The Combine just ended and NFL free agency is about to kick off. Teams and agents were already talking in Indianapolis, and the official legal tampering period starts next Monday.

With that in mind, I’m going to lay out both positions and players I think the Bears should target. I’ll explain my rationale for each, detail why they are a good fit, and try to provide a contract estimate. I’m not going to address smaller depth needs – backup QB, 3rd RB, etc. Just the main contracts that will take up most of the cap room.

Salary Cap

The Bears are currently projected to have around $80 million in cap space after accounting for their eventual draft picks, so they have plenty of money to work with. They could also clear up to another $15 million by cutting Dion Sims ($5.7 million), Markus Wheaton ($5 million), and Marcus Cooper ($4.5 million).

As we’ll see below, however, they have a number of significant needs to address, and that’s before you begin to consider extensions for in-house candidates like Eddie Goldman, Adrian Amos, and Cam Meredith, which GM Ryan Pace said at the Combine were being discussed.

The Bears have money to spend. But they can’t just throw it around willy-nilly because that money won’t go as far as many might casually think from looking at the large number.

Wide Receiver

I’ve already spent a lot of time talking about wide receiver this offseason, so this discussion is going to be short. I think the Bears should try to add two players, one to be a WR2 and one as a WR3. There are plenty of FA options available for both roles who fit their new offense well.

As I stated before, my ideal targets would be Marqise Lee as the WR2 and Albert Wilson as the WR3. Lee has proven to be reliable, while Wilson knows the offense, and seemingly has a strong relationship with Matt Nagy. Both are fits.

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All right, Bears fans. We’re still a couple weeks out from the official start of free agency, and while a few noteworthy cuts, extensions, trades and franchise tags have all taken place we’re still pretty much just…. waiting.

I’m not a data wizard like John, nor covering a lot of breaking Bears news like Andrew, so I’m diving headfirst into the deep, consequence-free waters of speculation. Think of this article more like a conversation between two drinking buddies at the bar. Open a beer while you read if it helps, and come join me! The waters are warm and not to be taken too seriously.

This week we’re talking about expectations. More specifically, two teams I think will exceed expectations in 2018, and two I think are heading towards disappointment. I also picked one (wild guess, complete dark horse, probably doesn’t stand a chance, but what the hell, it’s March?) team that I feel on a gut level might have a breakthrough year.

I tried to mostly steer clear of the super obvious (by that I mean I didn’t pick the Browns to still be terrible), and it goes without saying (but I’m going to say it, anyways) that moves made in free agency and the draft, along with the other 50 million variables that might change a course of a season, could greatly affect my views on these five teams come the start of the season.

For now these are my predictions:

Two Teams Primed to Improve

Chicago Bears

I mean, this is DBB, guys. Obviously I’m going to include them. Most every fan has it in their hearts that *this year* is going to be *the year* their team gets awesome, right? The great news for Bears fans is this year we actually do have a lot to be excited about! Including:

• A talented young QB who has the potential to make a significant leap from Year 1 to Year 2.
• A new energetic head coach and a high quality support staff bound to inject energy into the locker room.
• A good amount of cap space so Pace can target quality players that can do things like “run routes” and “catch the ball”.
• Prestige and history that comes with playing for a franchise as distinguished as the Bears makes Chicago a very attractive location for top free agents.

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On this week’s episode of DaBearsPod:

• Scott Wright of NFLDraftCountdown.com on (a) why this is not the ideal draft class for the Bears to rebuild at the receiver and edge rusher positions. (b) why he thinks the league may be sleeping on LSU wideout DJ Chark, who he compares (hesitantly) to Michael Thomas. (c) Texas OT Connor Williams possibly falling this week. (d) Quenton Nelson and what will be a hotly-debated QB class. (e) Much, much more…

•Reverend Dave wakes up in the middle of the night and mumbles his sermon into a microphone like Bukowski. It has to be heard to be believed. It’s his masterpiece.

