“When They Zig, You Zag”

-Siimon Reynolds

The Zag.

As the rest of the National Football League tries to get faster, the Chicago Bears added a 260-pound tight end with their first pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Then they raved about his potential as a blocker.

The Bears are doing something very different in 2020.

According to Sharp Football, the Bears ran ’12’ personnel – one RB, two TEs and WRs – on just 13 percent of their snaps in 2019 and 17 percent in 2018. The drafting of Cole Kmet with the 43rd pick was a clear indication that the Bears are going to use the second tight end more. Way more.

After making the pick, GM Ryan Pace raved about Kmet’s all-around ability. He spoke about his size, hands and ability to “post up” and get position. But where Pace really got excited was talking about run blocking. “He’s got the frame and the size, the temperament and the demeanor where we think he’s going to get a lot better as a blocker,” Pace said.

In many ways, the drafting of Kmet was a commitment to a different style of offense, one that will surely feature running back David Montgomery more.

Playing Big.

The Bears didn’t play big in 2019 because they couldn’t succeed that way.

They didn’t have a single, good tight end.

The team passer rating in ’12’ personnel was below 70 and they averaged fewer than four yards per carry. The hope is that Kmet’s ability as a blocker and a receiver makes ’12’ personnel package dangerous.

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12:06 PM ET

I have already opened my second Montauk Summer Ale in the war room. This does not bode well for the diary as a whole. These things are delicious, but they’re also 5.6% alcohol and I’m an Amstel Light/Guinness man. The Bears don’t have a fourth round pick so it’s probably going to be a while before I write something football relevant in this diary.

12:08 PM ET

Anybody else getting a shitload of emails from the Chicago Reader these days? Like every ten minutes. My entire inbox has become emails from the Reader and the DNC and I never read a word from either.

12:16 PM ET

Just saw a commercial for drug called Ilumya. The voiceover said “do not take Ilumya if you’re allergic to Ilumya”. And we wonder why the president thinks drinking Febreze cures pneumonia.

12:23 PM ET

Sarah’s nephew just walked into the war room and now the war room smells like Bob Marley’s tour bus. #SmokinDatReefer

12:34 PM ET

Third beer. Trouble arising. Like the half hour gap between beers but I feel it unsustainable.

12:38 PM ET

This Ben Bartch character apparently drank a disgusting smoothie every morning to gain 50 pounds in a year and move from tight end to tackle. (The fucking thing had peanut butter and Gatorade in it.) I have a fool proof method to gain 50 pounds. Drink a shitload of beer, eat a ton of Chinese food, and sit around. No smoothie needed. My brother Chris did this throughout his 20s and had to get lap band surgery in his 40s.

12:50 PM ET

Every commercial now:

“Our product always liked you. And now, in these uncertain times, we like you even more. So stay safe, stay home and Polly-O String Cheese will be there with you.”

12:53 PM ET

Chris Ballard takes Jacob Eason in Indy. What I was told about Eason: “he’s an incredible turd”. Teams absolutely despised him when they had their meetings. But that talent is worth the gamble on day three.

1:01 PM ET

ESPN finally reported the Eason pick and apparently Chris Ballard lives in an Applebee’s. (I am jealous.)

1:07 PM ET

Beer four. Pacing is terrific.

1:18 PM ET

I’m sitting here hoping Ryan Pace trades up and takes Jake Fromm. I believe in the kid. Always have. Think he’s going to be in NFL QB rooms for a long time.

I’m also sitting here putting off a piss for like 20 minutes because I don’t feel like standing up.

1:28 PM ET

Someone named Luke Bryan is singing a shitty country music song now, for some reason.

An actual lyric. “She was like ‘Come here boy, I wanna dance’. Before I said a word she was taking my hand.”

• Dance and hand don’t rhyme.
• Someone has to explain to these country music people that every single interaction they have with another human being is not worthy subject matter for a song.

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On Friday night, I floated the idea of the Bears trading back in the second round to a friend of mine – a scout for another team in the NFC. He quickly shot back, “Pace shouldn’t back up too far. After about 65, there’s a big drop-off in this class.”

This is the kind of things scouts love to say.

Is it true? Who the hell knows? But what is important is the perception of its truth. If my scout friend believes the 2020 NFL Draft was 65 players deep, so does his organization. If his organization believes that, rest assured it is common throughout the league.

Thus, there was not much jockeying for position in the first and second rounds this year. Teams believed they would get a terrific prospect no matter where they selected. Maybe Ryan Pace had offers, maybe he didn’t. We won’t know and he won’t tell us. And now, it doesn’t matter.

What matters is how Pace approached the second round. His two selections – Notre Dame tight end Cole Kmet and Utah cornerback Jaylon Johnson – were not reaches. They were not gambles on potential, on athletic ability. They were two of the steadiest, sturdiest prospects in the whole of this draft. Immediately after their selection, NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah pronounced, “No first-round pick for the Bears but I think you can argue they got two first-round players.” Every relevant person I texted with Friday night seemed to echo this sentiment.

