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Between Drafting a Quarterback & Sticking with Fields, There is No Bad Option in Chicago

| November 30th, 2023

If the Chicago Bears have a Top 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, chances are strong that I’ll advocate for a move at quarterback this offseason. Why? Because I love what both Drake Maye & Caleb Williams have put on tape.

I think they’re the kinds of quarterbacks you wait years to draft, each squarely in the realm of Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence. Both are cuts above your standard prospect, but through overuse of the word “generational” many have recently begun to view both Williams and Maye as “Overhyped”, “Not That Good”, and all kinds of other derogatory phrases.

Let’s set the record straight: Drake Maye has one of the gaudiest arms on the planet. Not only can he make any throw on the football field, he does make every throw on a week to week basis. Caleb Williams, on the other hand, processes the game at an outstanding level while consistently showing off a sublime combination pocket movement, arm talent, and awareness that allows him to make plays that other QBs truly can’t dream of making.

If the Bears have the option to take one of these two players, I want them to go for it. I think these players are worth it.

But, and here’s the key point I’m trying to make, wanting Chicago to draft a QB if given the chance doesn’t mean “Robert hates Justin Fields” — Fields is a Top 20 QB & a bona-fide starter, but he’s also a limited passer that takes a ton of hits & needs an offense to cater to him more than his peers do. He’s a dynamic runner, but we’ve seen most running QBs struggle to sustain rushing (while staying healthy) over the course of a 17-game season.

Too many have made this quarterback conversation obnoxiously black and white — it’s devolved into split sides shouting “Well actually Caleb & Drake suck” or “Fields can’t play”… but neither statement is true. The kids are good, and Justin Fields has played well enough in Chicago to become a topic of trade conversations around the league. Regardless of what you prefer the Bears do at quarterback this offseason, neither answer is objectively bad & neither side needs to be treated as such.

I personally think the Bears have the opportunity to build an ideal landing spot for a rookie QB. Exciting WRs, a talented young OL, and a proven safety valve TE should make up a strong supporting cast. Drafting any QB this high is risky, but I think these rookies are worth the risk involved in moving on from Justin — especially since sticking with Justin is no sure thing either.

But despite my personal preference, it’s also possible that the Bears could build such a strong team around Justin that not winning more games would be nearly impossible. I personally think this team would struggle to keep the QB healthy (Fields’ average time to throw went up against a blitz-heavy team in Minnesota) and would eventually face defenses they don’t have answers for on offense, but until the Bears line up, play, and lose those games there’s no sense treating a Fields-led unit as if it’s doomed to fail.

A Fields-led 2024-2025 team has a better shot of winning 9-10 games & making the playoffs each year than drafting a rookie QB does — if that’s the direction Chicago goes, it’ll be the best pair of seasons they’ve had since 2005 & 2006. It’s been that long since Chicago won 9+ games in consecutive years — this result would not be “bad”.

But I also think the opportunity Caleb Williams & Drake Maye present gives Chicago a better shot at becoming a Super Bowl contender than sticking with Fields does. Explaining why each quarterback excites me so much will take full scouting reports, so we’ll save that for the offseason — but the prospects’ talent & the opportunity to reset the rookie contract clock (allowing Chicago to pay for an extra pair of Free Agents) allows Chicago to build a team that can compete with (and beat) the Chiefs, Ravens, and 49ers by 2025.

Regardless of which ‘side’ you’re on, I think that’s an exciting thing to talk about.

Podcast:

Nick and I recorded a podcast where we talked through Justin Fields in much greater detail — his strengths, his weaknesses, what we should expect to see him improve on, and where we think he’s likely done growing. Check it out here:

Your Turn: How do you feel about Chicago’s signal-caller?

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A Win is a Win – and Matt Eberflus Needed a Win

| November 28th, 2023

Last night’s gritty, ugly 12-10 win over the Vikings may soon become a career-defining game for their Head Coach — Matt Eberflus took the helm in Chicago and immediately articulated a plan to create a tenacious, turnover-hungry defense that would win games behind a balanced ball-control offense, and that’s exactly the plan we saw in action on Monday Night.

Can this plan work forever? We’ll know more in two weeks’ time as they take their second shot at the Lions. For now, sit back and enjoy a rare victory Tuesday — we never get enough of them.