•Prokofiev! Music!

Matt Forte formally announced his retirement Wednesday. Read the full text of that announcement HERE.

My favorite Matt Forte highlight of all time. #Bears pic.twitter.com/AflPpUYLRC

— David Chasanov (@AllThatChazz1) February 28, 2018

Three Thoughts on Forte:

• Forte should be saluted for fighting through 2014 – the most embarrassing season in the history of the Chicago Bears. That year, Trestman’s last, Forte rushed for over a thousand yards and caught over a hundred passes.
• Arguments can be made for Sayers (short spell) and Nagurski (different era) but Forte is the second best Bears running back of all-time.
• Forte was the perfect fit for the modern game, an “air back”, and I give him a lot of credit for not hanging on an extra season in order to eclipse the 10,000-yard rushing mark. Forte isn’t going to the Hall of Fame but hitting that landmark would have most likely improved any case he intended to make.

The NFL’s annual meat market is here.

Don’t listen to anyone who tells you it doesn’t matter. The Bears, in particular, seem to value athleticism with their early picks and there’s no reason to think this year will be any different.

Here are a few players to watch when the combine really gets rolling later this week.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

Ridley is generally thought to be the top wide receiver but there are questions about whether or not he deserves to be a top-10 pick.

After a 1,000-yard season as a freshman, Ridley failed to reach that mark again in his final two years. While much of the blame for that has gone to Alabama’s horrendous quarterback play, there are still questions about the wideout.

One major thing NFL teams will need to see is if Ridley is taller than six-feet, like he is listed. If he comes in shorter, teams are going to question his ability to play outside. Since 2010 only two receivers who measured under six-feet were drafted in the top-10. Neither — Tavon Austin and John Ross —  have worked out so far.

Even if he is six-foot-one, Ridley needs to show he has at least good athletic ability to create separation from defenders.

Read DBB’s Saturday Scout column on Ridley HERE.

Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

You don’t often see off-the-ball linebackers who look and move like Edmunds.

Expected to measure in at around 6’5″, 250 pounds, Edmunds is a player a lot of teams are going to want to take a close look at. In addition to his freakish size, he flies around the ball and could be a menace covering the middle of the field.

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In the last two weeks, I’ve outlined both what the Bears need to add at WR this off-season and what players in free agency should fit that profile/the new offense. At the end of that work, I came up with the following two lists, suggesting that the Bears work to sign one player from each group.

Tier 1 (750+ yard receivers)

Marqise Lee, Jordan Matthews, Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders (if cut)

Tier 2 (500+ yard receivers)

Albert Wilson, Kendall Wright, John Brown, Taylor Gabriel, Paul Richardson, Jaron Brown

Now I want to look at what types of contracts those players should expect in free agency to see how expensive these moves would likely be for the Bears. In order to do that, you need to compare the contracts signed by similar players (in both age and past production) who hit free agency in recent years. This gives you a general baseline for the ballpark a new contract should probably be in, though of course there are no guarantees this is exactly how it works out.

In an effort to be as accurate as possible, I also accounted for inflation, since the cap keeps going up every year. It’s jumped by about $10 million a year every year since 2015, and is expected to do the same again this year. Thus the comparable contracts were multiplied by the following scaling factors to get the predicted value, depending on when they were signed (some slight adjustments were made for greater/worse production):

• 2015: 1.24
• 2016: 1.15
• 2017: 1.07

Let’s look through each target 1 by 1, with a few brief comments. Full data for production of targets and free agent contracts can be seen here. All contract information is from Spotrac.

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Alshon Jeffery: American Hero

Jeffery played 2017 with a torn rotator cuff. Just a few weeks after he and the Philadelphia Eagles won Super Bowl 52, it was announced that Jeffery underwent surgery for the injury that has all-but guaranteed he’ll miss the entirety of Philly’s off-season program and has put the start of the 2018 regular season in jeopardy.

