Matt Nagy’s offense has had zero success against the Green Bay Packers. A lot of that blame falls upon the quarterback position, but not all of it. Nagy has known what he has at quarterback in each of the six meetings between the clubs and has not been able to compensate for Chicago’s historical deficiency. He’s tried the quick passing attack. He’s tried to force the run game. He’s tried the trick plays. Nothing.

They were mildly successful in 2018, splitting the games, and scoring in the 20s both meetings. 2019 was an abject disaster, totally 16 points in the two contests, and looking (somehow) even worse than that. The 2020 season brought no improvement, with a garbage-laden 25 in the first meeting and an impotent 16 in the regular season-defining finale.

The man running the defense in Green Bay for the entirety of Nagy’s tenure was Mike Pettine. And dominating Mitch Trubisky was apparently not enough for him to retain that role. This week, Pettine was hired by Nagy and new defensive coordinator Sean Desai as a senior defensive assistant, or something. It’s an amorphous position, without a definable role on game day, but one can assume Pettine is being brought into the organization for two distinct reasons.

First, he’ll be a veteran mind on which Desai can lean. Sometimes this kind of role can be a bit overstated but in this case, it seems appropriate. Desai has never called an NFL game. He’s never made halftime adjustments. He’s never been responsible for organizing the whole of defensive meetings during the week, or motivating the entire unit on game day. Having someone on your staff who HAS done all those things can not be considered anything other than useful.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, Pettine knows every flaw in Nagy’s approach. And it is this element that suggests another step in Nagy’s growth. The first resources Pettine will surely provide the Bears, and Nagy, are his scouting reports/game plans from their previous contests. What did Pettine view as Nagy’s (and subsequently Bill Lazor’s) play-calling tendencies? What did Pettine think the Bears offense was incapable of doing? What did Pettine view as the weaknesses of the good players on the offensive roster? For instance, how did they want to play someone like Allen Robinson? (Because whatever they did worked.)

And it doesn’t stop on the offensive side. Pettine can also lay out, in full detail, how the Packers have chosen to attack the Bears’ better half, their defense.

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Assuming the trade compensation is fair, would you want to see Carson Wentz starting for the Bears in September?

— DaBearsBlog (@dabearsblog) February 9, 2021

Two thoughts:

• Ten or eleven points is nothing to sneeze at. It’s hard to get that kind of majority in a Twitter poll on ANYTHING these days.
• “Fair” is the important word in the poll. Fans seem to be okay with the Bears giving Wentz the second chance he deserves, but they don’t believe that second chance should come at significant risk to the team.

(1) Are the Bears interested? Yes. But they are not interested at any of the rumored prices. Philly has not been offered a first rounder by ANY team and has not received a formal offer from the Bears AT ALL.

(2) Philly’s play here was simple. They decided to use Adam Schefter to pretend a deal was imminent and then use some of their local media to float potential packages. (The one that had the Bears giving up a first AND Tarik Cohen – who is far better than Wentz – was my favorite.) They had hoped this would create a bidding war between interested parties. It achieved the opposite.

(3) Would Wentz be an upgrade at QB for the Bears? That’s not a guarantee. And because it’s not a guarantee the Bears have to value him accordingly. If they ultimately consider a first rounder, a second or third has to return. There is no way to argue 2020 Wentz is worth even that much. The Bears, or Colts, would still be paying for the player that was, not the player that currently is.

The NFL Draft is always a crapshoot, but in 2021 the odds of hitting are even lower, making the picks – at least the early selections – less valuable.

We’ve heard the story hundreds of times. A team likes a player’s tape, brings him in, puts him on the whiteboard and falls in love. In some instances, teams fall in love at dinner meetings in which the player made the reservation under a fun name and then walked them back to his crappy Toyota.

Same old story. But that won’t happen this year.

According to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, all teams are prohibited from timing, testing, interviewing in-person or giving medical exams to any draft prospects outside of a school’s pro day or an all-star game because of concerns surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a ban on all private workouts, facility visits, dinners and film sessions with prospects.

Communication can be done virtually or at structured events, but teams don’t like that. They want to get prospects in their building, have them speak to position coaches and work them out to see if they can do the specific thing the team wants the player to be able to do.

This is particularly important for quarterbacks.

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This might be the most interesting Super Bowl in many-a-moon. A lotta star power. Two jolly, red-faced head coaches. The point spread hasn’t moved off three points, so the game is expected to be tight. The total has fluctuated between 56 and 56.5, so the game is expected to be high-scoring. And if those two things happen, we’re looking at an exciting Sunday evening.

