Why do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.

The Injury Bummer

If Jayden Daniels doesn’t play Sunday, and the oddsmakers seem to believe he won’t, it is a massive bummer for the entirety of the NFL. The Washington Commanders (nee Redskins) and Chicago Bears are two of the proudest franchises in the sport, and the league is better when both are winning. Roger Goodell and the boys were going to use this game to promote and celebrate two players – Daniels and Caleb Williams – they expect to be the face of the league for the next decade. And there was a strong chance Bears at Commanders, kicking off at 4:25 PM ET, would be the highest rated day game all season.

Now, who knows? The game is still important. The rating will still be solid. But if Daniels doesn’t play, it loses half of its luster, half of its star power. And personally, I was excited to see both of them in-person, on the same field, and paid a hefty price for that honor. Marcus Mariota’s name on the marquee doesn’t create lines at the box office.

Three Thoughts on the Commanders

• What has been sneaky about the Commander resurgence is not the offense; that has been well covered in the national media. But the Commanders are 15th in points allowed per game, and 16th in yards allowed per game. That might not seem impressive, but this was arguably the worst defense in the league in 2023. Advancing to the middle of the pack is a huge leap in one season, and a testament to the coaching work of Dan Quinn. This is not a good defense. But it’s not a bad one, either.
• If Daniels does not play Sunday, expect the Commanders to rely heavily on the underrated Brian Robinson. Robinson is rushing to 4.7 YPC, and has 6 touchdowns, but has only been given 20+ carries once this season. That’s likely to change Sunday.
• Where has Washington been far better than Chicago? Offensively, on third down. The Commanders convert at a rate of 48.8%, ranking them third in the league. The Bears are much further down the table, converting 35.4% of their opportunities. Could be a game-within-the-game to pay attention to on Sunday.

Lumet VII: Lumet and the Police

Football is taking center stage so I will bypass Lumet VI, which was to focus on his collaborations with Sean Connery and general work abroad. Four films should not be ignored, however, in this regard. The Hill (1965) is a brilliant moral tale, reflective of Lumet’s own conflicted time in the service. The Anderson Tapes (1971) is Lumet’s minor-yet-noteworthy entry into the paranoia cinema of the 1970s. The Offence (1973) is a complicated revelation, especially for Ian Bannen’s brilliant turn as the potential killer. And Murder on the Orient Express (1974) is a cinematic tour de force, another breathtaking example of Lumet’s genius for shooting in the confined space.

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Audibles used to be reserved for just links involving the Chicago Bears, but today we’ll branch out beyond the Bears, to the entire league.

• After two games, fans wanted Shane Waldron fires and D’Andre Swift stoned to death. The great Adam Jahns gave the Bears OC proper credit for his excellent work through six games. Kevin Fishbain adds his praise for the running back. I’ve been arguing for years that the first month of the NFL season is no longer relevant when it comes to team form. There is no preseason, and camp is a joke. September is simply about figuring out what your club is and stacking wins.
• Brad Biggs does a nice job contextualizing the Chicago Bears as they come out of their bye week. There are three major tests approaching: continuing Caleb’s growth, beating the weaker teams, and holding their own against the best division in football by a wide margin.
• Mary Kay Cabot on a potential Myles Garrett trade: “Of course, a team can never say never when it comes to trades, and they’d probably at least answer the phone. But unless someone makes them a blockbuster offer that they can’t refuse, it’s not in the cards to part with one of the premier players in the history of the club.”
• Fun interview on Da Site, with Rome Odunze revealing to Lauren Screeden how he got his name.
• Kevin Warren continues to argue for a new stadium on the lakefront, and taxpayer funding will be on the ballot this November. Any citizen endorsing taxpayer money for a sports facility has lost the plot entirely. Every NFL franchise is worth (at minimum) $4 billion, and yet every time a new building is “required” these billionaires walk into the public square, palms facing the sky.

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Bill and Jim sit on a park bench, holding cups of coffee acquired from their local diner. Coffee, to them, is a ritual, an experience to be savored. It would not be uncommon for them to nurse those cups of coffee over the span of many hours. They don’t see the coffee as getting cold. They see that as the natural progression of things. From hot, to lukewarm, to cold. That’s simply what life offers. 

Both men have thick Chicago accents.

__________

Bill: What is it the man said about pornography?

Jim: I know it when I see it.

Bill: He wasn’t wrong.

Jim: No, he was not.

Bill: You ever wonder about birds?

Jim: Birds?

Bill: Birds.

Jim: No, I never wonder about birds.

Bill: I wonder about birds.

Jim: What is it you wonder?

Bill: I wonder if they know what’s going on.

Jim: Going on where?

Bill: Here. Over there. All around.

Jim: You mean, do the birds know we’re two guys having a coffee and a conversation?

Bill: If you want.

Jim: No, I doubt they do.

Bill: So you think the whole world is just random to birds?

Jim: I think that’s a fair assessment.

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VIKINGS -2.5 v. Lions

The early part of the season has belonged to the 5-0 Minnesota Vikings, the most surprising team in the NFL. But if they lose Sunday, Minnesota will relinquish the top spot in the NFC North and suddenly be thrust into the middle of the best division in the league.

Coming into this season, Detroit was the betting favorite to find themselves representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. Last Sunday was bittersweet for the club; they thoroughly humiliated Dallas but lost one of the best defensive players in the league.

Early season NFL games don’t get much better than this. I think the Lions make a statement and realign the conference stars.

Lions 34, Vikings 24

PACKERS -2.5 v. Texans

Matt LaFleur has masterfully kept the Packers above water, even with a temporarily injured quarterback and a temperamental wide receiver. Through six weeks of the season, he’s my coach of the year.

