• The Bears just played a terrible Cardinals defense and scored nine points. Do we expect them to be significantly better simply by playing at home? Is DJ Moore going to suddenly start caring more?
• Pats are among the league’s worst pass rushing units, registering only 16 sacks thus far. Again, does that matter right now? It seems unlikely this OL can hold up for four quarters against anyone.
• The secret stat behind the Bears even being 4-4? They are +7 in turnover differential. That puts them fifth in the league behind Buffalo (+11), Detroit (+11), Pittsburgh (+10) and the LA Chargers (+9). This is a different season for the Bears if their turnover differential is closer to league average. (The Pats are -3, and this is a point to watch on Sunday. If the Pats don’t turn it over, these teams are far more evenly matched that folks realize.)
• The only team converting third downs at a worse clip than the Bears is the Browns. Does this have any relevance to Sunday? I’m not sure.
• It will not surprise me at all if the Patriots win this game. But I just don’t think the Bears are that bad. So, I’m predicting them to reach an incredibly tedious 5-4, prolonging the Eberflus conversation another week.

Chicago Bears 16, New England Patriots 13

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

A Potentially Historic Sunday at DBB

I used to write an awful lot about football around here, but that was at a time when there were fewer people saturating the market (with mostly boring material). Now I write about Sidney Lumet, and one-act game reactions. Why? Because no one else does that. And if this isn’t going to make me rich, it’s certainly going to make me smile.

Since the fall of 2000, I have missed one Bears game. 24 years. One game. I was in Ireland and spent more than an hour at a pay phone, as my buddy Josh relayed to me the play-by-play of a Bears victory over the Vikings in 2005. I’ve been late to a grandfather’s funeral. I’ve watched the Bears from a Paris hotel in the middle of the night. If they’re playing, I’m watching, and it’s been that way for two and a half decades.

This Sunday, at the Jacob Burns Film Center in Pleasantville, NY, I’ll be presenting one of my favorite films, the 1957 classic Sweet Smell of Success. It will start at 11 AM, with my introduction, followed by a twenty-minute lecture by yours truly and a Q&A. I won’t be leaving the theater until around 2 PM. There is a bar in Pleasantville that will be showing the Bears v. Patriots, and honestly, I will more than likely hustle over there for the end of Q2 and second half. But why I will do that is becoming something of a mystery.

I was so excited about this team a few weeks ago that I went to Washington D.C. to see them. Now, I’m not despondent or dejected. I’m apathetic. I’ve seen this story before, many times. It’s still boring. You want me to use this space to talk about New England’s turnover differential or third-down conversion percentage? You want me to pick three Bears under pressure? Why? You want me to keep a window on my phone open during the Q&A and double-time it to Foley’s on Sunday? I may do that! But it’ll be more instinct than excitement.

I’ll make a prediction tomorrow, and I’ll probably predict the Bears to win. But honestly, it’s more interesting if they lose! If they lose, there’s something to write about Monday morning, something to talk about. Clearly this structure is not working and it’s not going to work. Something has to change. But this is the Chicago Bears. Something always has to change.

Sunday, at least for me, will be a change.

It is a season drifting away. Again.

• This was supposed to be a season where the Bears transitioned to a winning culture. Instead, according to Adam Jahns, they are once again on the brink of a coaching change.
• Brad Biggs suggests it is time for the Bears to consider making a play caller change on offense. He’s not wrong, but the broader point is Matt Eberflus will certainly make that move as soon as he feels his future is in jeopardy. Does he feel that pressure now?
• One of the strangest developments of the 2024 season has been the pathetic and inexcusable attitude of DJ Moore. Sunday, despite various internet excuses, he walked off the field mid-play. His head coach had the opportunity to defend him. He declined. These two men won’t be in the same locker room much longer.
• Drake Maye v. Caleb Williams should have been a fun storyline in Chicago this week. It is, in Massachusetts.
• Flus trails only Doug Pederson in the “next coach fired” odds, and it is historically a bad bet. The Bears have never fired a coach in-season. But if the Bears lose, at home, to a two-win Pats team with a rookie quarterback, how can there not be serious conversations about moving on at Halas Hall?

In Glendale, we learned

a game can tell a story.

A tragic drama.

Lifeless and listless,

the Bears quit on their head coach,

ending their season.

When do you move on?

When do you know it’s over?

Has that time not come?

Deidre and Colleen are seated in their golf start, waiting for the group ahead of them to tee off at Talking Stick. Deidre smokes cigar. Colleen sips a gin and tonic. It is 6:30 AM.

Deidre: It’s a dry heat.

Colleen: Then why am I drenched at six o’clock in the morning.

Deidre: I hate that word.

Colleen: What word?

Deidre: Drenched.

Colleen: What word would you prefer I use?

Deidre: I don’t care.

Colleen: Sweaty? Saturated? Moistened?

Deidre: Towels are moistened, not human.

Colleen: I’ve been moistened.

Beat.

Deidre: How do you know?

Colleen: How do I know what?

Deidre: When it’s time to go, when it’s time to stop doing something.

Colleen: What are you talking about?

Deidre: We do things, human being. We do things because we’re supposed to, because that’s what you do. But how do you know when to stop doing a thing?

Colleen: You’re talking about Eberflus.

Deidre: I’m talking about Eberflus.

Colleen: It’s time.

Deidre: Is it?

Colleen: Time.

Deidre: Okay.

Beat.

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So, what is going to happen on Sunday?

