Pressure Frequency
As we already noted in the first part of this series, Caleb Williams was sacked 68 times this year, the highest value in the NFL by a wide margin. So today, I want to try and figure out who is to blame for that, which will help give insight into how the Bears can fix it going forward.
The table below shows how frequently every position was blamed for giving up pressure on the QB. Williams’ stats are shown, with context provided by giving his rank compared to 34 NFL QBs with 250+ pass attempts, plus the best, average, and worst marks for that sample. Any values in the top 25% are highlighted in green, while those in the bottom 25% are highlighted in red. All data comes from Pro Football Focus (PFF) unless otherwise noted.
(If you can’t view the full figure, click on it to open in a new tab. Sorry about formatting issues.)
A few thoughts:
- First, there is a good bit of red and no green. That gives us a general starting point that this was not a problem with any 1-2 positions to blame, but instead a situation with no clear strengths and a lot of weaknesses.
- With that said, it might be something of a surprise to learn that there were 11 QBs who were pressured more frequently than Williams last year, given that there was only 1 who was sacked at a higher rate than him.
- That is because Williams did a terrible job of letting pressures turn into sacks. Nearly 28% of his pressures became sacks, which was over 9% higher than the NFL average and the 2nd worst mark in the sample.
- Williams also brought a lot of pressure on himself, but it’s worth noting that this is not, in and of itself, a death knell, as Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, and Jalen Hurts were among the QBs blamed for pressure more frequently than Williams.
- Those four, however, were much better at keeping those pressures from turning into sacks. Patrick Mahomes was at 17%, Lamar Jackson 11%, Brock Purdy 14%, and Jalen Hurts 22%.
- The bottom five QBs in pressure to sack rate were Will Levis, Williams, Baker Mayfield, Gardner Minshew, and Jameis Winston. That’s not a list you want to be on, so that is one huge area of growth needed for Williams going forward. He needs to get better at getting rid of the ball when under pressure instead of taking sacks.
- For the OL, I want to focus less on specific positions and more on the fact that OL injuries played a huge role in protection struggles.
- By and large, Chicago’s starting OL was adequate.
- Tackles Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright gave up pressure every 18 snaps, right at the NFL average for OTs.
- Guards Teven Jenkins and Matt Pryor gave up pressure every 26 snaps, better than the NFL average of 22 for guards.
- Center Coleman Shelton gave up pressure every 26 snaps, worse than the NFL average of 32 for centers.
- None of those starter values are particularly great, but they are all perfectly solid. The problem came from the backups.
- Chicago’s backups played a lot of pass protecting snaps (280 at OT, 366 at OG) and gave up pressure nearly twice as frequently as the starters (every 14 snaps for guards, every 9 snaps for tackles).
- This had a huge overall impact on the offense, which averaged nearly a full yard/play less when one backup OL was on the field than when Chicago had the full starting OL in the game.
- The Bears will have 3-4 new starters on the OL this offseason, but it is equally important that they also have 2-3 backup OL capable of stepping in and not being terrible.
- By and large, Chicago’s starting OL was adequate.
- Chicago has now added a few new starters, so it’s worth taking a look at their past performance:
- Jonah Jackson gave up a pressure every 20 snaps in 2024, which was actually the best mark of his career. From 2020-23, he was in the pressure every 18-19 snaps range every year, so he should be viewed as a sub-par pass protector.
- Joe Thuney, on the other hand, is excellent in pass protection. He gave up a pressure every 27 snaps in 2024 – which included playing about 1/4 of his snaps at the more difficult OT position – and has given up a pressure every 31 snaps overall from 2021-24.
- Drew Dalman is a bit more of a see what you want to see situation. He was excellent in 2024, giving up a pressure every 30 pass blocking snaps, but he struggled to the tune of a pressure every 19 snaps across 2022-23. There are two main ways you could interpret this:
- Dalman improved in 2024, and should be expected to play at that level going forward.
- 2024 was a fluke (complete with a small sample size – he only played 9 games due to injury), and Dalman should be expected to struggle some in pass protection in Chicago.
- So, who do we blame for Chicago’s sack problem in 2024: Caleb Williams or the offensive line? This isn’t an either/or question. The answer is both.
- Overall, PFF blamed Caleb Williams for 17 sacks, the highest mark in the NFL. Windy City Gridiron’s Lester Wiltfong Jr., who breaks down every sack the Bears allow in his sackwatch series, had him at a comparable 15.5 sacks.
