent on defenders, despite the Bears having just as many (if not more) offensive needs over the last two years. This trend has carried over to veteran signings as well, where the Bears have handed out significantly more money to the defense ($115M/year, $226M guaranteed) than offense ($58M/year, $89M guaranteed).
This is what happens when you double down on a defensive head coach who likes to run a simple scheme that requires high level players to work (rather than winning schematically), and I fully expect the trend to continue in 2024. Outside of QB, which is obviously going to be the #1 pick, Chicago has 2 clear holes in their current starting lineup: WR3 (currently Tyler Scott) and DE2 (currently DeMarcus Walker). I fully expect them to prioritize defensive end as being more important. Depending on how they view Gervon Dexter, they might also see 3-technique defensive tackle as a huge need as well.
In short, here are the four main lessons we have learned from Ryan Poles’ first two drafts:
The last three trends all seem to be aligning nicely, in my view. If Ryan Poles trades back from pick 9, he will be in range to invest a first round pick on a pass rusher (DEs like Jared Verse or Chop Robinson or DTs like Byron Murphy or Johnny Newton feel like possible targets), and then have extra picks he can spend to further bolster the pass rush later in the draft.
There is no saying for sure how the draft will unfold – I am sure the Bears’ ultimate action at 9 depends on what happens between picks 2 and 8 – but my read of Poles’ draft history, plus Chicago’s moves so far this offseason – makes me think that is his plan A.
Last Friday saw the latest Bear With Us launch, covering Caleb Williams and the #9 overall pick…
And then over the weekend, Jeff and I caught up on what he’s hearing about #9 overall (plus a full mock of the craziness that may lead up to Chicago’s pick.
Link: https://t.co/9wuFHdCznt
— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) April 6, 2024
More Nine at #9 tomorrow.
Your Turn: Does the draft still feel far away? Or does it finally feel around the corner?
Tomorrow, Robert and I will be hosting a DBB Spaces on Twitter at 1 PM ET. This will be an episode dedicated entirely to the ninth pick in the draft. How will it work?
The plan is for this episode to last two hours. We want your voices to be heard. It should be a lot of fun.
I’m drowning in tape, scouting reports should start flowing over the next few weeks.
In the meantime… here’s a sneak preview of one of our next targets. I L L
Your Turn: What’s your take on the Illinois star?
Nine at #9 will continue tomorrow
Your Turn: Illini fans, what are your thoughts on Newton?
Over the next few days, my hope is to detail the names and faces behind a few of my favorite options for Chicago at #9 overall.
Today, we’ll kick off the miniseries with a cut-up of University of Texas 3-Technique Byron Murphy II, whose tape I imagine will make Matt Eberflus jumping out of his chair. We know Eberflus wants an explosive 3-Tech in the middle of his defense, and that’s exactly who Murphy is — a disruptive playmaking machine with experience across the entire defensive interior.
When Murphy flashes, he flashes. At times, Murphy’s combination of lower-body power and dynamic hand-usage makes him look unblockable while rushing the passer. Check out the first 4 clips of the cut-up below — his offensive linemen barely stop his momentum en route to the quarterback. At times, they don’t even get a hand on him.
Byron Murphy's tape is a blast — his explosiveness is obvious, his motor is relentless, but it's his hand-usage & feel for leverage that put him over the top imo. Can rush speed-to-power, swat hands, and win 1v1 rush lanes.
21 years old. Have to think the #Bears are interested pic.twitter.com/B3JsIB54KC
— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) April 2, 2024
Athletically speaking, Murphy is quite short in stature but excellent in most other measurable categories. His 10 yard split & broad/vertical jumps are great signals for his explosiveness, but Murphy’s weight also stands out to me — weighing at 297lbs at the combine (and listed at 308 on Texas’ official website), Murphy stayed away from being a size outlier and instead registers as ‘pretty small’. In a league that’s moving closer and closer to 280lb 3-techniques every day, I think the extra 10-15lbs he’ll to carry compared to other defenders of similar quickness will be a major advantage for him in run defense.
