David Manica will be the man most responsible for the Bears new stadium in Arlington Heights. This interview gives tremendous insight into how he’ll approach the project.

The #Bills will match the RFA offer sheet for OT Ryan Bates, per GM Brandon Beane. It’s a 4-year deal for Bates.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 28, 2022

I’m posting these to DBB because over the course of the season, I find myself constantly searching out data like this. Figure it’s easier to store right here on the site. 

NFC NORTH

Packers -175

Vikings +275

Bears +750

Lions +1200

Thought: Green Bay actually feels a bit undervalued at that number. Barring a Rodgers injury, they are winning the division.

NFC EAST

Cowboys -115

Eagles +350

Commanders +400

Giants +650

Thought: The Giants have near identical odds to win their division as the Raiders do to win theirs. Just shows you how awful this division looks to be on paper. If the Cowboys weren’t such a national entity, they’d have plus odds.

NFC SOUTH

Bucs -280

Saints +450

Falcons +1000

Panthers +1100

Thought: What is there to say? On paper, this is the greatest divisional mismatch in the sport. It is Tom Brady vs. three teams that struck out on Deshaun Watson.

NFC WEST

Rams +160

Niners +195

Cardinals +325

Seahawks +1300

Thought: San Francisco is the team I’m most wary of at this stage because Trey Lance absolutely disappeared in 2021. (They had packages for him early in the year.) Is he going to be ready to be the starting quarterback in 2022? Has the bridge been burned with Jimmy G? Too many questions for odds like that.

AFC NORTH

Browns +175

Bengals +200

Ravens +225

Steelers +850

Thought: Deshaun. Watson. 

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.@reba ❤️@NSYNC 🎤
& the longest 🍦 name I’ve ever heard…

I promise you don’t want to miss this 👇🏼 https://t.co/7vxFY2ngoI

— Lauren Screeden (@lscreeden) March 24, 2022

The odds above are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Green Bay Packers

• The story of the Green Bay off-season is Aaron Rodgers. The second he decided to return to the club, he cemented their frontrunner status for not only the NFC North but for the NFC, generally. (They run side-by-side with Brady’s Bucs.) Barring injury to the signal caller, the Packers will be in the 2022 postseason.
• Has any draft pick caused more organizational turmoil than the Jordan Love pick? Sure, it alienated one of the greatest (and emotionally fragile) quarterbacks in the history of the sport. But also, the kid clearly can’t play. If he could, the Packers wouldn’t be doing advanced calisthenics to contort around Rodgers’ emotions. If the team viewed Love as capable, they could have dealt Rodgers for multiple first-round picks, replenishing Love’s supporting cast, and likely still maintaining their contender status.
  • Stacey Dales and I had a rather contentious Twitter exchange when the Packers took Love. She “reported” Rodgers was fully onboard with the selection. But of course, he wasn’t. People like Rodgers – and I’m sure you know a few – harbor everything. They stew with every perceived slight. They don’t use it for motivation; they use to be upset. Still awaiting the formal apology from Dales.
• Rodgers has a history of making the weapons around him better but that’ll be put to the test in 2022. The Packers will likely address wide receiver in the draft but until they do, this is the weakest collection of outside targets they’ve rostered in quite some time, with Allen Lazard as their top current option for next season.
• And don’t count me among those criticizing Green Bay for dealing Davante Adams. They got a first and second-round pick and now don’t have to pay him $30M a season. There is no reason to believe Adams will replicate his Rodgers production with Derek Carr. Rodgers aggressively fed Adams, with the most accurate arm in the league.
• Green Bay’s defense was solid in all the standard categories and mediocre in the advanced metrics like DVOA. But their special teams sabotaged them in 2021. Pat O’Donnell is not a game changer. Rich Bisaccia, while a great leader, is not a game changer. The Packers need to strengthen the bottom of their roster – the core of specials – and that will need to happen over the closing days of free agency/draft season.

Minnesota Vikings

• Kirk Cousins is still the quarterback. Thus, the team has a definitive ceiling. But we should all marvel at what he’s achieved in the sport. Warren Sharp put it in one Tweet: “Kirk Cousins has a 59-59-2 record as an NFL quarterback, performs slightly above average, and has made $231,669,486 in his career.”
• Minnesota has a new head coach but as long as they stay committed to Kirk, they are in win now mode. This became even more clear when the Vikings were unable to trade Danielle Hunter prior to his $18M bonus becoming guaranteed on Sunday. (This is why Ryan Poles traded Khalil Mack THIS off-season. When you’re trying to retool a roster, you have to clear payroll when it’s possible. There’s no guarantee that Mack would have had the same value a year from now and Poles couldn’t take that chance.)
• The off-season approach taken by the Vikings is receiving harsh, and I believe appropriate, criticism from their media.
  • From Ben Goessling: “This week, the Vikings opted not to follow through on the considerations they’d had, however briefly, about a hard reset, instead making moves to keep veterans on their roster while clearing enough cap space to sign several free agents and perhaps satisfy the Wilf family’s stated expectation the Vikings be “super-competitive” 8in 2022.”
  • From Chip Scoggins: “The team’s salary cap quagmire has created dueling agendas that make ownership’s win-now objective a tug-of-war with reality.”
  • From Mark Craig: “The Packers are the team to beat in 2022. The Bears and Lions are eyeballing 2023. And your new Vikings regime has stuck itself somewhere in between as a team still giving full chase to the distant Packers in 2022 while staring down the probability of falling short and finding itself a year behind the rebuilds in Chicago and Detroit in 2023.”

