While this year won’t feature the large Super Bowl parties of pre-pandemic times (I hope), Super Bowls typically involve the interesting dynamic of football fans watching football with non-football fans. It’s not really a sporting event. It’s a television program, especially for neutral observers. I say embrace that element and bet accordingly. Give the non-football folks a chance to get in on the action.

Here are three props to do that. They all come from DraftKings Sportsbook.

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“Doink Special”

Any Field Goal or Extra Point to Hit Upright/Crossbar.

+400

Analysis: The over/under on this game is 56.5. The expectation is there will be points and that means lots of opportunities to doink a kick or two. At 4-1 odds, you’ll also have a good chance to make some money and the results/flow of the game will have zero impact on the likelihood of hitting. Neither of these teams has a “sit on the lead” mode.

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Opening Kickoff to NOT Result in a Touchback.

+230

Analysis: Two reasons I like this bet. (1) There is a lot of adrenaline stored up at the start of the Super Bowl and it’s easy to see Mickens OR Pringle OR Hardman deciding to take a shot on the opening kick. (2) It’s more fun than betting the coin flip, comes with better odds, and requires the same level of attention.

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First Second-Half Offensive Play From Scrimmage: Run

+115

Analysis: You’re getting a little drunk. You just sat through a 20-minute performance from someone called The Weekend. Your shirt looks like Jackson Pollock went to town on you with a combination of nacho cheese and buffalo sauce. The non-footballies are starting to lose interest.

First play, second half, all-in. Yes, you probably need to hope Tampa won the coin toss and deferred to the second half because I don’t see the Chiefs running the ball in this spot. But you’re getting positive odds so it’s worth the shot.

[Note: I went 5-1 on my bets over the Divisional and Championship rounds. But those were serious, thoughtful bets. These are not. These are the kinds of bets you make for entertainment purposes only. And believe me, you’ll enjoy them.]

After yesterday’s piece highlighting the Bears’ need to prioritize keeping Allen Robinson around this offseason, today will build on that with a closer look at Robinson’s value to the Bears. I’ll start with examining his individual performance, and then look to the importance of that performance in context to building a roster.

High Volume

To start with, Robinson is the team’s highest volume pass weapon by a wide margin. More than 1 in 4 passes the Bears threw last year went Robinson’s way, and he finished 3rd in the NFL in targets with 151 (9.4/game). Nobody else had more than Darnell Mooney’s 98 (6.1/game). Replacing that kind of volume would be difficult.

However, you could reasonably argue that high volume is not indicative of quality. In fact, if Robinson drew a lot of targets but had limited production with them, it could be argued that distributing those targets elsewhere is a good idea. And at first glance, Robinson was not a terribly efficient target.

• Although Robinson was 3rd in the NFL in targets, he was 6th in receptions and 9th in yards, which means other players around the league out-produced him while needing less volume to do so.
• Of the 42 players who saw 100 targets in 2020, Robinson ranked 21st in both catch % and yards/target, meaning he was middle of the pack in efficiency.

It is important to remember, however, that a pass catcher is dependent on their quarterback, and Robinson was working with bad quarterbacks last year. The players who caught more passes than him were catching balls from Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, and Patrick Mahomes. Those who finished with more yards caught passes from those QBs plus Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and Matt Ryan.

High Efficiency

With that in mind, let’s compare Robinson’s efficiency to the rest of the team’s pass catchers. The table below shows the basic statistics for every player with at least 10 targets in 2020.

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Here’s the truth about the Chicago Bears offense: they’ve got players.

The interior of their offensive line is now young, talented and deep. Sam Mustipher is a starting center. Cody Whitehair, Alex Bars and James Daniels all proved they can play at a high level. And all four will only improve under the tutelage of Juan Castillo.

David Montgomery has established himself as one of the better running backs in the league, and the backfield will be more dynamic in 2021 with the return of Tarik Cohen.

Rookies Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet combined for 89 catches, 874 yards and 6 touchdowns. They did so with sub-mediocrity from the quarterback position, and with Kmet having to wait until December for a game with more than two catches.

The Bears need to add talent at tackle, and should always be adding weapons on the outside. But one thing they can not worry about in 2021 is replacing Allen Robinson as their top receiver option.

Robinson’s game is not without flaws. He seemingly never wins 50/50 jump balls, and many of those manage to end up in the hands of defensive backs. He lacks the kind of speed to threaten defenses over the top. But he’s one of the more steady, reliable receivers in the league. His 102 catch, 1,250 yard, 6 touchdown performance in 2020 – especially considering the quarterback play – is one of the more impressive seasons in team history.

