Devin Hester was the only active player interview I ever enjoyed. He was charismatic, honest, funny, and he was not pleased to see Josh Cribbs stealing some of his limelight while he was sidelines with an injury. Hester was also the most electric athlete of my lifetime. Data wrote a terrific piece, Quantifying Devin Hester, in 2017. Robert even reflected on Hester in his early days as editor here. We’ve written a lot about Hester around here, but attention must continue being paid.

The NFL ridiculously prohibits their YouTube highlights from being embedded on non-affiliated websites, even sites that have been promoting their product for two decades. So, in order to watch the videos below you need to click the links and go over to the YT site. But these are my three favorite Hester performances/moments.

2007. Week 12. Denver Broncos.

Video: Devin Hester Kick Return/Punt Return Highlights | (2007) Week 12 – Denver Broncos vs Chicago Bears – YouTube

Kick returners have won games in the NFL, but this is the only game I can remember where a kick returner singlehandedly won an NFL game. The Broncos outplayed the Bears on BOTH sides of the ball for four quarters, but Hester’s two returns (a kickoff and a punt) were the difference.

2006. “They are who we thought they were!”

Video: Monday Night Meltdown! (Bears vs. Cardinals 2006, Week 6) (youtube.com)

The wildest night I spent at Josie Woods, and the most inconceivable football game I’ve ever witnessed.

The Super Bowl Moment.

Video: [HD] Devin Hester Opening Kickoff Return | Superbowl XLI | Extended Version (youtube.com)

It is the sporting event I choose to forget, but one can’t deny it had the most thrilling opening moments in Chicago Bears history. With that kick return touchdown, Hester solidified his historical status with the organization. I remember, in a somewhat drunken haze, screaming, “This is our year! This is our year!” It was not.

Earlier this offseason, I examined Chicago’s pass rush, and this week I want to shift gears to focus on the other part of pass defense: coverage. We started with CB, looked at LB yesterday, and today we’ll finish by examining the safeties.

Side note: If you read either of the last 2 articles, this one will follow the exact same format and have identical table setup, so hopefully the familiarity makes digesting all of the data a little easier. 

Basic Coverage Stats

Let’s start with a basic look at coverage stats for Chicago’s safeties last year. There were 85 S with 250+ coverage snaps, or 2.7 per team, which makes a convenient threshold for starting players since some teams deploy 3 safety nickel looks fairly frequently. Chicago had 3 safeties qualify in 2023: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, and Elijah Hicks. They also signed two more players this offseason who qualified in Kevin Byard (spent 2023 with Titans and Eagles) and Jonathan Owens (spent 2023 with Packers), so we’ll examine their coverage metrics as well.

• Ranks compared to the 85 S in the sample are given in parentheses, and for a little context, 43rd would be exactly in the middle.
• Those in the top 25% (21st or better) are highlighted in green.
• Those in the bottom 25% (65th or worse) are highlighted in red.
• All data for this article is from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

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Earlier this offseason, I examined Chicago’s pass rush, and this week I want to shift gears to focus on the other part of pass defense: coverage. We looked at CB yesterday, and today we’ll focus on linebackers before finishing tomorrow with a look at the safeties.

Side note: If you read yesterday’s article, this one will follow the exact same format and have identical table setup, so hopefully the familiarity makes digesting all of the data a little easier. 

Linebackers

Let’s start with a basic look at coverage stats for Chicago’s LB last year. There were 66 LB with 250+ coverage snaps, or 2.1 per team, which makes a convenient threshold for starting players. Both Chicago starting LB – Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards – qualified, and I decided to include Jack Sanborn as well even though he missed the cutoff with only 192 coverage snaps. The table below shows how well all three players performed in a variety of coverage metrics compared to their peers. A few quick notes:

• Ranks compared to the 66 LB in the sample are given in parentheses, and for a little context, 33rd would be exactly in the middle.
• Those in the top 25% (17th or better) are highlighted in green.
• Those in the bottom 25% (50th or worse) are highlighted in red.
• All data for this article is from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

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Earlier this offseason, I examined Chicago’s pass rush, and this week I want to shift gears to focus on the other part of pass defense: coverage. We’ll start today by examining cornerbacks, and then shift to linebackers in part two and and end with safeties in part three.

