So, what is going to happen on Sunday?

• This strikes me as the kind of Caleb game with a gaudy stat line. 29-36, 325 yards, 2-3 touchdowns. The Bears know they have to come out of the box flinging it, and they will.
• The Bears will focus on containing Kyler Murray in the run game and limit him to under 20 yards (and one first down) on the ground.
• Trey McBride, Cardinals TE, is coming off his best game of the season and I think that will continue Sunday. I think the Cardinals will target McBride the way Jacksonville did Evan Engram early; consistent underneath stuff to keep the pressure off Murray.
• After watching how effective De’Von Achane was in the passing game against Arizona last week, I can’t see a scenario where D’Andre Swift is not targeted multiple times in the passing game. I’ll have some serious question for the coaching staff if he’s not.
• Caleb has been sacked 22 times. Kyler has been sacked 11 times. If you’re looking for the most glaring statistical discrepancy between these two clubs, there it is. If the Bears can keep Caleb upright, they’ll win this game, pulling away in the fourth quarter.

Chicago Bears 30, Arizona Cardinals 20

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

Welcome to the Matt Eberflus Game

So, as many of you might have realized, I took a step back from the “insider” stuff when returning to school. That kind of work requires diligence, dedication and most importantly, nerve. You have to be willing to go with information when you trust it, and then sweat it out until it becomes reality (while the rest of Bears media peppers you with texts). The “sweat it out” part was not for me.

But on the drive from DC to Newark Monday, and throughout the day Tuesday, I texted everyone, trying to gauge what the league-wide consensus was on Matt Eberflus. Here is what I gathered in that informal survey.

– Eberflus is an exceptionally well-liked man in the league.

– Said one personnel guy: “Never make decisions after a Hail Mary loss.” (And he’s been through a bad one.)

– Said one scout: “The Ben Johnson/Breer leak was interesting timing. Johnson smells blood in the water.” I had to sit with this text a bit. Is Ben Johnson really thinking about his NEXT job in October, while being the OC of a team that looks like the overwhelming favorite to make the Super Bowl from the NFC?

– Said one former personnel guy, now a TV guy: “These next few games are very important.”

And this last comment is where I’ve landed on Eberflus. I don’t think it particularly matters if he’s the coach in 2025 or not. Do I think they can win with him? Yes. I think he’s becoming an excellent in-game adjuster, which was his primary flaw a year ago. But there’s not enough positive with Flus that I believe he’d be a major loss on the sideline should they replace him, and I don’t think Caleb would be all that flustered by a system change on offense, especially if they move to an offensive head coach.

But if Flus wants to stave off calls for his job, I think he must win these next two games. I’m not saying he’ll be fired either way, but the calls for his job will persist all season long if he’s not 6-3.

Three Thoughts on the Cardinals

• What is Arizona? Who knows? They are technically in first place (three-way tie) with a point differential of -27. They seem like an entirely different team every week I watch them.
• The Bears have a distinct advantage seeing Kyle Murray the week after Jayden Daniels, as Murray’s legs are the most threatening thing about the Cardinal offense. If the Bears contain Murray, they’ll contain Arizona.
• By every metric – especially pressures, sacks and opposing passer rating – this is one of the worst pass defenses in the league. (Washington was not, by the way, and I tried to tell people that in las week’s preview.)

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The Bears are 4-3, and in last place in the NFC North.

The Arizona Cardinals are 4-4, and in first place in the NFC West.

The NFC is the wild, wild west, so it makes poetic sense that a contest to define the Bears’ season will take place just about 195 miles from the O.K. Corral.

The Hail Maryland is over. It’s in the past. So is the dismal effort the Bears delivered for three quarters of their loss in Landover, a stadium that provides perhaps the worst sports viewing atmosphere outside of the swamp in New Jersey. (I have chosen not to write about my time in Northwest Stadium. Nobody wants to read that.) When I analyzed this three-game stretch coming out of the bye, it seemed imperative for the Bears to go 2-1, splitting their road games and beating the Patriots at home. That is still on the table. If the Bears can finish this stretch at 6-3, tournament relevance in January is still very much on the table. If they are 5-4, those questions become more difficult to answer.

Thus, it is not difficult to position Sunday’s game in Arizona as the most important the Bears have played thus far in 2024. How they start, especially after Washington, will be scrutinized. The offensive and defensive game-planning going in, especially after Washington, will be scrutinized. How Matt Eberflus manages the game, especially after Washington, will be scrutinized. Every major contributor, especially those with big contracts like DJ Moore and Montez Sweat, will be scrutinized. Tyrique Stevenson will be…very scrutinized.

And that’s what makes Sunday fun. The leaves are changing. The air is chilling. The calendar will have flipped from October to November. New York City will be celebrating the NYC Marathon, its best day of the year. All the talk of meaningless preseason games and hitless camp practices ends. The Bears have a football game they must win if they have designs on more than just scoreboard watching a seven seed after Christmas. Everything will be magnified.

Can the 2024 version of this club hold up under that scrutiny?

They want me angry.

Filled with the same rage as them.

But it’s just football.

