When the Bears gave their postseason presser, they used the word “collaboration” a whole bunch and received the scorn of the Chicago media. Many seemed to think their reliance on clichés and platitudes showed a lack of sympathy for their fans; a failure to understand that the achievements of the previous seasons were not nearly good enough.
But anyone actually listening to that presser heard a clear message: Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy had to solve the quarterback problem. When you heard your favorite radio host (and mine) saying, “They’re not going to make any changes!” you didn’t realize he’d missed the point. The Bears were not only going to make changes. They were going to instigate change at the most important position in team sports.
They tried with Deshaun. Nothing. They had a deal for Russ. Didn’t happen. It all turned to the draft and when the Bears had an opportunity to make a bold move and get their guy – Justin Fields – they made the move. Will it pan out? Who the hell knows? But you have to take the shot when it comes to quarterbacks and the Bears took theirs.
Because of that move, the 2021 season has life. It has excitement. It has promise. And that’s all we could ask for.
The 2021 NFL draft starts tomorrow, so I want to take a look at historical trends to see where the Bears can expect to find positional value at various points in the draft. This builds very closely off a study I did last year, so here’s a quick recap of the approach:
I looked at every draft from 2010-20 to see how many players at each position were drafted in the top 50 (their 2nd round pick is #52), top 85 (their 3rd round pick is #83), and top 175 (their 5th round pick is #164). I didn’t bother looking at their 1st round pick because the top of the draft is more about a small pool of individual players as options, and the heavy focus in draft media on the 1st round means most fans are already pretty familiar with those names.
My source for this data did not differentiate between CB and S, so I combined the 2 into DB.
They did differentiate between interior offensive line and offensive tackle, so I kept those separate.
They had LB and DE as separate, with some edge rushers on both lists. I included all DE as edge rushers (even though some were more 3-4 DEs, not true edge rushers) and manually went through the LB list, looked up scouting reports for every player, and included anybody who was talked about as an edge rusher.
I then used The Athletic’s composite big board, which averages rankings from a number of different draft sources, to compare to historical trends. I focused especially on positions which I identified as needs for the Bears. The idea here is that positions with more players than usual ranked in a given range are more likely to have somebody highly rated slip through the cracks, while positions with fewer players than usual ranked in a given range are more likely to have somebody reach for them to fill a need.
Round Two (Top 50)
Here is the data for players drafted in the top 50.
Because every draft is different, I provided a range from the least to most players at that position drafted in the top 50 picks since 2010, as well as an average.
The last column shows how many players from that position are ranked in the top 50 right now according to the composite big board linked above.
Positions that are particularly good or bad are highlighted in colors (red for historically low, orange for near the low end of the range, light green for near the top end of the range, and green for historically good).
Even if they aren’t able to move up for a quarterback, the Chicago Bears should still get a really good player with the 20th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
There are 17 players the Bears should be ecstatic to get their hands on this week. On the surface, it sounds bad that there are only 17 players and the Bears have the 20th pick, but consider players at other positions will also be drafted by needy organizations. There figure to be at least a few pass rushers taken off the board, a couple off-ball linebackers and probably even a guard or defensive tackle. It’s likely the Bears will have a couple of options from this list. Of the players I listed, the lowest-ranked on the 2021 NFL Draft Consensus Big Board produced by The Athletic is 26.
Considered for this list were positions of need for the Bears. They need a quarterback. The release of Kyle Fuller made cornerback another obvious pick. But we also heard the rumors of the team going after tackle Trent Williams and receiver Kenny Golladay, so we can safely assume those are positions they will strongly consider.
Here is a quick look at the players the Bears should target:
_____________________
The Quarterbacks (5)
Really, any of the five would be great. We know Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson will be the first two picks and a third quarterback will go third overall. If Justin Fields doesn’t go third, there is no way he will last to 20. The only real possibility at 20 would be Alabama’s Mac Jones — who would be a top-five pick in pretty much any other draft – and is still the favorite to go third to San Francisco.
This is one of my favorite pieces all year. This is where I told you Aaron Donald was the best player in his class. This is also where I told you Justin Blackmon would dominate the NFL. On the lighter note, last year I focused my lens on kicker Rodrigo Blankenship – because he was ridiculous looking – and he was a terrific rookie for the Indianapolis Colts.
So who are my five this season?
____________________
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama.
I don’t get it.
