Monday I wrote a piece endorsing the return of Ryan Pace, Matt Nagy and Mitch Trubisky in 2021. The piece in no way insinuated any of these individuals be given ferry boats of cash or long-term extensions. It simply suggested that the offense’s long-awaited improvement, which is now historic for this organization, warranted another look. Players, coaches and systems all develop on their own unique timelines and perhaps this player (Mitch), this coach (Matt) and this system (Matt by way of Bill Lazor) took this long.

“But Jeff, didn’t you say…”

“Jeff, weren’t you the one who suggested…”

“Jeff, after Detroit, you wanted to…”

Yes, I did.

Yes, I was.

Yes, I would have.

But I chose to headline Monday’s column with the words “I Was Wrong” for a reason. Why are we so afraid to be wrong when it comes to sports? What does it matter? We have opinions on things in life every day and circumstances often change those opinions. Hell, there were 782,000 divorces in the United States last year alone.

But a better example…

Jim doesn’t like spinach for the first 32 years of his life. Whenever his wife cooks it, he complains about the smell, complains about the look, tells stories about his mother forcing it on him as a child.

Then he goes to Gene & Georgetti, tries it sautéed with garlic and lemon, and discovers, “Yea, this is good.” Now Jim likes spinach. Does Jim keep telling his wife he doesn’t like it? Does he stay beholden to his previous opinion because he held it for so long he believes it to be part of his culinary identity? No. Of course not. Because he’s not insane. (Unless he is insane, and in that case he would continue to endlessly bash spinach on Twitter while consuming it at levels that would make Popeye blush.)

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I think the Bears are gonna win Sunday.

And I think it’s gonna be because of their offense.

And I think folks aren’t gonna know what to do with that.

— DaBearsBlog (@dabearsblog) December 18, 2020

The Bears scored 30 points again.

The Bears gained 400 yards again.

The quarterback, with the exception of a couple throws, pitched another stellar rating and looked a different player.

There has been a tectonic shift at the crust of the Chicago Bears organization. Matt Nagy, Bill Lazor and Mitch Trubisky have figured it out. Don’t ask me how, but they have. Suddenly the offensive line is a cohesive, powerful unit. David Montgomery is one of the best running backs in the league. Allen Robinson is a bona fide number one. Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney are two of the more exciting rookie skill guys in the sport. This scattered collection of puzzle pieces has been put together and the picture is a thing of beauty.

Perhaps most importantly, the Bears are playing an exciting, entertaining brand of football. They are a threat to score every single time they get possession. They are a joy to watch.

And guess what? I was wrong.

Yep, someone in sports “media” is saying it.

I was wrong.

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(Photo of Trask by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

If the Bears win Sunday, they are unlikely to be choosing one of the top four quarterbacks in this coming draft. (And I have had several personnel folks tell me that might not be the worst thing for them long-term.) So looking at that next crop of QBs is probably a more apt exercise at this point. Today will be a good opportunity to look at three them, two for the second time in this space.

3:00 PM CT

ACC Championship Game

Clemson vs. Notre Dame

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Trevor Lawrence is going to be the first pick of the draft and stabilize a Jets franchise desperate for stabilization. But ND quarterback Ian Book is going to be an interesting option for teams in the middle rounds. Eric Edholm of Yahoo found an interesting comp for Book:

I texted a Midwest scout who has seen Book’s success as a college QB and watched him grow as an NFL prospect. Who does Book remind the scout of?

Jeff Garcia, he told me. Not the name I was expecting, but it makes sense.

Garcia was far from a roundly beloved prospect coming out of San Jose State in the early ’90s — like Book, branded too small, too hectic, too not NFL. For that time, anyway. And it took him five years of success in the CFL and a visionary in Bill Walsh (who had returned to the 49ers’ front office) to see Garcia’s NFL potential.

Book’s road to the league shouldn’t be quite as circuitous because it appears that he’s only helped his draft stock and could push for a spot in Round 4 — or even higher. It will be fascinating to see which team drafts him, perhaps a club such as the Pittsburgh Steelers that will need to find its eventual starter or one such as the Houston Texans or Kansas City Chiefs, who have their current starter but might want a backup to groom with similar skills to their almost irreplaceable stars in Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes.

Book’s deep-ball effectiveness has improved dramatically from his first few seasons, and even — despite fewer downfield attempts — from a year ago. He still has issues throwing intermediate and deep toward the sidelines but has developed the kind of hip torque and arm strength to get the balls to their targets more readily.

Like with Jalen Hurts a year ago, Book holds onto the ball too long. That won’t fly as readily in the NFL; he has to speed up his clock and not assume his brilliant offensive line and his own athleticism will keep him safe.

Overall, it’s hard not to love and appreciate the strides Book has made as an NFL prospect over the past few years. And with a potential playoff spot looming for the Irish, there are more tests awaiting.

7:00 PM CT

SEC Championship Game

Florida vs. Alabama

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Both quarterbacks in this game – Kyle Trask and Mac Jones – are projecting to be drafted somewhere between pick 15 and pick 50. And it’s safe to every that every NFL eye will be on both tonight.

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Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears…

…and after a few weeks in the darkness of Quitsville, I’m back!

The Stakes

The Bears are 6-7. And this might be the most important game ever played by a 6-7 team.