First Look

Let’s start with a basic look at coverage stats for Chicago’s CB last year. There were 109 CBs with at least 250 coverage snaps, or roughly 3.4 per team, which makes that a convenient threshold for starting players. Chicago had 4 CBs in that sample: Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Kyler Gordon, and Terell Smith – and the table below shows how well they performed in a variety of coverage metrics compared to their peers. A few quick notes:

• Ranks compared to the 109 CB in the sample are given in parentheses, and for a little context, 55th would be exactly in the middle.
• Those in the top 25% (27th or better) are highlighted in green.
• Those in the bottom 25% (83rd or worse) are highlighted in red.
• All data for this article is from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

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Fan and media access to NFL training camps is a double-edged sword. On one side, access is fun. Fans seems to genuinely enjoy going to camp practices and reporting what they see on their social feeds. Media members know how voracious the fan hunger is for new NFL content and gets tons of mileage out of their analysis of 7-on-7s and late-practice red zone sessions. And if you have video?!?! Click click click click click click click click click.

But one must always remember that we are in an era, despite this unprecedented access, of intense franchise secrecy. The access is measured, controlled. Teams are not going to show a single supporter or reporter anything that could potentially put them at a competitive disadvantage when they start keeping score in September. And that is what makes the prospect of the Chicago Bears appearing on HBO’s now ubiquitous Hard Knocks series this summer a complicated endeavor.

Hard Knocks Schedule

• Episode 1 – Tuesday, August 6, 9 p.m. ET
• Episode 2 – Tuesday, August 13, 9 p.m. ET
• Episode 3 – Tuesday, August 20, 9 p.m. ET
• Episode 4 – Tuesday, August 27, 9 p.m. ET
• Episode 5 – Tuesday, September 3, 9 p.m. ET

Hard Knocks is reality television, and not since the days when Herm Edwards and Rex Ryan were involved has it been particularly good reality television (if such a thing exists). Reality television thrives on big personalities and fabricated drama. The ripped, Australian deckhand and the one-arm chef both like the busty second stew! But only one can make out with her in the hot tub! Which one will it be? (For those of you unfamiliar with Below Deck, those sentences will be gibberish.)

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Camp approaches, which means it’s time for me to grade the roster. Like I’ve done the last few years, I’ll grade on a 1-10 scale, with 1 being the worst in the NFL, 10 being the best, and 5 being an average NFL unit. Let’s get right down to it.

Defensive Ends: 3

Key players: Montez Sweat, DeMarcus Walker, Jake Martin, Austin Booker

Others: Dominique Robinson, Daniel Hardy, Khalid Kareem, Jamree Kromah

Montez Sweat is a good but not great pass rusher who’s clearly the best player on the defensive line. After him, this is a very weak group. DeMarcus Walker is the other starter, though he doesn’t offer a ton as a pass rusher and is probably best suited as a 3rd DE. Veteran Jake Martin was added in free agency and is the frontrunner to be the 3rd DE, but he’s mainly been a DE4 in his career and offers more as a run stuffer than pass rusher. 5th round pick Austin Booker is probably the Bears’ best chance at boosting the pass rush, but history says expectations for him should be quite low. Nobody else on this list even remotely moves the needle, and the Bears need to add a veteran defensive end pretty badly to make this group any sort of respectable.

Defensive Tackles: 2

Key players: Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter Sr., Zacch Pickens

Others: Byron Cowart, Keith Randolph Jr., Michael Dwumfour, DeShaun Mallory

Andrew Billings is a nice run stuffer who doesn’t offer much as a pass-rusher, which is fine for a nose tackle. This group hinges on the development of 2nd year players Gervon Dexter Sr. and Zacch Pickens, who were 2nd and 3rd round picks, respectively, in 2023. Dexter showed great promise as a pass rusher last year, but really struggled against the run, and will have to improve significantly there to be worthy of an every-down role. Pickens didn’t play many snaps as a rookie, so it’s hard to say how he’ll perform in a presumably much expanded role. There’s not really any depth to note behind them either, as the most intriguing player to watch is undrafted rookie Keith Randolph Jr. The Bears could really use a veteran addition here too, as the defensive line is the clear weak link of the roster.

