481 Comments

Two Days in Dallas: History, Discourse and the (Potential) Role of Sport

| July 19th, 2024


Our Uber driver from DFW to the Hotel ZaZa was named Alan, and he punctuated almost every sentence with a drawn out, eloquently drawled, “Yeahhhhhhhhhhhs.”

My uncle and I asked him what kind of weather we should expect in our two days in Dallas, and he was ready with his answer. “Boys, it’s going to be about 97, but don’t worry, it’s going to feel like a hundred seven. But, hey, that’s Dallas.” Then, a beat. “Yeahhhhhhhhhhhs.”

Strange though it may sound, it had been a dream of mine to see Dealey Plaza since I first saw Oliver Stone’s JFK in the fall of 1992 at ten years old. The film had remained a favorite of mine for thirty years but this fall, taking a course called Visual Historiographies, I reconnected with it, now academically. (If you’re interested in my thoughts on the film’s historical relevance, you can read my piece, Ask the Question_The Historiographic Project of JFK.) It turns out my uncle had also found himself down an “Oswald didn’t act alone” rabbit hole, and the trip materialized over some late-night Guinness on Memorial Day weekend.

It did not disappoint.

Before moving on to some broader thoughts, a few striking observations from the scene of the crime.

  • One need not be a conspiracy theorist to recognize that if Oswald were the lone gunman, it is illogical for him to pass on shooting Kennedy when the motorcade was directly in front of him on Houston Street, and instead waiting for the turn onto Elm and the FAR more difficult shot(s). As far as I’m concerned, the multiple shooters theory begins there.
  • Dealey Plaza is a remarkably condensed space; it is a small plot of land. The picket fence at the grassy knoll, where many believe the kill shot emanated from, is no more than 100 feet from where the president was killed. It is also ideally positioned for that shot.
  • We spent a few hours in the plaza on our first day and decided that evening to return for a few hours the second day. It was the right decision. There is an immense power to the place but it’s less an emotional power (Auschwitz, the Normandy beaches), than an intellectual one. Dealey Plaza makes your mind race. It makes you question everything.
  • If you’re planning to visit, skip the touring trolleys. Experience the Sixth Floor Museum at the Book Depository and map the remainder of your journey alone. Stand behind the picket fence and above the street on the overpass. Have a car drive you to Oswald’s boarding house, and then take the short walk to the site of the Tippit shooting. Then get a car to the Texas Theatre, where Oswald was arrested. Go inside. Have a drink at the bar. See the physical theater where Oswald was arrested. There’s more value to doing these things on your own because it allows you to properly discuss each stop.

Read More …

Tagged: , ,

129 Comments

Training Camp Preview Pod: Offense

| July 18th, 2024

I joined forces with Bill Zimmerman over at Windy City Gridiron to preview the Bears’ Training Camp — if you’re looking for a primer on some of the offense’s upcoming camp stories, look no further!

Coming up, I hope to have a few in-depth training camp previews out on the site… but for now, we’re still in the final days of the offseason. We posted the defensive episode earlier this week, so today’s edition is the corresponding offensive episode.

Tagged: , ,

149 Comments

Training Camp Preview Pod: Defense

| July 16th, 2024

I joined forces with Bill Zimmerman over at Windy City Gridiron to preview the Bears’ Training Camp — if you’re looking for a primer on some of the defense’s upcoming camp stories, look no further!

Coming up, I hope to have a few in-depth training camp previews out on the site… but for now, we’re still in the final days of the offseason. Take in this defensive episode today and I’ll post the corresponding offensive episode soon after.

Tagged: , , , , ,

92 Comments

Establishing (Realistic) Expectations for Austin Booker

| July 10th, 2024

The Bears have three rookies with a chance to play meaningful roles on offense or defense this year, so I want to take some time this week to look at what history can tell us about what to expect for those players, both in their rookie seasons and in their careers. We started with QB Caleb Williams, looked yesterday at WR Rome Odunze, and today we’ll end the series with a look at DE Austin Booker.