A few questions:

• Did the team know? If they did, how can this not get publicly reported all season? Was Jeffery never even PROBABLE with a rotator cuff tear? He was just 100%, good-to-go? If you have a torn rotator cuff, that injury is not one that can’t be hampered more severely in-game.
• Why did Jeffery play? Cash. The league made it very clear to Jeffery’s team they did not believe he could either (a) stay healthy or (b) play through pain? This season he proved he (a) can’t stay healthy and (b) can play through pain. But what will the long-term ramifications be of his playing hurt to get a lucrative extension? We’ll know more in September and beyond.
• There’s been a lot of talk about Jeffery leaving Chicago because the Bears would not pay him. That talk is incorrect. I urge people to go back and read some actual reporting in this space that detailed what Jeffery was offered and how things turned out.

NFL Loves High School Coaches Now

A nice new twist the NFL is doing this year for players accepting an invite to the draft: Bringing the player’s high school coach with them, all expenses paid.

— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) February 22, 2018

Here’s an idea for Roger Goodell. FIX THE DAMN LEAGUE! STOP WORRYING ABOUT THE DAMN DRAFT AND FIX THE SPORT WHICH YOU COMMISSION.

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Many of you are probably thinking, “This poll is just a way to take up space for the day.” And you’re right. Partly. But this is going to one of four such polls put up in this space prior to kicking off the 2018 campaign. Today. After the first wave of free agency. After the draft. After the preseason. Let’s see how fan enthusiasm changes over the course of the off-season.

In twelve months we could be talking about the Bears as the kingpin of the NFC North, as long as General Manager Ryan Pace pushes the right buttons and quarterback Mitch Trubisky takes a big step in the seven months leading up the 2018 season.

It seems crazy to suggest the team that has finished last in the division the last four seasons could win it next year. But 12 months ago it would’ve been crazy to suggest the Rams could win the NFC West or that the Eagles could win the Super Bowl. The Bears have talent on their roster, they just need two of the three most important men in their organization to deliver.

A lot of credit has been given to the coaching staffs of the Eagles and the Rams –  deservedly so – but their quarterbacks took a leap largely because of their off-season work away from the organization. Both had personal quarterback coaches who helped them hone their fundamentals, an area Trubisky needed a lot of improvement in last year.

A new coaching staff and offense could help Trubisky, but he needs to improve his footwork if he’s ever going to be a great starting quarterback. He seems to understand that because he has already spent time this off-season working with Jared Goff and coaches Tom House and Adam Dedeaux at 3DQB.

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Ryan Pace’s decision to decline the option on Josh Sitton needlessly creates a big hole in the middle of the Bears offense.

There’s no doubting that Sitton isn’t the player he once was, but he was still better than most other guards in 2017. He was stout against the run, held his own as a pass-blocker and — despite his age and, well, shape — his ability to get to the second level was still top of the league. Sitton is a big reason why the Bears have been among the best rushing attacks in the league the last two years.

Sitton wasn’t cheap. But he wasn’t expensive either. His salary cap hit of $8 million would’ve put him 13th among guards. If the Bears try to upgrade in free agency, they’ll almost certainly have to pay more. Sitton’s ex-teammate T.J. Lang, one of the top guards in the 2017 free agent class, signed for $28.5 million over three years; $7.5 million more than Sitton received from the Bears. Lang’s cap hit in 2017 was $10.9 million and jumps up to $11.7 million in 2019.

The Bears could look to the draft to replace Sitton. Quenton Nelson is a popular name, but using the eighth pick on him seems rich.

[Editor’s Note: It’s not!!!]

But Nelson would immediately be slated to make more than Sitton did and about as much as Long earned in his last contract. And there are other questions about Nelson’s athleticism that need answering going forward.

This draft figures to be rich at guard, and the Bears could nab a starter in the second round, but why not keep Sitton and draft a position of need there?

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