Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears…

…but this is a team in complete freefall.

A Personal Note

This blog started in 2005. But 2006 was the first year things were taken seriously around here and that coincided with a magical run to the Super Bowl. From that season until Jay Cutler’s injury in the middle of 2011, it was a pleasure writing about the Chicago Bears daily. They weren’t perfect, by any means, but they were interesting.

But from then until now – with the exception of the 2018 mirage – it has been exhausting. Just think about all the mistakes this franchise has made:

• Jerry Angelo was not a great GM but the team went to the NFC title game in 2010 and were 7-3 before their starting quarterback got hurt in 2011. The team decided THAT was the time to fire Angelo? (I wrote then that it was not and was slaughtered for that opinion.)
• They hired Phil Emery, a candidate on very few radars. (Folks close to Ted Phillips have told me this is the most distinct regret of his time with the Bears.)
• Emery fired Lovie Smith after the 2012 season. Lovie was 11-5 in 2010, 8-8 (Hanie) in 2011 and 10-6 in 2012. And was fired.
• With reigning Coach of the Year Bruce Arians sitting in a hotel room, desperate to coach Cutler and the Bears, Emery hired CFL legend Marc Trestman to lead the Bears. It didn’t look like all that bad a choice in year one. Year two was a different story. Kromer rats out Jay to the media, then confesses. Jay is benched for Jimmy Clausen and Reverend Dave and I are forced to sit through it live.
• Bears hire Ryan Pace. Pace hires John Fox. Is that the coach he wanted?
• Pace drafts Trubisky over Watson without so much as meeting with Watson. Fox admits he was kept in the dark during this process. What’s odd about that? I KNEW THEY WERE DOING THIS THE MORNING OF THE DRAFT! But again, my connections are at the President/ownership level.
  • What both of these decisions show clearly is the Bears are not functioning as a single organization. They are separate entities, with separate intentions, trying to weld those intentions into a cohesive plan. And that doesn’t work in the NFL.

Mistake after mistake after mistake. Exhausting.

Fun Christmas Song Performances: Volume I

I’m in Christmas mode. (And I have no interest in writing a breakdown of Texans v. Bears. Honestly, who cares?) Here are some fun performances of great Christmas songs. I’ll add a few more to this list over the next few weeks.

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Santa Claus Wants Some Lovin, A Very Murray Christmas

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As a research exercise, I decided to compile playoff appearances from across the league for the decade 2010-2019. Here’s the breakdown. The teams in bold won the Super Bowl. The teams italicized lost the Super Bowl. And some, you’ll notice, did both.

10: Patriots

8: Seahawks, Packers

7: Chiefs

6: Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Saints

5: Broncos, Bengals, Colts, Eagles, Falcons

4: Panthers, Vikings, 49ers

3: Lions, Cowboys

2: Bears, Rams, Cardinals, Washington Football Team, Bills, Chargers, Titans, Giants

1: Jaguars, Raiders, Dolphins, Jets

0: Bucs, Browns

Thoughts on the numbers:

• 13 teams made the postseason five or more times in this ten-year span. They won nine Super Bowls, with the Pats taking three. This league is about sustained success – getting into the tournament as often as you can and then getting hot in January.

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Welcome to No Man’s Land.

That’s where the Chicago Bears organization resides on December 9, 2020. They’re not a talented, aging team with a closing championship window. They’re not a young, rebuilding side with their eyes on the future. They’re nowhere. They don’t exist.

Two years ago that was not the case. Coming out of the 2018 campaign the defense was stacked. The head coach was a breath of fresh air. The quarterback had shown enough promise under the new regime to make fans believe he could be “they guy”. Now the defense is fading before our very eyes. The head coach has relinquished play-calling duties and any sense of job security. The quarterback will be looking for a job come March.

And there are only three possible roads forward. (For the sake of argument, let’s assume Ted Phillips is re-assigned away from football operations. It’ll likely happen as a symbolic gesture, if nothing else.)

Road One. Do That To Me One More Time.

Ryan Pace would be entering the final year of his contract. Matt Nagy would be entering the penultimate year of his contract; a de facto final year as coaches rarely work on a “final” year for some reason no one has ever clearly explained to me. The factors that could lead to George McCaskey bringing both back:

• The defensive contracts. Kyle Fuller has voidable 2022-23 seasons. Akiem Hicks is off the books after next season. Per Sportrac, Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn have “outs” after next season. The guys on this defense in 2020 are likely to be the guys on this defense in 2021. But the unit could look ENTIRELY different in 2022.
• As Andrew pointed out yesterday, Nagy could argue two things: (a) the offense is improving and (b) he needs better players, including a quarterback. (Where that quarterback would be coming from is a different matter entirely.) He could also make a needed change at defensive coordinator to reinvigorate that side of the ball.
• The post-Covid salary cap. The new GM’s role this off-season would be a complete tear down because there’s not going to be any money to enhance the current roster. Do the Bears really want to try and send Fuller, Mack and company out of town this spring and commit to a 2-3 win 2021? Can the organization afford to have an apathetic fan base in September? (They would.)

