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Secondary Rebuilt, Weapons Lacking: Assessing the 2022 NFL Draft in the Context of 2023

| May 1st, 2022

The texts buzzed my nightstand unprompted, piercing through the endless, awkward chuckling of Robert Mays and Nate Tice, as I tried to force myself to sleep on Friday evening. (I decided to take a brief, week-long booze sabbatical and it makes slumber a tricky enterprise.) The scout who I have relied upon this week to fill me in on all things draft was giving his assessment of Ryan Poles’ work over rounds two and three.



This is not someone who has any reason to inflate the work of the GM of the Chicago Bears. He has zero stake in the game. This was a professional talent evaluator evaluating the talent selected; examining the players acquired in a draft he has routinely described to me as “the weakest in the last 15 years.”

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The Complaints.

Listen, the complaints are understandable. A logical case could have been made for the Bears to spend every single pick Friday night on the offensive side of the ball. One could argue that taking shots on the potential of George Pickens or Alec Pierce or Skyy Moore is more exciting (undoubtedly) and more in-tune with the modern game. But if that’s the case, why were the Baltimore Ravens universally celebrated for their work in the first round, securing a box safety and center while trading away their best outside receiver?

Pickens will be asked to do very little in Pittsburgh (and will do little with those quarterbacks). Pierce and Moore will be no more than third options on their rosters in Indianapolis and Kansas City. The Bears would have been asking all three to start on day one and seriously contribute as rookies. Does anyone actually believe these three players are capable of that? If they were, would several receiver-needy clubs have gleefully passed on them at the backend of the first round?

But most complaints coming from fans are actually based on a fallacy. Bears fans seem to believe the organization needs to pile talent around Justin Fields to accurately assess his ability as a quarterback and make determinations on his future. That is definitively not the case. Ryan Poles and Justin Fields have been side-by-side through this process, even to the point of watching tape together on receiver prospects in the draft.



The team will not hold Fields accountable for the lack of playmaking ability around him. Poles got this job because he looked George McCaskey in the eyes and told him the roster was dreck. No one has a more sober view of the depth chart and the communication between the new leadership and the young quarterback has been impeccable.

Also, this belief that a quarterback requires a stacked roster around him in year two to improve is utter nonsense. Josh Allen’s second-year receivers were John Brown and Cole Beasley. Deshaun Watson’s second receiver in his second year totaled 32 catches. Russell Wilson’s top pass catcher in his sophomore season had 64 catches. Fields is going into this season with a new coaching staff building an offense specifically for him, a talented run game and a 1,000-yard receiver he loves. If he can’t improve in that context, fair questions should be asked.

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The Approach.

If Poles’ board had potential starters at wideout and along the offensive line at the top of the second round, those would have been his selections. But it didn’t. And with secondary being the second-worst position group on the roster, why wouldn’t he hesitate to fortify that unit? As Poles himself stated, “There were two good starting-level defensive players, and I would have made a huge mistake for this organization to say, ‘Let’s leave them there’.”

The Bears believe the best way to “develop” Fields is to take pressure off of him, not artificially inflate the wide receiver room with day two maybes. Selecting Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker (the latter described to me by the aforementioned scout as a “top 35 talent” in this draft) is about establishing a structure for the difficult season to come. The Bears want to run the ball effectively and play solid defense. If they do those two things, they will not have to ask their quarterback – now in his third offensive system in three years – to drop back and fling it 40 times a week.

If the Bears didn’t address their secondary, especially after trading Khalil Mack, the team was looking at fielding an unprofessional group at the backend of their defense. If they did that, they would be chasing every game. Is there a worse possible scenario for a young QB?

The selection of Velus Jones Jr. in the third round also plays to this approach. “Deebo light” might seem like a grandiose designation, with Samuel coming off a brilliant 2021 campaign, but it’s easy to forget that the Niners receiver was more of a prolific gadget player in his first two seasons. Jones’ speed will give the Bears a dynamic they have sorely lacked in the Pace years, a player capable of taking a quick slant or bubble screen to the house at any moment. And it’s also difficult understand how Bears fans – OF ALL FANS – don’t understand the potential viability of drafting college football’s most electric return man.

Jones is a chess piece for an organization whose offensive game strategy hasn’t ascended beyond Connect Four in the modern era.


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NFL Draft, Rounds Two & Three, Open Thread

| April 29th, 2022

Pick # 39

Washington, CB, Kyler Gordon

From NFL.com: “Cornerback who comes with an elite, high-performance engine but a GPS still in the process of loading. Gordon’s dynamic athletic qualities will show up in testing, but more importantly, they are all over his tape. His blend of play strength and explosive burst affects the passing game from press, off-man and zone coverages. He plays with an alpha demeanor and hitting is definitely part of his overall package. Gordon lacks polish and needs to play with better route recognition and anticipation, but if those elements click, his ball production could be near the top of the league as one of the top playmakers in the game.”


Pick #48

Penn State, S, Jaquan Brisker

From NFL.com: “Athletic safety prospect whose versatility and toughness will endear him to coaches during the evaluation process. Brisker continued to pick up elements of the defensive scheme and his play has steadily transformed from hesitant in 2019 to downright instinctive in 2021. He has the versatility to become a moving chess piece in a variety of coverages and has the size and talent to match up with both “Y” and “F” tight ends. He played with a banged-up shoulder in 2021 so his 2020 tape is a clearer indicator of his run support acumen. Brisker is an ascending talent with the NFL traits to become a long-time starter as a Day 2 draft pick.”


