Three Things I Think Will Happen Sunday:

• Micah Parsons et al will wreck the game. It is just too tall an order for this Bears offensive line. Matt Eberflus and Luke Getsy will likely approach this game about as conservatively as they have all season but there are very few mismatches this obvious in the NFL.
• The Cowboys, on offense, have been one of the more poorly coached teams in the league. But Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore seemed to discover something against the Lions: their OL and running game can dominate. Expect 10-15 carries each (again) for Tony Pollard an Ezekiel Elliot and expect them to rush for well over 100 yards combined.
• The return games will be pivotal, especially when it comes to field position. KaVontae Turpin is one of the more electric return men in the sport and the Bears can’t let him give Dallas short fields. Also, this might be a Sunday to encourage whoever is returning kickoffs for the Bears – and it should be Velus Jones – to take a few chances and try to spring a big play. It will take one for the Bears to win.

Dallas Cowboys 20, Chicago Bears 10

They are coming off a truly surprising victory on Monday, so it seems silly to ask…

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

Biggest Mismatch of the Season

There is, quite literally, no reason to overwrite the game preview this week. The game is going to be decided by the answer to single question: can the Bears block the Cowboys? And to this point in the season, no one has.

Dallas has 91 pressures, 12 more than the next team.

They have a pressure percentage of 32.6%, tops in the sport.

They have 29 sacks, averaging more than four per game: again, best in the league.

This is a matchup that should be expected to wreck the game. The Bears have a banged up offensive line, and their healthy offensive line weren’t particularly good pass blockers anyway.

This is also the most significant challenge Luke Getsy and Justin Fields have faced all season. And I list them as a duo intentionally, because the Bears won’t move the football or contend Sunday if the two men are not operating with a singular, cohesive plan.

Getsy needs to structure the offense around protection. Keep Cole Kmet on the edge, employ an extra lineman, etc. But he also needs to exploit what will certainly be a salivating pass rush. This is the week to use the screen game as a weapon and, if possible, get Velus Jones into the scheme, because his speed could keep Dallas somewhat off-balance.

Fields needs to understand that (a) he will be under consistent duress and (b) he can’t let that duress cause game-ending mistakes. He needs to take the easy throw, even when the easy throw is into the fourth row. When the pocket is collapsing, he needs to quickly use his legs and get what he can on the ground. Waiting for wide receivers to get open Sunday will lead to a replication of the Cleveland game a year ago. These receivers need ages to get open and Fields won’t have ages in the pocket.

If the Bears find a way to block the Cowboys, even half-decently, they can win Sunday. But that will be their most difficult task undertaken this season.

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From the Game Preview:

• Kyler Gordon will get the first interception of his career, a pick six, capping off a solid night for the defense overall. But it just won’t be enough to overcome the offensive woes. (It might be enough to start a QB controversy in New England.)

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!

: #CHIvsNE on ESPN pic.twitter.com/w3HXtNSnzd

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) October 25, 2022

In ole New England

‘Tis lovely this time of year.

Well, at least it was.

It ain’t easy but…

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

Three Stats That Matter

• Patriots are only allowing opposing quarterbacks a passer rating of 81.1. (9th) Justin Fields has a rating of 72.7. (32nd)
• Bears are allowing 163 yards per game on the ground. (29th) Patriots average 131.3 per game. (10th)
• In 13 punt return attempts this season, the Patriots rank 7th, averaging 10.9 yards per return. They only have two fair catches. The Bears have 8 return attempts, rank 30th at 4.4 yards per return, and have two game-costing fumbles.

You have to do serious digging to find an advantage for the Bears tonight.

Video of the Week

Four Favorite Things About New England (Eating & Drinking Category)

(4) Crow’s Nest, Gloucester MA

Ever see The Perfect Storm? Well, this is the bar. It’s real and it’s there. And if you’re an adventurous sort, you can sleep upstairs.

____________________

(3) The Black Duck Cafe, Westport CT

Hey, how many bars are actually slowly falling into the water? This one is!

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We are entering the seventh week of the season and it’s an opportunity to take stock of the league. It might be the strangest beginning to a season in recent memory.