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

The Good:

  • Chicago’s defensive turnaround deserves more than just a hat tip. I’ve written thousands of words about how disappointed I am in Matt Eberflus’ tenure with the Chicago Bears, but Chicago’s defense is playing too well to not give the man his flowers. Young players are developing (Gervon Dexter had a great game, Kyler Gordon has a nose for the football, Tyrique Stevenson has flashed competency in his rookie year, etc), core pieces are producing (namely Montez Sweat, who’s tilted the field for Chicago on key downs), and now that the defensive line seems to be creating pressure somewhat consistently the DBs are beginning to shine.
    • It’s good old-fashioned team defense, and who doesn’t love that? Everyone’s getting their fair share of takeaways — linebackers, safeties, and corners alike are getting chances to catch the ball, largely because the Bears haven’t left many safe areas to attack within their defense. What a difference a little pressure from the DL makes!
  • Jaylon Johnson is playing phenomenal ball right now. CB Jaylon Johnson has blanketed his matchups over the last two weeks and is giving himself chances to make plays on the ball — he swung the tide of the game early by picking off Josh Dobbs’ attempt at a Cover 2 hole shot, nearly hauled in a Pick-Six on a 3rd-down route-jump later in the game, and even deflected away a pass that landed in the hands of TJ Edwards.
    • Don’t get too hung up on the Pick-Sixes that he’s failed to successfully haul in — he’s playing with great process, letting him break on passes early and make plays on the ball. The INTs will come, and with Jaylon already at a career-high 3 INTs on the year it’s hard to imagine that he isn’t turning a corner. An extension may be in order after all.

  • The Offensive Line came up big late in the game. With the chips down at the end of the game, the Offensive Line provided clean pockets galore for Justin Fields’ winning drive. The blitz gave the OL trouble early, especially when an injury briefly sidelined de-facto OL captain Teven Jenkins, but when their QB most needed protection this young, hungry OL unit delivered just that.

The Bad

  • Screens, screens, and more screens. Brian Flores brought the house throughout the entire first quarter, but did OC Luke Getsy really need to call what felt like 15 screens in order to slow down the pass rush? Getsy’s game plan felt gratuitous, haphazard, and seemed to lack trust in its’ quarterback — The All-22 will tell us more about the opportunities Chicago passed up on down the field, but for now I can’t condone the way Getsy ran the game. You won’t win many games with an offense that stalls out early in the 2nd quarter and never seems to regain its mojo.
  • Penalties are becoming an issue. Despite this regime preaching a lack of penalties as a positive throughout last year’s lost season, Chicago has now allowed 143 yards on 13 penalties throughout the last 2 weeks. These free first downs annihilate Bears’ offensive drives while extending the drives of Chicago’s opponents, and as we saw this evening those penalties add up over time.
  • Chicago’s three late fumbles should’ve spelled the end. Roschon Johnson & Justin Fields’ fumbles within Field Goal range on the drive that would’ve given the Bears a 2-score lead were inexcusable. There isn’t a more lenient word I can use, either — after collecting your 4th takeaway of the evening, it speaks to a lack of team discipline that both Chicago’s lead runningback and starting quarterback fumbled the ball, giving up a lead to Minnesota in the process. Then, with the game on the line, Fields gave the ball away to Minnesota one again via a 2nd fumble. The timing couldn’tve been any worse.
    • If this was an isolated incident, just one game, I’d mark tonight’s fumbles as a bizarre fluke that wasn’t likely to happen again. But between the Denver game and nearly all of 2022, is it fair to say that Justin Fields may always have fumble issues? I imagine that’s a question the Bears will look to answer within the next few weeks.

The Ugly

  • Barely scraping a win out of a dominant defensive performance feels unsustainable (and all too familiar). While I’d love to write about how the defense has a path to creating 3-4 turnovers in every given week, life in the NFL isn’t so easy — teams will adjust to what the Bears are doing defensively, and I imagine Chicago’s defense will settle down at 1-2 turnovers per game. But when they aren’t +2 or +3 in the turnover margin, is their offense capable of scoring enough to win games regardless?
    • We’ll find out soon, but I have my doubts — the Vikings have a budding defense, but 12 points given 4 turnovers and outstanding field position feels like an underperformance. This game should’ve never been close, an early touchdown might’ve shut down the Vikings out for good, but despite all of the advantages Chicago’s defense provided its offense with, the offense still needed a late rally to secure the 2-point win. How long can they keep this up? We’ll find out.

