Five Things I Think Will Happen:

• Robert Quinn only has one sack this season but Sunday, against Houston, he was close to a breakout performance. The breakout comes in the Meadowlands with 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble.
• The Giants will rush for 128 yards and a touchdown. Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka are coaching their quarterback in a similar fashion to what is happening in Chicago. The trust isn’t there. They throw when necessary.
• The Bears will rush for 157 yards and two touchdowns. Statistically, through three games, this is a mismatch the Bears should exploit.
• Giants DC Wink Martindale will confuse Justin Fields, leading to 3-4 sacks on third and long. Wink will disguise coverages. He’ll bring pressure from unlikely sources. If Fields isn’t ready and willing to get rid of the football quickly, it’ll be another long afternoon for the quarterback. (And what evidence do we have that he’ll be ready and willing to do that?)
• The stat that defines the game: tight end production in the passing attack.
  • Daniel Jones is starting to trust Daniel Bellinger and the Bears didn’t have any answers for the Houston tight ends.
  • Cole Kmet was open all day Sunday and the Giants allowed 5-56 to Dallas tight ends Monday night.
  • Neither of these teams offer much at wide receiver.

Both of these teams play slow, ugly football games. And that’s exactly what we’ll see in NJ.

Chicago Bears 23, New Jersey Giants 20

They are coming off one of the least rewarding wins in recent memory. So…

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

Video of the Week

The Passer Rating Problem

If you were to list the six men playing quarterback at the highest level through three games, who would you list? Jalen Hurts. Tua. Josh Allen. Lamar Jackson. Mahomes. Probably Trevor Lawrence?

Well, those six men currently lead the NFL in passer rating. Passer rating is not a flawless stat by any means. Quarterbacks should not be penalized for throwing the football away or for interceptions off the hands of their receivers. And quarterbacks should be rewarded statistically for avoiding negative plays and extending drives with their legs. But nevertheless, the passer rating stat is still our finest tool for measuring consistency at the position. All six of those players have a rating north of 100, and you don’t fluke your way into that number.

Justin Fields’ passer rating is 50. That ranks him 33rd in the league. And yes, there are only 32 starting quarterbacks.

The gap between Fields and Mac Jones in 31st (Trey Lance is 32nd) is 26.2 points.

That’s the gap between Jones and the top six, with Lawrence at 103.1.

This means that, according to the passer rating statistic, Fields is as far being the 31st ranked quarterback as Jones – who has been terrible – is from being a borderline Pro Bowler.

The Giants, who have a terrible secondary, have played three quarterbacks. Their passer ratings against:

• Ryan Tannehill: 106.4
• Baker Mayfield: 74.6
• Cooper Rush: 98.2

Fields needs a clean game. No turnovers. High completion percentage. A few big plays. Nobody should be asking for (or looking for) more than that at this stage. If Fields can pitch to a QB rating around 90, there will at least be SOME reason for optimism moving forward in 2022.

Read More …

Thinking about 2022 as a developmental season means thinking about what the primary roster needs will be heading into 2023. And just three weeks into the season, those needs are becoming clear on the defensive side of the football.

First things first. The Bears should not even consider letting Roquan Smith play elsewhere next season. Does that mean signing him to a $100 million contract? Not necessarily. While a happy Roquan is the best possible outcome for both sides, it was obvious Sunday that Roquan is more than capable of delivering a professional (and brilliant) performance even without the (somewhat absurd) guaranteed money he seeks. The franchise tag is awful for players, but it exists, and the Bears should not hesitate to use it on one of the best defensive players in the league. Unless another team approaches with a knockout trade offer Roquan should be wearing #58 in Chicago next year.

Second is the secondary, which looks solid at the very back and sketchy everywhere else. At corner, there are too many questions. Can Jaylon Johnson stay healthy for a season? Kindle Vildor has shown an ability to make plays, but can he display the consistency required to be a starting NFL corner? Kyler Gordon is a rookie, and rookies struggle, but some of Gordon’s struggles are, let’s just call them…eye-popping. Yet there are still plenty of moments that show why Gordon was selected in the second round, including several in the second half Sunday. Can he overcome the former and produce more of the latter? Corner is a position where you can’t have too much talent and the Bears need to add several quality bodies.

Last, and the opposite of least, is the defensive front. There is some talent on this line, but it’s hard not to notice two alarming trends.

• For as good as the Bears have been running the ball, they have been equally bad defending the run. They’re getting pushed off the ball and it’s now very clear why their first free agent target was Larry Ogunjobi. They lack heft in the middle of the line.
• The Bears are struggling to get off the field on third downs, primarily because their pass rush disappears in those spots. (Robert Quinn seems like he’s been a few feet from about ten sacks.) There is no such thing as a great defense absent a great pass rush. The quickest route to a great pass rush is finding yourself a great pass rusher. It will likely be their second biggest need this offseason.