Road Two. Go Your Own Way.

Would the Bears fire one and not the other? It’s possible.

The Ryan Pace decision is too easy – even for the McCaskeys. You don’t even have to get to the Trubisky bust, other failed trades/high picks, FA mistakes.

6 yrs with 39-53 record
3 QB misses
2 bad head coaches
1 winning season
1 drafted QB
1 more yr under contract
0 playoff wins

— Joe Ostrowski (@JoeO670) December 7, 2020

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Bears blow a game they had no business blowing.

The season is over.

Now what?

[Note: The thoughts below were written in REAL TIME. So as things change, thoughts change. That’s life.]

Quarter One

• Cordarrelle Patterson’s opening kickoff return told me something: the Lions have not realized that kicking to Patterson is a terrible idea with this offense.
• Television perfectly frames the sport of football. Why on earth would Fox move the camera off the line of scrimmage?
• On the second first down of the opening drive, Mitch could have run for 20 yards. But instead throw a ball into Cole Kmet’s crotch. Can we officially stop calling Trubisky a running threat?
• Would I have gone for it on that first fourth down? Yes. But Matt Nagy is coaching with a different mindset than I would be. Nagy is coaching to make the playoffs this year and field goal is the clear percentage play.
• The thing I miss most about watching the Bears in a bar is not listening to broadcasters. Did Spielman just refer to Roquan Smith as RAEKWON Smith? Like the rapper?
• The back-to-back tackles from DHC and Buster Skrine on third and fourth down were exactly the kinds of plays Nagy was looking to see from his defense after Sunday night’s debacle.
• Bears first TD drive: no third downs faced, ran it down their throats, brilliant David Montgomery drive to finish. Can the Bears play the Lions every week?
• The pass rush is officially non-existent. Mack is invisible. Quinn continues to be invisible. No lead is safe if you’re completely unable to pressure the quarterback. Stafford did not have to complete a difficult pass on the quarter-closing touchdown drive.
• A blocked and doinked extra point in one quarter. It’s not surprising that neither of these teams have winning records.
• Trubisky actually throws the football away on first down, instead of taking a ten-yard sack. But why is he so opposed to getting a few yards with his legs? At this point it is malpractice for him not to use what is his most unique asset.

Bears 9, Lions 6

Quarter Two

• There is nobody in this Lions secondary that can cover Allen Robinson. He should have 150 yards today.
• One positive thing about Mitch is he does have a good hard count. And for this offense, the difference between 1st & 5 and 1st & 10, is miles.
• Cordarrelle walks in for an easy touchdown and makes the game 16-6. This is the best performance by the offensive line and backs all season. And it’s not close.
• Mack sacks Stafford and Skrine commits an illegal contact, giving Lions life. Just feels like a moment the Bears will rue. (On replay, the call is abysmal.)
• 3rd & 10, 4:36 remaining in the half: Mitch throws a ball over the middle that should have been intercepted. Slow read, slow delivery, tight window. It is simply a throw he can not attempt in that spot. And it’s those kinds of decision that hold back his development. When it’s not there on 3rd & 10, dump it off to Mooney in the flat and let your playmaker try to make a play.
• Roquan “Don’t Call me Raekwon” Smith just defended a screen to Kerryon Johnson about as well as a linebacker can. Sniffed it out, the ball got completed, tracked down the back for a two-yard gain. Brilliant, brilliant stuff.
• Then on 3rd & 13, no pass rush. Zone defense. Easy completion for Stafford. Then a bomb touchdown on the next play. What has happened to this defense? Why is there zero pass rush? How much money has to be poured into that position to make Stafford mildly uncomfortable? On both of those big completions, per Adam Hoge, Mack and Quinn were in one-on-one situations. Nothing.
• Every time I watch Stafford I think the same thing. Put him on a contender next year and he’s winning playoff games.
• Anthony Miller performing on the first-half ending drive like he’s expected to perform. Tough catches. Tough runs. If this kid showed up weekly, he’s be a viable second option for this club. But he doesn’t do that.
• David Montgomery played his best half as a Chicago Bear.
• With time winding down, Skrine gives Jones the inside leverage for ANOTHER long completion. No, the pressure did not do its job, but with safety help over the top, why are the corners giving this kind of space?
• The Hail Mary could easily have been caught.

Hard to see a scenario where the Bears don’t hit the 30 mark in the game. So if this game is lost, it falls entirely on one side of the ball: the defense.

Bears 23, Lions 13

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His name is Bear. But he’s a lion.

