Justin Fields should be the starting quarterback Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Not because of anything Andy Dalton did Sunday night. Dalton was Dalton. He dinked. He dunked. He took no chances. He made several mistakes.

No, Justin Fields should start Sunday because the Bears must look at what transpired in Los Angeles and recognize where they are as a franchise. They’re a bad team. They don’t have top-tier weapons on offense. They don’t have a professional secondary. They don’t have an elite coaching staff. The ceiling for this group is mediocre and the more likely outcome is bottom third of the league.

The focus of this organization must shift from the futile endeavor winning games in 2021 to doing everything possible to get Fields ready for 2022. Every day that shift is delayed is wasted time.

Is this difficult for a franchise to do? Yes. Teams delude themselves to sleep each night with visions of the Lombardi Trophy dancing in their brains. But is it necessary for the Bears to do? Absolutely.

Yesterday was the breakdown of what the Bears must do to beat the Rams, a team superior to them at almost every facet of the game. The Bears don’t run it better. The Bears don’t throw it better. The Bears don’t stop the run better. The Bears don’t stop the pass better. The 2020 Bears were better in the return game but their kick returner has left town. It is not difficult, at all, to see why the Bears are opening as more than a touchdown underdog on the road.

But hope is not lost.

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

But they’re testing me right now. And I’m failing.

Big Night For Nagy, Dalton

To paraphrase the great Hyman Roth, “This is the life they’ve chosen.”

By not giving Justin Fields even so much as the opportunity to win the starting job, Nagy has effectively forced the NBC cameras to cut to Fields with every three-and-out, every Dalton blunder, every quarter that goes by with the offense flailing. No, this group shouldn’t be expected to flourish against unquestionably one of the league’s best defenses, but that doesn’t matter.

Because every time Dalton gets sacked, fans will wonder if Fields could have avoided it.

Every time Dalton checks down, fans will wonder if Fields could have extended the play a few seconds with his mobility and made a big gain down the field.

Every time Dalton throws a ball into the fourth row, fans will wonder if Fields could have used that 4.4 speed to race by the sticks and extend the drive.

Matt Nagy and Andy Dalton don’t need to win Sunday night. But they need a tight, clean performance. They need to look like this offense is heading the right direction. Because the eyes of the football world will be upon them.

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We’re finally talking about football. Two teams playing. Someone keeping score. Results that matter.

This season, the Thursday space will be occupied by a simple concept: how the Bears beat their opponent that week. Friday will fill out the game preview, including off-topic stuff and a prediction. But Thursday will be specific to mapping out a potential journey to victory for the boys from Chicago.

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VDM. (Victory Difficulty Meter)

93.6%.

Victory is highly unlikely.

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What Must the Bears Do on Offense:

• Get Cole Kmet involved early. The Bears aren’t going to surprise anyone with what they do offensively. They don’t have the kind of weapons to make surprise feasible and they have a milquetoast quarterback. But they do have something of a secret weapon in Kmet, a talented player underused during his rookie campaign. If Nagy truly believes he can finally run the Andy Reid offense in Chicago, that requires dynamic tight end play, and the Bears are not getting that from anybody else on this roster. It has to be Kmet. And it has to happen quickly Sunday night.
• Pass to run. The Rams were the third best run defense in the league last season. So for all those fans out there who scream RUN THE BALL every week, this ain’t the week to do it. If the Bears run the ball on early downs and get behind the chains, the Rams pass rush will eat their potato leak soup with multiple spoons. Pass early. Get positive yards. The playbook opens far wider on 2nd-and-5 than 3rd-and-11.
• Play the cleanest game possible. If the Bears lose the turnover battle or commit a dozen penalties they have literally 0% chance to win this game. Despite the babble coming out of Halas Hall, this is still a matchup between the league’s best defense in 2020 and one of the worst offenses. The contest was comical last season. The Bears need a significant improvement for the story to change in 2021.

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No reason to bury the lede.

If Justin Fields were the starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears from Week One, I would predict this team to win 9-10 games and make the playoffs. But he’s not the starting quarterback. And that prediction is impossible to make.

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What Would Starting Fields Do?

This team’s offensive line will not be as bad as many predict, but the unit is still one of the most flawed on the roster. They’ll struggle to run the ball against bigger, more physical interiors. They’ll struggle on the edge against speedier rushers. With Dalton, that means no run game. With Dalton, that means sacks.

