Mock drafts are a mostly useless practice, but people like them and they’re fun to do. So here is my first attempt at a 2016 mock draft. Keep a few things in mind:

• I’m not a scout. I don’t pretend to be a scout. I’ll never pretend to be a scout. But I do read a lot and listen to a lot of scouts. I have about five people whose opinions I trust more than others. I typically lean toward people who were once in the league.

• Don’t say anyone “won’t” go anywhere. Nobody knows who is going where. Even if a team directly came out and said who they were going to take, we couldn’t believe it because they lie more times than not.

• In a First Draft Podcast with Mel Kiper and Todd McShay, Adam Schefter was adamant that three quarterbacks were going in the top 10. I’ve never heard Schefty more certain of anything so I believe him.

• A lot of these are going to be wrong. Of course they are, we haven’t even hit free agency yet. Even after free agency, mock drafts are going to be wrong. But, here goes…

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Editor’s Note: I will not watch any of the Combine. My thoughts on the charade are well known. So thankfully, Andrew is around.

I don’t care what anybody says, the NFL combine is a valuable part of the predraft process. It has become popular to understate the value of the NFL Combine but if it didn’t matter, teams wouldn’t send every scout and coach they have. The common theme amongst former scouts is that the workouts are mostly to confirm what they have seen on tape. A lot of times, however, it makes them re-watch the tape and, sometimes changes their views on certain players. We, as fans, and NFL teams are going to get a lot of valuable information this week.

The best skill position players in the league are almost always athletic freaks. Two years ago, Aaron Donald went from being a guy mocked in the third round to a consensus top-15 pick just by putting on a show at the combine. There are certainly exceptions to the rule, but not many.

The elite talents are usually obvious on tape, but the numbers are about more than separating the elite. NFL teams have minimums or bench marks that they look for at each position. Just last year, Greg Gabriel deemed current Baltimore Ravens tight end Maxx Williams as being not good enough to be selected in the first round seconds after he ran the 40-yard dash, claiming Williams needed to break into the 4.6-range to be drafted in the first round. Greg was right.

The two most important parts of the combine are the physicals and the interviews, neither of which we get to see. But there’s still valuable information that we can learn.

Here are a few things to watch for the Bears this year:

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There is no question Matt Forte lost a step and little disagreement about the Bears decision to let him go. But the reality of the situation is that by exiling Forte the club has created a big hole at the running back position. Forte, even after injury and the emergence of Jeremy Langford, was getting nearly 60 percent of the carries and was the team’s best back by every conceivable measurement.

Langford is most known for his speed and explosiveness but Forte led him in runs of fifteen yards or more by the staggering total of 10-3. Ka’Deem Carey is known for running hard and breaking tackles but — according to Pro Football Focus — Forte averaged more yards after contact (2.24-2.05) and broke a tackle once every 9 touches. Carey did once every 9.2 touches.

Even if you were to combine Langford and Carey into one back, they weren’t as good as Forte. Langford averaged 1.76 yards after contact and broke a tackle once every 17 touches and Carey has never had a run longer than 15 yards. (He’s had runs longer than 10 yards just twice.) Forte also averaged about a half-yard more per carry overall than the other two combined.

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Potential Bargains

None of these guys are sure bets, but they shouldn’t cost much. They may have injury baggage or low production but the potential is there. The Bears hit on a player in this category last year with Tracy Porter. They missed with Alan Ball.

Tyvon Branch, S, Kansas City

Pros: Had a really strong finish, playing a lot for the Chiefs over the second half of last season. Has been a good player for most of his career, registering more than 70 tackles four times. Vic Fangio has had a lot of luck getting the most out of safeties. Branch won’t turn 30 until next December.

Cons: Played a combined five games in 2013 and 2014. Doesn’t have the kind of ball skills the Bears need with just five career interceptions. Was destroyed by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last year. Might just be a rotational safety at this point in his career.

Jermaine Kearse, WR, Seattle

Pros: Good hands, athletic, solid after the catch and a good run-blocker. Only 25 and has never really been featured, playing for a running team. Has played well in a number of very big games.

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Building Blocks

These are the guys to watch. In his postseason presser, Ryan Pace said the team wasn’t going to spent big on one guy, instead spreading their money out. That could mean multiple players from this tier.

Malik Jackson, DL, Denver

Pros: He gained much more recognition in the playoffs as one of the best pass rushing and run-stopping defensive linemen in the league. Jackson constantly drew double teams, freeing others up for sacks.

Cons: The draft figures to be strong along the defensive line this year and Jackson is likely looking for a big pay day — which could explain why the Broncos extended Derek Wolfe instead. With Eddie Golman already in place, the Bears could sign a significantly cheaper veteran and develop linemen behind him.

Jaye Howard, DL, Kansas City

Pros: A good athlete who is really tough against the run. Showed some pass-rush ability. Dominated Vlad Ducasse and Hroniss Grasu. Would immediately be the team’s second best defensive lineman.

Cons: Kind of a one-year wonder. Played less than half of his team’s snaps every other year. Kansas City usually took him off the field in passing situations. Committed eight penalties last year. If Jackson and Wilkerson get huge contracts, Howard’s price could be driven up. The question needs to be asked again: Do you pay for a player, or draft and develop behind him?

Danny Trevathan, LB, Denver

Pros: Instinctive and rangy, Trevathan has been a key to the Broncos defense this year after missing most of the 2014 season. He has excelled in coverage and shows really good instincts. Rated by Pro Football Focus as one of the best tacklers in the league.