Through three games, the Bears are firmly a mid-table defense, which should give fans confidence in what Matt Eberflus and defensive coordinator Alan Williams are building in Chicago. They don’t have top of the league defensive talent. But they might only be three or four players away from being among the game’s best.

No reason to write an article about this. The first 45 minutes of this appearance are a pretty clear rant on the subject of Justin Fields.

For nine years he stood,

Stoically on the sideline.

Today, he returns.

Five Things I Think Will Happen Sunday:

• Justin Fields will rebound, to a degree. The Bears will get the run game going early, opening up play action, and leading to a stat line around 17-26, 246 yards, 1 TD throwing, 1 TD running. It will be enough to quiet down the noise surrounding the quarterback for at least another week.
• Darnell Mooney will finally kick off his 2022 campaign. Luke Getsy hears the criticism and knows he needs to get his top receiver involved. Seven catches, 104 yards and a touchdown.
• Dameon Pierce will have his breakout game for the Texans. After a 15 carry, 69-yard output against Denver, this shapes up for a 20+ carry, 100+ yard performance, especially with the Bears concerned about protecting both one starting outside corner and their rookie slot guy.
• Eddie Jackson will get his second interception of the season. One thing that stands out watching Davis Mills is the number of contested balls he throws over the middle of the field. Jackson snags one.
• The team that wins the sack battle wins the game. And the Bears win that battle, 4-2.

Chicago Bears 24, Houston Texans 13

He has a beard now. A glorious, white beard. It terrifies young babies. So…

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

Lovie vs. Opposing Quarterbacks

In the first two weeks of the season, Lovie’s defense has faced Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson, both times as substantial underdogs. Their passer ratings?

Ryan: 83.1

Wilson: 66.5

That ranks the Texans seventh in the league in opposer passer rating, a pretty decent stat when evaluating a pass defense. For those thinking this is a “get healthy” week for Justin Fields, that just isn’t the case.

But Houston is allowing 163.5 on the ground so don’t be surprised if the game plan for the Bears in Week 3 is relatively similar to what we’ve seen so far in September.

Knowing Lovie, expect the Texans to sell out to stop the run and dare Fields to sit in the pocket and beat them. If Fields has a good afternoon, the Bears could have a big offensive output.

Other Early Stats that Could Matter

• Lovie’s teams always get off the bus running the ball but through two games the Bears have actually run it substantially more, to the tune of 64-46 total carries. (Fields runs a lot. Davis Mills runs less.) Bears are also averaging a yard more per carry.
• Keep an eye on third down defense. Texans are allowing conversions on exactly a 33.3% of attempts. The Bears are allowing conversions on 50%. Small sample size, sure, but those numbers projected out are devastating for the Bears.
• Both the Bears (28.6% conversion) and the Texans (25% conversion) are in the bottom six in the league in third down offense.
• Underrated stat: total plays per game. Houston is averaging 63.5 (T-15) and the Bears are averaging 48.5 (31). If the Bears want to improve their offensive performance, it would be helpful to run some offensive plays.

Additional Notes (Links) from the Houston Press

• Center Justin Britt is missing from the Texans for “personal reasons” and Lovie is not sure when or if he’ll return to the club. Tuesday the team put him on the non-football injury list.
• After a nice rookie campaign, Mills and the passing attack for Houston are becoming an issue. The Chronicle’s Brooks Kubena has a full breakdown of the issues.
• Brandin Cooks has sneakily been one of the best wide receivers of this generation and Sunday he went over the 8,000-yard mark for his career. From the piece on the Texans site: “Only nine other pass-catchers in league history have cracked the 8,000-yard mark before the age of 29.” 

Read More …

Again, Tuesdays are a good spot in the week to assess the development of young players on this young roster and a few concerning trends have begun to emerge.

Darnell Mooney/Cole Kmet

Where are they?

That’s serious question worth asking after two games.

Where are they?

There was no scenario wherein the Bears could be a productive offense in 2022 without serious production from Mooney and Kmet and, through two games, they have been utterly invisible. How much of that do they own? How much of that is on the quarterback? How much of that is on two difficult defensive opponents?

Whatever the reasoning, it has to stop. The next two games – home to Houston and at the Giants – need to be games where these two players are fed the football. Scheme them open if necessary. The Bears need to find out just how many weapons they need to acquire this off-season.

Roquan Smith

In the winter, Aaron Judge played hardball with the New York Yankees. He wanted a zillion dollars over a zillion years. The Yankees only wanted to give him 3/4 of a zillion over slightly less than a zillion years. Nobody budged. No deal. And now Judge is having the greatest contract year in the history of professional sports.