Postgame Podcast:

Nick and I recorded a podcast where we talked through the ups, the downs, the ins, and the outs of Chicago’s big win here:

Your Turn: How do you feel about yesterday’s game?

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85 Comments

Checking Tape From an Ugly Game in Detroit

| November 22nd, 2023

Last night I dove deep into the Bears’ tape from Sunday’s abysmal loss in Detroit — throughout the stream I talked through:

  • What fueled the good parts of the Bears’ Sunday offense?
  • Who stood out on the Bears’ offensive line? Who was left lacking?
  • What made Chicago’s late playcalling so conservative? How did that affect their scheme?
  • Where are the Bears’ coaches making life harder on their players? How can they fix those issues?
  • What did the Bears do so well early to create Jared Goff’s turnovers? How can they build on their successes?
  • How did the Lions exploit the Bears late?
  • Rants & ravings about the future of the Bears
  • And much, much more

Check it out and let me know what you think!

Your Turn: What are your Thanksgiving plans?

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JT O’Sullivan Breaks Down Justin Fields

| November 21st, 2023

I was late starting my re-watch of the Bears’ game this week, so in the spirit of Thanksgiving I’m thankful for other content creators — JT O’Sullivan has a fabulous breakdown on a large majority of the Bears’ offense posted to his YouTube channel, and I’ll cover the defense later this evening.

If you like in-depth breakdowns, JT is your guy. Give it a look.

Your Turn: Which Bears player impressed you the most last Sunday?

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Reflecting on Matt Eberflus’ Latest Unbelievable Loss

| November 20th, 2023

To be honest with you, I still can’t believe the Bears managed to lose that game yesterday.

Statistically speaking, it was a historic loss — it’s the first time any team lost in regulation with a +3 turnover margin and 40+ minutes time of possession (Teams were 48-0 prior to Sunday), it’s a loss that saw ESPN qualify Chicago with an even higher Win Probability than their peak in the Denver game (98.4% today versus 98.1% in Week 4), and because it’s a divisional game you can be sure Lions fans will never allow this game to be forgotten.

But beyond that, beyond the nearly historic levels of embarrassment that Matt Eberflus has left the franchise answering questions about in postgame press conferences, today’s loss was a grim reminder of a truth we’ve all known for some time now:

Matt Eberflus’ football identity simply does not win in the modern NFL.

Eberflus coaches like every coach I grew up watching back in the early 2000s — defensively, he wants a team that’s simultaneously passive in their zone coverages but also aggressive in taking the ball away. Offensively, he wants a ball-control ground attack that eats up clock, churns out 1st downs, and protects the football at all costs. Today, he couldn’tve asked for more from his team:

  • Four turnovers on defense (finishing +3 on the day)
  • Clean game from his offense (one turnover, more 1st downs than Detroit)
  • 250+ combined yards from his QB
  • & and outstanding clock-killing drive late that left Detroit with less than 4:15 on the clock to pull off a miracle.

But, despite nearly everything playing out exactly according to Eberflus’ plan, Flus’ conservative nature continued to leave the door open for Detroit to creep back into the game because of the decisions Flus made in the highest leverage situations.

When Chicago scored in the late 3rd quarter to go up 19-14, Chicago very obviously should’ve attempted a 2-point conversion and tried to go up a full 7 points. A 5-point lead is as good as a 6-point lead, but a 7-point lead protects you against a potential opposing score — instead, Chicago kicked the extra point. Surely that won’t come into play later.

Then, as Chicago failed to convert a 3rd & 1 on their ensuing drive, the difference between a 6-point lead and a 7-point lead began to affect Eberflus’ decision-making — despite the Bears’ excellent record since Week 2 in 4th & 1/inches situations, Eberflus needed protection against an opposing touchdown. A 9-point lead is a 2-score game, whereas a failed conversion (no matter how unlikely) would’ve left the Bears vulnerable. Eberflus kicked, thus setting up what ultimately became Flus’ defining moment in this football game.

