Last week my attempts to go 8-8 on point spreads and over/unders failed, as I came in a measly 5-8. (I was 13 seconds from a triumphant 6-8.) This week I smell a 4-4. Do you?

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AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7), Over/Under 54.5

• The Bengals should not have beaten the Raiders. The Bengals would not have beaten the Titans if Ryan Tannehill showed up. This is a different animal, in a different environment. Chiefs win by multiple touchdowns, making the -7 an easy play.
• Not overthinking it. The Chiefs are playing. Over.

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NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5), Over/Under 45.5

• The Rams have had huge leads in their last three games and failed to sufficiently close two of them. Does this team have a killer instinct? They’ll need one against a Niners teams that is finding ways to win every week without the services of a quarterback. Rams play their most complete game of the year and cover the -3.5.
• These teams have played twice. First meeting total was 41, with the Rams only scoring 10. Second meeting, the Rams blew a big lead to the total of 51. Kyle Shanahan has dominated his matchups with Sean McVay, so it’s unlikely the Rams will shut down the Niners offense. That puts both teams in the 20s, and that means I’m slamming the over.

Ryan Poles has selected Matt Eberflus as the next head coach of the Chicago Bears. It was met as quite the surprise inside Halas Hall, where the hiring committee was equally split between the Jim Caldwell (Polian/George) and Dan Quinn (Ted/the rest) candidacies. This was a Poles – and Poles only – hire.

• General point: Eberflus has earned this opportunity. And now he is tasked with building the offensive staff to guide Justin Fields through his career.
  • The early rumor for offensive coordinator is Eagles passing game coordinator Kevin Patulo, who will jump as the chance to coordinate a passing attack for a quarterback that can throw.
  • One must believe Poles made this hire the central topic of the lengthy interview process. There are plenty of solid names to choose from – Darrell Bevell, Jim Caldwell, Mike Kafka, etc. – but it’s unlikely the choice hasn’t already been made.
• Eberflus has experience in a wide variety of defensive systems, ranging from Rob Ryan’s blitz-heavy schemes to Monte Kiffin’s Cover-2. This tidbit on his Wikipedia page is of interest: “In 2013, with Monte Kiffin replacing Rob Ryan as the team’s defensive coordinator in 2013, Eberflus was integral in assisting the team’s transition to a 4-3 scheme, alongside Rod Marinelli. Marinelli said he was impressed with Eberflus the first time he met him in 2013 in Dallas and credited Eberflus with the successful transition from Ryan’s 3-4 defense to the 4-3 (and recently called Eberflus “one of my favorites”).^[7] The linebacker corps did not miss a beat, with Sean Lee logging 123 tackles (95 solo) on the season and a team-high four interceptions, all despite missing five games due to injury. Bruce Carter produced from the weakside linebacker position, tallying 122 tackles, 4.0 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks and three passes defensed.”

Read More …

Matt Eberflus, who will be the Bears' next head coach, was the team's first finalist in their coaching search.

He met with Ryan Poles approximately 24 hours after Poles reached a deal to become GM.

Eberflus' 2nd interview on Wednesday was scheduled before Poles' deal was done.

— Adam Jahns (@adamjahns) January 27, 2022

The @Chiefs have nothing but good things to say about Ryan Poles. 🙌

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) January 26, 2022

Now we wait to see if Ryan Poles hires from the three finalists or expands the head coach search.

Highlights include:

• The process to hire a new GM worked. Details included.
• Why Jim Harbaugh is no longer in play.
• The work done on Ryan Poles once he wowed in the initial interview.
• In defense of Dan Quinn as the prospective next head coach.
• Poor, poor Dan Wiederer.

Bears are finalizing a deal to hire Chiefs’ Assistant Director of Player Personnel Ryan Poles as their next general manager, per league sources.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 25, 2022

Source: With Poles set to meet the Vikings tomorrow, the Bears will not hesitate to try and hire him today.

Atlantic City at 40 (Original Photo)

Last week, the guide was actually about gambling (i.e., trying to make money) and my slips in Atlantic City proved that advice to be solid. This week, I’m going to try and nail all eight general bets. That’s every spread and every over/under. Will I achieve that? Of course not. But it’s a worthy endeavor.

As always, all lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Saturday

4:30 PM ET

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-3.5) – Over/Under 47

• Has a number one seed ever received less attention than Tennessee? They’re the least sexy team remaining but they’re also one that hasn’t been at full strength in months. If Derrick Henry returns – and all signs are pointing to him doing so – I think they move on. But the involvement of the hook (that extra half point) makes me nervous. Still, I’m taking Titans -3.5.
• Usually when I’m playing the number, I play guess the score. I keep settling in around 23-17. Maybe 24-20? 27-17? One of these teams needs a major offensive output to get over. Under 47.

8:15 PM ET

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-6) – Over/Under 47

• Since I picked the Packers to go to the Super Bowl, I’m picking them to win this game. But I think six is a lot of points for a game with projected weather conditions around 0 degrees. Packers win, because it’s not the NFC title game yet, but it’s a close one. 49ers +6.
• Kyle Shanahan is going to want this game slowed down to a crawl. Control the line of scrimmage. Keep it in the 20s. And I don’t think this Packers defense is good enough to prevent that, even with injury concerns at QB for San Francisco. Under 47.

Sunday

3:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) – Over/Under 48.5

• Do we overreact to the Rams victory over the Cardinals Monday night? Anybody paying attention over the last six weeks knows the Cardinals have been awful. Do we overreact to the Bucs embarrassment of the Eagles early Sunday? The Eagles have a quarterback who can’t throw and were ultimately 0-8 against playoff teams this season. Sunday is the biggest game of Matthew Stafford’s career. Stafford is the story. I’m taking Tom Brady. Bucs -3.
• The first time these two played – in September – Brady threw for 432 yards. Stafford threw for 343 yards. That’s nearly 800 yards through the air, folks. This game is going Over 48.5.

6:30 PM ET

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) – Over/Under 54

• When the line is below three points, I ignore it and just pick the winner. And I find it hard to pick against Josh Allen right now. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense thrives when he’s manufacturing pressure but if the Chiefs overcommit, Allen will eat them alive on the ground. The winner of this game feels destined for the Super Bowl. Bills +1.5.
• How do these two offenses stay under the number? Buffalo’s defense is very good, but they’ve been diced up several times this season, especially by any team with a competent rush attack. And Kansas City’s discovery of Jerick McKinnon last week gives them an additional element with which Les Frazier’s unit must deal. Over 54.