33.
29.
32.

Those are the points scored by the Chicago Bears over the last three weeks.

Having a QB is fun.

— DaBearsBlog (@dabearsblog) November 7, 2022

It is my favorite day of the year in NYC: marathon Sunday. 

Attention will be paid to the Bears/Dolphins, as long as my friends aren’t running by the bar I’m in.

Five Things I Think Will Happen:

• The Bears will continue their offensive progression, and this week Chase Claypool will be a big reason why.  Claypool is a big-bodied receiver who can operate over the middle of the field, but lives on the barrier. He certainly won’t be able to operate the full playbook but I expect the Bears to use him enough to excite their fans.
• Tyreek Hill won’t get the Bears deep. Jaylen Waddle will dominate them underneath. Matt Eberflus will sit Eddie Jackson in centerfield and Jackson will pick off Tua early. After that the Miami quarterback will pepper short crosses to Waddle and Waddle’s speed/YAC will wreak havoc on the Bears. 11 catches. 141 yards. 2 touchdowns.
• This is a good Dolphins run defense. And the Bears will still eclipse 150 yards rushing.
• It won’t quite be “The Trevis Gipson Game” but he will swarm Tua’s blindside consistently and create a game-changing sack fumble in the fourth quarter.
• Cairo Santos makes a 51-yard field goal as the clock expires.

Chicago Bears 29, Miami Dolphins 27

The Bears are selling off their best defenders and about to face one of the most explosive offenses in the league. So…

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

So, who are the Chicago Bears Now?

The answer to that question is simple. They are their quarterback.

This franchise will no longer, at least in the short term, be defined by the question, “Can they get enough from the quarterback position to be competitive?” Their quarterback is settling into a groove, the coaching staff is building their plan around his abilities, and that combination of groove/plan is going to be the Chicago identity for the foreseeable future.

The Bears scored 33 against the Patriots. Because of their QB.

The Bears scored 29 against the Cowboys. Because of their QB.

As they trade off pieces, especially on defense, winning and losing will almost be arbitrary. If the Bears can steal a few takeaways, they can win almost every game left on their schedule. If they don’t, they are destined to lose some shootouts.

Shootouts.

The Chicago Bears.

Because of the quarterback.

Justin Fields eludes Cowboys D for designed run TD. He’s up to 32 yards and a score rushing as Bears narrow deficit to 14-7pic.twitter.com/TCB3lsdYty

— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) October 30, 2022

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Chase Claypool brings a field-stretching element to the Bears offense, having run the 5th-most go routes (380) since entering the NFL in 2020.

Justin Fields has targeted go routes on 11% of his attempts in his career, the 8th-highest rate since 2021.#DaBears https://t.co/qEq6zsmhBK pic.twitter.com/SzueCJ1PUY

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 1, 2022

Yesterday, the Chicago Bears traded Roquan Smith to the Baltimore Ravens, and the internet was full of folks desperately trying to ascertain what the trade “meant.” Well, here’s what it meant. The Bears did not want to give the standout inside linebacker anywhere near the $100 million he was seeking. Why? Several reasons.

First, they didn’t trust him at the organizational level. Roquan had a weird history with this club and that history involved an active nightlife that often got him into trouble. It was fair for ownership to wonder whether Smith would remain motivated after receiving a massive payday. When guys are not “football first” – and Roquan was decidedly not – motivation often decreases when the bank balance increases.

Second, the production was not there in 2022. Forget tackles, and the occasional interception. Roquan Smith is an off-ball linebacker in a pass-heavy NFL. The Bears are the second worst run defense in the league. Opposing tight ends eat their lunch every week. Smith is not entirely to blame for either development in 2022, but he too often disappears from games. The Bears needed Roquan to play like a superstar every week. Through eight weeks, had he performed that level three times? If the team can get torched for 49 by the Cowboys with him playing every snap, why not try somebody else at the position and use the picks/money saved to get better elsewhere on the roster?

Third, look at their needs. They need pass rushers, plural, and those cost big money. They need another corner, badly, and that will cost big money. They need a pair of receivers and, you guessed, those cost big money. And they need another tackle, at least, and those don’t come cheap. The team simply wasn’t in position to tie up any substantial cash in a secondary position when they have so many primary needs.

The Bear made Roquan an offer. They believed it was a fair offer. Roquan did not agree, abandoning the negotiating table and taking things public with a trade request. When he did so, he terminated his long-term relationship with the franchise’s new general manager. Yesterday, the franchise terminated their relationship with him. Was it a bold move? Yes. It was also inevitable.

Compensation update: Bears are trading LB Roquan Smith to the Ravens in exchange for second- and fifth-round picks, per source.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 31, 2022

Justin Fields is now stacking good performances, a pivotal development in the life of a young quarterback. Since October 9th, with his excellent second half against the Minnesota Vikings, Fields has established himself as a rising young star in the league and quite possibly the class of his position from the 2021 NFL Draft. (Over this same span, Trevor Lawrence’s regression has been palpable.)

First, a mea culpa. Earlier this season I suggested Fields be given a few weeks on the sideline. Not as punishment, mind you, but the game seemed to be moving far too fast for him and he looked like he needed to take in a few Sundays as a spectator and student. (Also, with the modern practice schedule, it is very difficult for a player to improve week-to-week, on the field.) I was wrong. Fields has seemingly played through his issues. His clock has slowed. He’s processing the game quicker. He, along with his offensive coaches, have found a balance when it comes to how the quarterback uses his legs to move the chains. And perhaps most impressively, he’s more accurate on the short and immediately throws.

Fields hasn’t just been better. He’s been good. Most of the box scores are irrelevant. The offensive line, already not among the better units in the league, is now besieged with injuries. And as Fields has become more confident and accurate with the football, the deficiencies of the wide receiving corps have become more evident. They drop too many passes. They fumble too often. They never attack the football in the air. They are a passive, unimpressive group in desperate need of 2023 upgrade.

[Note on this: We are seeing, however, the value in pieces like Mooney, Velus and Kmet. But the team lacks a top thread on the outside.]

There are, however, a few relevant stats.

• Fields’ last four QB ratings: 118.8, 71.5, 85.2, 120. (And the 85.2 against the Patriots was too dramatically impacted by the interception.)
• In those four games he has a TD/INT ratio of 5/2.
• Yet those stats are only about his throwing, and we are seeing each week that his abilities as a runner are perhaps his most special trait, and about as special as you’ll see. In those four games, he has 277 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns. He has not lost a fumble.
• This means that Fields, when these rushing stats are coupled with his passing numbers, is responsible for about 250 yards of offense per game over the last month. He has also accounted for 7 TDs and only 2 turnovers.

For a young QB in a new system, this is terrific production. And for a franchise desperate for stability at the sport’s most important position, this is what hope looks like.

Justin Fields

The First Half Defense

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