We are entering the seventh week of the season and it’s an opportunity to take stock of the league. It might be the strangest beginning to a season in recent memory.

• MVP: He’s averaging 330 yards passing per game. His TD/INT is 17/4. His passer rating is 109.1. His team is 5-1. Josh Allen is already +150 to win the MVP and I recommend betting him now because in a few weeks the bet might be off the board. The best team in the league also has the league’s best player.
• Coach of the Year: Brian Daboll has done a wonderful job reinventing the culture in New Jersey, but their wins have been mostly smoke and mirrors. What Arthur Smith has done through six weeks in Atlanta is a legitimate revelation. The Falcons are 3-3, in first place in the NFC South, and they’ve actually been better than that. Their three losses are by a point, four points and a ridiculous roughing the passer penalty that deprived them the opportunity to beat Tom Brady. But even more importantly, Atlanta is one of the most entertaining teams in the league and that’s because of Smith’s offense.
• When one watches the Packers, there is a bizarre trend. About five times a game, Aaron Rodgers just floats a ball deep down the field into double and triple coverage. The pass has almost zero chance of being completed but he doesn’t seem to mind. It’s as if he’s trying to prove a point as opposed to get a first down. Green Bay letting Davante Adams leave town is proving to be one of the worst personnel decisions a contender has made in recent memory.
• The Raiders are good. They just don’t win.
• The Vikings are not. But they don’t lose.
• Are the Eagles a bit overrated at 6-0? Probably. Their games share a theme: get out to a big lead and hang on for dear life. But man, looking at their 11 remaining games, they’re unlikely to be underdogs a single time. Does that mean they’ll go undefeated? No. But they are headed to 13-14 wins minimum and the top seed in the conference.

Read More …

By now, most fans have come to terms with what the 2022 season is going to be. And what it’s going to be is ugly. But this season won’t be a wasted one if the team drains every ounce of evaluative sweat out of this gym towel of a roster. What do they need to do short-term?

(1) Get Velus Jones into the offense. It is understandable to want his speed involved in the punt return game, but that experiment has failed with gusto. Jones brings a dimension to the offense – speed – that doesn’t currently exist. Oh, he’s struggling with the playbook? Adjust the playbook! You’re telling me Jones is incapable of running 3-4 go routes a game to take the top off the defense? You’re telling me he can’t consistently motion as a decoy? He’s the only player on this roster capable of turning a bubble screen into a 25-yard gain. Play him and commit to getting him five touches a game.

(2) Acknowledge David Montgomery is not your best running back. DBB’s Data has been all over this, for seemingly years, but it’s now obvious that Montgomery is not a better running back than Khalil Herbert. Is he more valuable in the passing game? Yes. And that should guarantee him a role in the offense. But if the Bears are considering giving Montgomery big money, they have completely lost the plot. (For the record, I don’t believe they are.) Start Herbert. Work Montgomery into the game. Start thinking about 2023.

Read Wood’s thread on the issue HERE.

(3) Get Sam Mustipher off the field / Alex Leatherwood on it. Move Lucas Patrick – if healthy – to center and bring the former Raider on to play guard.  It is time to start experimenting with this offensive line at just about every position but the two tackles, where the Bears benefit from seeing Braxton Jones and Larry Borom with a full season of work. Leatherwood’s early career has been a disappointment, but he plays with aggression and that aggression should work for this rushing attack. (And if Leatherwood doesn’t work out, stick Riley Reiff into the lineup. That’s still a move for the future as Patrick profiles better at center than guard, long-term.)

The Bears are seeing, with Kyler Gordon, the importance of letting young players play. Gordon looked like the worst corner in the sport for four weeks but has completely turned his season around. Get as many of these kids on the field as possible and keep them there.

Supposedly, this is a quarterback-heavy NFL Draft. But it also might be a collection of the most quarterback-needy teams we have seen.

This was the draft order, via Tankathon, as of Saturday morning. (Results Sunday have already changed this order but the order as of Week 6 is not particularly important.) Let’s just look at the first 18 selections.

(1) Carolina – needs QB

(2) Las Vegas – could draft QB

(3) Pittsburgh – has QB

(4) Detroit – could draft QB

(5) Houston – needs QB

(6) Chicago – unlikely to draft QB

(7) Washington – needs QB

(8) Atlanta – needs QB

(9) Houston second pick

(10) Philadelphia – has QB

(11 & 12) Seattle – could draft QB

(13) New England – has QB

(14) Arizona – has QB

(15) Detroit second pick

(16) Cincinnati – has QB

(17) Jacksonville – has QB

(18) Indianapolis – eventually Chris Ballard has to draft a QB, right?

