Johnson’s coaching staff,

Established and impressive.

Did Bears get it right?

4-0 on divisional weekend, after a 4-2 wildcard weekend. At 8-2, this is my best NFL postseason in a long time.

Sunday January 26 – 3:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

Two elements in this game are leading me to take the Eagles.

(1) Vic Fangio vs. a rookie quarterback. Jayden Daniels has been incredible this season, but Fangio has seen him twice, and I would expect one of the game’s best defensive minds to show Daniels a series of looks he has yet to experience.

(2) Saquon Barkley. This is his postseason, and I see another 150+ on the ground.

I’m laying the points and not looking back.

Sunday January 26 – 6:30 PM ET

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

There’s no reason to bet against the Chiefs.

None.

Zero.

So, I’m doing it.

Baltimore was a brutal matchup for Buffalo, with a running attack that could control the time of possession and wear out a smaller Bills defense. But the Ravens made too many mistakes and the Bills advanced.

Can the Chiefs run the ball the ball as effectively as Baltimore? No. Do they have the ability to go out and score 30 and win a shootout? No. They’re simply the grittiest team in modern NFL history, as comfortable down three as they are up 10. They have a single, definitive, remarkable trait: they know how to win big games in January and February.

But I’m going with the best player on the field, Josh Allen. How many times can he lose this particular game? How many times will he allow the final NFL Sunday to exclude him? I’m taking the points and trusting the Buffalo quarterback to get it done.

3 AM ET: I will be live blogging the press conference. Come back for the one-liners and full-throated criticism of the new coach’s haircut.

11:53 AM: Things I will be focused on:

• Cliche usage. I’d love to see one of these press conferences that is void of mindless coach speak.
• Hair. Call it “the Trestman effect.” One look at Marc Trestman and any objective observer knew success was an impossibility.
• Dumb questions. Which of the reporters will try to stir a nonexistent pot? My bet is Dan Wiederer is disappointed to learn that once again I’m far better connected in the sport than he is and tries to create some news.

12 PM: Really like the single, isolated podium approach to this press conference. It makes this event about a solitary figure, not the organization writ large. And I love Ryan Poles vacating the podium in 30 seconds. Perfectly executed.

12:01 PM: Ben Johnson sounds like a football coach. Very few platitudes coming out of him. He sounds tough. It is a departure from what we’ve heard around here recently.

12:02 PM: Why is this presser not on the NFL Network right now? When did the NFL Network abdicate their role at this time of the season? They used to cover every firing, and every hiring.

12:03 PM: NFL Network literally just broke into the presser while I was finishing the previous sentence.

12:05 PM: Ben Johnson says the roster is “loaded with talent” and that’s something I had been hearing a lot in the last month.

12:07 PM: “Get comfortable being uncomfortable” is a terrific line from a first-time head coach. I didn’t hear a single cliche from Johnson in his introductory remarks. He sounds like a guy who knows he is ready for the opportunity.

12:10 PM: One thing I love about this press conference: it is super boring. No Trestman hair. No Adam Gase eyes. Nothing but a football guy talking about football. Refreshing.

12:13 PM: Interesting to hear Johnson say how important it was to raise his family in a city they love. That is something fans never understand. (Nobody really wants to live in Jacksonville, and nobody wants to raise their children in Las Vegas.)

12:15 PM: “Most important thing we do here is establish the culture in the springtime.” Pivotal point, and something that I reiterate when folks are critical of interim coaches. The head coach does his primary work in the off-season.

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The Bears have a new head coach, and it is the most coveted offensive mind on the market. Here are some notes.

• I spent a few days around Christmas with a high-ranking personnel man in the league. He was adamant about this marriage taking place THEN. I’ve seen some national writers deem this move a “surprise”, but it was certainly not a surprise to anyone I speak with routinely about the sport.
• As I said on the Irish Bears Show, Ryan Poles wanted Ben Johnson, and Ben Johnson is excited to work with Poles. But Johnson did have questions re: the structure of the organization, primarily Kevin Warren’s role in football operations. I’m told George McCaskey made it clear that football ops are not in Warren’s purview.
• Tom Brady complicated the deal. This is undeniable. He made a great argument for the Raiders job and Johnson certainly considered it.
• Mike McCarthy was the backup plan. The Bears flew him in specifically for that purpose, showing they were nervous about Brady’s influence. (Side note: how can the league be comfortable with one of their four most important broadcasters being this influential with a single franchise?)
• Expect this staff to come together quickly. I’m told Johnson had specific names during the Zoom call last week, and one of those names is Dennis Allen as defensive coordinator. But Johnson has said he wants as many former head coaches as possible in the building.
• I’ll be discussing the hiring further with my friends in Des Moines at 1:45 PM ET today, after I’ve had an opportunity to make a few calls on the situation.
• I would expect Johnson’s introductory press conference to be tomorrow, and I’ll be here to live blog that.

A new day in Chicago: The #Bears are finalizing a deal to hire Ben Johnson as their head coach, per sources.

Johnson is set to fly there soon and contract parameters are in place. Barring a last-minute snag, the #Lions OC lands with an NFC North rival. pic.twitter.com/Y1i4lRtpw5

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 20, 2025

Kansas City Chiefs 23, Houston Texans 14

• Every Chiefs game looks exactly the same. But one has to imagine that will need to change in the next round if they’ll have a chance to three-peat.

Washington Commanders 45, Detroit Lions 31

• How do the Lions recover from a loss like this? Despite the injuries, they entered Saturday night as nearly 10-point favorites at home against a rookie quarterback. Now, after a humiliating loss, they face an off-season where they could potentially lose both coordinators and faith in their quarterback. Dan Campbell might have the most difficult job to do in the NFL over the next nine months.

Philadelphia Eagles 28, Los Angeles Rams 22

• How do you handicap a game in conditions like that? I think in normal weather, Rams win. But Saquon Barkley and the Eagles offensive line are the most powerful weapons remaining in the postseason.

Buffalo Bills 27, Baltimore Ravens 25

• When full flight, the Ravens felt like the best team in the league this season. But they just lost too many games like this; games they should have won.

4-2 last weekend, losing only the coin flip game between Washington and Tampa and the game everybody lost, Los Angeles at Houston. (Where the hell did that Justin Herbert performance even come from?) Still, a very good start to the postseason and my quest to make some money off the NFL in 2025.

Saturday January 18th – 4:30 PM ET

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

I’m going to lay the points because I think the Chiefs have spent the entire season preparing for this game and what they did in the 2024 regular season is not particularly relevant. I expect Mahomes to look like Mahomes, Kelce to look like Kelce, and Chris Jones is going to make it impossible for CJ Stroud to mount any kind of comeback. It is January. The Chiefs will Chief.

Saturday January 18th – 8:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5)

Since the Hail Maryland, which I was lucky enough to witness in person, these are the score differentials of the Washington games: 5, 1, 8, 8, 23, 1, 3, 6, 4, 3. Since November, they rarely win big, and they rarely lose big.

I think Detroit will win this game, and ultimately win the NFC, but this strikes me as game wherein Washington could either (a) score early and keep it close, or (b) score late for the backdoor cover. Because I’ve got multiple working scenarios, I’ll take the points.

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