“I don’t think he was that bad.”
“The coach didn’t have a good game plan for him.”
“Where were the screens?”Nope, not a Bears fan.
My brother-in-law (Packer fan) talking about Jordan Love’s first start.
— Adam Hoge (@AdamHoge) November 13, 2021
Pre-Bye Grade: B-
A few sentences: A quarterback’s rookie season is difficult to evaluate but the Justin Fields trajectory is that of a player who is going to be around a long time. He flashed big plays, even when struggling, and has translated those flashes into two dynamic performances against two solid opponents. B- is a fantastic grade for a rookie at this stage.
% Chance of Returning: 100
Thoughts on Return: Fields is the most dynamic player at quarterback in Bears history. All focus now shifts to building a roster to support him. (That means protection. Fields will make the skill guys better.)
Pre-Bye Grade: D-
A few sentences: The Bears lose to every good team they play. They never have a sideline advantage. They commit too many penalties. They make too many mistakes. Details are constantly ignored. The only thing keeping this grade from the basement is the development of Fields, for which Matt Nagy must be given at least some credit.
% Chance of Returning: 7.8
Thoughts on Return: The only way Nagy can plausibly return as head coach is if Fields dominates the second half and the Bears find themselves either (a) in the postseason or (b) seriously contending for a postseason spot, the final week of the season, with a winning record. Neither of those things is going to happen.
Based on some conversations with folks close to ownership, the team is ready to find the next coach.
Pre-Bye Grade: A+
A few sentences: Many are going to see that grade and think, “What the hell drugs is he on?” But Ryan Pace drafted – in this year’s draft – what looks like a franchise quarterback. That’s all that matters in this league. I don’t care what the old quarterbacks and tight ends cost. I don’t care what he’s doing with the cap. If he got the QB correct, and it looks like he did, everything will become easier for Bears in the years to come.
(This is not Pace’s grade for his tenure. Just his grade for this season, pre-bye.)
% Chance of Returning: 56.5
Thoughts on Return: It is close. But it’s looking slightly more likely that Pace will be allowed to choose another coach. He had a good draft in 2020 and a potentially transformative draft in 2021, including the selection of a franchise quarterback. Ownership could see these two years as a young GM making progress, lay the failures of the last few years at the feet of Matt and Mitch, and keep stability in their front office.
Bears ownership chose to keep Pace after 2020. He drafted Fields in 2021. Why would they fire him now?
Enjoy the football. I’ll be here, The Grillroom at TPC Sawgrass,
hopefully celebrating my first sub-90 on the Stadium.
Week 9 was one of the strangest in league history but two things struck a note of predictability: the Falcons couldn’t hold a lead and the Cowboys couldn’t win a big game.
Atlanta is figuring out their offense without Calvin Ridley, and it involves a heap load of “tight end” Kyle Pitts. (Side note: what makes Pitts a tight end? Because it sure isn’t the position he plays when on a football field.) This season’s offensive revelation has been Cordarrelle Patterson and the Cowboys don’t have an answer for him in the passing game.
Dallas is desperate. And home. These weapons aren’t being held down two weeks in a row. This feels like a game where both teams could get into the thirties.
There seems to be a general belief that at some point the Titans have to lose. But Mike Vrabel’s team had the most impressive win of the season Sunday night in Los Angeles; without their best player; on the back of their defense; against perhaps the league’s best team (before Sunday). Tennessee’s schedule down the stretch is a pathway to the number one seed. Sure seems like that is the direction in which they’re headed.
And while Sean Payton is one of the best coaches in the league, he’s now playing with third stringers at QB. (He opened the season with a backup playing the position.) Eventually, that car runs off the road. They lost last week and three of their next four are against the Titans, Bills and Cowboys.
Colts point totals since October 3rd: 27, 25, 31, 30, 34, 45.
Average: 32.
Jaguars point totals since October 10th: 19, 23, 7, 9.
Average: 14.5.
Colts 32, Jaguars 15.
This three-game parlay goes off at +581 so $100 bet will win you $681.38.
Many had targeted this week, the bye week, as the optimal time for the Bears to move on from Matt Nagy as head coach. But Justin Fields’ performances against the San Francisco 49ers and Pittsburgh Steelers – two good defenses, two teams playing for everything – will likely guarantee that Nagy sees out the remainder of this campaign.
And that’s the right decision.
