We now take on the second half of the league.

• The AFC North – like seemingly every year – is Baltimore v. Pittsburgh. The Ohio teams seem even more useless this season.
• Here’s my breakdown of the AFC East. I think Buffalo should be a more significant favorite. I think the Jets are actually a bit undervalued. I think I have no idea what New England is going to be since half their roster opted out and they don’t know who their quarterback is going to be Week 2. I think Miami is exceedingly well-coached but how much FitzMagic can they muster again? I’m going to bet on the Bills.
• AFC North parlays: 7 Ravens, 3 Steelers.
• AFC North parlays: 6 Bills, 2 Patriots, 1 Dolphins, 1 Jets.

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There are plenty of ways to full-season gamble on the NFL. Fantasy football. Over/unders. Player props. (Somewhere I have a Trubisky 2019 MVP ticket from Borgata in Atlantic City.) But last year, some friends and I began experimenting with a new one: parlaying every division winner. A $5 parlay on all the favorites winning their respective divisions will pay north of $1500. If you start working in some underdogs you can be looking at a payout between $3500-4000. They’re not easy bets to hit but they’re fun bets to follow.

It’s also an interesting way to present a de facto NFL preview. (I just took screenshots of the odds from the DraftKings Sportsbook app, so there’s no rhyme or reason to the order which they’ll be presented.) Here’s part one.

• I think the NFC West is a place to experiment because I think all four of those clubs could win that division, with Arizona the longest of the shots. How is Sean McVay going to respond to his first real dose of adversity in the league? How is Seattle going to perform as they’re set to lose their greatest strength, the league’s best home field advantage? The Niners better be successful on the ground because they have one of the more underwhelming collections of receivers in the league.
• The Chiefs are the biggest divisional favorite in the league and they should be. Will one of my ten parlays maybe throw the Broncos into the mix? Maybe. But I don’t even think a significant injury to Mahomes would be enough to knock them out of the top spot. That’s not confidence in Chad Henne or Matt Moore but more confidence in Andy Reid to find a way.
• Out of ten parlays, I’ll have the Niners in 4, Seahawks in 4 and Rams in 2.
• Out of ten parlays, I’ll have the Chiefs in 9 and Broncos in 1.

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The two quarterbacks

Dueled in the Chicago sun.

Anybody win?

Mack, motivated.

Fear is coming off the edge.

Hell follows with him.

As a long-suffering Bears fan, it’s become a semi-tradition to dust off the gem above every September as kick-off nears.

Maybe it’s to try to hype myself up like a haka dance.

Maybe it’s to steel myself.

Maybe it’s so I just don’t check out entirely in order to do something more productive, or at least far less infuriating, than watching yet another Bears season.

I glance at IG stories with a hint of envy. There’s my homie on top of a Malibu hiking trail overlooking the Pacific. There’s my other friend training for a marathon and MMA. Another smoking a blunt at a BBQ. There’s that chick sipping mimosas poolside.

And here I am in my mancave, screaming at the pirated, pixelated Bears, venting online to some internet Fight Club support group.

And yet I keep doing it. Season after season, year after year.

My step-dad, a hard working earnest man, always asks me with a shit-eating grin, “You ready for a new season?” It comes complete with a mixture of pity and admiration. Then it just trails off in his drawl, “I dunno how you do it” and he’s off to work on his 57 Studebaker.

Honestly, I never used to think about it. It just became habit – like being stuck in a bad marriage. Aristotle once observed that most don’t even recognize the best time of their lives until much later and the same can apply to the worst times.

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[REDACTED] is a fella I’ve known for a long time and he’s made some appearances on this here site previously. He’s a neighborhood friend, who just happens to be a high-profile member of a professional football organization. His brother is somebody who can drink as much Guinness as I can. (And that ain’t easy to do.) It’s been a crazy summer but I finally got him to respond to an email.

———-

DBB: I think the Bears have one of the best defenses in the league. So here’s my hypothetical question. Aside from injuries, if they’re not a great defense, why?

[REDACTED]: I got nothing, Jeff. They’re not great opposite Fuller or Jackson on the back end but with that front they don’t have to be. Nobody can afford eleven All-Pros on either side of the ball but that defense is pretty close. Without Goldman, they need Hicks to stay healthy or the middle of their defensive line could become an issue against the run.  

DBB: Do you think Ryan Pace will start Mitch Trubisky to protect his own ego?

[REDACTED]: Once they declined the fifth year, they made their feelings pretty well-known around the league. But we do feel ownership over the guys we draft, especially the guys we draft early. He and Matt will be looking for signs from Trubisky whereas they won’t be with Foles. They know what they’re getting there. But our folks just think Trubisky doesn’t process the game fast enough and that deficiency doesn’t reveal itself until Sundays. 

I drafted a back once. Fought like hell in the organization for him. We took him relatively early and in camp we thought we found the next Barry Sanders. His first action was later on in our second preseason game and he was lost. Third preseason game was worse. Kid never got off the practice squad. I still defend the pick. I mean, I was clearly wrong about him but I defend picking him.

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Saturday would have been the third preseason game; the final opportunity for those trying to grab the 2-3 spots at the bottom of the roster. Instead Saturday was just another Saturday, and the last time any laymen would have an opportunity to look at the 2020 Chicago Bears before their season opener.

