Four Thoughts on the Ballgame

• The legs of the quarterbacks could possibly be the story. Patrick Mahomes has always extended drives with his legs in the biggest moments of his career. Jalen Hurts’ ability to carry the ball is the added dimension that makes Philly so difficult to defend. Mahomes is on one leg. Hurts has been reticent to carry the ball since injury. It begs the question: which player is more lethal with limited mobility? The answer is simple: Mahomes.
• How do these two quarterbacks handle the pressure? Hurts and the Eagles were sacked 44 times. Mahomes and the Chiefs only 26 times. What does it mean? It is a question of design. The Eagles want to get the ball to their big-ticket wide receivers. And doing so takes time. The Chiefs are perfectly happy to dink and dunk their way around the field, especially considering they can dink to an unstoppable Travis Kelce.
• If you’re looking for a statistical dividing line between the two clubs this regular season it is turnover differential. Eagles were +8. Chiefs were -3. What questions can we ask? Can the Eagles continue this trend of not turning it over? Can the Chiefs survive a turnover or two against this, the best opponent they have faced all season? How might an early turnover swing each team’s approach?
• This feels even, with two players capable of being game winners: Chris Jones (KC) and DeVonta Smith (PHI). If one of these two guys dominates, I think it swings the result. If neither dominates, I like the Chiefs narrowly.

Kansas City Chiefs 24, Philadelphia Eagles 21

Five fun bets for Super Bowl Sunday, and as always, the odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Coin Toss: Tails (+100)

Tails, it has been said, never fails. And if something never fails, why would you not place a wager on it?

Travis Kelce: First TD Scorer (+650)

How much explanation does this require? Kelce might be the best pass-catching tight end in the history of the league and he’s the favorite weapon of Patrick Mahomes. When they get down inside the red zone, Kelce is options one, two and three.

Jalen Hurts: Under 49.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

It’s been well over a month since Hurts has eclipsed fifty yards rushing, and he did so against the Bears on December 18th. Hurts is sort of an up-the-gut rusher, exploiting gaps left by interior DL. The Chiefs have some of the best players in the league in the interior of their DL. The Eagles will run the ball effectively, but not with the quarterback.

Chris Jones: Over 0.25 Sacks (-135)

Hard for me to imagine a scenario where Jones doesn’t get on the stat sheet. Not a ton of value here but you should be able to parlay it in some locations, perhaps with your choice to win the game on the money line.

DeVonta Smith: 125+ Receiving Yards and 1+ TD (+1000)

The odds are long for a reason. This is a long shot bet. But as someone who has earmarked Smith as a potential MVP of this game, I feel it’s worth a slight financial risk. $10 to win $110 sounds about right.

Player to Watch on the Philadelphia Eagles.

DeVonta Smith is one of my favorite players in the NFL. Here is what I wrote in the leadup to the 2021 NFL Draft:

I don’t get it.

I’m sure there are scouty/personnel types who will quibble at Smith’s measureables (oh no, he doesn’t weigh enough!) but when you watch him on the field, which is where he actually plays football, you see an NFL star.

In the modern NFL there are very few line-em-up-and-beat-the-corner wide receivers. The game is about matchups and Smith is a matchup nightmare. He’s the best wide receiver in this draft. He’s the best return man in this draft. He’s the best player in this draft.

This season, Smith had 95 catches for 1,196 yards and 7 touchdowns. He’s a star, but on a stacked roster, he’s not treated like one. The Super Bowl has a habit of changing the perception of a player and I think that’s about to happen with Smith. With the deep shots to A.J. Brown made more difficult by Chris Jones and the pass rush, expect Smith to devour the Chiefs underneath.

If the Eagles win the game, it will not surprise me to see Smith win the MVP.

The Number: 50.5.

Here are some things to consider when looking at that number.

• From Lineups.com: “…in 54 Super Bowls played [with an over/under], the total has gone over in 27 of them, and the total has gone under in… 27 of them.” The game itself offers no historical insight. This is a coin flip bet.
• Nobody likes to bet the under on Super Bowl Sunday. Who the hell wants to root for less points? But as Dannehy pointed out last week, these are superior pass rushes. And historically, in the Super Bowl, the great pass rush beats the great offense. (See: whenever the Giants and Pats met in a Super Bowl.)
• DBB considers Thanksgiving the line of demarcation for the NFL season. Before that day – a day in which I am reminded how much I love stuffing only to not eat it again for a year – a team’s form is rather inconsequential. Since that day:
  • Eagles are averaging 34.1 points per game with Jalen Hurts.
  • Eagles are allowing 19.4 points per game, albeit against some shockingly poor quarterbacks.
  • Chiefs are averaging 27.3 points per game.
  • Chiefs are allowing 19.6 points per game.