This season needed to be entirely about Justin Fields and his development. (It hasn’t been, of course.) Over the last two weeks, the club is actually seeing tangible evidence of that development. Why would they do anything to stunt that progress in-season? The wins and losses don’t matter. The defense doesn’t matter. The weird personnel usages and return men bringing the ball out from five yards deep and penalties all over the place, they don’t matter. All that matters is Fields and Fields is currently an overwhelming positive. The Bears can’t disrupt that.
Nagy should (and likely will) be fired the second the 2021 season concludes. And if Fields continues on his current path, the head coaching candidates will be circling this vacancy like one of those dirty crows that circles your golf cart when you’ve got an open protein bar on the seat. An argument could be made that the new two-week window to interview coaches at the end of the regular season should expedite the process, and that argument is valid, but this is going to be THE destination coaching spot of the off-season. It comes with a quarterback. And these jobs rarely do.
Kmet’s last four games: 4/49, 5/43, 3/24, 6/87.
His 17-game projection: 53/546.
But more important than the numbers is the rapport now developed between the tight end and the quarterback. Fields has found his security blanket and Kmet is cementing his role as a pivotal part of The Justin Fields Project in 2022, joining David Montgomery and Darnell Mooney as charter members.
The biggest difference for the Chicago Bears offense the last two weeks, aside from their quarterback play, has been right tackle Larry Borom, and the fifth-round selection seems destined to be a ten-year contributor in the NFL.
In the first two starts of his NFL career, Borom has been matched against two of the best pass rushers in the league – Bosa and Watt. He’s had some expectedly rough snaps but his overall play is adding yet another intriguing rookie to what could be a transformational class. Borom wasn’t expected to start this quickly but now has the makings of another fifth-round steal for Ryan Pace. He is also the fourth rookie to give the Bears meaningful contributions this season.
(And all this with second rounder Teven Jenkins not playing a snap. If the Bears emerge from the 2021 draft with two starting tackles and a franchise quarterback, it becomes the stuff of legend.)
There are two unquestionable truths when it comes to Pace: he has left the team seriously lacking in talent at key positions and he has a rare eye for talent.
“That’s why you play him. That’s why there isn’t even a debate!” Bears fans should feel excited they have THE FRANCHISE at QB. Now Ryan Pace, find a HC who can win a Super Bowl with this guy. pic.twitter.com/xJWHJan1Y4
— Cam Worrell (@CamWorrell) November 9, 2021
This game has one storyline: the Bears have a quarterback who makes you think it’s not over when the ball is in his hands with 30 seconds left and no timeouts. That’s fun.
— DaBearsBlog (@dabearsblog) November 9, 2021
@dabearsblog pic.twitter.com/mP5r3dlqQU
— Hed Joyer (@JedHoyerEnjoyer) November 9, 2021
It is time to shift our collective gaze to the players who look to be part of the Justin Fields future in Chicago. There are several to peer at this evening.
Kmet has had two big drops the last two weeks but his production levels are starting to seriously rise as his rapport with Fields develops. 4/49, 5/43, 3/24 don’t look like gaudy numbers but Kmet’s season now projects to 47/419 and one would think those numbers will be higher as he’s trending to the positive. These aren’t great games (by any means) but they’re not bad considering he’s in the league’s worst offense. (Kyle Rudolph – a common comp for Kmet – had 53/493 in his second season. But he had nine touchdowns.) Kmet has given fans a reason to think he can be a productive NFL tight end. But the production must continue.
Considering he made his first start with Nick Bosa breathing on his face for three hours, Borom held up well against San Francisco. That’s the good news. The bad news is T.J. Watt is next on the docket. But just as it is important for Fields to play as a rookie, and struggle, it is equally important for Borom. Watt is going to beat him; he’s paid many, many monies to do so. But Borom should have a few victories as well and it’s those he’ll need to build confidence moving forward.
Yes, it’s a revenge game for James, but that’s not why he’s worth watching. He’s worth watching because he’s only 27 years old and has a defined chemistry with the quarterback. It is no surprise that the passing game looks its most dynamic when James is on the field; Fields spent all summer throwing to the damn guy. He’s got three targets in both of his games (the last two weeks) and he’s caught every ball thrown his way. Quarterbacks don’t usually want to see those guys leave town. (Ask Aaron Rodgers.) If James continues to give this dimension to the offense (and Fields) the Bears will be looking to keep him around a few more years.
Yep, two tight ends and a tackle. Are you ready for some football?
