Herm Edwards said it best, and for the most part he was right. When you line up to play a football game, the primary objective should be to score more points than the other team. That has certainly been the approach of Matt Nagy, at least offensively, through the early goings of the Justin Fields era at quarterback. The Bears have identified their best approach to winning as play good defense, run the ball consistently, and ask the quarterback to make a play or two at pivotal moments.

But is this the right approach for the Chicago Bears moving forward, especially over the difficult four-game stretch to come? The answer is unequivocally no. And it all comes down to self-evaluation.

Forget the complexity of QBR and DVOA and all the other analytics flooding your Twitter feed. Let’s objectively look at each position group on offense for the Chicago Bears and assign them either a + (plus) or a – (minus). Let’s leave quarterback out. Plus means they’re good. Minus means they’re not. Simple.

[Side note: these evaluations are based on current usage and production. I think Damiere Byrd is a good NFL wide receiver but he’s not being used at all so what can you do?]

• Running backs: +
  • David Montgomery is one of the better backs in the league, Damien Williams is a terrific change of pace option and Khalil Herbert looks every bit an every-down back. (And don’t forget Tarik Cohen is still in the wilderness.) This has turned into as good an RB room as there is in the league.
• Offensive line: –
  • They are a good run-blocking unit but they’re incapable of protecting the quarterback in obvious passing situations. In this modern NFL, that’s a must.
• Tight ends: –
  • Cole Kmet finally flashed in the passing game Sunday. But they have Jimmy Graham making $7M to block once every other week. When you factor in the supposed importance of this position in this offense, it’s something of a disaster.
• Wide Receivers: –
  • Darnell Mooney is going to be a player for years to come. Allen Robinson is ordinary. The rest of the group can be found on practice squads around the league at this production level.

So if you’re Nagy and Bill Lazor, of course you’re going to be run-first, run-always, run-forever. The only two real positives on your offensive roster, around the rookie QB, are the OL’s ability to run block and the backs behind them. But this approach only makes logical sense if the primary objective is to squeeze out as many wins from the 2021 season as possible. And that should no longer be the primary goal. It should never have been the primary goal.

The goal has to be Fields.

They need to get more out of him every week.

They need to ask more of him every week.

Read More …

It wasn’t a particularly unique affair. The Bears have lost this game to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers plenty of times. If you need additional details beyond which is provided below, search the archives and find all the recaps of those games.

• Justin Fields continues to show signs, and that’s all you are asking for each week from a rookie quarterback. The touchdown drive he led in the fourth quarter, that could easily have been derailed by a nonsense holding penalty on Sam Mustipher, was a thing of beauty.
  • The Bears have to open up this offense for Fields moving forward and that should start Sunday against Tampa. The Bucs have a terrible secondary but are impossible to run against.
  • The clock still has to speed up for Fields. Sunday, his “run clock” was there. When he saw the space, he took it. But he’s still struggling to recognize how fast these pass rushers are. He ain’t playing Rutgers anymore. Once he starts to feel it, and it’ll be soon, he’ll stop taking unnecessary sacks.
• The refs were not to blame for this Bears loss. But they were dreadful.
  • Has an offsides ever been missed before? There are officials literally staring down the line of scrimmage pre-snap.
  • The hold on Mustipher and pass interference on Jaylon Johnson were both nonsense.
  • I still don’t understand the OPI on Green Bay, or how that touchdown catch was originally ruled incomplete. Neither were close calls.
  • Why was Justin Fields’ timeout attempt rejected? I have never seen that before.
• Aaron Rodgers was the best player on the field. Again. And it’s not surprising when the best player on the field wins, especially when that player is a quarterback. That’s the goal for the Justin Fields Chicago Bears. They have to get there.

Read More …

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And this young 2021 campaign has been building to the Packers, and Justin Fields, at Soldier Field. If the Bears win, the fan march back into the city will look like this:

(I realize those who drive to Soldier Field have never experienced this walk but it is truly one of the most unique, remarkable things about the experience. Win or lose, it’s always amazing.)

Why Not?

