Week 17: Bears at Lions Open Thread
Chicago Bears 34, Detroit Lions 31
Why do I like the Chicago Bears this week?
I always like…
Thoughts on the opponent…
Stats that matter…
Blah.
Blah.
Blah.
There is only one relevant question facing the Bears as they head to Detroit Sunday: should the team actually want to win? It is hard to argue that answer is yes.
The team is currently positioned with the second pick in the NFL Draft and, as Dannehy pointed out yesterday, they should be considered the frontrunner for the top pick, as Houston is playing their best football in the final weeks of the season. Winning might provide some cosmetic confidence but it would also throw the Bears into a jumble with Denver, Arizona, and Indianapolis, three four-win teams with considerably easier strengths of schedule, the tiebreaker when it comes to draft order.
(Gaining confidence from meaningless victories is inherently nonsensical. A great number of 2022 Chicago Bears won’t be 2023 Chicago Bears. And the ones that stick around won’t require meaningless victories for confidence.)
If it were just about selecting a player, one could argue the difference between picking second and fifth isn’t that big a deal. Selecting players is a crap shoot. Don’t tell me you know what Jalen Carter or Will Anderson will be at the next level because you don’t. The fourth and fifth picks in 2022 – Sauce Gardner and Kayvon Thibodeaux – had significantly more impactful rookie campaigns than first overall pick Travon Walker. (Is there any question the Jags would take Sauce in a 2022 re-draft?)
What is not a crap shoot is the league’s consistently absurd overvaluing of quarterback prospects come draft time. The best years to select at the top of the draft are years where your team doesn’t need a quarterback and four-to-five QBs are projected into the first round. That’s exactly what 2023 looks like for the Chicago Bears. Ryan Wilson at CBS Sports projects four QBs in round one. Jamie Eisner at The Draft Network also projects four, with three of the first four picks being quarterbacks. Walter Football only projects three but all three gone in the first six picks. This may not be a draft deep at quarterback, but it is top heavy. And that’s when you want your pick at the top.
When you’re rebuilding your roster, the key is word is options. You re-sign key contributors to give yourself options in free agency. You’re judicious in free agency to give yourself options in the draft. And the higher the draft pick in the first round, the more options you have at that event. If the Bears have the first or second pick, they will have multiple teams making offers. There is no question about it. Look at how many teams currently slotted in the top 15 need QBS: Houston (1st), Seattle (3rd), Indianapolis (5th), Atlanta (6th), Detroit (7th), Carolina (8th), Vegas (9th), Tennessee (13th) and the Jets (15th). You can nitpick these quarterbacks all you like, but historically NFL franchises err on the side of hope.
The Bears will play Sunday. And with their rushing attack, and the porous Detroit rush defense, they could actually win the game. But with a roster in turnover, and the rostered group decimated by injury, it is hard to argue the positives of that potential victory. Having the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft gives the Bears the clearest path to a quick turnaround. That means losing on Sunday.
I have nothing more to say about the 2022 Chicago Bears. So here are some thoughts on the other teams.
Kyler Gordon vs Stefon Diggs pic.twitter.com/82PIdPafPx
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) December 24, 2022
Kyler Gordon is improving. He has a GREAT feel for zone coverage and is one of the better tackling CB’s in the league. This Bears secondary will be dangerous once they get a pass rush. #DaBears #Bears #ChicagoBears pic.twitter.com/8TOKUIv5aA
— Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) December 25, 2022
Buffalo Bills 27, Chicago Bears 13
Let’s be honest, we’re going through the motions here.
Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?
I.
Always.
Like.
THE.
Chicago.
Bears.
The Bills came into this season in an incredibly difficult spot. They were the universal choice to win the Super Bowl, many believing they should have won it all LAST year (including me). They had nothing to gain and everything to lose in this regular season. And through 15 weeks, they have had to both shoulder the burden of expectations and survive an onslaught of injuries at key positions, especially on defense.
And they have weathered all of it. It hasn’t always been pretty, but they now find themselves the top seed in the AFC with three games to play. Their schedule isn’t easy down this final stretch, with a Monday Night Football visit to Cincinnati in Week 17, but even facing the prospect of an AFC title game in KC, the Bills will likely be the Super Bowl favorite coming out of the regular season. And deservedly so.
With conditions expected to be difficult on Sunday, don’t expect it to bother Josh Allen and the Bills. Nothing bothers them. And when conditions are difficult, I’d expect the bigger effort to come from the better team with everything to play for.
Offense:
Notes: The ascendancy of the Bears offense is showing up statistically, and their path to increased improvement is clear. The Bears know they’ll be able to run the football in 2023. Every decision they make this off-season should be geared towards improving the passing game.
Defense:
Notes: These numbers tell me something: the Bears are seriously improved at the back of this defense. If they focus on the defensive line, including the pass rush, they should be able to jump their overall defensive numbers into the top half of the league. If they do that, this is a playoff contender in 2023.
Thought experiment.
Name a position on the Chicago Bears that can’t be significantly improved.
The quarterback is the most exciting football player in Chicago since Devin Hester, but he certainly has much room for improvement, and our own Data detailed where that improvement might come.
The running back room is as deep as you’ll find in the league but is there a home run hitter in the group? Are any of these guys a Derrick Henry, or Travis Etienne?
The pass catchers and offensive linemen are both bottom five in the sport. Is there a single irreplaceable player to be found at center, guard, tackle, tight end or wideout? (I have seriously high hopes for Chase Claypool and think Braxton Jones and Teven Jenkins can develop into players. But that’s about it.)
There are some serious young talents on the defensive side of the ball. But there is not a single player over there that currently ranks in the top ten in the sport at their position.
When you look at the top teams in the league – Buffalo, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Philly, San Francisco – what do you see? With a proliferation, a plethora of blue-chip players, these are not rosters stuffed with talent deemed “good enough” to compete. These are rosters with a half dozen or more guys who define how the sport is played at the highest level. And the Bears must not rule out addressing ANY position on the roster (outside QB) until they have found several of those players for themselves.
“Good enough” is not good enough. “Good enough” only works when a roster is also littered with “great”, and the Bears are a long way from that. Ryan Poles has shown himself to be somewhat ruthless when it comes to reconstructing the Chicago Bears. He’s good at demolition. For the Bears to win under his leadership, he’ll need to show he can not only tear down the block, but he can also build something beautiful on the site of the wreckage.
That works starts as soon as this season comes to its merciful end.