The Bears offense grinds their way down to the Detroit 23 to set up a 3rd & 7. The score is 23-14 and Chicago has killed almost 7 minutes of clock — a first down almost assuredly wins this game, as a conversion and the ensuing 3 plays would cost Detroit too much time (brings the clock near 2 minutes or begins burning timeouts). But what did Matt Eberflus do?

They ran the ball between the tackles into a 7-man box. They had 6 blockers. The free man picked up RB Roschon Johnson immediately and the play was stopped for a 2-yard gain. They played for the Field Goal, and they got what they wanted.

Holding only a 9-point lead, Matt Eberflus coached his team afraid of a Detroit reversal. Kicking the field goal ensured that Detroit needed 2 touchdowns to win. But had Chicago shown any aggression earlier in going for the 2-point conversion up 5, they could’ve entered that 3rd down with a 10-point lead and might have coached 3rd & 7 unafraid of Detroit scoring a touchdown & field goal in quick succession. They could’ve played to win the game.

But instead, they played not to lose it. They followed a decision-making pattern that’s become antiquated and they got punished for doing so. Once the Lions scored to bring the game within 5, nothing could’ve been more predictable than Chicago’s back-to-back runs up the gut that landed the Bears in an impossible 3rd & 10 with too much time left on the clock. Unsurprisingly, Chicago failed to convert, surrendered the lead, and lost a game that even Eberflus’ harshest critics thought he had in the bag.

This is Matt Eberflus’ legacy — he’s a true throwback to 2006, a conservative defensive mind that emphasizes playing hard within archaic defensive schemes & ground-and-pound offense, but his total lack of aggression speaks to his failure to innovate on both sides of the ball. In a league of innovators, he will always be (at least) one step behind.

He’s not the guy. He simply cannot stay past 2023. Thankfully, with now two games like this on Eberflus’ 3-8 record, George McCaskey would be hard-pressed to keep him.

We’ll save Good, Bad, and Ugly for tomorrow. Today, keep the focus on Flus.

Postgame Podcast:

Nick and I recorded a podcast where we talked through the ups, the downs, the ins, and the outs of Chicago’s latest loss here:

Your Turn: How do you feel about yesterday’s game?

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Previewing Fields’ Return Against the Detroit Lions

| November 16th, 2023

This game in Motown may be one of Matthew Eberflus’ last chances to show Chicago’s powers-that-be that the Bears are in good hands.

His starting quarterback is back in action, his offensive line is finally healthy, and his defense has been on a tear recently — Detroit may be very good (and an 8.5pt favorite over Chicago), but divisional games aren’t easily won in the NFL. If Matt Eberflus has something up his sleeve, now is the time to show it.

In this episode of Bear With Us, Nick and I dive into…

  • The driving forces behind the Bears’ defensive turnaround (& their sustainability)
  • A review of Matt Eberflus & Luke Getsy’s coaching performance to this point
  • A full unit-by-unit preview of the Bears-Lions game
    • Including a great discussion on the value of Chicago’s healthy offensive line
  • A look at the Bears’ (and Panthers’) schedule beyond this weekend’s contest
  • Various draft-day scenarios (Young QB vs Trade Down/WR) & what Fields can do to change our choices over these next 7 weeks
  • And much, much more…

It’s one of our best episodes yet in my opinion — check it out and let me know what you think!

Bonus: Previewing Keon Coleman, a Draft Target to know

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Are Bears in Midst of Defensive Revolution?

| November 15th, 2023

Last night I dove deep into the Bears’ tape from the now-old Thursday night game in New Orleans — throughout the stream I talked through:

  • What fueled the good parts of the Bears’ defense?
  • What moved the ball against Chicago and why?
  • Who stood out in the Bears’ defensive backfield? Who was left lacking?
  • Where are the Bears’ coaches making life harder on their players? How can they fix those issues?
  • What did Jack Sanborn do to make so many plays in relief of Tremaine Edmunds?
  • Which DBs stood out positively? Did any stand out negatively?
  • What caused Tyson Bagent’s struggles within the game? What can be fixed?
  • How do the Lions aim to beat you on offense?
  • And much, much more

Check it out and let me know what you think!