Linebackers: 7

Key players: Tremaine Edmunds, TJ Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell

Others: Amen Ogbongbemiga, Paul Moala, Micah Baskerville, Carl Jones Jr.

Tremaine Edmunds got paid big money last year coming off a career season, but struggled some in his 1st year in Chicago, as he gave up 8..7 yards/target, an awful mark for LBs (NFL average 7.5). TJ Edwards, on the other hand, vastly outperformed his free agent contract and was really good in 2023. The duo complement each other well and give Chicago a solid pair of starting LBs, and Jack Sanborn provides excellent depth as the top backup. Noah Sewell and Amen Ogbongbemiga provide quality special teams experience, and round out the 5 players likely to make the roster. If Edmunds bounces back, this could be one of the NFL’s best groups, but he needs to prove that 2023, not 2022, was the fluke season.

Cornerbacks: 8

Key players: Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Kyler Gordon, Terell Smith

Others: Josh Blackwell, Jaylon Jones, Greg Stroman Jr., Leon Jones, Reddy Steward

Jaylon Jones broke out as one of the best CB in the NFL in 2023, as QBs throwing his way averaged less than 4 yards/target and threw 4 INT to only 1 TD. This earned him a hefty new contract as Chicago’s top CB, but the progress of young players Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon alongside him shouldn’t be overlooked. Stevenson struggled mightily in the 1st month of his rookie season, giving up 10.6 yards/target and 3 TD to 0 INT or pass breakups. He improved tremendously from week 5 on, however, giving up 7.0 yards/target, 6 TD, and 4 INT with 13 pass breakups. Performing at that level, much less seeing moderate 2nd year improvement, would make him an above-average NFL CB. Nickelback Kyler Gordon likewise improved after a rough first half of the season (7.9 yards/target) to give up only 6.2 yards/target in the back half of the frame, and he seems to already be an above-average nickelback. If Gordon and Stevenson can continue to improve, the Bears have one of the better starting groups in the NFL, and the depth is pretty solid as well with players like Terell Smith and Greg Stroman Jr. performing reasonably well when called on.

Safeties: 6

Key players: Kevin Byard III, Jaquan Brisker, Jonathan Owens

Others: Tarvarius Moore, Elijah Hicks, Adrian Colbert, Douglas Coleman III, Quindell Johnson

The Bears jettisoned longtime starter Eddie Jackson this offseason and replaced him with Kevin Byard III, a 2-time all pro who should be viewed as an upgrade. However, Byard will be 31 at the start of the season, and had something of a down season in 2023, so he may be a bit on the decline. Jaquan Brisker has been an elite run defender but coverage liability through 2 seasons, and will need to improve significantly against the pass to solidify himself as a quality starter. The depth, which was a massive issue in 2023, has significantly improved. Jonathan Owens has played starter-level snaps in Green Bay the last 2 years, while Tarvarius Moore logged over 1000 defensive snaps in his 4 years in San Francisco.

Defense: 5

Those grades average out to just above a 5, so we’ll say that a baseline expectation for the defense should be around average. This might feel low, considering Chicago got a lot of love for being a considerably better than average defense down the stretch last year, but defensive performance is not terribly stable year to year, especially for turnovers, and the Bears were largely driven by finishing 5th in the NFL in turnovers forced. Chicago’s defensive line was bad last year, and at least on paper, looks worse now than it was in 2023. Until that changes, it’s hard to expect a great defense. My hot take is that I think the Bears finish with a better offense than defense in 2024, though things could look better on the defensive side of the ball if a trio of 2nd year players (Gervon Dexter Sr., Zacch Pickens, Tyrique Stevenson) all make a significant leap and outperform expectations.

Specialists: 8

Key players: K Cairo Santos, P Tory Taylor, LS Patrick Scales

Others: P Corliss Waitman, LS Cameron Lyons

Cairo Santos has solidified himself as a quality NFL kicker. Of the 32 NFL kickers with 50+ field goal attempts since 2021, he ranks 7th in overall field goal %,  1st in FG% from 40-49 yards, and 14th in FG% from 50+ yards. Tory Taylor is a rookie, so he has yet to prove it in the NFL, but he was the highest drafted punter since 2019 and set a number of NCAA punting records, so expectations are high. Patrick Scales has been a solid long snapper for years now. Overall, this is a quality group.