Pick #71

Tennessee, WR, Velus Jones Jr. 

From NFL.com: “Special-teams specialist with good size. Despite spending six seasons in college between his time at USC and Tennessee, Jones has very modest production as a wideout, but flashed potential in that area in 2021. He’s fearless with the ball in his hands after the catch and as a kick returner. He’s not a very fundamentally sound route-runner but might not need to be if teams view him as a catch-and-run specialist in the quick game underneath. Jones has a chance to ride his special teams versatility into a specialist spot on a roster.”

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Notes on “Draftable” Players Still Available from Folks Around the League

| April 29th, 2022


Historically, I don’t start thinking about the NFL Draft until the Monday of draft week. Despite the Draft Industrial Complex’s ridiculous year-to-year growth, it’s all you need. 75% of the players drafted this week will be completely irrelevant at the professional level. 10% (max) will be serious contributors. The draft requiring months-upon-months of analysis is a completely modern phenomenon. There used to be 1-2 draft gurus. The draft used to be held in the anonymity of weekend afternoons. And you know what? Teams were probably better at drafting then.

Here are a few notes I got from folks around the league regarding names available for the Bears tonight and the rest of the weekend. I don’t particularly care how the Bears approach Friday night; they need a lot of players. But I would like to see one of those picks be used on wide receiver.

  • On Andrew’s guy George Pickens: “He’s a turd. Absolute head case.”
    • A second scout on Pickens: “Watch him block. He’s going to be a very good pro.”
  • On Wood’s guy Calvin Austin: “Love him. If we didn’t have [REDACTED], we’d be all over him.”
  • On my guy Slade Bolden: “Free agent. Can’t run.”
  • On Christian Watson: “Somebody is going to take him way too high but in the second round, grab him.”
  • On Alec Pierce: “Somebody is going to take Garrett Wilson at 10 and somebody is going to take Alec Pierce at 50 and while Wilson may have a better career it won’t be a huge difference.”
  • On the quarterbacks: “Willis is not good on the whiteboard. Corral has off-field concerns.  I think Howell will be a little better than them all.”
  • On Nick Petit-Frere: “Not a lot of bad snaps, except against Michigan. Solid pro if he can get stronger.”
  • On Luke Goedeke: “Tough/nasty. More of a guard but could get you out of a game at tackle.”

And a general note on the entire draft.

DBB: Why is this draft so unpredictable?

Answer: Because there is no top tier talent. There is no Chase Young, Myles Garrett, Trevor Lawrence….when there are dominant players at QB, LT, pass rusher…we know how the top ten will shake out. There is good and some really good talent in this draft. But very few, if any, surefire blue chippers.  

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My (Somewhat Ironic) Draft Guy: Alabama WR Slade Bolden

| April 25th, 2022


Lance Zierlein.

From his draft profile on NFL.com:

Slot target who will catch and gain what is available but is unlikely to do much beyond that. Bolden has adequate quickness for the Alabama scheme but isn’t an explosive separator. He has the hands and toughness to work in the middle of the field but will see diminishing catch windows the further he gets from the line of scrimmage. He doesn’t have the speed or catch radius to help inaccurate passers and he doesn’t appear to have enough talent to shine outside of the Alabama juggernaut.


Tweet.


Video.


Thoughts.

  • Draft him. Don’t let him slide to the UFA market, where he’ll inevitably sign with the Patriots. Those late-round picks rarely yield positive results. Take a shot on a player that could be a significant contributor at the NFL level. (NFL.com’s seven-round mock has the Pats taking him in the 6th round.)
  • Cooper Kupp ran a 4.62. Bolden runs a 4.66. Their athletic profiles are THAT different? By the way, here’s what Lance Zierlein – an analyst I love – said about Kupp: “His transition to NFL-level cornerbacks will take time, but he has the ability to become an early No. 3 receiver and eventual starter.” This is not an argument that Bolden is the next Kupp. He’s likely not. But these quick-hit slot guys are a young QB’s best friend. And Justin Fields needs some friends.
  • The criticism that “he played for a juggernaut in Alabama” seems silly to me. You want to draft players that went to crappy schools instead? Bolden fought his way onto the field and produced, competing against the most gifted roster in college football. Don’t be surprised if he becomes productive on specials, knowing it’s his quickest path to the game day roster.

[Editor’s Note: My NFL scout buddy thinks Bolden is a non-prospect.]

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My Draft Guy, Volume I: Kentucky G Darian Kinnard

| April 25th, 2022


This week, DBB is trying something new. Instead of just filling your screen with mindless mock drafts, wherein we guess what teams are going to do this week, all three of our writers are going to single out a player they love, specifically for the Bears, in this draft class. (In my case, because I own the site, I’m getting two!)

Today, we start with Darian Kinnard.


Video.


Lance Zierlein.

From his draft profile on NFL.com:

Three-year starter at right tackle with a right guard projection, Kinnard possesses a frame that is very girthy but well proportioned. He’s not a bad athlete but faces limitations with lateral and recovery movements. A transition inside should allow for more advantageous positioning as both a drive blocker and in pass protection. Kinnard is an all-day mauler relying heavily upon a nasty demeanor and physical advantages to overwhelm opponents. However, he could see a substantial downturn in success rate at the pro level unless he spends more time and energy improving his hand usage, footwork and overall technique.


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