The Bears should not even consider a roster next season without him. And that consideration does not require paying him north of $80 million, despite the #ExtendARob movement on social media. The Bears have made many substantial, lucrative offers to Robinson and his side has rejected all of them. He wants $100 million. No one is going to pay him that.

The franchise tag exists for this exact situation. If Robinson doesn’t like that outcome, too damn bad. Nothing bothers me more than players complaining about the tag, an admittedly-absurd designation their union agreed to in collective bargaining. If players don’t like the tag – and none of them seem to – they should hire someone with gravitas to run the NFLPA and eliminate the damn thing. In the meantime, no one should criticize a team for doing what is economically prudent.

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If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have proved one thing, it’s that the risk is always worth the reward at quarterback.

It’s easy to look back and say that signing Tom Brady was a no-brainer but tell that to the San Francisco 49ers, the team Brady wanted to go to. There were times when Brady looked flat out washed up over the last two years, but Tampa Bay still took the chance and gave him a two-year $50 million deal. If the decision didn’t work out, every person involved with making it would be finished in Tampa.

Signing Brady gave the Bucs hope. They went from 7-9 to the Super Bowl, with a 43-year-old quarterback who threw 40 touchdown passes during the regular season and seven more in the playoffs.

When it comes to acquiring quarterbacks, there are very few sure things. Jay Cutler looked like it as a 25-year-old Pro Bowler who had what was considered a magnificent season at the time. That 2009 trade didn’t work out quite the way the Bears wanted to, but its “failure” is no reason to be gun shy now.

While he had success, Cutler’s acquisition was as much about potential as anything. When it comes to Deshaun Watson, there is no wondering what he could become because he is already one of the five best quarterbacks in the league. If it takes four first-round picks, the Bears have to offer that. Quarterbacks of his caliber, at his age, don’t become available. Ever.

The other options are more uncertain. Dak Prescott likely won’t be available. Neither Aaron Rodgers nor Matt Stafford will be available to the Bears. Yet the quarterback carousel could still give the Bears an opportunity to grab a good player. Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo are two quarterbacks who are proven to be good, though the latter would require a solid backup as he simply can’t stay on the field.

We still don’t know for sure what the draft will offer the Bears, but if they miss out on Watson, Prescott or Carr, there’s a very good chance the Bears will be spending their first pick on the position. What they can’t do, however, is hope that a quarterback they like drops to them.

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had not been in the playoffs since 2007. Last year they were 7-9 and featured a quarterback setting interception records.

Now they’re in the Super Bowl because they replaced the interception machine with the best the game has ever seen and their pass rush beat up the league MVP in the title game. (The game is a simple one. Play great quarterback. Disrupt the other team’s quarterback. And spend all your money on those two things.)

Where will the Bears be next January? That’s the question many are asking on Chicago sports radio and on the back pages of the dailies. What are fair expectations for the coming season? For those asking me, here’s my answer: how the hell should I know?

Expectations for the coming season will be completely dependent upon the quarterback room. The Bears are still going to be a good defense, with greatness potential. The Bears will add to their offensive line and skill spots, most likely keeping Allen Robinson on the franchise tag. This roster, as currently constructed, can easily return to competing for a wildcard spot next season.

But will that excite anyone? Should it excite anyone? There are three probably scenarios, with a nod to Christopher Guest.

Scenario One: Best in Show

If the Bears land Deshaun Watson in an unlikely trade, they immediately become the most interesting team in the NFL next season. That’s not hyperbole. It’s fact. The jersey sales would prove it. The schedule release in April – where the Bears would be all over primetime – would prove it. The acquisition would reinvigorate the entire franchise.

Scenario Two: A Mighty Wind

Sam Darnold redemption tour?

Ryan Fitzpatrick writing a final chapter to one of the NFL’s craziest, beardiest stories?

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Intro.

Sean Desai  is the only defensive coordinator in the sport with this in his Wikipedia page:

…received his undergraduate degree in philosophy and political science, with a minor in biology, from Boston University in 2004. Desai earned a master’s degree in higher and postsecondary education from Columbia University in 2005. Desai earned his doctorate in educational administration in 2008 at Temple University, and was an adjunct professor for two years.