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The Bears showed last year they weren’t afraid to spend in free agency and the expectation is that they will again. The Denver Broncos are coming off of a Super Bowl win largely because of the contributions of free agents DeMarcus Ware, T.J. Ward and Emmanuel Sanders. The Bears have over $50 million to spend in free agency and could have close to $70 million after cuts.

Here is part one of a three-part series examining potential targets on the free agency market.

Franchise Players

This is a small list because great players don’t reach free agency very often. In fact, it’s unlikely any of these three players will make it, but until they’re officially not available, they have to be on the list. These are the guys a team can build their defense around. Of course the con for all of them is the price, but you pay a premium for premium players.

Von Miller, LB, Denver

Pros: Miller is one of the best defensive players in the league. As he showed in the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl, Miller can completely dominate with the best combination of speed and power in the league.

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• The fact that John Fox had a large say in drafting the roster and that he and his staff were responsible for developing the defensive talent on the Broncos should make you feel good. A lot has been written about them signing free agents from the Broncos, but they’re just as likely to try to draft the next Danny Trevathan, Brandon Marshall or Malik Jackson.

• The one thing to take from the playoffs as it pertains to the Bears is they just need more great players. Look at the big plays that have been made throughout the playoffs, they’ve typically come from each team’s best player. The Bears don’t have those guys. Getting them is the first step. The next step is getting them to play their best on the big stage.

• It’s too early to get overly excited about what the Bears “need” when it comes to the draft. A lot will change between now and then. As of this time last year, you wouldn’t have guessed the Bears would be taking Kevin White with the seventh pick with the duo of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Hell, you maybe didn’t even know who Kevin White was.

• Draft hype is too crazy right now. Noah Spence went from being a fringe first-round pick at best to being mocked in the top 10. He’s a talented player but he was going against a bunch of untalented offensive tackles at the Senior Bowl. That doesn’t tell us anything.

After the jump is a Q&A I did with Jeff Risdon. Risdon is an NFL and NFL Draft Writer at RealGM, an analyst for Draft Breakdown, works on air at ESPN 961 and is the editor for SideLionReport. He spent last week in Mobile for the Senior Bowl. He’s also Lions fan, but at least he’s not a Packers fan.

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GREEN BAY PACKERS

It’s going to take more than the return of Jordy Nelson to cure what ails the Packers.

The fact they played the Cardinals close led to a lot of confusion about what kind of team they were. But in their last four games, the Cards beat the Packers twice and were blown out by the Panthers and Seahawks. The Packers finished 5-7 and were a Hail Mary away from going 4-8. They were blown out by Denver, Carolina and Arizona. They just aren’t that good of a team and I’m not sure if they can recover.

Nelson was underrated. Now he’s teetering on being overrated. He’s 31 years old and coming off of a major knee injury. He’s good. He’s not Calvin Johnson.

The truth is this. Despite some miracles, Aaron Rodgers didn’t play very well.

We’ve all heard the rumors that Rodgers doesn’t like coach Mike McCarthy. He wasn’t happy when McCarthy took the playcalling over again, demoting his buddy Tom Clements and limiting his ability to audible. Rodgers took shots at McCarthy weekly and it was largely unnoticed.

But it isn’t just Rodgers who doesn’t seem to be getting along with his boss. It was reported a few weeks ago that McCarthy is “fed up” with General Manager Ted Thompson not going after free agents.

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The following is part two of a three part wrap-up of the division from DBB contributor Andrew Dannehy.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The common theme with the Vikings is they’re an up-and-coming team but that could be more perception than reality.

The Vikings remind me a lot of the team they had almost a decade ago when they won the NFC North with a 10-6 record. Adrian Peterson was great and their defense was really good, but they didn’t have a quarterback and without a quarterback it’s hard to see them staying on top for long.

The 2008 team upgraded with Brett Favre, which was enough to win them the NFC North again and make them Super Bowl contenders, but I don’t see such an upgrade available to them this time around and they don’t seem to know they have a problem.

Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t make a lot of crippling mistakes. But he also can’t consistently make plays down the field. Will he improve? It’s certainly not a guarantee. Coming out of the draft, he was billed as a “finished product” and didn’t make a noticeable improvement from his rookie season to his second year. If he’s Alex Smith, that’s fine. But quarterbacks like Alex Smith don’t win championships.  Moving indoors next year should help hide his arm limitations.

Bridgewater is not their only issue.

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There was a changing of the guard in the NFC North this season, with the Vikings overtaking the Packers, but the future of the division remains in question. The following is part one of a three part wrap-up of the division.

DETROIT LIONS

The Lions 2015 season was considered a disappointment but it really shouldn’t have been. When they went 11-5 in 2014, they won close games at an unsustainable rate and lost their best player in free agency before this season (Suh). They finished 2015 with a 7-9 record – right around where they should’ve been.

They had to keep Jim Caldwell. It isn’t just that the Lions were one desperation heave from finishing 7-1. The Lions might have been the best team in the division over the final eight games. They finished 6-2 with a point differential of plus-54, both best in the division.

The issue was they didn’t hire their new GM (Bob Quinn from the Pats) until late and the head coach candidates were winding down. Even if they fired Caldwell and replaced him, the new coach would have a challenge filling out his staff. Keeping Caldwell was the only logical choice, but it could hurt them in 2016.

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