The draft is coming and the mocks are rolling in. Here are some projections for the Bears’ first-round selection. As has been proven in the Ryan Pace era, the chances of these being correct are not good.

Scott Wright, NFLDraftCountdown projects Quenton Nelson:

The Bears wisely noted a weak crop of wide receivers in the draft and instead used free agency to provide young quarterback Mitchell Trubisky with some weapons to throw to.  Now they are free to shore up the offensive line with Nelson, who I feel is the best prospect in this class, regardless of position.  It also doesn’t hurt that Nelson’s college offensive line coach Harry Hiestand now holds the same position in the Windy City.

Nelson is a mountain of a man with outstanding strength and power, but also surprising athletic and nimble when pulling and blocking in space.  What really sets Nelson apart though is his aggressiveness, nasty on-field temperament and desire to finish blocks.  I don’t throw my “Elite” grade around lightly and this year Nelson and Penn St. RB Saquon Barkley were the only two prospects to earn that label.  In fact, Nelson is the best true offensive guard prospect I’ve seen in my two decades of covering the NFL Draft.

If Nelson is gone or they want to go in another direction, keep an eye on Virginia Tech OLB Tremaine Edmunds.  The young, athletic, rangy ‘backer has actually been compared to Bears great Brian Urlacher due to his well-rounded skill set and upside.

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In 2016, outside linebacker was considered a strength for the Bears after Lamarr Houston, Willie Young and Pernell McPhee combined for 20.5 sacks. Ryan Pace drafted Leonard Floyd in the first round.

In 2017, the Bears overpaid Mike Glennon and raved about his upside (“fired up”). They signed Mark Sanchez as a competent backup. Ryan Pace drafted Mitch Trubisky.

Those moves weren’t about value dropping to them. They weren’t about “best player available”. In both instances, Pace traded up for the player and surprised many by drafting what wasn’t considered a need.

The lesson is clear. How the Bears identify their needs is not necessarily how the media and fans identify them. And it isn’t just the first round.

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Now that Ryan Pace has been here a while, it’s possible to look at his past drafts to see what lessons can be learned from his approach. This can help us cautiously look ahead to the 2018 draft to see what he might be thinking.

With that goal in mind, I’m going to spend three weeks looking at how Pace has approached the three days of the draft, and then applying that approach to 2018 to see what players are likely being considered for the Bears this year. I looked at day 1 last week, so today will be day 2 (rounds 2-3).

Draft History

2015: Eddie Goldman, DT, 39th pick; Hroniss Grasu, C, 71st pick

2016: Cody Whitehair, OL, 56th pick (after 2 trade downs); Jonathan Bullard, DL, 72nd pick

2017: Adam Shaheen, TE, 45th pick (after trading down)

Trend 1: Trade Down

Ryan Pace has been a big fan of trading down for extra picks in round 2. He did it twice before selecting Cody Whitehair in 2016 and once before taking Adam Shaheen in 2017. Given that the Bears are short a third round pick this year, I think he will be working the phones looking to do that again in round 2.  Read More …

From the desk of:

Jeff Hughes, Editor-in-Chief

DaBearsBlog

Jordan Howard is Good

Honestly, I was just going to write the headline and leave it there. Because the growing number of Bears fans across social media who, due to trade “rumors”, suddenly believe Howard is not a great running back…is starting to sicken me.

Is Howard great in the passing game? No. Point conceded.

But in two seasons Howard has amassed more than 2400 yards on the ground and 15 touchdowns, averaging 4.6 yards a clip. For the “anyone can do that” crowd, show me another back who HAS while:

• Running by second and third-string offensive linemen.
• Running without the luxury of a passing attack.
• Running hurt for nearly HALF those games.

Just show me another back with similar achievement. I will actually spare the effort of looking. There isn’t anyone close.

(He also has 52 catches in that time. Ezekiel Elliot has 58. )

I like Ryan Pace and am supremely optimistic about Matt Nagy. But if they looked at Howard’s body of work with the Bears and thought, “Yea, we don’t need this guy” then I seriously question both men’s ability to evaluate personnel. Howard may not be a prototypical modern running back but he reminds one of what a Bears tailback used to look like. Back when they were a winning organization.

If I was starting a team tomorrow, I wouldn’t want Jordan Howard. I’d want 53 Jordan Howards. And I’d like my odds in the Sunday street fight.

It’s Masters Sunday. And I really don’t care about the Chicago Bears on Masters Sunday. So here’s some videos of former Bears players playing golf.

Jim McMahon. Barefoot.

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Note: thanks to Butch for the cool new header picture

Free agency is settling down, so now is a good time to take a look at where the Bears’ roster currently stands. This will give us a better idea of what minor free agency moves should still be made and where the draft attention should focus for the first few rounds.