Now, that passage would not exactly qualify him to be the defensive coordinator of a professional football team. But Desai has been praised for his schematic acumen, has earned the love of the guys in the locker room, and comes with a resounding endorsement from Vic Fangio. From a piece quoting Vic in USA Today:

This is not a column arguing the Bears are going to trade for Deshaun Watson and completely upend the narrative surrounding this organization. Most oddsmakers have the Bears fourth or fifth in the pecking order to acquire his services. This is a column arguing the Bears should make sure the Houston Texans know they are serious.

No one knows where Watson wants to play next season. There are rumors he wants Miami but those rumors circulated before the entire league started texting Nick Caserio at the gym. Listen, Miami is nice. The weather is gorgeous. The taxes are non-existent. The women don’t wear a ton of clothes near the beach. The team has a good coach and good talent. But they also have a disinterested fan base. The building is a mausoleum. If Watson wins in Miami, it’ll be met with a series of tepid hollers and lethargic golf claps.

If he wins in Chicago, we’ll be eating at one of the many Deshaun’s Dogs chains in the Chicagoland area for the rest of our lives. (“The RPO Dog has relish, pickles and onions!”) The Bears should assume they can convince Watson to want Chicago and act accordingly.

So what does “serious” mean?

Start with three first-round picks. Think of it this way. In order for the Bears to move up significantly in the 2020 NFL Draft for a quarterback, it’ll cost them next year’s first rounder anyway. So why wouldn’t you toss in an additional first to get a proven commodity at the most important position in all of sports?

If those picks are not enough, and they likely wouldn’t be, two options:

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4-0 last week.

Don’t act like you’re not impressed.

Two more bets for Championship Sunday, as we try and go into the Super Bowl on a bona fide heater. (As always, betting odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook & Casino.)

Sunday 2:05 PM CT – Buccaneers @ Packers

Aaron Rodgers over 2.5 touchdown passes: +145

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Tampa Bay allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns in the sport this season, limiting their opponents to only ten over their first 17 games. So if you expect the Packers to score touchdowns – and I certainly do – you either need to pick his targets accurately or pick his total. The latter seems more appealing and the odds suggest that. (You really wanna lay +115 odds on Robert Tonyan? I don’t.)

Yes, it’s going to be cold but Rodgers has thrown more than two touchdowns in six of last eight games and this does not feel like a low-scoring affair.

Sunday 5:40 PM CT – Bills @ Chiefs

(Note: There are far fewer prop bets available for this contest due to Patrick Mahomes’ concussion/neck/foot issues. He’s going to play, but in what shape will he be?)

Josh Allen to score a touchdown: +135

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Allen looked shaky against Baltimore’s high-pressure approach last week and he should expect more of the same from Steve Spagnuolo’s unit this week. But Allen is a gamer and this feel like an evening where he’ll need to leave EVERYTHING on the field if the Bills are going to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since January 30, 1994. Brian Daboll doesn’t hesitate to call Allen’s number inside the red zone and it could be the perfect remedy to beat an ill-timed Spags blitz.

Chiefs

“Always Be Adding Weapons”

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No one has embraced the modern NFL more than Andy Reid. He’s never content with the offensive firepower on his roster.

Tyreek Hill was not on most teams’ draft boards. The heinous crimes he committed in college were considered a bridge too far. What did Reid do? He drafted Hill. He took the risk because he recognized Hill’s speed would be indefensible in the NFL. You can rightfully criticize this decision but do you think Reid cares now? Do Chiefs fans?

After winning the Super Bowl in 2019 on the back of his offense, did Reid concentrate his off-season efforts on the defense? Don’t be silly. He used the team’s first round pick on a running back and added Le’Veon Bell mid-season. Reid had spent the previous three seasons stockpiling speed on the outside. Now he’s doing the same in the backfield.

Is Patrick Mahomes going to play in the AFC Championship Game? It would be shocking if he doesn’t but concussion protocols in the NFL are draped in mystery. Yet nobody would rule the Chiefs out of that game without Mahomes. The reason is the roster of weapons assembled by Reid.

Buccaneers 

“Turnovers Leave a Bad Taste”

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Bruce Arians got as much production out of the quarterback position in 2019 as any other coach. Jameis Winston threw for over 5,000 yards. He threw 30 touchdown passes. But Arians did not even consider bringing him back to Tampa and no other team so much as floated the opportunity for Winston to compete for their starting job. Why? Because Winston added 30 interceptions to his tally and Tampa’s turnover differential in 2019 was -13. They missed the playoffs.

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