• This strikes me as the kind of Caleb game with a gaudy stat line. 29-36, 325 yards, 2-3 touchdowns. The Bears know they have to come out of the box flinging it, and they will.
• The Bears will focus on containing Kyler Murray in the run game and limit him to under 20 yards (and one first down) on the ground.
• Trey McBride, Cardinals TE, is coming off his best game of the season and I think that will continue Sunday. I think the Cardinals will target McBride the way Jacksonville did Evan Engram early; consistent underneath stuff to keep the pressure off Murray.
• After watching how effective De’Von Achane was in the passing game against Arizona last week, I can’t see a scenario where D’Andre Swift is not targeted multiple times in the passing game. I’ll have some serious question for the coaching staff if he’s not.
• Caleb has been sacked 22 times. Kyler has been sacked 11 times. If you’re looking for the most glaring statistical discrepancy between these two clubs, there it is. If the Bears can keep Caleb upright, they’ll win this game, pulling away in the fourth quarter.

Chicago Bears 30, Arizona Cardinals 20

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

Welcome to the Matt Eberflus Game

So, as many of you might have realized, I took a step back from the “insider” stuff when returning to school. That kind of work requires diligence, dedication and most importantly, nerve. You have to be willing to go with information when you trust it, and then sweat it out until it becomes reality (while the rest of Bears media peppers you with texts). The “sweat it out” part was not for me.

But on the drive from DC to Newark Monday, and throughout the day Tuesday, I texted everyone, trying to gauge what the league-wide consensus was on Matt Eberflus. Here is what I gathered in that informal survey.

– Eberflus is an exceptionally well-liked man in the league.

– Said one personnel guy: “Never make decisions after a Hail Mary loss.” (And he’s been through a bad one.)

– Said one scout: “The Ben Johnson/Breer leak was interesting timing. Johnson smells blood in the water.” I had to sit with this text a bit. Is Ben Johnson really thinking about his NEXT job in October, while being the OC of a team that looks like the overwhelming favorite to make the Super Bowl from the NFC?

– Said one former personnel guy, now a TV guy: “These next few games are very important.”

And this last comment is where I’ve landed on Eberflus. I don’t think it particularly matters if he’s the coach in 2025 or not. Do I think they can win with him? Yes. I think he’s becoming an excellent in-game adjuster, which was his primary flaw a year ago. But there’s not enough positive with Flus that I believe he’d be a major loss on the sideline should they replace him, and I don’t think Caleb would be all that flustered by a system change on offense, especially if they move to an offensive head coach.

But if Flus wants to stave off calls for his job, I think he must win these next two games. I’m not saying he’ll be fired either way, but the calls for his job will persist all season long if he’s not 6-3.

Three Thoughts on the Cardinals

• What is Arizona? Who knows? They are technically in first place (three-way tie) with a point differential of -27. They seem like an entirely different team every week I watch them.
• The Bears have a distinct advantage seeing Kyle Murray the week after Jayden Daniels, as Murray’s legs are the most threatening thing about the Cardinal offense. If the Bears contain Murray, they’ll contain Arizona.
• By every metric – especially pressures, sacks and opposing passer rating – this is one of the worst pass defenses in the league. (Washington was not, by the way, and I tried to tell people that in las week’s preview.)

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The Bears are 4-3, and in last place in the NFC North.

The Arizona Cardinals are 4-4, and in first place in the NFC West.

The NFC is the wild, wild west, so it makes poetic sense that a contest to define the Bears’ season will take place just about 195 miles from the O.K. Corral.

The Hail Maryland is over. It’s in the past. So is the dismal effort the Bears delivered for three quarters of their loss in Landover, a stadium that provides perhaps the worst sports viewing atmosphere outside of the swamp in New Jersey. (I have chosen not to write about my time in Northwest Stadium. Nobody wants to read that.) When I analyzed this three-game stretch coming out of the bye, it seemed imperative for the Bears to go 2-1, splitting their road games and beating the Patriots at home. That is still on the table. If the Bears can finish this stretch at 6-3, tournament relevance in January is still very much on the table. If they are 5-4, those questions become more difficult to answer.

Thus, it is not difficult to position Sunday’s game in Arizona as the most important the Bears have played thus far in 2024. How they start, especially after Washington, will be scrutinized. The offensive and defensive game-planning going in, especially after Washington, will be scrutinized. How Matt Eberflus manages the game, especially after Washington, will be scrutinized. Every major contributor, especially those with big contracts like DJ Moore and Montez Sweat, will be scrutinized. Tyrique Stevenson will be…very scrutinized.

And that’s what makes Sunday fun. The leaves are changing. The air is chilling. The calendar will have flipped from October to November. New York City will be celebrating the NYC Marathon, its best day of the year. All the talk of meaningless preseason games and hitless camp practices ends. The Bears have a football game they must win if they have designs on more than just scoreboard watching a seven seed after Christmas. Everything will be magnified.

Can the 2024 version of this club hold up under that scrutiny?

They want me angry.

Filled with the same rage as them.

But it’s just football.

As I stood in Northwest Stadium, coming to the realization that the Bears had allowed an unthinkable Hail Maryland and lost a game they had no business winning in the first place, I wasn’t angry. Was I disappointed? Of course. I don’t think I need to use this space to present my credentials as a Bears fan. That resume has been thoroughly vetted. I wasn’t angry because football doesn’t make me angry anymore. And quite frankly, if it’s capable of making you angry, you shouldn’t watch it.

I’m 42 years old. I got a theater company with a thriving education program. I got a new play and musical I think are going to be really interesting when we get them on stage. I have a great relationship, amazing friends, two cool cats, an incredible community and yes, this website, which has endured since 2005 and given me more than I could have ever imagined. Oh, and I am also pursuing a PhD that is about as rigorous as one could imagine, swallowing up every available minute of my time. I don’t share all of this to brag about my life. (Although it is pretty good, aside from a wonky back the last month.) I share all of this to say that IS my life. Those things are me. If I’m going to get angry it’s going to be in support of those endeavors and for those people.

The Bears aren’t me. And quite frankly, I’m thrilled about that.

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