So often, these Packers games can be approached with a sense of resignation. Everything feels like it has to go right for the Bears to beat Aaron Rodgers. Khalil Mack wrecks the game. Lose. Defense holds Rodgers to 10 points. Still lose. It is obvious the Bears will be out-gunned at quarterback when these teams play but too often they have felt outplayed at the 21 other positions, and out-maneuvered on the sideline. Honestly, it hasn’t been a fair fight.

This fight is fair. The Packers are not the Packers. They struggle to run the ball. They are a bit one-trick on the outside, with Davante Adams pulling away from the field when it comes to targets. And injuries to Za’Darius Smith and Jaire Alexander have rendered what was an ascending defense to the realm of gettable. (Kevin King may also be out this week.) They are still the best team in the NFC North, and overwhelming favorites to win this division, but they also could have easily lost to both the Niners and Bengals. What would we be saying about this team if they were 2-3 right now?

Why not now, Bears? Why not roll this two-game winning streak into Soldier Field and beat your oldest rival? Why not ride the crowd energy created by this young quarterback to a franchise-invigorating victory? Why not make the statement that, “Hey, we might not have the weapons or corners of the best teams in the league but we’re coming and coming soon”?

This is likely to be Rodgers’ last game in Soldier Field as the Packers quarterback. Why not make his swan song a dirge?

Stats of the Week

• Hinted at this yesterday but the Bears and Packers are oddly close in a lot of defensive statistical rankings. They are 8th/6th in yards allowed, 12th/10th in passing yards allowed, 14th/16th in opposing passer rating and 12th/11th in rushing yards allowed. The big defensive gaps are sacks (18-10 Bears) and points allowed (20 Bears, 24.4 Packers).
• The Packers blitz on 25.7% of opponent drop backs; the league’s 14th highest rate. The Bears blitz on 15.7%; only three teams blitz less. For a game that will come down to pressuring the quarterback, these numbers seem pertinent.
• First downs.
  • The Bears have 38 first downs on the ground. (8th in the league) The Packers have 25. (23rd in league)
  • The Packers have 67 first downs through the air. (11th in league) The Bears are dead last with 35. They simply have to get more creative in short yardage.

Thoughts on Not Drinking

Years ago I wrote a longform piece about taking time off the drink, titled Diary of a Boozer (Off the Booze). You can visit the link for the post HERE or download the PDF right HERE. For someone who drinks a lot, taking an extended break from it can feel like an earth-shattering experience.

Read More …

Edited. Original photograph by Mike Dinovo, USA TODAY Sports.

The Bears are trying to do something uncommon in the NFL. They are trying to win games while developing a rookie quarterback. That is not to say other franchises who have brought along a rookie QB didn’t want to win each Sunday. (The Jags and Jets are DESPERATE for victories.) But the Bears believe they have a playoff-caliber roster around Justin Fields – due mostly to this roster making the playoffs last season – and have now entrusted the kid to help them get to the tournament.

If the Bears beat the Packers at home on Sunday, their odds to play meaningful football in January will take a massive jump. (And selfishly, I want the Bears playing a playoff game when I celebrate my 40th birthday the weekend of the 15th in Atlantic City.)

_____________________

What Must the Bears Do on Offense:

• This is a difficult stretch coming but if there is a bag of tricks, this is the week to empty it. The Bears have been predictable on early downs and even more predictable in short-yardage situations. That has to change this week. Why?
  • The Packers rank right with the Bears in every meaningful defensive category, with the exception of points per game, where the Bears currently sit 7th and the Packers 19th, a four-point difference. This is a good Green Bay defense but injuries – especially to elite corner Jaire Alexander – leave them more vulnerable.
  • The Bears sit alone in the basement of offensive rankings. They are 20 yards below the next worst team in yards per game, Miami, and 200(!!!!) below the Ravens, who rank first. Their conservative strategy has worked against Jared Goff and Derek Carr. It won’t work against Aaron Rodgers.
  • A win gives them a nice pressure cushion. Beating the Packers, getting to 4-2, and taking first place, would allow them to play their next four (Bucs, Niners, Steelers, Ravens) at 2-2, or even 1-3, and still maintain a level of excitement for this season. 5-5 may not sound like much but 5-5 with a rookie quarterback is reason for serious optimism.
• Take what’s underneath. One of the things Joe Burrow did so well against Green Bay was understand the value of getting five yards on 3rd and 4. Instead of waiting for plays to develop downfield in those situations, he got the ball out quickly and moved the chains. This is still a developing element of Fields’ game and it will hopefully be a major coaching point during the week. (If this is a 6-8 catch game for Damien Williams, the Bears are being productive offensively.)
• On two fourth downs in the second half, the Bengals ran a simple QB draw with Burrow and got the first down both times.  These were both called and they both worked because of the pace of execution. This is a game where Fields can be more deliberate with his runs. If he drops back and it’s there, take it. Avoid unnecessary contact. Slide. But keeping those chains moving, and keeping the defense rested, are essential Sunday. Fields’ legs may be the key to doing both.