Your Turn: What, if anything, are you hoping to see change on Sunday?

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90 Comments

Reviewing Bears’ Defensive Standouts From Thursday Night

| November 14th, 2023

Yesterday I finally got access to the Bears’ All-22 from Thursday Night — let’s review some defensive highlights.

Andrew Billings is the beating heart of the Bears’ run defense

First off, Andrew Billings is so much fun to watch work. I’m a sucker for a big dude in the trenches making plays, and that’s exactly what #97 has been for Chicago all season long.

https://twitter.com/robertkschmitz/status/1724198523191673305

He’s a force to be reckoned with, even when double-teamed at the point of attack — here, on 3rd & 1, he simply refuses to be moved. I’m happy to see him extended.

Bryce Young and the turf became well-acquainted throughout the game

The Panthers’ rookie signal-caller spent the majority of Thursday Night on his back — sometimes that was the fault of Carolina’s simple route concepts/poor OL play, but sometimes you saw nice moments from the Bears’ defensive line that seemed to get after him in a hurry.

Justin Jones created more pressures than I remembered on re-watch, Gervon Dexter had his moments, but Montez Sweat was all over Bryce Young from jump street and made a physical impact on every play he could.

First, here he is chasing Young down on a bootleg…

And later, a Bears blitz got Montez Sweat free off the edge and Sweat made Young pay the price as he got rid of the ball.

It was a nice, physical game for Sweat. He rushed the passer better than any other Bears’ defensive lineman and often provided the only pressure Chicago could muster on some plays — even if that pressure wasn’t more than just moving Bryce Young off his spot.

Sweat does seem to have an edge to him he wasn’t playing with in Carolina, so I can’t help but wonder if his role as a leader on this defense may be invigorating him. Either way, Carolina certainly felt his presence throughout the game.

The Bears’ young DBs popped

Kyler Gordon had far & away his best game as a Bear, and if anything I’m disappointed all I have is one highlight to show from his performance.

He was a demon in run defense and a problem Carolina couldn’t solve in both man and zone coverages. He hunted short throws underneath and matched feet with receivers both down the field and over the middle — considering that Gordon was one of the worst CBs in the NFL last year, it’s been inspiring to see the strides he’s made as he’s learned to channel his agility while also growing as man-cover defender.

He started the year hot with a nice game against Green Bay too, so here’s hoping games like this are signs of future play to come.

It wouldn’t be one of my reviews without my being unnecessarily positive on Tyrique Stevenson, and you’d better believe I’m not going to stop now!

Stevenson and Johnson both took far too many penalties throughout Thursday Night’s game, but my expectations for rookie DBs are so low that I don’t mind seeing them from #29 — he’s getting better every game at managing his own physicality with WRs, and it’s leading to more and more reps that look like the one listed below.

Of course, I’d still love to see Stevenson given more chances to press his WR… but that’s a conversation for another day.

https://twitter.com/robertkschmitz/status/1724192243714498731

Gervon Dexter seems to be settling in

The recent Bears’ 2nd rounder struggled with basic movement as recently as the preseason, but seems to be settling in nicely at the halfway point of the season — the cross-chop he’s been working on since August is starting to show fruit, though the fruit isn’t ripe yet. Still, it’s nice to see that he’s improving.

Dexter is a project, but the juice feels worth the squeeze when you remember how naturally strong he is. Reps like the one below (where he simply throws his man aside) provide a light at the end of Dexter’s developmental tunnel — if he can learn to strike more efficiently and access that kind of power-base more often, he could be dangerous as both a 1-Tech & 3-Tech defensive lineman.

He still has plenty of technical issues to clean up, but he should be able to hone in on those issues as he gets more playing time — he played 29 snaps on Thursday, more than Andrew Billings, and if that’s any indication of how the coaches will continue to deploy him I imagine he’ll have plenty of time to work on his problem areas.

https://twitter.com/robertkschmitz/status/1724211641242259951

Note: Zacch Pickens also had quite a good game, though he only played 12 snaps to Gervon’s 29. I’ll try to get a clip or two up of his handiwork later.

Your Turn: What stood out to you in Thursday’s defensive effort?