As I stood in Northwest Stadium, coming to the realization that the Bears had allowed an unthinkable Hail Maryland and lost a game they had no business winning in the first place, I wasn’t angry. Was I disappointed? Of course. I don’t think I need to use this space to present my credentials as a Bears fan. That resume has been thoroughly vetted. I wasn’t angry because football doesn’t make me angry anymore. And quite frankly, if it’s capable of making you angry, you shouldn’t watch it.

I’m 42 years old. I got a theater company with a thriving education program. I got a new play and musical I think are going to be really interesting when we get them on stage. I have a great relationship, amazing friends, two cool cats, an incredible community and yes, this website, which has endured since 2005 and given me more than I could have ever imagined. Oh, and I am also pursuing a PhD that is about as rigorous as one could imagine, swallowing up every available minute of my time. I don’t share all of this to brag about my life. (Although it is pretty good, aside from a wonky back the last month.) I share all of this to say that IS my life. Those things are me. If I’m going to get angry it’s going to be in support of those endeavors and for those people.

The Bears aren’t me. And quite frankly, I’m thrilled about that.

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Game they had no business winning became a game they had no business losing. Push. On to Arizona.

— DaBearsBlog (@dabearsblog) October 28, 2024

Is Jayden playing?

Braggs says game time decision.

Bears win, either way.

Chicago Bears 27, Washington Commanders 23

Why do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

The Injury Bummer

If Jayden Daniels doesn’t play Sunday, and the oddsmakers seem to believe he won’t, it is a massive bummer for the entirety of the NFL. The Washington Commanders (nee Redskins) and Chicago Bears are two of the proudest franchises in the sport, and the league is better when both are winning. Roger Goodell and the boys were going to use this game to promote and celebrate two players – Daniels and Caleb Williams – they expect to be the face of the league for the next decade. And there was a strong chance Bears at Commanders, kicking off at 4:25 PM ET, would be the highest rated day game all season.

Now, who knows? The game is still important. The rating will still be solid. But if Daniels doesn’t play, it loses half of its luster, half of its star power. And personally, I was excited to see both of them in-person, on the same field, and paid a hefty price for that honor. Marcus Mariota’s name on the marquee doesn’t create lines at the box office.

Three Thoughts on the Commanders

• What has been sneaky about the Commander resurgence is not the offense; that has been well covered in the national media. But the Commanders are 15th in points allowed per game, and 16th in yards allowed per game. That might not seem impressive, but this was arguably the worst defense in the league in 2023. Advancing to the middle of the pack is a huge leap in one season, and a testament to the coaching work of Dan Quinn. This is not a good defense. But it’s not a bad one, either.
• If Daniels does not play Sunday, expect the Commanders to rely heavily on the underrated Brian Robinson. Robinson is rushing to 4.7 YPC, and has 6 touchdowns, but has only been given 20+ carries once this season. That’s likely to change Sunday.
• Where has Washington been far better than Chicago? Offensively, on third down. The Commanders convert at a rate of 48.8%, ranking them third in the league. The Bears are much further down the table, converting 35.4% of their opportunities. Could be a game-within-the-game to pay attention to on Sunday.

Lumet VII: Lumet and the Police

Football is taking center stage so I will bypass Lumet VI, which was to focus on his collaborations with Sean Connery and general work abroad. Four films should not be ignored, however, in this regard. The Hill (1965) is a brilliant moral tale, reflective of Lumet’s own conflicted time in the service. The Anderson Tapes (1971) is Lumet’s minor-yet-noteworthy entry into the paranoia cinema of the 1970s. The Offence (1973) is a complicated revelation, especially for Ian Bannen’s brilliant turn as the potential killer. And Murder on the Orient Express (1974) is a cinematic tour de force, another breathtaking example of Lumet’s genius for shooting in the confined space.

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Audibles used to be reserved for just links involving the Chicago Bears, but today we’ll branch out beyond the Bears, to the entire league.

• After two games, fans wanted Shane Waldron fires and D’Andre Swift stoned to death. The great Adam Jahns gave the Bears OC proper credit for his excellent work through six games. Kevin Fishbain adds his praise for the running back. I’ve been arguing for years that the first month of the NFL season is no longer relevant when it comes to team form. There is no preseason, and camp is a joke. September is simply about figuring out what your club is and stacking wins.
• Brad Biggs does a nice job contextualizing the Chicago Bears as they come out of their bye week. There are three major tests approaching: continuing Caleb’s growth, beating the weaker teams, and holding their own against the best division in football by a wide margin.
• Mary Kay Cabot on a potential Myles Garrett trade: “Of course, a team can never say never when it comes to trades, and they’d probably at least answer the phone. But unless someone makes them a blockbuster offer that they can’t refuse, it’s not in the cards to part with one of the premier players in the history of the club.”
• Fun interview on Da Site, with Rome Odunze revealing to Lauren Screeden how he got his name.
• Kevin Warren continues to argue for a new stadium on the lakefront, and taxpayer funding will be on the ballot this November. Any citizen endorsing taxpayer money for a sports facility has lost the plot entirely. Every NFL franchise is worth (at minimum) $4 billion, and yet every time a new building is “required” these billionaires walk into the public square, palms facing the sky.

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