I like the loser of this game around 20 points. That means the winner needs to hit 31 for the over, and that signals the game as something of a blowout. Unlikely.

Bet the under. 

Player to Watch on the Kansas City Chiefs.

Orlando Brown Jr. is an interesting football player.

As left tackle for the Kansas City Chiefs, he has historically gotten off to slow starts but finished seasons as one of the more dominant tackles in the sport. It happened in 2021. It happened in 2022. And now he’s just weeks away becoming a filthy rich individual, with teams across the league desperate for offensive line help.

The Chiefs tagged Brown this past season. It is unlikely they would do that again. But what better opportunity for the player? Brown will square off against an historically elite pass rush with a hobbled quarterback behind him. If he keeps the pocket clean for Patrick Mahomes in February, he’ll be lining his pockets as one of the richest offensive linemen in the league history come March.

And there’s a team in Chicago that would gladly pay full freight.

The AFC Title Game pool report from PFWA Pool Reporter Ben Baby, who spoke with Referee Ron Torbert about those replayed third downs and the grounding call: pic.twitter.com/KdCYthw5KD

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 30, 2023

The four best teams in the NFL remain. That’s all we can ask for in the final weeks of an NFL season.

49ers at Eagles (-2.5), Over/Under 46.5

• Let’s look at some regular season rankings:
  • Yards per game: Eagles 3, Niners 5
  • Points per game: Eagles 3, Niners 6
  • Yards allowed per game: Niners 1, Eagles 2
  • Points allowed per game: Niners 1, Eagles 8
  • Opposing passer rating: Eagles 3, Niners 6
  • Sacks: Eagles 1, Niners 11
  • Interceptions: Niners T-1, Eagles T-4
  • Turnover differential: Niners 1, Eagles 3
• What do those stats show? There is no advantage in this game. It is going to be decided by a big play here, or a big play there, or a costly turnover at the wrong moment, or a brilliant special teams moment. I give the Eagles a slight edge at quarterback, and a slight edge for the home field. And that slight edge is reflected in my score prediction.
• Eagles 24, 49ers 23

Bengals (-1) at Chiefs, Over/Under 47.5

• The Chiefs had been favored in 14 consecutive postseason games, and the only reason they are not favored this week is because of the health of their quarterback. What will Patrick Mahomes look like Sunday evening? There is a strong chance we won’t know until the game kicks off, and that makes it near-impossible to predict with any semblance of certainty.
• Joe Burrow’s postseason stats: 5-1, 68.1% completion, 1,556 yards, 8 TDs, 2 INTS, 98.4 rating. Against the best competition, Burrow is at his best. Is he the best quarterback in the sport?
• With a hobbled Mahomes, I don’t think the Bengals are the better team. I think they are the significantly better team. So…
• Bengals 31, Chiefs 20

Due to my relationships within the Chicago Bears organization, I have essentially kept DBB out of the Team President hiring process. But here are a few thoughts:

• Ted Phillips has been planning this retirement for nearly two years. George McCaskey convinced him to stay on a bit longer than he originally intended as the Arlington Heights situation developed.
• Ted had zero interest in overseeing the move. For years Ted has been communicating the team’s concerns to the city re: Soldier Field and for years he’s been ignored. The city never believed the Bears would leave the lakefront. Now, they’re panicked and proposing billion dollars of renovations.
• George stating that Poles and Eberflus reported to him, and not Ted, was theatre. Ted was still running the building. George is the owner, but he doesn’t run anything. He’s a fan.
• Bears have not hidden their love for the ballpark the Vikings built, and that was a huge factor in the Warren hire. Warren was enthusiastic about the move in his interviews, understanding the financial ramifications of a new building on team property.
• At the onset of the process, ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips was the front runner for the position, with many in the building seeing him as a foregone conclusion. But the Bears had a process and Warren emerged in that process.