Roquan Smith is off to the opposite campaign. He is getting blown off the ball repeatedly, including by backs and receivers. He looks slow in coverage, normally a major strength. And the tenacity that has come to define his game is absent. Roquan is 25 years old and should be a long-term answer on this defense. But playing at this level, it’s becoming more and more likely he is elsewhere in 2023.

Imagine the criticism that would befall Ryan Poles were Smith to be playing at this level after being given $100 million.

Larry Borom

With a nod to Dave Wasserman, I believe I’ve seen enough. Borom is not a starting offensive tackle.

Teven Jenkins looks good inside. Braxton Jones is holding his own at left tackle. But Borom is a severe liability on the right side and the Bears need to start thinking about an upfront construction that doesn’t land him in the starting five. (This might take Alex Leatherwood’s return from mono.)

This shouldn’t be read as a striking criticism, either. Borom was a late-round pick and is a perfectly capable swing tackle. He is a roster asset. But in a league where the athleticism on the defensive edge seems to increase tenfold yearly (have you seen Micah Parsons play?), Borom simply can’t handle the role four quarters a week for 17 weeks plus.

There is still a contingent of Bears fans who believe everything the team does should be exclusively geared towards Justin Fields and his development, even though the off-season clearly showed that is not how this leadership will conduct business.

I get it, to a point.

(1/9)

— DaBearsBlog (@dabearsblog) September 19, 2022

8:00 PM ET

Thoughts on a day of watching football and researching Hitchcock’s silent stage adaptations.

• There was some brutal football played in the early window. Saints/Bucs and Giants/Panthers were bad, bad ballgames.
• I know it seems I have a personal issue with Chris Ballard. And that’s only because I do. But Ballard’s answers at quarterback for a supposedly ready-to-contend roster have been a shot Phil Rivers, a never good Carson Wentz and an elderly Matt Ryan (who looked incredibly shot today). Ballard has been the GM of the Colts for six off-seasons. Is he going to take a risk at quarterback at ANY point?
• I never hated Mitch Trubisky, but I recognized his extreme limitations against the Saints in 2019. It’s not there. Pittsburgh can delay the inevitable all they want but not playing Kenny Pickett is wasting time. Trubisky is a solid backup option.
• Every time Tua attempts to throw a pass more than 10 yards it’s an adventure. But there is so much speed in that receiving room. He won’t need to be that accurate deep when Hill is averaging four yards of separation.
• So many helmet-to-helmet hits across the league. Spare me the “speed of the game” argument. If you can’t see the guy you’re tackling, you are tackling incorrectly.
• New Orleans did everything a team needs to do defensively against a Tom Brady offense, but they just kept handing him first downs with silly penalties. Ultimately, Brady made them pay for their “mistakes”.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the best receivers in the league. Games like today aren’t stories anymore. This is who he is.
• Through two weeks, the Bengals look like a bad team. Somehow their offensive line is worse than a year ago. But they have now lost to Trubisky and Cooper Rush to start the season. That’s not a contender.
• Micah Parsons might be the best player in the league. He controls games.
• Not sure I can remember a rookie head coach looking as out of his depth as Nathaniel Hackett. The Broncos need to monitor that closely and pull the trigger quickly if these performances continue.
• The Cardinals are not in a good spot as an organization. Kliff got ownership to fully commit to Kyler. If you fire Kliff, the next coach has to want Kyler. How much coaches do?
  • If Kyle didn’t convert on the two-point conversion to end regulation, I’m not sure Kliff wouldn’t have been fired by the time you’re reading this. A delay of game…on a two point…with the game on the line???
  • But you rarely see a team as desperate to lose as Vegas was tonight.

8:16 PM ET

“I’ve been waiting all day for Sunday night” is one of the most ridiculous football concepts around. Other than the fans of the two teams, nobody waits all day for Sunday Night Football. If anything, most NFL fans are exhausted by kickoff. (People forget this slot used to be occupied by a throwaway game for years.)

8:18 PM ET

“The most played rivalry in the history of the National Football League.”

Is that a compliment?

8:24 PM ET

KICKOFF!

TOUCHBACK!

8:26 PM ET

I would like to preemptively apologize for tonight’s minute-by-minute. I am pretty damn tired and I’m old now and these games feel super late to me. I shall do my best and try to land a few barbs.

8:27 PM ET

Aaron Rodgers looks like Aaron Rodgers.

8:32 PM ET

Angelo Blackson makes a great play in the backfield and then stands over the back. He luckily avoided an unsportsmanlike penalty for taunting. That is being called all over the league. Needs to be coached into these guys pronto.

8:36 PM ET

Kyler Gordon makes a brilliant play on the football, and Trevis Gipson follows that with a sack. That is the kind of sequence fans need to see this year. Young players developing is the primary story of this campaign. Some very good signs through one game and one drive.

Read More …