_____________________

What Must the Bears Do on Defense:

• Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams have the most symbiotic quarterback/receiver relationship in the league, and that relationship appears telepathic the nearer they get the end zone. This is the week to stick 33 on 17. Let Jaylon Johnson follow Adams around the field and take your chances with Randall Cobb, Robert Tonyan, Aaron Lazard, etc. If Adams beats Johnson consistently, live with that result. There’s no better option on the roster.

Read More …

3rd and 12.

7:26 remaining in the game.

Bears holding a 5-point lead, thanks to Khalil Mack’s brilliant sack of Derek Carr on the earlier two-point conversion attempt.

The Raiders were giving the rookie quarterback anything he wanted short of the sticks. (Though a look at the video below will show, outside of a dump-off option in the flat, the Bears did a nice job of running all their routes beyond the line to gain.)

Fields. Mooney. Complete. First down.

Was the game over when this improbable pass was completed? No.

Did it feel over? It sure did.

Justin Fields fires in a throw to convert on 3rd & 12.

Watch how he uses his eyes to try and help open up a hole in the Raiders Sticks coverage just a bit. pic.twitter.com/27v60rcUwv

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 10, 2021

Think about this throw. Arm strength. Intelligence. Savvy. Confidence.

• It is a twenty-yard bullet between two defenders, each with no more than a few yards between themselves and Mooney. Arm strength.
• The throw is made low to the ground to ensure it’s going to be caught by Mooney and nobody else. (How many times do we see a high throw in this scenario go off the hands of the receiver and into the hands of a floating safety?) Intelligence.
• Nate Tice (above) credits Fields’ eyes with opening up the lane for the pass. (I’ll have to take his word for it. It’s hard to decipher anything from this game due to the horrible camera options.) Savvy.
• The quarterback made the throw. Confidence.

Read More …

The Bears were significant underdogs in Las Vegas. And they won the game by double digits. There is plenty to criticize about this performance. (And you’ll find much of that below.) But one thing can not be stated clearly enough: this was a massive win for the 2021 Chicago Bears and their head coach, Matt Nagy. They now have a chance for a season.

Rapid fire.

• Everything starts with Justin Fields and he was getting annihilated early. And most of it was NOT the result of poor play on the offensive line. The Raiders came into Sunday with the clear directive to hit Fields, whether the play was alive or dead. And Fields almost didn’t survive it.
  • As brutal as the hit was later in the game, don’t think for a moment those early hits didn’t play into Roquan Smith’s mindset when he knocked Derek Carr from the game. That was a teammate having the back of another teammate. You hit my guy up top, I hit yours up top. That’s how football used to be played.
• Fields was good in this game, but the Bears have to let him do more moving forward. At several moments late, Nagy could have told his quarterback, “Make a play here and the it’s over.” He didn’t Sunday. He will have to soon.
  • I would have loved to see a replay of Fields’ touchdown pass to Jesper Horsted from any angle but the one shown on TV. (Apparently the only camera working at the time was on the other side of the field.) It looked like a bold decision, perfectly executed.
  • The Fields-to-Mooney 3rd down toss on what ultimately became the game-sealing drive was an absolute thing of beauty. If Fields can make that throw, in that moment, there’s nothing he can’t do physically out there.
• As for Roquan, what a performance. He broke up a touchdown in the end zone. He stopped Carr on what looked like an easy first down run on a pivotal third down in the first half. And he’s called for two big penalties – a PI and an unnecessary roughness – neither of which were actually penalties. In the modern NFL, teams need to be wary when paying inside linebackers. The Bears should hand him a blank check.
• There’s very little left to say about Khalil Mack. The Raiders tried to hold him early but the refs called it. Then they tried to double, and sometimes triple him. He beat it all. Some days he’s unblockable. Quite frankly, there aren’t enough of those days. But Sunday was one of them.