How Different This Summer Has Been

Writing about an NFL team has a seasonal rhythm to it. After the dead period of May and June, July begins a slow, deliberate crescendo to the nervously thrilling first whistle of opening day. In my case, there’s always a boozy, beachy Labor Day weekend that serves as a calm before the season’s storm. Then that Tuesday it’s all day, every day, until the season ends. Not this year, except for the boozy bit.

No fans at training camp has meant no leaked video or secretive email reports. These usually start flooding my email box on the first day of camp and don’t stop. And honestly, they’re pretty helpful. Last year, while many were excited about the prospect of Riley Ridley making a rookie impact, I was getting word early on that the kid was completely overwhelmed by the professional game. Turned out to be the truth.

The media isn’t shown anything of worth anymore and now can’t say much about what they are shown. So we’re left with scraps of reports.

No joint practices or preseason games means there’s nothing to which we can tangibly react, which has predictably taken all the dramatic steam out of the quarterback competition. This summer, for the first time since I started doing this, I was excited for the preseason because it was going to determine the starting quarterback.

Instead the season will just…start. Sunday September 13th will come. We will all wake up, have our breakfast, settle into our routines, and the game will begin. And fans across the league will be surprised by what they see.

Statement from Chicago Bears Players

Like many in the sports world, the Bears took a pause on Thursday to meet and discuss the racial issues facing our country. Their statement:

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It’s remarkable to think the NFL is going to kickoff the 2020 season in Kansas City two weeks from yesterday. But barring a Covid tsunami or another testing lab debacle in New Jersey or the players mounting an NBA-style walkout, the show will seemingly go on. So with so little time remaining before they start keeping score, what don’t we know about the 2020 Chicago Bears?

How Will the Backfield Look?

In the wake of David Montgomery’s injury, the Bears could use Cordarrelle Patterson and Tarik Cohen to piece together their backfield. Or they could elevate the status of undrafted free agent Artavis Pierce. And why not? We see “scrap heap” type backs emerge around the league every year. If Juan Castillo gets them blocking up front, Pierce could become as a key component of the offense. Why not give the kid a shot to carry the load? He’s got talent.

Who is the Quarterback?

A tale of two tweets.

Tweet 1.

Amazing panel of 7 #Bears reporters. Most believe Foles has slight edge now, but end result was a 4-3 projection that Trubisky will start vs #Lions in opener. This shocked us. @DickersonESPN @danwiederer @kfishbain @dmillerabc7 @MarkPotash @patrickfinley @JJStankevitz pic.twitter.com/62K4QAH5Hr

— Silvy (@WaddleandSilvy) August 26, 2020

Tweet 2.

As far as the #Bears QBs, Nick Foles turned in the best period we’ve seen thus far. More on that later as well. pic.twitter.com/EG4o0H1dtq

— Adam Jahns (@adamjahns) August 26, 2020

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It’s a weird position, running back. While many, including myself, had high expectations for Montgomery, every year we see a half dozen backs emerge off the free agent scrap heap and have productive seasons. If the Bears get decent quarterback and line play, they should be able to survive losing Montgomery for an extended period without taking too much of a hit.

Now they must search for his replacement. Options include:

• C.J. Prosise
• Devonta Freeman
• Spencer Ware
• Bilal Powell

Flip called Nick Foles a point guard. Nagy has praised #BDN’s ability to process information. It’s these two attributes that should make him the frontrunner to start against the Detroit Lions in a few weeks.

The reasons why are pretty simple.

(1) The Bears have a pretty standard 1-2 punch at wide receiver with Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller. But outside of that combination they’re going to be looking at a unique collection of players to move the football through the air. Tarik Cohen and Cordarrelle Patterson are hybrid backs that present match-up problems. Jimmy Graham is a “tight end” who doesn’t block but has shown a propensity to be uncoverable down in the red zone. These are guys who need the football in their hands quickly, and in space. A second or two of indecision from the quarterback could cost the Bears a big play.

(2) This team’s offensive line is not as bad as many suggest but they’re not one of the league’s best units, especially on the outside. Both Charles Leno and Bobby Massie are good players but they’re unlikely to hold the edge for 4-5 seconds. It will be imperative for the signal caller of this offense to read the defense QUICKLY and get the ball out of his hands. This has been one of the more intense weaknesses in Mitch Trubisky’s game.

(3) Who is more accurate with the deep ball? It’s not very close. From Data a while back:

Both have a very low completion percentage, but Foles is around league average in yards/attempt, while Trubisky is awful there. This suggests that Foles takes deeper “deep” shots, and thus gets a higher yards/completion mark to make up for his low completion percentage.

Foles has higher than normal rates of both touchdowns and interceptions, which leaves him around the league average in TD:INT ratio on deep shots. I don’t put too much stock in these numbers for Foles due to a small sample size; he only has 89 deep passes compared to over 200 for every other QB in the table, so we’re talking a total of 8 TD and 6 INT here. Still, the data at least suggests to me that Foles is aggressive in his deep passes, giving his guys a chance to make a play but also leaving himself prone to defenders making a play on the ball.

And the Bears now have, in Teddy Ginn and rookie Darnell Mooney, two players capable of taking the top off every defense in the league.

This space will not be used only to argue for Foles starting over Trubisky. But unfortunately it’s incredible difficult to make the argument for the other side.