Let’s start with a rough depth chart, followed by a few quick thoughts. This is just my estimate of what a depth chart could look like, don’t read too much into details like Roy Robertson-Harris being above Jonathan Bullard, or anything like that.

Reflections, in no particular order:

• The Bears currently have 65 players under contract. They’re scheduled for 7 draft picks, and will likely sign a few more cheap veterans, but there’s going to be plenty of room to fill out the roster with undrafted free agents after the draft. Expect them to bring in at least 15 of them, and thus it’s no surprise that they’ve been meeting with several players projected as possible UDFA targets, including Jonah Trinnaman and Jarvion Franklin.

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Here are a bunch of Around the League thoughts for this random April Thursday.

• I love the Masters. But I don’t care for the people who run the tournament, Augusta National Golf Club. I love professional football. I can’t stand the people who operate the league, it’s thirty-two owners and league office. These are by-and-large shitty, old, racist white guys shepherding a great product.
• This “lowering the head” penalty has been universally panned by players and the NFL’s attempt to rule change brain injuries out of the game (see: kickoff removal) reminds me of golf’s debate over the ball going too far. You can’t legislate strength and speed out of sports. There are more head injuries in the league now, and the ball goes further off the driver face, because the players are bigger, stronger and faster than ever before in human history. In the NFL they are hitting each other at 25 MPH.
• Don’t look now but the Panthers are going to sell for north of $2.5 billion. The Bears, should the McCaskey family ever show interest in selling, would fetch $4 billion, even without owning a lucrative piece of real estate.
• Has there ever been a team attack the NFL off-season like this Rams club? And does anybody really think it’s going to work? One lesson the NFL should learn from this approach: the key to modern success is winning on a good QB’s rookie deal. Once that QB gets his $100 million, the chances of winning consistently drop precipitously.
• What’s been almost as amazing is the Seahawks embracing a down year, referring to 2018 as a “reset”. With Jimmy G. exciting the Bay Area, not hard to imagine Seattle trafficking down the bottom of the NFC West this year.
• Derwin James is a special player and he was profiled here on DBB during this college football season.
• An NFL GM texted me this week: “Everything coming out of the Giants right now is bullshit. Don’t believe any of it.” He’s right.
• When asked if the Redskins were better with Alex Smith than Kirk Cousins, Jay Gruden responded, “Without a doubt.” One day there will be a 30-for-30 on Cousins’ time with Washington. And I will watch the hell out of it because I simply don’t understand his tenure with that team.
• Saw an ESPN segment debating whether Mitch Trubisky will throw 20 TDs this season. He’s going to fly by that number is he stays healthy.

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Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio hasn’t shown a lot of creativity when it comes to how he uses his players, but that just might change if the draft breaks the way many expect. Because if three quarterbacks are taken ahead of the Bears – with Bradley Chubb, Quenton Nelson and Saquon Barkley also going – the best players Ryan Pace might be looking at are versatile defensive backs Derwin James and Minkah Fitzpatrick.

It isn’t really fair or accurate to pigeon hole James or Fitzpatrick as safeties. They both played in the box, as slot corners or nickel linebackers, a significant amount. (An argument can be made that’s where they were at their best.) The Bears would be able to start either player at safety and move them down in sub-packages.

They’d be closer to the line of scrimmage more often than not, but the Bears have never used a player like them under Fangio.

Fangio has had chances to use extra safeties. He just hasn’t.

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Now that Ryan Pace has been here for a while, we can start to look at his past drafts to see what lessons we can learn from his approach. This can help us cautiously look ahead to the 2018 draft to see what he might be thinking.

With that goal in mind, I’m going to spend the next three weeks looking at how Pace has approached the three days of the draft, and then applying that approach to 2018 to see what players are likely being considered for the Bears this year. We’re starting today at the top of the draft. Let’s look first at the history, and then we’ll examine lessons learned.

Draft History

2015: Kevin White, WR, 7th overall

2016: Leonard Floyd, OLB, 9th overall (trade up from 11)

2017: Mitchell Trubisky, QB, 2nd overall (trade up from 3)

Trend 1: Go get your guy

The first thing we should observe is that Ryan Pace is not shy about trading up in round 1 to get the player he has identified as his main target. So keep that in mind as we look at mock drafts with players who might be good fits for the Bears but are projected to go higher than #8.

It’s worth noting that these have all been relatively minor trades just moving up a few spots, which keeps the cost down. Despite reportedly exploring moving up to the top of the draft for Marcus Mariota in 2015, Pace has not been willing to give up multiple high picks in these moves.

Trading up becomes a bit more difficult this year because the Bears are already without a third round pick due to trading up for Trubisky last year, but they do have an extra fourth round pick they could use.

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