Five Thoughts

• Something about this game reminds me of those classic Patriots/Giants Super Bowls. A high-powered offense on one side and a big-game quarterback/pass rush on the other. If the Bucs are going to beat Reid and Mahomes, they will need the same Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul that terrorized Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship Game. With Eric Fisher out, the Chiefs are exploitable along the offensive line.
• Early in the season, the Chiefs were not particularly threatening down the field. They dinked and dunked opponents to death. Don’t be surprised if they compensate for their issues upfront by taking a similar approach against the Bucs, especially early in the game. That could mean a lot of quick tosses to Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Todd Bowles better have his boys in good tackling form.
• Usually you can identify a special teams mismatch in these games but there isn’t one here. Both kickers are reliable. Both punters are effective but used sparingly. The Chiefs are narrowly better in the return games. When games are perceived to be this evenly-matched, it may not come down to which specials unit makes a play but instead which avoids the big mistake at a crucial moment.
• Watch the weather forecast, especially if you’re planning to place any bets. There is predicted rain in Tampa Sunday but the belief now is that should be cleared out by the 6:30 PM ET kickoff. If it does rain, I tend to give an advantage to the quarterback who has seen everything and the steadier rush attack.
• One can not underestimate the achievement of Mahomes winning his second title. Rodgers hasn’t gotten to a second title game. Brees never got to a second title game. Peyton Manning went along for the ride to get his second ring. Mahomes is four quarters away from football immortality. Will he recognize that?

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Haiku One

He is forty-three,

with hair of a younger man.

A goat in all things.

Haiku Two

As his nerves jangle,

Bruce lifts a scotch to his lips.

“Calm down, baby. Calm.”

Haiku(s) Three

He came from Texas.

In a town known as Tyler,

Was the legend born.

In just his fourth year,

He seeks his second title,

Immortality.

If it’s simply a matter of what team can offer the most, the Chicago Bears have no shot at getting Deshaun Watson. Thankfully, that’s not the case. “The player” can pick his next team and the Bears have to sell him on the Bears being that team.

As of last week, the Texans strongly insisted they would not trade Watson. But it’s the quarterback who actually holds the power, if he wants to use it. Playing hardball and forcing Watson to either retire or pay hefty fines for not reporting to training camp is the kind of move that could kill a Texans franchise already on life support. He has made it clear he wants out and the best thing the Texans can do is move on and start thinking about the future. (And it makes their sales pitch to the fans – “he wanted out” – far easier.)

While there should be at least 30 teams trying to make a move for Watson, the Bears are situated better than many think. They have almost all of their draft picks going forward and salary cap space is easy enough to create, especially with Watson only costing roughly $11 million against the cap in 2021.

We know the Bears can’t put together an offer full of top five picks but if they can appeal to Watson, the Texans just might have to take what they can get.

Five steps to do just that.

Step One. “I F@#&ed up.”

Ryan Pace has to talk man-to-man with Watson and explain the 2017 draft.

The most important thing: he can’t insult Watson. He must find a way to explain why he took Mitch, without offending Watson even more than he already has. He must tell him he’s every bit as good as the team thought, but they fell in love with Mitch. It was a mistake.

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Prop Bet #1

Leonard Fournette to Score a TD: +120

“Playoff Lenny”

The Chiefs allowed 122.1 yards per game on the ground this season but they haven’t really been tested there this postseason. (Cleveland only ran the ball 20 times against them but averaged 5.3 yard a clip.) If the Bucs are going to make this the game I think it will be, Fournette will have to play a major role. That means 20+ attempts, 100+ yards and points.

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Prop Bet #2

Tom Brady OVER 0.5 Rushing Yards: +130

Two points on this prop.

• It is a situational bet. It requires the Bucs finding themselves in 3rd or 4th and 1 because Brady ain’t scrambling for yards. But Tompa is the greatest sneak quarterback of all-time and in this game every yard feels like twenty. Every first down feels decisive, and that’s especially true when the opponent seems to score at will like Kansas City. Arians will keep this game in the most reliable hands he’s got.
• Brady has actually hit this number in two of his last four games. So at + money, this is a bet well worth making.

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Prop Bet #3

Travis Kelce OVER 8.5 Catches: +130

Often, it’s very easy to applaud Vegas for how they set these over/unders. But this one is a no-brainer. Here are Kelce’s catch totals over his last ten games: 13, 8, 7, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 10, 8.

This is the Super Bowl. It figures to be a shootout. Kelce is the best receiving option in the sport and Todd Bowles will manufacture pressure every way imaginable, leaving Mahomes to look for his most reliable outlet. My projected line for Kelce: 11 catches, 107 yards, 1 TD.