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(1) Does Ryan Poles want to spend big money for a premier tackle? Terron Armstead will be 31 this season but has had trouble playing a complete season. His price will be north of $20 million per season. When he is healthy, he is worth every nickel. But does Poles want to absorb that risk financially?

(2) Where do Poles and this coaching staff expect Teven Jenkins to play in 2022? Do they want him at left tackle for another season? Do they want to move him to the right side? Jenkins is going to be one of the five starting linemen, but we honestly don’t know what position he’ll be playing. (My guess is they haven’t reached that conclusion yet and may not until they see how the rest of free agency and the draft shake out.)

(3) Can Ian Cunningham coerce Ryan Bates to Chicago? Bates is 25 and the folks in Buffalo absolutely adore him. But the Bills are cash-strapped and would unlikely be able to match a generous offer sheet. Minnesota is interested. New England is interested. But the Bears have Cunningham, the man responsible for bringing Bates to Philadelphia as an undrafted free agent. Is that relationship strong enough to make a difference now? (Bates can play anywhere on the line.)

(4) Two things I was told about the offensive line when Ryan Poles was hired were: (a) James Daniels was not going to be re-signed and (b) the opinion of Larry Borom was not particularly high. But this was before Poles and Flus engaged a thorough evaluation of the entire roster. Has that opinion changed at all? Do they view Borom as a potential starter? Versatile backup? Anything?

A few thoughts on this decision by Poles and Flus:

• Houston-Carson has always seemed a player that deserves more snaps on defense, and a natural complement to Eddie Jackson’s game at safety. He’s a playmaker; what he might lack physically down-for-down he can overcome by rising in the bigger moments. (The pick above, the pick to ice a victory over the Panthers, etc.)
• Chris Tabor referred to DHC as the “straw that stirs the drink” on specials and I’m not sure a more glowing review can come from a third phase coordinator.
• The Browns gave Jakeem Grant a three-year deal worth up to $13.8 million. The Packers needed to clean up their horrific special teams and brought in Pat O’Donnell at $2 million a year. Those are the kinds of moves that make sense for contenders – teams looking to patch their few holes for a championship run. The Bears can fill those two spots with Khalil Herbert and an undrafted free agent (or late pick). The signing of DHC suggests the Bears see him as an essential piece.
• There’s been some conversation about the Bears being in a “rebuild” but there’s an absent nuance to that conversation. In baseball, a team can definitively rebuild by dealing off veterans for prospects. But football doesn’t have prospects; it has lottery tickets called draft picks. The Bears didn’t deal Khalil Mack for the second-round pick. They dealt Khalil Mack to clear $25 million (or whatever) off their books next off-season. Everything Poles is doing is geared towards next off-season. Would he love for Pringle, St. Brown and DHC to become reliable contributors? Of course. But signing them to low-risk, one-year deals gives the coaching staff a year to evaluate them up close, while giving them full roster flexibility next off-season. When folks talk of rebuilds, they seem to suggest multi-year projects. Those don’t exist in the NFL. If Justin Fields takes a significant step in 2022, the Bears can absolutely be contenders in 2023. And Poles, wisely, recognizes that.

Free agency is underway, and somewhat underwhelming. But there are still things to discuss.

• I’ll never understand the sentiment that Darnell Mooney can’t be a number one receiver in the NFL. In his rookie season, with a good Allen Robinson on the other side, he went 61-631-4. In his second season, with a terrible Allen Robinson on the other side, he saw those number leap to 81-1055-4, while developing a serious rapport with Justin Fields. Why do fans believe his ascension won’t continue?
  • Cooper Kupp’s second year: 40-566. His third year: 94-1161.
  • It took Stefon Diggs four seasons to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark.
  • Take a look at the progression of Davante Adams’ career in Green Bay.
• This is not to suggest that Mooney profiles as a Justin Jefferson or J’Marr Chase – players with the tools to physically take over every game they play. But there are only a handful of those in the world. If Fields continues to feed Mooney, Mooney is going to produce at top of the league levels. And production, not profile, is what constitutes being a number one receiver in the NFL.
• Pat O’Donnell has left the Bears for the Packers. This should provide you the opportunity to familiarize yourself with the legendary leg of Matt Araiza at San Diego State. (This is a deep punter class.)

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Patrick the Kick Returner?

Morrow, if Healthy, a Steal?