Camp approaches, which means it’s time for me to grade the roster. Like I’ve done the last few years, I’ll grade on a 1-10 scale, with 1 being the worst in the NFL, 10 being the best, and 5 being an average NFL unit. Let’s get right down to it.

Quarterback: 3

Key players: Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent

Others: Austin Reed, Brett Rypien

Caleb Williams was the #1 pick in the draft and was widely viewed as one of the top QB prospects of the last 15 years, but rookie QBs usually struggle, so that should be the expectation until he proves otherwise. Tyson Bagent was a great story last year, earning the backup QB job as an undrafted rookie and going 2-2 in 4 starts, but he did not play well, averaging only 6.0 yards/attempt and throwing 6 INT to only 3 TD to post a 71.4 passer rating. He should be viewed as one of the worse backups in the NFL until proving otherwise. Rypien is a career practice squad guy, while Austin Reed was undrafted this year. They should compete for one practice squad spot as the emergency QB3. This grade has the potential to be much higher next year, as career projections for Williams should be quite optimistic, but there will likely be some bumps in the road in 2024.

Running Back: 6

Key players: D’Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson

Others: Travis Homer, Ian Wheeler, Khari Blasingame (FB)

The Bears paid D’Andre Swift to be their clear-starter, and he has the ability to impact both the rush and pass game with 2700 rushing and 1400 receiving yards in his 4-year career. However, he is nothing special as a runner, as his best season last year still had quite unimpressive underlying metrics. Khalil Herbert is a really good runner who struggles mightily in the passing game, while Roschon Johnson was viewed as a quality all-around running back coming out of college before a mid-season concussion put a damper on his rookie season last year. Looking farther down the roster, Travis Homer and Ian Wheeler will compete for a roster spot based on special teams, and fullback Khari Blasingame will try to earn a roster spot even though new OC Shane Waldron never used a fullback in Seattle. Overall the group lacks a true superstar, but has good depth and should be fairly well-rounded overall.

Wide Receiver: 9

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The offseason is winding down as we are now firmly in training camp and shifting into preseason mode, but before the real games start I want to sneak one last series examining part of the roster to give us a better sense of what to expect in the 2024 season.

I’ve spent quite a bit of time looking at the offense in the last few months, as we’ve learned together about new OC Shane Waldron, the WRs, the TEs, and expectations for rookies Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze. However, I’ve completely ignored the offensive line, and want to spend a little time this week focusing on the big boys up front who will be tasked with protecting the quarterback and opening lanes in the run game.

We already looked at the interior yesterday, and will shift gears to the tackles today.

Side note: If you read yesterday’s article, this one will follow the exact same format and have identical table setup, so hopefully the familiarity makes digesting all of the data a little easier. 

Pass Protection

Let’s start by examining pass protection, which is the most important part of an offensive lineman’s job. The Bears have two locked in starters in Darnell Wright, who are both back from 2023. The table below shows how they help up protecting the passer compared to 68 OTs (2.1/team, so roughly starters) around the NFL with 300+ pass blocking snaps. A few quick notes:

• All data is from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
• True pass sets are intended to remove plays designed to minimize the pass rush and make the OL’s job easier, such as screens, play action, and rollout.
• Pass blocking efficiency measures overall pressure allowed, but weights sacks more heavily than other pressures. A higher number is better.
• In a 68 player sample, 34th would be the middle rank, while cells highlighted in green indicate they ranked in the top 25% (top 17) and red indicates the bottom 25% (52nd or worse).
• Two other players are also included, though they don’t have ranks indicated because they did not qualify with 300+ pass blocking snaps in 2023:
  • Larry Borom had 225 pass blocking snaps for the Bears last year, and will be competing to keep his role as the swing tackle in 2024.
  • Borom’s main competition is Matt Pryor, who didn’t play much in 2023 but had a combined 583 pass blocking snaps across 2021-22, which are included here.