• MVP: He’s averaging 330 yards passing per game. His TD/INT is 17/4. His passer rating is 109.1. His team is 5-1. Josh Allen is already +150 to win the MVP and I recommend betting him now because in a few weeks the bet might be off the board. The best team in the league also has the league’s best player.
• Coach of the Year: Brian Daboll has done a wonderful job reinventing the culture in New Jersey, but their wins have been mostly smoke and mirrors. What Arthur Smith has done through six weeks in Atlanta is a legitimate revelation. The Falcons are 3-3, in first place in the NFC South, and they’ve actually been better than that. Their three losses are by a point, four points and a ridiculous roughing the passer penalty that deprived them the opportunity to beat Tom Brady. But even more importantly, Atlanta is one of the most entertaining teams in the league and that’s because of Smith’s offense.
• When one watches the Packers, there is a bizarre trend. About five times a game, Aaron Rodgers just floats a ball deep down the field into double and triple coverage. The pass has almost zero chance of being completed but he doesn’t seem to mind. It’s as if he’s trying to prove a point as opposed to get a first down. Green Bay letting Davante Adams leave town is proving to be one of the worst personnel decisions a contender has made in recent memory.
• The Raiders are good. They just don’t win.
• The Vikings are not. But they don’t lose.
• Are the Eagles a bit overrated at 6-0? Probably. Their games share a theme: get out to a big lead and hang on for dear life. But man, looking at their 11 remaining games, they’re unlikely to be underdogs a single time. Does that mean they’ll go undefeated? No. But they are headed to 13-14 wins minimum and the top seed in the conference.

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By now, most fans have come to terms with what the 2022 season is going to be. And what it’s going to be is ugly. But this season won’t be a wasted one if the team drains every ounce of evaluative sweat out of this gym towel of a roster. What do they need to do short-term?

(1) Get Velus Jones into the offense. It is understandable to want his speed involved in the punt return game, but that experiment has failed with gusto. Jones brings a dimension to the offense – speed – that doesn’t currently exist. Oh, he’s struggling with the playbook? Adjust the playbook! You’re telling me Jones is incapable of running 3-4 go routes a game to take the top off the defense? You’re telling me he can’t consistently motion as a decoy? He’s the only player on this roster capable of turning a bubble screen into a 25-yard gain. Play him and commit to getting him five touches a game.

(2) Acknowledge David Montgomery is not your best running back. DBB’s Data has been all over this, for seemingly years, but it’s now obvious that Montgomery is not a better running back than Khalil Herbert. Is he more valuable in the passing game? Yes. And that should guarantee him a role in the offense. But if the Bears are considering giving Montgomery big money, they have completely lost the plot. (For the record, I don’t believe they are.) Start Herbert. Work Montgomery into the game. Start thinking about 2023.

Read Wood’s thread on the issue HERE.

(3) Get Sam Mustipher off the field / Alex Leatherwood on it. Move Lucas Patrick – if healthy – to center and bring the former Raider on to play guard.  It is time to start experimenting with this offensive line at just about every position but the two tackles, where the Bears benefit from seeing Braxton Jones and Larry Borom with a full season of work. Leatherwood’s early career has been a disappointment, but he plays with aggression and that aggression should work for this rushing attack. (And if Leatherwood doesn’t work out, stick Riley Reiff into the lineup. That’s still a move for the future as Patrick profiles better at center than guard, long-term.)

The Bears are seeing, with Kyler Gordon, the importance of letting young players play. Gordon looked like the worst corner in the sport for four weeks but has completely turned his season around. Get as many of these kids on the field as possible and keep them there.

Supposedly, this is a quarterback-heavy NFL Draft. But it also might be a collection of the most quarterback-needy teams we have seen.

This was the draft order, via Tankathon, as of Saturday morning. (Results Sunday have already changed this order but the order as of Week 6 is not particularly important.) Let’s just look at the first 18 selections.

(1) Carolina – needs QB

(2) Las Vegas – could draft QB

(3) Pittsburgh – has QB

(4) Detroit – could draft QB

(5) Houston – needs QB

(6) Chicago – unlikely to draft QB

(7) Washington – needs QB

(8) Atlanta – needs QB

(9) Houston second pick

(10) Philadelphia – has QB

(11 & 12) Seattle – could draft QB

(13) New England – has QB

(14) Arizona – has QB

(15) Detroit second pick

(16) Cincinnati – has QB

(17) Jacksonville – has QB

(18) Indianapolis – eventually Chris Ballard has to draft a QB, right?

The Chicago Bears have picked the right year to be a bad football team.

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