Read More …

An awful Jets vs. Falcons early morning game in London.

A truly terrible early slate of early afternoon games, unless Packers/Bengals gets you excited.

Then, the Bears.

Enjoy your Sunday.

Why Do Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I always like the Chicago Bears.

And, well, just skip to the next section.

The Justin Fields Game Poem: “Less Than Broken”

Broken,

tired like an old joke, told by a retired cop on an early morning barstool.

A phrase, maybe, then a cough.

The promise of a punchline, then a sip, or two, and a drag from the cigarette that shouldn’t be smoked.

You sit through it because you’re there and that’s what you do.

You might even smile,

that distanced, third person smile.

The absurdity of it all.

__________

Then the delivery changes,

and suddenly the joke seems less than broken,

dispatched with a zeal uncommon to those smoke-filled mornings.

There is conviction in the telling,

connection with the words,

timing in the delivery.

There is hope in the joke now.

Hope.

Vegas, in Movies.

I have never been to Las Vegas. And I will – in all likelihood – never go to Las Vegas. Nothing about it appeals to me. If I want gambling and loud slot machines, I’ll drive to Atlantic City. (And I’ll be celebrating my 40th birthday there in January.) If I want a debauched weekend with “the boys”, I’ll go to New Orleans. (And there’s a casino there too if you need it.) Even tee times at the best golf course in town, Shadow Creek, come with the caveat that you can be bumped any point if a whale wants your time. I mean, seriously, fuck you.

If Rickles and Sinatra were performing there, sure, I’d take the trip. But to go hang out on a cruise ship in the desert with Jay Leno and hookers? Pass.

Here are six scenes from six great Vegas movies. (Well, five are Vegas movies.)

Read More …

The Raiders are 3-1. But they’ve beaten two teams in overtime – including a bad Dolphins side – and the struggling Steelers. When they faced a good Chargers team, they were thoroughly outmatched. And with their next four opponents being the Bears, Broncos, Eagles and Giants, they could easily be 6-2 while not particularly good.

This is not a game the Bears should win. But it is certainly a game they can win.

____________________

VDM. (Victory Difficulty Meter)

71.92%

Half of Chicago is currently in that weird Blackhawks bar at O’Hare, waiting for flights to Vegas. This will feel like a Bears home game and moves the meter a bit lower.

____________________

What Must the Bears Do on Offense:

Stop the rush. That’s it. That’s the story.

The Raiders don’t have a premiere pass rusher, although one could argue Yannick Ngakoue can return to that form at any moment. But Maxx Crosby has had a brilliant first month and he’s well-complemented by Carl Nassib, Darius Philon and even the much-maligned Solomon Thomas. The Raiders have the bodies to exploit this weak Bears offensive line, especially on the edges.

But if that rush is neutralized, the secondary is beatable, mostly due to injury. (Their numbers are actually quite good, while their passing opponents have not been.) And with Justin Fields now the starting quarterback moving forward, expect the Bears to continue stretching the field. There will be mistakes; certainly an unnecessary sack or two; probably an avoidable interception; but the days of the dink and the dunk are behind us.

____________________

What Must the Bears Do on Defense:

Rush. That’s it. That’s the story.

They have to hit Derek Carr and hit him often or he’s going to torch this secondary for 400+ yards. How do we know?

• Per PFF (who provide terrific advanced stats and completely useless grades), these were Carr’s numbers prior to Monday night on passes 20+ yards downfield: 12 completions for 371 yards. Both of those numbers were best in the league. Carr was the AFC Offensive Player of September for a reason. He had a brilliant month.
• What did Joey Bosa say about Carr after Monday night? “We knew once we hit him a few times, he really gets shook. And you saw on (Covington’s) sack, he was pretty much curling into a ball before we even got back there. Great dude, great player…but we know once you get pressure on him, he kind of shuts down.”

If the Bears are going to win this game, Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn have to shut him down. Because they can’t stop Ruggs, Renfrow and Waller on the backend.