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At Quarterback, What Hope Looks Like.

| October 31st, 2022


Justin Fields is now stacking good performances, a pivotal development in the life of a young quarterback. Since October 9th, with his excellent second half against the Minnesota Vikings, Fields has established himself as a rising young star in the league and quite possibly the class of his position from the 2021 NFL Draft. (Over this same span, Trevor Lawrence’s regression has been palpable.)

First, a mea culpa. Earlier this season I suggested Fields be given a few weeks on the sideline. Not as punishment, mind you, but the game seemed to be moving far too fast for him and he looked like he needed to take in a few Sundays as a spectator and student. (Also, with the modern practice schedule, it is very difficult for a player to improve week-to-week, on the field.) I was wrong. Fields has seemingly played through his issues. His clock has slowed. He’s processing the game quicker. He, along with his offensive coaches, have found a balance when it comes to how the quarterback uses his legs to move the chains. And perhaps most impressively, he’s more accurate on the short and immediately throws.

Fields hasn’t just been better. He’s been good. Most of the box scores are irrelevant. The offensive line, already not among the better units in the league, is now besieged with injuries. And as Fields has become more confident and accurate with the football, the deficiencies of the wide receiving corps have become more evident. They drop too many passes. They fumble too often. They never attack the football in the air. They are a passive, unimpressive group in desperate need of 2023 upgrade.

[Note on this: We are seeing, however, the value in pieces like Mooney, Velus and Kmet. But the team lacks a top thread on the outside.]

There are, however, a few relevant stats.

  • Fields’ last four QB ratings: 118.8, 71.5, 85.2, 120. (And the 85.2 against the Patriots was too dramatically impacted by the interception.)
  • In those four games he has a TD/INT ratio of 5/2.
  • Yet those stats are only about his throwing, and we are seeing each week that his abilities as a runner are perhaps his most special trait, and about as special as you’ll see. In those four games, he has 277 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns. He has not lost a fumble.
  • This means that Fields, when these rushing stats are coupled with his passing numbers, is responsible for about 250 yards of offense per game over the last month. He has also accounted for 7 TDs and only 2 turnovers.

For a young QB in a new system, this is terrific production. And for a franchise desperate for stability at the sport’s most important position, this is what hope looks like.

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Week 8: Bears at Cowboys Game Preview, Volume II (Game Prediction)

| October 28th, 2022


Three Things I Think Will Happen Sunday:

  • Micah Parsons et al will wreck the game. It is just too tall an order for this Bears offensive line. Matt Eberflus and Luke Getsy will likely approach this game about as conservatively as they have all season but there are very few mismatches this obvious in the NFL.
  • The Cowboys, on offense, have been one of the more poorly coached teams in the league. But Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore seemed to discover something against the Lions: their OL and running game can dominate. Expect 10-15 carries each (again) for Tony Pollard an Ezekiel Elliot and expect them to rush for well over 100 yards combined.
  • The return games will be pivotal, especially when it comes to field position. KaVontae Turpin is one of the more electric return men in the sport and the Bears can’t let him give Dallas short fields. Also, this might be a Sunday to encourage whoever is returning kickoffs for the Bears – and it should be Velus Jones – to take a few chances and try to spring a big play. It will take one for the Bears to win.

Dallas Cowboys 20, Chicago Bears 10

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407 Comments

Week 8: Bears at Cowboys Game Preview, Volume I

| October 27th, 2022


They are coming off a truly surprising victory on Monday, so it seems silly to ask…

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.


Biggest Mismatch of the Season

There is, quite literally, no reason to overwrite the game preview this week. The game is going to be decided by the answer to single question: can the Bears block the Cowboys? And to this point in the season, no one has.

Dallas has 91 pressures, 12 more than the next team.

They have a pressure percentage of 32.6%, tops in the sport.

They have 29 sacks, averaging more than four per game: again, best in the league.

This is a matchup that should be expected to wreck the game. The Bears have a banged up offensive line, and their healthy offensive line weren’t particularly good pass blockers anyway.

This is also the most significant challenge Luke Getsy and Justin Fields have faced all season. And I list them as a duo intentionally, because the Bears won’t move the football or contend Sunday if the two men are not operating with a singular, cohesive plan.

Getsy needs to structure the offense around protection. Keep Cole Kmet on the edge, employ an extra lineman, etc. But he also needs to exploit what will certainly be a salivating pass rush. This is the week to use the screen game as a weapon and, if possible, get Velus Jones into the scheme, because his speed could keep Dallas somewhat off-balance.

Fields needs to understand that (a) he will be under consistent duress and (b) he can’t let that duress cause game-ending mistakes. He needs to take the easy throw, even when the easy throw is into the fourth row. When the pocket is collapsing, he needs to quickly use his legs and get what he can on the ground. Waiting for wide receivers to get open Sunday will lead to a replication of the Cleveland game a year ago. These receivers need ages to get open and Fields won’t have ages in the pocket.

If the Bears find a way to block the Cowboys, even half-decently, they can win Sunday. But that will be their most difficult task undertaken this season.

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232 Comments

Hey, I (Almost) Called It…

| October 25th, 2022

From the Game Preview:

  • Kyler Gordon will get the first interception of his career, a pick six, capping off a solid night for the defense overall. But it just won’t be enough to overcome the offensive woes. (It might be enough to start a QB controversy in New England.)

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156 Comments

Week 7 Game Preview: Bears Travel to a Surging Patriots (Where They’ll Likely Lose)

| October 24th, 2022


It ain’t easy but…

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.


Three Stats That Matter

  • Patriots are only allowing opposing quarterbacks a passer rating of 81.1. (9th) Justin Fields has a rating of 72.7. (32nd)
  • Bears are allowing 163 yards per game on the ground. (29th) Patriots average 131.3 per game. (10th)
  • In 13 punt return attempts this season, the Patriots rank 7th, averaging 10.9 yards per return. They only have two fair catches. The Bears have 8 return attempts, rank 30th at 4.4 yards per return, and have two game-costing fumbles.

You have to do serious digging to find an advantage for the Bears tonight.


Video of the Week

Website: Brant Buckley

Four Favorite Things About New England (Eating & Drinking Category)

(4) Crow’s Nest, Gloucester MA

Ever see The Perfect Storm? Well, this is the bar. It’s real and it’s there. And if you’re an adventurous sort, you can sleep upstairs.

____________________

(3) The Black Duck Cafe, Westport CT

Hey, how many bars are actually slowly falling into the water? This one is!

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