I’m sure there are scouty/personnel types who will quibble at Smith’s measureables (oh no, he doesn’t weigh enough!) but when you watch him on the field, which is where he actually plays football, you see an NFL star.
In the modern NFL there are very few line-em-up-and-beat-the-corner wide receivers. The game is about matchups and Smith is a matchup nightmare. He’s the best wide receiver in this draft. He’s the best return man in this draft. He’s the best player in this draft.
____________________
Pressley Harvin III, Punter, Georgia Tech
Have you seen this kid?
He’s 260 pounds. And he throws dimes.
Someone is going to draft this kid. And the fans of that team are going to absolutely love him. (God I hope that team plays in a city with several Billy Goat Taverns.) Harvin isn’t just a novelty act. He won the Ray Guy Award for top punter in college football for 2020. He’s going to kick at the next level.
In 1993, when I was 11 years old, I made my mother drop me off at the Clairidge Theater in Montclair, New Jersey – the only “independent” movie house in north Jersey – so I could see Woody Allen’s Manhattan Murder Mystery. I was the youngest person in the theater by 40 years but I remember laughing at all the same stuff those older folks did, feeling like I was part of a private joke. That day, “the movie theater experience” hooked me. I wanted nothing else (until I discovered women, and booze).
I saw 30 movies in theaters that year. Schindler’s List, The Fugitive and Philadelphia at the Lincoln Cinema in Kearny. The Remains of the Day at the Franklin in Nutley. In the Name of the Father at the Williams in Rutherford. What’s Eating Gilbert Grape and In the Line of Fire at the $2 second-run house behind the Holiday Inn on Route 46. Dave at the mutiplex by Willowbrook Mall in Wayne.
In 1997, at 15, I started taking the train into the city. 30 became triple digits easily, thanks to the Angelika Film Center, one of my true heavens on earth. Not a year has gone by since where I haven’t eclipsed the 100 mark. In college, in that same city, I used to spend every Friday at the Loews by Lincoln Center. I’d use Wednesday and Thursday to map out my attack plan. First movie around 11:00 AM. Sneak into a second one around 1:30 PM. Sneak into a third around 4:00 PM.
In late February 2020, I got a Regal Cinemas pass. $20 a month. Unlimited movies. I’d found that as I’d gotten older I was veering more and more towards the smaller, art house fare and lost sight of the Hollywood stuff. This would ensure that I not only saw the Marvel movies but that I saw them on the big screen as intended. (I very famously, at least in our house, watched that 5-hour Avengers: Endgame picture on an airplane.)
In March 2020, Covid happened. Until about a month ago, I’d seen 10 of the movies of 2020. Watching a movie on my couch just didn’t do it for me. I’ve been trying to play catch-up but I’m not doing particularly well. Here are thoughts on the films of the year.
____________________
Top Three
#3. What Did Jack Do?
In David Lynch’s short film for Netflix, the filmmaker interrogates a monkey about criminal activity. It might be the strangest thing I’ve ever seen, and I once saw two Greek men end a shouting match in Astoria by throwing fish at each other. I loved every second of that, and this film.
Maciej Kasperowicz is a special cinematic correspondent for DaBearsBlog. He’s also a good friend, a dedicated Bears fan/Josie Woods loyalist and the voice I trust most when it comes to all things movies.
This is his follow-up to yesterday’s column. (Just scroll down and read it.)
Best Picture
Whoo boy.
Minari is pretty handily my favorite of these. Granted, I’m a sucker for immigrant family stuff, but it’s as good an old-fashioned family drama as I can recall. It’s almost like a great novel in all the ways that the five main characters are allowed to disappoint, surprise, forgive, and love each other. The movie never seems long, but when I think about how much real emotion and character development is packed into the fact that it’s under 2 hours long seems astounding. I can’t bring myself to think that something this good might win the year after Parasite, but there’s a world where the Amazon stuff gets enough of the progressive wing of the Academy off of Nomadland, it turns out that many people don’t actually like Chicago 7, and this both exciting and traditional movie has enough 2nd and 3rd place votes to actually win.
I am actually picking the favorite, Nomadland, to win, though, and I’ll be relatively happy when it does. Between Nomadland and Promising Young Woman, this has been a great year for totally fair and well-written criticism of movies I still rather like. If you haven’t been keeping up, Nomadland has a scene towards the beginning filmed at an Amazon facility, and mentions that evil megacorporation a few times off-hand, all without really taking any sort of stand on them (it has been pointed out that the book the movie is based on is less afraid to have people voice criticism).