With Fields, it doesn’t. The optimum word for a player like Fields is extend. He’ll extend drives with that casual six-yard scramble on third-and-four. That’s three more plays; three more opportunities for big plays; ten more minutes of rest for the defense. Fields will also extend plays with his mobility. That’ll keep edge rushers more worried about contain than crash.

Fields at quarterback would see the offense jump 8-10 spots in every statistical category of note. He would still make plenty of mistakes. He would still turn it over a bunch. But a serious production increase would come with those errors.

And the Bears are starting Andy Dalton.

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Last season, DBB nailed the preseason Super Bowl prediction for the first time in our history. The excitement at our headquarters was palpable; the laudits many. The key to the city of Pasadena was an unnecessary thrill.

This season we seek to repeat that historic achievement. Three questions.

(1) What teams have the big-game quarterback?

(2) What teams have the kind of division that will escort them into the top seed?

(3) What teams have a pass rush capable of taking over in January?

NFC.

• Forget the East, though I think Washington‘s defense against that Dallas offense is fascinating when it comes to picking a division winner.
• In the West, I have loved Los Angeles all off-season but are any of the teams in that division getting to 12 wins? (In my gambling life, I’m hard-fading Arizona. I think they’re the worst coached team in the league and that situation feels combustible.)
• I’m really excited to watch the NFC South but I don’t think New Orleans has enough firepower to contain Tampa Bay and the other two don’t have enough defense.
• I couldn’t be less excited to watch the NFC North. It’s going to be a Green Bay runaway. Detroit might be the worst team in the league. Chicago is starting Andy Dalton. Minnesota will inevitably lose half that roster to Covid issues, because their quarterbacks room is Nutjob Central.

Sorry, folks, Green Bay. 

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Movies are subjective. So explaining a list like this seems to be of little use. This is them. These are it.

50. Joe Versus the Volcano

49. Sneakers

48. Planet of the Apes

47. Defending Your Life

46. Marathon Man

45. Monty Python and the Holy Grail

44. Annie Hall

43. Moonstruck

42. Anchorman

41. The Firm

40. A Fish Called Wanda

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There are thousands of fantasy football draft analysts out there and you can consume their content in any form you want. They got draft kits for sales. They have daily podcasts. They all write the same columns: Sleepers! Bold Predictions! Round-by-Round Value Selections! The Fantasy Industrial Complex has grown large enough to make Dwight Eisenhower blush.

My first draft in 18 years is tonight. My league is, let’s just say, unique. There are twelve teams and you are forced to draft the following:

• Two QBs (Start 1)
• Three RBs (Start 2)
• Three WRs (Start 2)
• Two TEs (Start 1)
• Two Kickers (Start 1)
• Two Defenses (Start 1)

You must draft exactly in these slots. No stockpiling at positions. This is a half PPR league but with no flex, the league actually skews more towards the quarterback and tight end than almost any other league out there. So here are some draft strategies I’ve developed over my several weeks of research, focused specifically on this league. Maybe they’ll help you if you’re drafting over the next six days. Maybe they won’t.

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#1 Make a Board, Stay True Early

Rounds one and two of a fantasy draft feel the same to me as rounds one and two of the actual draft. You’re looking for the guys who will carry your team for the duration of the season. For me, that means the following:

• Even if this draft has an early run on QBs, I’m not going there. Do I think Josh Allen is going to have a monstrous season? I do. I think the Bills are going to throw the ball in 2021 as much as any team in NFL history. But the value doesn’t present itself for me until round three, where I can put Allen on a roster with a frontline back and wideout.
• Do I like Darren Waller and George Kittle? Yes. But do I think the gap between those two and, say, Mark Andrews or TJ Hockenson will be wide this season? I do not.
• I can argue for taking Travis Kelce as early as fourth or fifth overall. Other than Kelce, it is best available running back/wide receiver with these two picks.
  • I think Austin Ekeler is going to be Kamara in Joe Lombardi’s offense.
  • Joe Mixon seems like the most undervalued guy in the analysis I’ve read; he’s got that backfield all to himself.
  • DK Metcalf has been available at the backend of most second rounds. If he’s your second pick, you’ve had a brilliant start.
• Dalvin Cook isn’t on my draft board. Maybe he’ll stay healthy but history says he won’t. I’m not taking shots on the chronically-injured until the mid rounds, where the value emerges.

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