2020/2021

by J. Hughes

A song with no tune

We’ll always remember

No beach bars in June

No race in November

No seat on the aisle

To play the mad foreigner

No billy goat smile

In Wise Guys Corner

The year that was not

Has come to an end

Accepting our lot

We turn ‘round the bend

It’s time for a star

In the dark night sky

A sweet au revoir

To the merde gone by

But what is that sign?

Oh what will it be?

What moment divine

To set our souls free

It could be this Sunday!

It could be this team!

A new world on Monday,

From nightmare to dream.

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears. And…

The Bears’ offense has been SCARY 👀

Offensive Stats – Last 4 Games

• 35.0 PPG
• 396.8 Total YPG
• +55 PT Margin
• 159.0 Rush YPG
• 3-1 Record#DaBears pic.twitter.com/6dakOQrJMs

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) December 30, 2020

Three Things the Bears Must Do To Win

• Pressure Rodgers. Yes, this seems like an obvious point but it’s even more important with the injuries in the secondary. Rodgers is a master at identifying the weakness in the opposing defense and exploiting it until the score is out of hand. Mike Glennon, with a clean pocket, was able to attack Vildor and Shelley successfully. If Jaylon Johnson doesn’t return, what will Rodgers do to them?
• Trubisky Plays to His Non-Packers Norm. No, Trubisky is not a great quarterback. But he’s also not the AWFUL player he has been against the Packers.
  • He completes 63.65% of his passes overall. He’s sub-60% against the Packers.
  • His career passer rating is 87.4. It’s 79 – a massive drop – against the Packers.
  • He’s been sacked 110 times overall. 21 of those sacks have come against the Packers. (Detroit got him 13 times, Minnesota 8.)
• Pound the Ball. 
  • Bucs beat the Packers with 158 yards rushing. Colts beat the Packers with 140 yards rushing. Vikings beat the Packers with 173 yards rushing. Jaguars took the Packers to the wire with 109 yards rushing. The Bears have to know, right now, that anything south of 100 yards rushing won’t get it done against Rodgers and the Packers. This has to be a David Montgomery game.

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The Bears are allowing 22.3 points per game.

The Packers are scoring 31.6 points per game.

Split the difference. 26.95. Let’s round it up for a good time. 27.

That’s the number. Chuck Pagano needs to keep the Packers under that number. Would everyone around the Chicago Bears like to see his defense keep Aaron Rodgers WELL below that number? Of course. But they just haven’t been that kind of unit since returning from the bye. Rodgers, the last time, got to 41. Stafford got to 34. Even Cousins got to 27.

Criticizing a defensive coordinator is always tricky. So many times it devolves into, “We’re not getting enough pressure with our front so why don’t we blitz?” Or even the sillier, “That wide receiver is good, why don’t we cover him?” So many times what looks like bad defensive coordination is actually orchestrated by the quarterback at the line of scrimmage. So often that matchup that leaves a fan scratching their head has been mapped out all week by the opposing offensive coordinator.

The problem with Pagano’s defense is they’ve often looked like a passive group. They don’t dictate the terms of play. They are reactionary. Yes, that’s a product of the modern rules. But it’s also a product of attitude.

Why Are They Struggling?

A lot of that is the result of a pass rush that has failed to live up to expectations.

Khalil Mack has been reliably disruptive but offensive coordinators have been willing to use as many players as necessary to keep him off their quarterbacks. (Several times Sunday the Jags used two OL and a chipping back to keep Mack at bay.) Robert Quinn has played better of late but has had perhaps his most forgettable season. Akiem Hicks has had his least productive (healthy) season as a pass rusher since coming to Chicago.

The Bears pass rush ranks middle of the league in most viable categories: sacks, pressure rate…etc. Middle of the pack is poor when the GM has committed this much money to it. The pockets have been too clean, too often, and that’s left the secondary vulnerable.

A clean pocket for Aaron Rodgers is a death sentence.

What is Sunday?

Which brings us to the bigger point. There’s been much talk around this team that Sunday is a season-defining game. Dan Pompei went so far as to suggest it’s the only game of the 2020 season that matters. But I’ve got some sad news for Bears fans: the Bears aren’t as good as the Packers. And as long as Rodgers is the quarterback up north, that’s likely to be the case. Does that mean the Bears can’t win Sunday? Of course not. Anybody can beat anybody in this league, especially this year.

But if I had an abs off with Brad Pitt, guess what? I’m going to lose. He has intense dietary restrictions, a tireless workout regiment, and an expensive personal trainer ensuring he stays sculpted. When I walk into my local bodega, I don’t even tell them which beer I want. I just give them a number and that’s how many 24 oz. Coors Banquets show up on the counter.