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The offseason is winding down as we are now firmly in training camp and shifting into preseason mode, but before the real games start I want to sneak one last series examining part of the roster to give us a better sense of what to expect in the 2024 season.

I’ve spent quite a bit of time looking at the offense in the last few months, as we’ve learned together about new OC Shane Waldron, the WRs, the TEs, and expectations for rookies Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze. However, I’ve completely ignored the offensive line, and want to spend a little time this week focusing on the big boys up front who will be tasked with protecting the quarterback and opening lanes in the run game.

We’ll start today with the interior, and look at tackles tomorrow.

Guards

Pass Protection

Let’s start with guards, and then begin by examining pass protection, which is the most important part of an offensive lineman’s job. There were 62 guards (1.9/team) who had at least 300 pass blocking snaps in 2023, which is roughly starters. Chicago had three players in this sample: Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, and Cody Whitehair. The table below shows how they help up protecting the passer compared their peers around the NFL. A few quick notes:

• All data is from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
• True pass sets are intended to remove plays designed to minimize the pass rush and make the OL’s job easier, such as screens, play action, and rollout.
• Pass blocking efficiency measures overall pressure allowed, but weights sacks more heavily than other pressures. A higher number is better.
• In a 62 player sample, 31st would be the middle rank, while cells highlighted in green indicate they ranked in the top 25% (top 16) and red indicates the bottom 25% (47th or worse).
• Ryan Bates is also included, since he will be competing for a starting spot this year.
  • He didn’t play much in 2023, so his data is from 2022, and thus doesn’t have any ranks indicated.
  • The Bears plan to have him compete at center, but he’s only played 203 career snaps at C spread across 4 seasons, so that’s not much to go on. He played 821 snaps at guard in 2022, the only season where he’s had starting snaps, so that’s what we’ll evaluate.

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Our Uber driver from DFW to the Hotel ZaZa was named Alan, and he punctuated almost every sentence with a drawn out, eloquently drawled, “Yeahhhhhhhhhhhs.”

My uncle and I asked him what kind of weather we should expect in our two days in Dallas, and he was ready with his answer. “Boys, it’s going to be about 97, but don’t worry, it’s going to feel like a hundred seven. But, hey, that’s Dallas.” Then, a beat. “Yeahhhhhhhhhhhs.”

Strange though it may sound, it had been a dream of mine to see Dealey Plaza since I first saw Oliver Stone’s JFK in the fall of 1992 at ten years old. The film had remained a favorite of mine for thirty years but this fall, taking a course called Visual Historiographies, I reconnected with it, now academically. (If you’re interested in my thoughts on the film’s historical relevance, you can read my piece, Ask the Question_The Historiographic Project of JFK.) It turns out my uncle had also found himself down an “Oswald didn’t act alone” rabbit hole, and the trip materialized over some late-night Guinness on Memorial Day weekend.

It did not disappoint.

Before moving on to some broader thoughts, a few striking observations from the scene of the crime.

• One need not be a conspiracy theorist to recognize that if Oswald were the lone gunman, it is illogical for him to pass on shooting Kennedy when the motorcade was directly in front of him on Houston Street, and instead waiting for the turn onto Elm and the FAR more difficult shot(s). As far as I’m concerned, the multiple shooters theory begins there.
• Dealey Plaza is a remarkably condensed space; it is a small plot of land. The picket fence at the grassy knoll, where many believe the kill shot emanated from, is no more than 100 feet from where the president was killed. It is also ideally positioned for that shot.
• We spent a few hours in the plaza on our first day and decided that evening to return for a few hours the second day. It was the right decision. There is an immense power to the place but it’s less an emotional power (Auschwitz, the Normandy beaches), than an intellectual one. Dealey Plaza makes your mind race. It makes you question everything.
• If you’re planning to visit, skip the touring trolleys. Experience the Sixth Floor Museum at the Book Depository and map the remainder of your journey alone. Stand behind the picket fence and above the street on the overpass. Have a car drive you to Oswald’s boarding house, and then take the short walk to the site of the Tippit shooting. Then get a car to the Texas Theatre, where Oswald was arrested. Go inside. Have a drink at the bar. See the physical theater where Oswald was arrested. There’s more value to doing these things on your own because it allows you to properly discuss each stop.

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