These are the kinds of picks a team confidently makes when they think they are close. And the Bears are close, especially with Nick Foles’ professionalism taking over under center. The club had needs for September: defensive back, interior offensive line, tight end, speed outside. They addressed two of them. Simple as that. Kmet and Johnson will expected to contribute/start immediately. I’ll state that again. Kmet and Johnson will expected to contribute/start immediately.

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DBB will be on Twitter for the duration of these rounds (right rail, @DaBearsBlog) and will have a full report on the day’s activity up tomorrow in this space.

“No first round pick for the Bears but I think you can argue they got two first round players”. –@MoveTheSticks

— DaBearsBlog (@dabearsblog) April 25, 2020

Listen, I say the same thing every year.

I don’t criticize or applaud the selection. I criticize or applaud the approach. The position is WAY more important than the player. The positions show the direction of the organization. The player…is a coin flip. Every player taken. Coin. Flip.

The Bears needed a tight end. They got the best one in this draft.

The Bears get involved tonight, with two selections scheduled in the second round! DBB will be here with instant commentary once those selections are made.

The Bears are not scheduled to play a role in tonight’s festivities. If they do, return to this space for immediate reaction.

Each year I write this column. Usually, the players turn out to be pretty good because I pay zero attention to anything other than their football games, with this year’s exception of a punter doing bench press reps. I don’t care about their forty times. I don’t care about their three-cone. I just know what happened when they played football games against other football players.

Editor’s Note I: These are not the players I think are the five best in the draft. These are the five I like best.

Editor’s Note II: I loved Mitch Trubisky. I was wrong.

#6. Michael Turk, P, Arizona State

Why is a punter benching this much? Why is a punter benching at all?

He’s a good punter. He’s a legacy player. And he’s got toughness to him. Don’t be surprised if he’s still punting in the league a decade from now.

#5. K.J. Hamler, WR, Penn State

Here are the names usually associated with Hamler:

Ted Ginn Jr.

Tyreek Hill.

Tavon Austin.

Speed. Speed. Speed for days and night and long weekends and bank holidays. The Bears desperately need speed. Hamler has enough to fire up the grill and cook the hot dogs.

But here’s what stood out to me, watching Hamler’s tape. When he was lined up against the top corner in this draft, Ohio State’s Jeffrey Okudah, he shook him in press coverage. (Thanks to Lance Zierlein of NFL.com for pointing that out.) Hamler isn’t going to fit every offense. But there’s an offense in the midwest that he fits perfectly.

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Ryan Pace is in a difficult position as he enters the 2020 NFL draft.

Not because he’ll be making the picks in his pajamas, but because the team has several directions it could go and he can’t afford to get it wrong. This is make-or-break for Pace. He has built 90% of a Super Bowl roster, but has to overcome his biggest miss, the quarterback. After a disappointing 8-8 season in 2019, the Bears have plugged some holes, but simply need more actual difference makers.

With that in mind, the focus of the draft has to be finding impact players. While drafting for the future is a nice luxury, Pace can’t afford to worry about 2021 until it comes. He has to win in 2020 or the picks he makes for the future won’t matter.

With that thought, I put myself in Pace’s shoes. Having two top-50 picks gives the team ammunition to add two impact players. The problem, of course, is that they aren’t scheduled to pick again until the fifth round. They have serious needs at cornerback, wide receiver, right guard and safety. (One could add quarterback to that too, but the Bears seem intent on riding with the winner of the competition between Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky.)

Ideally, the Bears would get two sure starters — or favorites to start — and a third player who is at least in competition for a starting job. In the later rounds, they can look for depth and fill holes at offensive tackle, tight end, defensive line and elsewhere.

In order to more accurately file a mock draft for the Bears, I used the help of the mock draft simulator from Pro Football Focus. I went into the second round targeting a pool of players with the hopes that I could move back and come away with three of them.

That group included:

WR: Brandon Aiyuk, Denzel Mims, Jalen Reagor and KJ Hamler

OL: Josh Jones, Isaiah Wilson, Robert Hunt and Lloyd Cushenberry

CB: Trevon Diggs, Jaylon Johnson, A.J. Terrell and Reggie Robinson

S: Jeremy Chinn, Kyle Dugger, Grant Delpit or Antoine Winfield.

Here is how it played out:

Pick 43: Trade with Tampa Bay

Bears receive Picks 45 and 117

Bucs receive: Picks 43 and 196

Note: By moving back, however, the Bears missed top remaining cornerback prospect Jaylon Johnson, Utah. 

Pick 45: K.J. Hamler, WR, Penn State

Hamler was one of the few remaining players out of my initial pool that was still available. With sub-4.3 speed, he’ll immediately move into the role previously played by Taylor Gabriel. Hands are the question with Hamler, which have some comparing him to Tedd Ginn Jr., not Tyreek Hill like the Bears would hope. But, his speed is so rare, the big plays will make up for the drops.

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