But if Brad and I contest our battle on a different playing field, perhaps the golf course, his abs become a secondary issue.

The Bears can’t make this game about Rodgers’ success. If that’s the playing field, they’ll lose.

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Playoff scenario is clear. If the Bears win Sunday, they are in. If the Rams beat the Cardinals, the Bears are in. Simple as that. Somehow the team that many of us left for dead after an absurd collapse against the Detroit Lions is alive and well and living in January.

Some thoughts on Bears 41, Jaguars 17.

• Yes, Trubisky is going to have several moments in almost every game that leave the world scratching their collective heads. But Mitch’s stat line for the season is now 1,803 yards, 16 TDs, 7 INTs, 95.3 rating. His 2018 stat line was 3,223 yards, 24 TDs, 12 INTs, 95.4 rating. This is what he is as a player and the Bears can win with that.
  • Until yesterday, I had never seen a quarterback attempt a Hail Mary from the 10 yard line. But that’s exactly what Trubisky did. How do you coach this out of a player? Is it even possible?
  • But it’s difficult not to be impressed with his bounce back drive coming out of the half. He had one incomplete pass, was pinpoint accurate and used his legs to get six. His short memory is becoming a real asset.
  • So is his hard count.
• Was Roquan Smith motivated by his Pro Bowl snub? After a slow start from the defense, Roquan delivered his most dominant performance as a Bear. It will never make any sense that this franchise – which hasn’t had a franchise QB in sixty years – consistently churns out Hall of Fame inside linebackers. Oh and hey, I have a crazy idea! Maybe we should wait to choose who makes the Pro Bowl until after the season is actually over? If voting started today, Smith walks onto the Pro Bowl roster.

____________________

That hit on the Roquan Smith interception didn’t look great. Hope he’s OK. pic.twitter.com/S1oHr1Kf4A

— Daniel J Kitchen (@DJKJnr) December 27, 2020

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• The Bears’ identity on offense is quickly becoming clear: they are tough to tackle. David Montgomery. Cole Kmet. Even Darnell Mooney. These guys almost never go down on first contact. This has become a physical group.

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I’ve spent the last month devouring Christmas movies and no passage in any of them speaks to me more directly than this bit from Scrooged. It took me a long time to come around to Christmas and I’m desperately missing many of my traditions. But we find our ways to celebrate. And hope for a more normal 2021.

Merry Christmas. Big game Sunday.

The Clubhouse Bar at TPC Sawgrass.

If you love the game of golf, and you love a few drinks, there is no greater combination of both in the world. And if this were normal times, I would have been there this weekend. Nevertheless…

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears…

…and I think this surge is real. Halas Hall was in a fevered rage after the Lions collapse. The building is ecstatic about what they’ve seen in recent weeks. And they should be.

A Look at the Jaguars

• Jacksonville is one of five teams that score less than 20 points per game and one of four teams that allow more than 30 points per game. (The Jets don’t even achieve this.)
  • After losing to the Browns and Vikings by a combined 5 points, the Jags have been outscored by 57 points over their last two games. With Trevor Lawrence only two weeks from being their next QB, it is hard to see them suddenly mustering a late-season effort and falling out of the top spot in the draft.
• Jags can’t defend the run. They especially can’t defend the run off the edge. This should be another David Montgomery workhorse game, but don’t be surprised if Cordarrelle Patterson, barring health, gets 10+ touches to stretch out these overmatched linebackers.
  • The running game is not all that works on the outside vs. Jax. Against Baltimore, they left throws WIDE OPEN in the flat all afternoon. (I’m not sure I’ve seen something quite like it.) Trubisky doesn’t need to overthink things Sunday. If Montgomery or Mooney or Kmet are standing alone out there, feed them the ball and let them move the chains.
• This team also gets zero pressure on the quarterback. Not to belabor the point, but they are one of the two worst teams in the league for a reason. They don’t do anything particularly well.
• Their offense:
  • It all feeds off first-down success with James Robinson. If Robinson is getting them into manageable second and third downs, they can move the football with the play-action. Without the play-action, their receivers have a hard time getting much separation underneath and their over-the-top passing game is essentially nonexistent.
  • They do test opposing linebackers because Gardner Minshew is very good at recognizing pressure and getting the ball out quickly. He’ll hit Robinson or Dare Ogunbowale on check downs 5-6 times a game and it’ll be up to Trevathan and Roquan to limit the YAC on those attempts.

On the Notion of a “Letdown Game”

If the Bears lose Sunday, it has nothing to do with a letdown. If the Bears lose Sunday, it is because they are not good enough.

They should win. They should win handily. They should be playing a meaningless fourth quarter.

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