The Chicago Bears have picked the right year to be a bad football team.

Read More …

A thread explaining why the rest of this season is going to be a tough watch and why you should emotionally detach yourself from the remaining 11 games for the sake of yourself and those you love.

The Bears didn’t try to win this year. From the moment Poles and Eberflus were brought in, they made it clear with their moves that winning games in 2022 was not a priority.

They didn’t spend on OL or at WR. They traded Khalil Mack to clear money in 2023.

You can criticize that strategy all you like but that’s clearly the strategy: lose in 2022 and then use the full slate of (high) picks and copious cash of 2023 to dramatically remake the complexion of the roster.

The Bears look like they’re “close” to winning because (a) they won a game in a monsoon against a terrible QB and (b) they have played 2 of the 4 worst teams in the league through 6 weeks. Their performances have shown they’re in same class with Hou, DC, Pitt, etc.

Bears next three are at Belichick, at Parsons, home Dolphins.

This team is going to be 2-7 when the Lions come to town and are favored at Soldier Field.

By then, apathy will have settled in across the whole of the fan base.

Read More …

2022 Bears six weeks into the campaign.

I thought they could win 7-8 games if the QB did those things that make you believe he’s the guy. He’s not there yet. Not close. Great runner, great deep ball.

Right now, this feels like 4-13/5-12 first pick in the draft territory.

— DaBearsBlog (@dabearsblog) October 14, 2022

It is Thursday night,

…and up comes the Riverboat!

Let the Fields wind blow!

We’ve reached the “moral victory” part of the season. So that begs the question…

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago. 

Bears.

Thoughts: Commanders vs. Titans

This was a tough watch, but it provided something of a preview for Thursday night. Here are some things that stood out.

• Washington’s center Nick Barton had a nightmare, rolling several shotgun snaps to the feet of Carson Wentz. He also hit the motion man once. How are those mistakes still happening in the fifth week of the season?
• Both Washington and Tennessee consistently buried themselves beyond the chains with penalties and that allowed both pass rushes to essentially control the action. If the Bears find themselves in obvious passing situations, the Commanders will find themselves in the backfield quite a bit.
• While I have been as critical of Wentz as anyone, he threw a gorgeous deep ball in this game. He still makes 3-5 throws a game that make no logical sense but his touch down the field was there Sunday.
• Derrick Henry earned every yard against the Washington defense. It takes hard running to find success against this group. (Generally came away impressed with the unit from the TV broadcast tape.)
• Curtis Samuel is hell to deal with right now, and it’ll be surprising if the Bears don’t struggle containing him on third down.

Three Stats with Potential Value

• This is the first matchup for the Bears where the two teams have a significant gap in turnover differential. The Bears are at 0. The Commanders are at -7. If the Bears win the turnover battle, they’ll win this game.
• The Commanders allow opposing QBs a passer rating of 103.7. Justin Fields is going to have another opportunity for success in that category because Washington will gladly allow him the underneath completions to protect against the deep shot. Fields needs to take them.
• The most boring stat you’ll ever read: both the Bears and Commanders have a season-long punt return of 19 yards.

Read More …

Justin Fields was the major positive to come from Sunday’s loss to the Vikings. But that ground has been well covered. Today’s column looks elsewhere.

Second Half Defensive Dominance

The Bears have now allowed 26 points total in the second half this season, and one touchdown. They’ve also shown a knack for making the big play in the final two quarters, with Kindle Vildor continuing his solid season, adding his first career interception.

Jaylon Johnson isn’t playing. Roquan Smith whiffs on a big tackle every week. The middle of the defensive line is terrible. The pass rush is often nonexistent. But the Bears are emerging from halftime each week an inspired defense. It is a testament to the coaching staff.

Cole Kmet’s Season Begins?

Kmet had two catches against the Texans, three against the Giants, and now four against the Vikings. But if Fields is going to start attacking defenses underneath, like he did Sunday, Kmet is going to be the biggest beneficiary. He is also the only Bears receiving weapon that seems to work the middle of the field.

Rookies Making Plays

Kyler Gordon was a sure tackler and was inches from a game-changing pick six. (His coverage is still an issue.)

Dominique Robinson blocked a field goal.

Velus Jones Jr. scored a touchdown and looked to have a burst in the kickoff return game. (Why was he only on the field for 6% of snaps?)

You don’t win in the NFL playing a bunch of rookies, but their performances suggest a promising future for the franchise.

This is an essay written as a midterm assignment for Sidney Gottlieb’s course, The Films of Alfred Hitchcock.

Framing the Fall_Hitchcock’s Camera and the Journey Downhill