I think that’s a fair reading, though I read Fern’s off-hand remark about how well Amazon pays more as a sad reflection on the available options than any sort of endorsement. Setting all that aside, Nomadland is absolutely gorgeous-looking. And, especially when it takes time to focus on the characters Fern meets along the way, I think it does a beautiful job portraying the search for some kind of freedom and control in a harsh society while allowing for glimpses of beauty and joy. Chloe Zhao rules.
If you’re the type of reader that enjoys a thorough evisceration, I’d recommend Ayesha Siddiqi’s shredding of Promising Young Woman, much like Nomadland, a movie I quite like while totally sympathizing with many criticisms of it. Indeed, it’s very much not the satisfying rape-revenge movie that its trailer promises (and that many people do still seem to be treating it as). If anything, it’s a deeply sad movie about repeated attempts to grab onto some kind of power or happiness that offers very little solace. I think the acting by Mulligan and a cavalcade of well-cast nice guys really carries it to something unique and good (though I don’t think the ending works).
While I totally see how Promising Young Woman isn’t for everyone, Judas and the Black Messiah seems an easy recommendation no matter what your tastes are. It both works great as a Departed/Infernal Affairs style undercover cop thriller and as a quick primer about the politics of the Black Panthers and the racism of the FBI. One caveat, specifically applicable to readers of this blog, is that you’ll have to tune out how much Cleveland, where the movie was shot, really doesn’t look like Chicago all that much.
I’m not quite as in love with Sound of Metal, but it’s also a really easy movie to like, with the approachable structure of an easily frustrated main character trying to overcome adversity, largely for love (of both music and a woman). The movie really strikes a chord (thanks Sandy Kenyon, I assume) when it questions what “adversity” really means in this case and again, as expected) in its sound design.
The Father, I wouldn’t recommend to everyone, as I know several people for whom movies about dementia and Alzheimer’s are a no go, but damn, it’s actually really good. Neither a Still Alice-style straightforward weepie nor a straight play adaptation, The Father plays some Lynch-y character tricks, and it really feels like it’s playing them on us and on Anthony Hopkins’ aging Anthony at the same time. The rest of the cast is superb, the production design is excellent, I was shocked at how much I liked it (though, again, I’m not quite sure it sticks the landing).
Maciej Kasperowicz is a special cinematic correspondent for DaBearsBlog. He’s also a good friend, a dedicated Bears fan/Josie Woods loyalist and the voice I trust most when it comes to all things movies.
Hello again. Welcome to the Marc Colombo of DaBearsBlog posts: super long, shows up like once a year, don’t know why you’d really have any expectations of it by this point.
It was a weird year for movies, have you heard? But much like every regular year, about a million movies came out, and you could watch rather many of them at home. Two weeks after my second vaccine a few weeks ago I went to two different movie theaters, and then went to three more the following week, so I’m incredibly thrilled theaters are back. But I didn’t find it remotely hard to watch movies at home, and it’s one of the things that kept my brain even sorta centered in 2020. I watched 450 or so movies at home, new and old, in the year or so between theater trips.
What the fuck else did I have to do?
__________________
The Oscars decided at some point last year to hope against hope that movie theaters would be open early this year and extended their eligibility period, though the open theaters never really came in significant numbers. That’s why movies like Minari, Judas and the Black Messiah, and The Father, which came out in 2021 for anybody that’s not a movie critic are represented here. All in all, it’s a pretty regular-seeming Oscar lineup, missing only a few embarrassing below the line nominations for a shitty Star Wars movie (Birds of Prey got robbed in costumes though).
Instead of shoehorning further Bears metaphors, this year I went with a little preview of the big categories to make your viewing of the Oscars (directed by Steven Soderbergh) slightly more informed.
But first…
A Note About Oscar Pools
I’m very far from an experienced gambler, and this is not a gambling advice article so the owner of this here site can probably correct me, but I think an Oscar pool works pretty similarly to a March Madness pool. If you’re in a small pool with like a dozen friends or co-workers (and they’re not Oscar obsessives), it’s probably smartest to just pick pretty close to chalk and trust that they’ll make picks for sillier reasons (like their perception of quality). There will be surprises for sure, but your average friend probably isn’t going to do that much better than the experts. Does that suck the fun out if it? Maybe. But winning is fun.