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187 Comments

Bears Currently Winning Race For First Overall Pick

| November 13th, 2023

With the Arizona Cardinals looking more than functional in a big win over Atlanta, your Chicago Bears are once again in possession of the #1 overall pick.

In a season that’s seen nearly everything go wrong for Chicago, a positive like the Carolina Panthers’ 2023 implosion is not one to be taken for granted. Without Ryan Poles’ move to pick DJ Moore, the potential 2024 #1 overall pick, and even more draft assets from the Panthers’ pockets, Bears fans would be left discussing whether or not a win like last Thursday’s had sabotaged their future — instead, they can bask in the glory of a pair of Top 5 draft picks and a very reasonable chance at a franchise-changing Top 2 pick in 2024 (more on that another day).

No win is guaranteed in the NFL, but if we take a look at the Panthers’ upcoming schedule they’ve got quite a few doozies ahead.

Specifically…

  • Playing a great defense like Dallas is never easy for a young QB, plus Dak and the Cowboys’ offense always seem to shine against poor opponents
  • The Panthers’ division rivals (Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans) have each lost winnable games recently & should be motivated to ‘get right’ against Carolina
    • Also, with the Bucs currently sitting at 4-5 after yesterday’s win, there’s a very reasonable chance that the Buccaneers will carry playoff hopes into their Week 18 contest
  • Tennessee & Jacksonville each host the Panthers, only adding to those games’ difficulty
  • And then there’s the Packers, but with Carolina facing Green Bay so late it’s worth wondering whether the Packers will finally see their injured defenders (Jaire Alexander, Quay Walker) return & bolster a struggling unit. Those additions may tip the balance.

I couldn’t be more biased — I want the Bears to pick at #1 again, after all — but there’s a very reasonable chance the Panthers win 1 game or less going forward. If that’s all they manage to win, they currently hold Strength of Schedule tiebreakers over the Giants, Cardinals, and Patriots and would ultimately deliver the first pick in the 2024 draft to Chicago. An exciting thought.

Their trip to Tennessee should be a pivot game — if Will Levis and DeAndre Hopkins can overcome the post-bye Panthers, Carolina won’t have much runway left on the schedule. But we’ll have to wait and see.

Your Turn: What, if anything, has you upbeat about the Bears right now?

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265 Comments

Chicago Bears Dominated Their Foe, Secure Future On Thursday Night

| November 10th, 2023

Coming out of halftime, Bears’ Head Coach Matt Eberflus promised the nation that he ‘had tricks up his sleeve’ in the 2nd half of Chicago’s game against the Carolina Panthers. He may not have had much more in mind than a battering D’Onta Foreman touchdown run and a suffocating defensive gameplan, but he reached into his sleeve and pulled out a gritty, ugly win on Thursday Night Football all the same.

Sometimes we don’t ask how the win happened, we simply ask how many wins the team can provide. Chicago’s latest win keeps their own playoff hopes alive (even if only technically) while pushing Carolina down a path that the Panthers may not recover from this season — with Chicago holding onto Carolina’s 2024 1st round draft selection, that’s great news for the Bears indeed.

ESPN Analytics list the Bears as having a 42% chance at the 2024 NFL draft’s #1 overall pick, with even better odds that they land a top 2 pick rather than exclusively #1. That’s great news for Chicago regardless of whether you want to see the Bears reset at Quarterback or not — as we saw in last year’s DJ Moore trade, high picks are valuable commodities that create extraordinary opportunities for the teams that possess them.

Thursday’s contest was anything but a pretty game, and chances are the results didn’t change your opinion of Matt Eberflus one way or another. If you didn’t like him before, his conservative offensive game-plan, goofy halftime quote, and bizarre decision to kick the extra point with the score at 10-15 (rather than going for 2 and playing for a 7-point lead) likely didn’t sway you now. But if the offensive line’s recent chutzpah and the defense’s clear improvement have gotten you thinking about what Flus’ vision could look like given another offseason, I wouldn’t blame you for that either.

Next week’s Detroit game looms large for Matt Eberflus — if he wants to make a statement, he’ll need to make it in his trip to Motown. But between then and now, enjoy 11 days of that winning feeling.

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

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