The Setup

Booker was drafted in round 5 this year, so to look at historical comparisons I examined all 29 defensive ends selected in round 5 over the last 10 drafts. Full data set can be seen here.

Some might argue that Booker was projected as a 3rd round pick before the draft (he was 85th on the Consensus Big Board), so he should not be compared to typical 5th rounders, but Arif Hasan, who runs the Consensus Big Board, has found that “steals” – players who are drafted appreciably later than their pre-draft media projection – end up performing more in line with their draft slot than their media projected slot, so comparing him to other 5th round picks is still a valid approach.

Rookie Performance

With that in mind, let’s examine how these 29 defensive ends performed as rookies.

Overall, defensive ends drafted in the 5th round didn’t do much; their average stat line was 202 snaps, 12.5 tackles, and 1.5 sacks. Of course, there was a wide fluctuation of outcomes among 29 players, so the table below breaks them up into groups based on how many snaps they played.

Read More …

Tagged: , , ,

59 Comments

Establishing (Realistic) Expectations for Rome Odunze

| July 9th, 2024

The Bears have three rookies with a chance to play meaningful roles on offense or defense this year, so I want to take some time this week to look at what history can tell us about what to expect for those players, both in their rookie seasons and in their careers. We looked yesterday at QB Caleb Williams, and today will focus on WR Rome Odunze, before ending tomorrow with a look at DE Austin Booker.

The Setup

To get a baseline for Odunze, I looked at all WRs drafted near him in the last 10 years. Odunze was drafted 9th overall, so I went +/- 5 picks and looked at WRs drafted between 4th and 14th. This gave a list of 17 players who were viewed fairly similarly to Odunze coming out of college, and enables us to see what history has to say about reasonable expectations for Odunze, both as a rookie and in his career.

Rookie Performance

With that setup in mind, let’s take a look at how those 17 WRs fared as rookies. Full data can be seen here, but the average stat line for these players was 13 games and 680 snaps played, with 91 targets leading to 54 catches for 766 yards and 5 TD.

That’s not bad – those values would have ranked 41st among WR in targets, 46th in receptions, 40th in yards, and 28th in TD. Basically, the average player in this sample has performed like a mid-tier WR2.

Read More …

Tagged: , , ,

108 Comments

Establishing (Realistic) Expectations for Caleb Williams

| July 8th, 2024

The Bears have three rookies with a chance to play meaningful roles on offense or defense this year, so I want to take some time this week to look at what history can tell us about what to expect for those players, both in their rookie seasons and in their careers. We’ll start today with QB Caleb Williams, shift tomorrow to WR Rome Odunze, and end with a look at DE Austin Booker.

The Setup

To get a baseline for Caleb Williams, I looked at the last 10 QBs drafted 1st overall, going back to Sam Bradford in 2010. I only wanted to look at QBs drafted 1st overall because they are significantly different than other highly drafted QBs in a few notable ways:

  • They start immediately. 9 of the 10 #1 picks in this sample started at least 10 games as rookie, with an average of 14.3 starts. 5 of the 19 QBs drafted 2-10 in the same years started fewer than 10 games, with an average of only 10.8 starts for the sample.
  • They have better career outcomes. 7 of the 10 #1 picks in this sample earned significant 2nd contracts to be starting QBs, with the verdict still out on 2023 pick Bryce Young. Only 8 of 19 drafted 2-10 hit the same threshold (I am assuming CJ Stroud will as one of those 8), with the verdict still out on Anthony Richardson.

QBs are by far the most valuable players in the NFL, and so any QB who is widely regarded as a top-level prospect is going to get drafted #1 overall. Accordingly, I want to compare Williams directly to his peers, not to others who might get drafted highly out of desperation.

Rookie performance

With that setup in mind, let’s take a look at how these 10 QBs fared as rookies. Full data can be seen here, but the average stat line for these players was 504 pass attempts, 60% completion, 6.7 yards/attempt, 17 TD, 13 INT, and an 80.2 passer rating.

Read More …

Tagged: , , ,