If you’re looking to win a pool with like 1000 ballots, you’re probably going to have to go bigger. One route could be picking longer shots in all categories that have less consensus, like the shorts, Best Actress, Adapted Screenplay, and Editing.
Another could be betting on individual films over-performing. No one thought Ford vs. Ferrari was a Best Picture threat last year, but it beat 1917 for Sound Editing and all the heavy hitters for Editing. Maybe everyone likes The Father enough this year that it takes Best Editing and Adapted Screenplay? Maybe everyone’s wrong about the apathy towards Mank and it takes not only Production Design (where it’s favored), but also other below the line awards like Costumes, Makeup, and Cinematography. Don’t get too cute, take your free squares (Boseman for Best Actor, Chloe Zhao for Director, Soul for Animated, Sound of Metal for Sound, Another Round for International), but find a way to differentiate if the field is huge.
__________________
Best Supporting Actor
If you pay a lot of attention to folks that write about the Oscars, you’ll often hear the phrase “category fraud” used to refer to actors in obvious leading roles pushed in the supporting categories where they’re more likely to win. This year we get both Judas (Lakeith Stanfield) and the Black Messiah (Daniel Kaluuya) from the film Judas and the Black Messiah as supporting actors, which is really funny. I think Kaluuya is the better of the two and a really great performance in general. Between this, Get Out, and Widows, Kaluuya’s firmly established himself as one of the best actors in the world, and I’ll be happy to see him get his Oscar here, despite it being a lead role.
The most obvious-seeming potential spoiler for Kaluuya (esp. after the vote-splitting possible after Stanfield’s surprise nomination) is Sacha Baron-Cohen in the Trial of the Chicago 7. The nicest thing I can say is that I don’t think he’s as terrible in that movie as Eddie Redmayne and Jeremy Strong. Or maybe it’s that I find it hard to separate his acting from how much I hate the screenplay. Regardless, this is SNL-level shit at best.
If the Bears stand pat at the twentieth overall selection, there is a range of potential impact players that will be available to them. Today, some links featuring those names.
Teven Jenkins, from KSNT in Kansas: “The biggest obstacle ever I feel like to me is when my mother passed when I was eight years old,” says Jenkins. “She passed away from breast cancer and that was the biggest obstacle for me and through the rest of my life there hasn’t even been anything close to that.”
There are crazily three legacy corners in this draft, all projected to go in round one. Patrick Surtain II and Asante Samuel Jr. are self-explanatory. Jaycee Horn is the son of Joe Horn. Ryan O’Halloran of the Denver Post breaks down the corner class, which will interest the CB-needy Chicago Bears.
The Bears love their southeastern scouts. And there’s a pass rusher out of Georgia – Azeez Ojulari – that is climbing many draft boards. There have even been some comparisons to Steelers’ legend Joey Porter. If there are even slight Porter-ish vibes, the Bears shouldn’t let a minute come off their draft clock.
Since the Bears hired Ryan Pace prior to the 2015 offseason, few teams have made fewer selections in the NFL Draft. But the Bears GM ranks among the best in the league at getting value with the pick he’s made. While misses like Mitch Trubisky, Adam Shaheen and Kevin White receive the most intention – rightfully, when it comes to the quarterback – Pace has been among the best in the league at making picks when it comes to the weighted career approximate value (CarAv). This is a metric used by Pro-Football-Reference.
Since Pace took over the team has made 39 draft picks. The only teams with fewer are Atlanta and New Orleans, while Carolina is tied. With those picks, Pace has managed a total approximate value of 407, just around the middle of the pack since 2015. The average CarAV amongst Pace’s picks is 10.4, the fourth-best average in the league.
Pace is often criticized for not valuing draft picks, but that oft-repeated notion seems unfounded.
Of the teams in the top 10 for average CarAV, only one, Baltimore, has used more than 45 draft picks since 2015.
Recent Super Bowl winners, Kansas City (42) and Tampa Bay (43), are all in the same ball park.
Other annual contenders like New Orleans (37), Buffalo (42) and Tennessee (44) also rank in the top 10.
Two other teams who are in the top 10 — Atlanta (38) and Carolina (39) — have made a Super Bowl in that span.
The only team in the top 10 without multiple playoff appearances since 2015 is the LA Chargers.