If the Bears win Sunday, they’ll be 7-7, with Jacksonville on deck. (8-7) That’ll bring the Packers to town, with Tim Boyle likely starting, and a playoff spot likely on the line. If the Bears win Sunday they will be playing meaningful football for 17 weeks at a minimum. That’s how the late Giants owner Wellington Mara defined a successful season. And knew a bit about football.

But winning, especially with another superior offensive effort, would also continue to change the narrative around the head coach. Nobody is firing a head coach who is eight games over (minimum) in his first three years. And if the quarterback pitches another triple-digit quarterback rating? How could the narrative around him not alter slightly as well? Wouldn’t the Bears have to start considering a 2021 prove it deal?

Now if the Bears lose Sunday, their season ends. If they lose Sunday and deliver another lackluster offensive effort against the Vikings, Matt Nagy and Mitch Trubisky go back under the bright interrogative lamps of media and fans. (Hard to imagine Ted Phillips and Ryan Pace won’t be there regardless of these final games.) A loss flips the fourteen-day hourglass and the sand shuffles through on January 4th. That’s when we’ll find out who among the leadership is coming back in 2021.

It’s all at stake Sunday.

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One of the strangest games of this NFL season. A myriad of thoughts.

• Dan Bailey didn’t just miss three field goals and an extra point. He missed the four kicks by a combined hundred yards. This looked like Chuck Knoblauch throwing to first base. Kevin Na not being able to “pull the trigger” at TPC Sawgrass. Mike Zimmer was quoted postgame, “If you guys want me to fire guys for making a mistake here or there, we wouldn’t have any players.” So it seems Bailey will kick again Sunday. And that’s a win for the Bears.
• Bailey’s missed kicks were essential. Five minutes into the second quarter, the Vikings were dominating the game and had almost nothing to show for it. What should have been a 10-0 lead was a 6-0 lead and it took only one perfectly-thrown Tom Brady pass to Scottie Miller to erase that lead.
• There’s no reason to write about Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson. They are the two best players on this team and stopping this offense starts with them. But they’ve added a few wrinkles.
  • Irv Smith Jr. was brilliant versus Tampa. He was actually better than his stats because there wasn’t an easy catch in the four he made. Cousins is clearly looking to him as the safety valve option.
  • Seems Gary Kubiak is starting to move to more two-back sets, with C.J. Ham at fullback. And Ham is becoming a weapon in the passing game from that position.
  • Kirk Cousins had five carries for 41 yards against Tampa. But the Vikings actually called a draw for him on 3rd and short and a few times he didn’t wait for the play to breakdown. He just took off. Cousins ain’t gonna be confused for Lamar Jackson any day soon, but his legs are becoming a significant asset for the Vikings.

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Two weeks ago the Chicago Bears quit, in primetime, against their oldest rivals.

A week ago the Chicago Bears collapsed against the Detroit Lions, squandering a double-digit lead in the final minutes.

These were two of the worst weeks for a Bears head coach since Aaron Kromer turned rat against Jay Cutler and Marc Trestman pathetically refused to fire him. They were two weeks that felt like the end of Matt Nagy’s tenure with the team. The offense was showing signs of life but the defense seemed in freefall. How could the locker room hold up? How on earth would Nagy survive?

And now Houston was coming to town, bringing with them the star quarterback the Bears ignored in the lead-up to the 2017 NFL Draft.  And while revisionist historians now want to paint the Texans as the Washington Generals, take a step back. The Texans were 4-4 under Romeo Crennel. In the last month they had beaten Belichick, crushed Detroit on a short week and fumbled away victory over the Colts on the one. This wasn’t some pushover. The Texans were FAVORED to win Sunday at Soldier Field.

And instead, Matt Nagy’s Bears delivered their most inspired, complete performance of the 2020 season. They buried Houston. For many fans, this is too little, too late. They’ve seen enough and they want Ted Phillips, Ryan Pace, Matt Nagy, the janitorial staff, the lady who runs Bears Care and two curators at the Field Museum fired.

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[Note: The following is an analysis of the last three games played by the Chicago Bears offense. Yes, it is understood that much of the offensive production in Green Bay occurred in “garbage time” but when it comes to this offense, we can’t really leave that production out of the discussion.]

Against the Packers: 363 yards, 25 points, 242 yards passing, 121 yards rushing.

Against the Lions: 407 yards, 30 points, 267 yards passing, 140 yards rushing.

Against the Texans: 436 yards, 36 points, 267 yards passing, 169 yards rushing.

So the averages over this three-game period are 402 yards, 30.3 points, 258.7 yards passing, 143.3 yards rushing.

• Only one team in the league – Kansas City – averages more than 400 yards per game.
• One four teams – KC, Green Bay, Seattle, Tennessee – average more than 30 points per game.
• 258 yards passing per game would land the Bears 13th in the NFL for that category. Many of us argued that if the Bears could be in the top half of the league throwing the football they would be a surefire playoff team.
• 143.3 yards rushing per game would land the Bears 7th in the NFL for that category, and three of the teams they would trail (Baltimore, Arizona, New England) feature a running quarterback as a primary weapon.

Is this production a mirage? Or has Matt Nagy finally pushed the right buttons?