The Texans are 5-1 and look like they’ll have the AFC South locked down well before Macy’s inflates the Snoopy balloon. They bring to Green Bay one of the league’s best pass rushes, but Green Bay might have the best pass protection in the league. If Houston doesn’t win on the edge, they don’t win.

Packers 26, Texans 20

Three More Bets

• STEELERS +1.5 over Jets. Russell Wilson is not an upgrade over Justin Fields, but I don’t think the Jets can block Pittsburgh. Prediction: Tyrod Taylor sees action Sunday night.
• Panthers at COMMANDERS (Over 51.5). If you told me the Commanders scored 50 in this game, I am not sure I would argue with you. Commanders can score in bunches and can’t defend the pass. Feels like a 37-27 kind of game.
• BILLS -8.5 over Titans. Bills v. Jets was one of the worst football games I have ever watched, but the Bills must be flying high after winning a road game wherein they allowed a Hail Mary and missed a bunch of kicks. With the division now firmly in their grasp, they roll at home against Will Levis, the funniest quarterback in the league.

Mister Eberflus,

chills out in his jacuzzi.

Glass of red, in-hand.

Rookie of the year.

People say it is Jayden’s.

Caleb says, “Hold up.”

Hope in Chicago.

An uncommon emotion.

It ain’t leaving town.

Tomorrow: Predictions for the weekend’s bye week action.

The Bears are good. But what else is happening around the NFL?

• It is amazing how many big plays have been derailed this season by illegal shift and illegal formation calls. Every game seems to have one, and this was clearly a league focus. My only question is…why? Why is this a league focus? Do we really want big plays being negated because the right tackle is a foot or two off the line of scrimmage? Do we really care if two men motion at the same time for a brief moment? I’d love to see one NFL game played wherein the refs only throw flags for egregious, play-changing penalties. The viewing experience would be far greater.
• I have not weighed in on Tom Brady’s work as an analyst because I hadn’t given him a full game. Sunday, I did. And two things stood out to me. (1) There is no discernible style. Brady doesn’t have a signature approach to the job; he just talks. (2) I still believe Brady’s best role is in the studio. FOX should clear out that antiquated studio and give the entire stage to Brady. Let him get deep into the Xs and Os and show off his football acumen.
• Concussion protocol is certainly an improving, but the NFL needs to insist upon a mandatory two-game IR stint for any player receiving that official diagnosis.
• All four NFC North teams are in the top nine when it comes to points allowed per game.

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Before the season, I broke up the Bears schedule into three distinct segments:

• Segment One: Weeks 1-6, leading into the bye.
• Segment Two: Weeks 8-10
• Segment Three: Weeks 11-18, wherein six of their final eight games are against division opponents.

Segment one was a success. Could the Bears have beaten both the Texans and the Colts? Absolutely. But they also could have lost to the Titans and Rams. 4-2 is a fair representation of the performance we’ve seen from this team over the first six weeks of the season, and 4-2 gives the Bears an opportunity to be playing knockout football in January.

The next evaluative moment in this season will come at the end of Sunday, November 10th. (For those of you not on Twitter, I’ll be presenting one of my favorite films, Sweet Smell of Success, at the Jacob Burns Film Center in Pleasantville, NY that morning.) After these next three games, the Bears will have played (essentially) half their schedule, nine games, and will be able to establish clear win/loss goals for the second and far more difficult half of their schedule.

So, how do these matchups look?

Sunday 10/27 – @ Washington Commanders

General feeling: Toss-up.

The Commanders have been one of the real surprises of the 2024 season, mostly due to their rookie quarterback’s inspiring play. (The Bears fans on Twitter that seem to resent the success of Jayden Daniels need to grow up.) But Washington still doesn’t play much defense and, with two weeks to prepare, the Bears should be expected to (at worst) make this a shootout.

[Side note: I will be in attendance for this game, which essentially guarantees something abnormal will take place.]

Sunday 11/3 (NYC Marathon Sunday!) – @ Arizona Cardinals

General feeling: Lean Bears.

Arizona is a feisty team, but they are awful defensively, and that building in the desert will be at least half transplants from Chicago.

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The Bears are 4-2. And as they head into their bye week, one thing is certainly clear: a season, a real season, is possible.

Not that entering the bye week at .50o would have precluded the Bears from having a strong finish to this campaign and fighting for a postseason berth. It would not have, especially with the way their rookie quarterback is playing. But 4-2 puts the team on the front foot, places them squarely in the playoff conversation, and gives them a significant amount of momentum as they try and get their secondary healthy over this next fortnight.

What is important for the team right now?

• The aforementioned secondary health. The Bears finished their game Sunday without Brisker, Stevenson and Gordon on the field. That is not a path to sustainable success, especially with the passing attacks of Washington, Arizona and Green Bay peppering the next month.
• Sort the offensive line. Is this offensive line going to be a top unit in 2024? No. That’s obvious. But the Bears need to decide on their best five, which will hopefully involve a returning Ryan Bates, and start to develop serious chemistry within that unit.
• Continue offensive momentum. The quarterback is playing brilliantly. The running game is coming around. The pass catchers are all getting involved. Shane Waldron’s offense has been humming as of late and continued progress should be expected as the team uses this bye week to correct mistakes.
• Survey the trade market. Ryan Poles has not been shy when it comes to in-season trades and the Bears have an explicit need on the defensive edge. Are any non-contenders willing to make a deal? Does any team actually believe they are a non-contender?

The stage has been set. Now, the play’s the thing.