In Minnesota,
The quarterback plot persists.
Can Fields be so-so?
So-so would be great.
But it feels so far away.
Just like contention.
Week 5: Bears at Vikings Game Thread & Haikus
Four Things I Think Will Happen:
Minnesota Vikings 27, Chicago Bears 13
Last week was ugly, so…
Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?
I.
Always.
Like.
THE.
Chicago.
Bears.
Mitch Trubisky. Baker Mayfield. Marcus Mariota. Daniel Jones. These are (were) the four quarterbacks of the teams ranked directly above the Chicago Bears in passing yards per game. The Bears are currently throwing for 97.5 yards per game, more than 40 yards per game fewer than the 31st ranked team.
Last year, the New Orleans Saints were last in this statistic. They threw for 187.4 yards per game.
If these numbers don’t dramatically improve for the Bears, this could the worst passing attack in modern football history.
I put the following commentary on Twitter Monday, but I wanted to repost it here. It should help towards understanding how I’m going to be writing about the 2022 Bears, and their quarterback, moving forward.
There was always going to be a contingent of Bears fans who started panicking once the team started losing ugly – an inevitability. These were the “Justin Fields will own the division” and “11 wins are possible” crowd. True believers; nothing wrong with it.
For the first year of a new program, there are definitive positives on the field. (I’ll have a piece about some of them tomorrow.) And you hope that over the next 13 games we simply continue adding to this list, building excitement / momentum for 2023.
But you have to understand that the Bears are far closer to the worst team in the league than the best. We could be looking at a group picking in the top 3 next spring. But two picks in the top 35 might be EXACTLY what this roster needs. (That’s where these fancy WRs are.)
I’m going to stay macro for the remainder of the season and cease the micro stuff. It’s not going to make me a particularly fun follow on game days but that’s where I’m at emotionally/mentally with this team and I feel it’s the smartest way to engage them.
This was NOT an easy list to compile. But I’m happy with my choices. And for all you Bob Dylan fans, I apologize. But I would rather listen to my cats scratch the couch cushions than an 11-minute Dylan mumble. So, I guess I don’t really apologize. I do apologize to the Judy Garland fans, though.
____________________
5. Mitch Hedberg
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4. Terry Gilliam
The research on this project began on something of a whim. While looking at the Charles Musser documentary Beyond the Nickelodeon (for this course), I was struck by two pieces of information I had not previously known. First, that saloons were utilized as early exhibition spaces at the turn of the century, specifically in the lower class and immigrant neighborhoods of New York City. Second, that Edwin S. Porter actually made films satirizing prominent figures in the temperance movement, most notably Carrie Nation in Kansas Saloon Smashers (1901).
I grew up in barrooms and have been lucky enough to travel the world and visit some of the oldest bars, taverns, saloons, inns, public houses, and cafes in existence. It has gone beyond a hobby. It is a passion, and on this very blog I published a list of my 100 favorite such establishments, open or closed. The notion of my two life passions, saloons and the cinema, having a “special relationship”, was exciting. It sent me on this research journey.
The Bears are not a good football team. But they have won two of their first four games, so there must be positives to take from this early portion of the season. Here are four.
Second Half Defense
This coaching staff has clearly displayed the ability to make defensive adjustments at halftime, as the Bears have allowed only 18 total points in the second half and zero touchdowns. This group still needs an injection of talent in coming off-seasons, but Matt Eberflus and Alan Williams are showing they can put a competitive unit on the field with whatever they’re given.
Eddie Jackson’s Return to Form
EJ will be 29 when the all-important 2023 season begins, and many of us believed he would not be part of this new leadership’s plans. But through four games, Jackson has been the team’s best and most consistent defender, rediscovering his ballhawk abilities (3 INTs) and looking determined/aggressive in run support. With Jaquan Brisker looking the part beside him, the Bears look like they have the back of the secondary solidified for the next several years.
The Run Game
Everyone wants to make the blanket statement – “the offense is terrible” – but it’s factually untrue. The Bears have one of the best running games in the league, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and 177.3 yards per game. What they are terrible at is throwing the football and throwing the football is how you score points in the modern NFL. But the Bears are establishing a run-game baseline for the future that will be essential.
The 2022 Draft Class
The Bears did not have a first rounder in the 2022 NFL Draft, but they seem to have found some real players. Brisker is playing like a first rounder. Braxton Jones is showing signs that he can develop into a serious answer at left tackle. Trenton Gill is a terrific punter, delivering his best performance in the conditions in the Meadowlands on Sunday. Dominique Robinson has 1.5 sacks and is showing to be a playmaker.