BYU (9-0) at Coastal Carolina (9-0)

5:30 PM ET, ESPNU

A big, strong kid with a big arm and sparkling college resume. When you watch Wilson on tape, though, it’s the improvisational skills that stand out. When plays break down, he doesn’t panic. He goes “schoolyard” and makes things happen. There’s a bit of Favre to this kid. There’s a bit of Kyler to him too. He’s got the skills but he also has the swagger and style. He won’t only be comfortable leading a football team. He’ll be comfortable as the face of a franchise.

The question is whether the Bears will even have the opportunity to get him.

Watch This Throw.

This Zach Wilson throw >>>>> pic.twitter.com/WAM5mIcV7x

— Nick Farabaugh (@FarabaughFB) December 1, 2020

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Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And the Lions stink.

Best Tweets from Patricia & Quinn’s Former Players

These guys seemed…popular.

What is it going to take for franchises to realize there is no “Patriot Way”. There is Bill Belichick, a certifiable football genius. There was Tom Brady, the greatest quarterback to ever play. That – and an historically bad division around them for two decades – was why they won all those games.

(Also, it is thought that Patricia has been lighting up the Lions via a Twitter burner account in the last few days.)

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Welp 🤷🏾‍♂️

— Ezekiel Ansah (@Ziggy_Ansah) November 28, 2020

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I was the problem tho😂😂😂 https://t.co/B5GG29ilqt

— Darius Slay (@bigplay24slay) November 28, 2020

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Haha told me you’ll take my career away from me but I guess they have other plans for you 😂😂

— AshawnRobinson (@AshawnRobinson) November 28, 2020

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about to text bob quinn see if he straight. 😂

— Eric Ebron (@Ebron85) November 28, 2020

Trubisky vs. the Lions For the Final Time?

Wrote the following in the Week One Game Preview:

Mitch Trubisky’s success against the Lions is not a myth. But it is absurd.

In five career games, he has completed 70.1% of his passes for 1,359 yards, 11 TDs and only 4 INTS. That’s a passer rating of 106.3.

In his three starts against them under Matt Nagy, those numbers move to 74.7%, 9/1 TD to INT and a rating of 132.4. And most importantly, three victories.

Let’s take just touchdowns and interceptions for a second. Remove the Lions numbers from Mitch’s totals and he’s at 37 TDs and 25 INTs. That’s…horrendous. It’s quite remarkable how these Lions performances have skewed his poor career statistics slightly more positive.

Trubisky’s week one performance? Crap until the fourth quarter but he ended with 242 yards, 3 TDs, a 104.2 rating and the victory. I mean, seriously, is there any reason to think Trubisky won’t beat the Lions Sunday?

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The story feels written. The outcome assured. After the full-team collapse Sunday night in Wisconsin, it will surprise no one if, at season’s end or sooner, George McCaskey and family fire Ryan Pace, fire Matt Nagy and reassign Ted Phillips within the organization, away from football operations.

But for those wanting these changes to take place yesterday (or the day before) it is time for a pragmatic pause. Because while this season feels over, it is not actually over. The Bears face the bad Lions, with an interim coach and lame-thumbed quarterback, Sunday at Soldier Field. They face the bad Texans, who were apparently popping PEDs like Sweet Tarts, in that same building the following week. If they win both of those of those games they will be 7-6 and viably challenging for spot in the tournament.

And making the tournament still matters. The Bears, for as bad as they’ve looked offensively through this five-game losing streak, are one game out of the 7th spot and a game and a half out of the 6th spot currently held by Tampa, a team they have beaten. Just because this current incarnation of the club has zero shot of winning the Super Bowl doesn’t mean a playoff berth ceases to be an achievement. Winning these next two games would, if nothing else, earn Pace and Nagy the right to complete this 2020 campaign. That’s it. It would allow them the opportunity to fix the mess they’ve created. Is that likely? Of course not.

If the Bears lose EITHER of these next two games, the time for pragmatism ends. A seventh loss with three (or four) to play ends the dream of January football. And not making the playoff field in a year where the NFC has this little depth is certainly cause for termination. If the Bears lose either of these next two games, Pace and Nagy should be fired the following day. (The Ted reassignment can happen whenever.)

Will making changes in-season have any tangible impact? Unlikely. A few reasons:

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With the 12th pick in the 1999 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears select Cade McNown, quarterback, UCLA.

QB rating through 25 total games with the franchise: 67.7.

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With the 22nd pick in the 2003 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears select Rex Grossman, quarterback, Florida.

Best QB rating during his Bears tenure, 2006: 73.9.

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With their first-round picks in 2009 and 2010, the Chicago Bears trade for Jay Cutler, quarterback, Denver Broncos.

Number of seasons with a QB rating over 90: 1.

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With the second pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears select Mitchell Trubisky, quarterback, North Carolina.

QB rating ranking league-wide in 2019: 28th.

(This year he would be around 26th, only because Nick Foles is on the list.)

That’s it. That’s the post.