Two questions remain. Can Velus Jones be worked into this offense post-injury, and can Kyler Gordon recover from a brutal start to his career? But otherwise, this draft class is reason for front office optimism.
The Bears are a bad football team. And they are going to win some games this year because there are several other bad football teams, and their schedule is laden with them.
Through the first month of this season, Matt Eberflus and Luke Getsy have called the games they believed they needed to call in order to win. They have operated with that singular mission It worked, twice. It failed, twice. But at 2-2 there are obvious truths about this 2022 team that need facing.
The Bears are not good. (If you embrace this point, you can skip the next few sentences.)
The Bears cannot compete with the better teams in the league.
The Bears are allowing Rutgers-level yardage on the ground.
The Bears don’t have a passing game.
The Bears have liabilities across their young roster.
The Bears have nothing to play for in 2022, except for 2023.
And this last point is why Flus and Getsy must transition from the “try to win games” approach to the “see what we have at quarterback” approach. If Justin Fields has any chance to be the future of the Chicago Bears at quarterback, the next 13 games have to be centrally focused on answering that question. If that means he throws a bad interception on 3rd and 16, so be it. If that means he bails on a pocket too early around the goal line and fails to score a touchdown, so be it. If that means the team loses a few games they should win, so be it. Playing offensive football, the way they are currently playing it, has zero – I repeat, ZERO – long-term benefits for this organization.
Five Things I Think Will Happen:
Both of these teams play slow, ugly football games. And that’s exactly what we’ll see in NJ.
Chicago Bears 23, New Jersey Giants 20
They are coming off one of the least rewarding wins in recent memory. So…
I.
Always.
Like.
THE.
Chicago.
Bears.
If you were to list the six men playing quarterback at the highest level through three games, who would you list? Jalen Hurts. Tua. Josh Allen. Lamar Jackson. Mahomes. Probably Trevor Lawrence?
Well, those six men currently lead the NFL in passer rating. Passer rating is not a flawless stat by any means. Quarterbacks should not be penalized for throwing the football away or for interceptions off the hands of their receivers. And quarterbacks should be rewarded statistically for avoiding negative plays and extending drives with their legs. But nevertheless, the passer rating stat is still our finest tool for measuring consistency at the position. All six of those players have a rating north of 100, and you don’t fluke your way into that number.
Justin Fields’ passer rating is 50. That ranks him 33rd in the league. And yes, there are only 32 starting quarterbacks.
The gap between Fields and Mac Jones in 31st (Trey Lance is 32nd) is 26.2 points.
That’s the gap between Jones and the top six, with Lawrence at 103.1.
This means that, according to the passer rating statistic, Fields is as far being the 31st ranked quarterback as Jones – who has been terrible – is from being a borderline Pro Bowler.
The Giants, who have a terrible secondary, have played three quarterbacks. Their passer ratings against:
Fields needs a clean game. No turnovers. High completion percentage. A few big plays. Nobody should be asking for (or looking for) more than that at this stage. If Fields can pitch to a QB rating around 90, there will at least be SOME reason for optimism moving forward in 2022.
Thinking about 2022 as a developmental season means thinking about what the primary roster needs will be heading into 2023. And just three weeks into the season, those needs are becoming clear on the defensive side of the football.
First things first. The Bears should not even consider letting Roquan Smith play elsewhere next season. Does that mean signing him to a $100 million contract? Not necessarily. While a happy Roquan is the best possible outcome for both sides, it was obvious Sunday that Roquan is more than capable of delivering a professional (and brilliant) performance even without the (somewhat absurd) guaranteed money he seeks. The franchise tag is awful for players, but it exists, and the Bears should not hesitate to use it on one of the best defensive players in the league. Unless another team approaches with a knockout trade offer Roquan should be wearing #58 in Chicago next year.
Second is the secondary, which looks solid at the very back and sketchy everywhere else. At corner, there are too many questions. Can Jaylon Johnson stay healthy for a season? Kindle Vildor has shown an ability to make plays, but can he display the consistency required to be a starting NFL corner? Kyler Gordon is a rookie, and rookies struggle, but some of Gordon’s struggles are, let’s just call them…eye-popping. Yet there are still plenty of moments that show why Gordon was selected in the second round, including several in the second half Sunday. Can he overcome the former and produce more of the latter? Corner is a position where you can’t have too much talent and the Bears need to add several quality bodies.
Last, and the opposite of least, is the defensive front. There is some talent on this line, but it’s hard not to notice two alarming trends.
Through three games, the Bears are firmly a mid-table defense, which should give fans confidence in what Matt Eberflus and defensive coordinator Alan Williams are building in Chicago. They don’t have top of the league defensive talent. But they might only be three or four players away from being among the game’s best.