- Once again, this is not a stat that, in and of itself, means you can’t be successful. PFF had Brock Purdy at 15 sacks, Bo Nix 13, and Patrick Mahomes and Jayden Daniels both 11.
- On the OL side of things, PFF blamed the Bears’ OL for 37 sacks, which was the highest mark in the NFL and 15 higher than the average of 22.
- Overall, PFF blamed Caleb Williams for 17 sacks, the highest mark in the NFL. Windy City Gridiron’s Lester Wiltfong Jr., who breaks down every sack the Bears allow in his sackwatch series, had him at a comparable 15.5 sacks.
Having the QB responsible for the most sacks paired with the OL responsible for the most sacks is a recipe for disaster, which is exactly what Chicago’s passing game was in 2024. Both Caleb Williams and the Bears’ OL need to show real improvement in this area to help the passing attack flourish.
Rookie History
To give some more context to Caleb’s numbers and what they might say about the future, I examined sack and pressure to sack rates for all 44 QBs who threw at least 250 passes as rookies since 2010. I then compared those numbers to year two of their careers. Those results can be seen in the table below (P2S = pressure to sack %, or what percent of pressures turned into sacks).
A few thoughts:
- There is basically no difference in sack rates or pressure to sack rates from rookie to sophomore campaigns for the overall sample, but there is a drastic difference for QBs with similar rookie results to Caleb Williams, who had a 10.8% sack rate and 27.8% pressure to sack rate in 2024.
- This gives hope for Williams being better at avoiding sacks going forward in his career, but I do want to offer a word of warning: the six QBs in this sample are Blake Bortles, Zach Wilson, Marcus Mariota, Blaine Gabbert, Kyler Murray, and Christian Ponder. That’s not exactly an inspiring list – most QBs who take that many sacks don’t end up sticking around long as NFL starters.
- The average QB on this list saw their pressure to sack rate drop by nearly 8% – that drop alone would bring Caleb Williams from 67 to 48 sacks with the same number of pressures he faced in 2024.
- (Random side note: an astute reader might note that Williams’ sack rate was listed at 10.0% percent earlier in this series, which is lower than 10.8% here. I had data for 2024 that led me include scrambles in sack rates, but not for all years, so this is standard sack rate only considering sacks and passes attempted.)
- Like noted above, most QBs with a similar sack and pressure profile as Williams in their rookie seasons did not pan out. That may or may not be a coincidence in a small sample size, but there are some specific examples I want to point to as causes for optimism.
- Kyler Murray had an 8.1% sack rate and 25.7% pressure to sack rate as a rookie. Arizona kept Kliff Kingsbury as head coach and play caller but added 2 new starters on the offensive line after his rookie season, and his sophomore campaign saw his sack rate at 4.6% and pressure to sack rate drop to 15.1%.
- Bryce Young had a 10.5% sack rate and 24.5% pressure to sack rate as a rookie. Carolina changed the offensive system and added 3 new starters on the offensive line after his rookie season, and his sophomore campaign saw his sack rate at 7.0% and pressure to sack rate at 16.9%.
- Jared Goff didn’t qualify for this study since he only had 205 pass attempts his rookie year, but he makes some sense as a comparison too. His rookie season saw an 11.3% sack rate and 24.5% pressure to sack rate. LA fired their defensive head coach and hired offensive whiz Sean McVay after his rookie season and added 3 new starters on the OL, which is about the closest offseason comparison you will find for Caleb Williams this year. Goff’s sophomore campaign saw a 5.0% sack rate with 13.7% pressure to sack rate.
- It’s also worth looking at Caleb’s college stats to see how they changed over time.
- Unlike what we saw with his deep accuracy earlier in the series, there’s no clear trend here.
- 2021: 7.6% sack rate, 19.8% pressure to sack rate
- 2022: 5.3% sack rate, 16.0% pressure to sack rate
- 2023: 7.3% sack rate, 21.9% pressure to sack rate
- Caleb showed in 2022 he can keep his sack and pressure to sack rates at a manageable level, but 2 of his 3 seasons saw those rates be on the higher side. This was arguably the biggest criticism of Williams coming into the NFL, and he will need to work diligently to do a better job of avoiding sacks in order to have any chance at reaching his NFL ceiling.
- Unlike what we saw with his deep accuracy earlier in the series, there’s no clear trend here.
Lessons Learned
In case you got lost in all the words, here are the main takeaways from today:
- Chicago’s sack problems were a combined result of both Caleb Williams and the offensive line in 2024. Each group was individually responsible for the most sacks of anybody in the NFL.
- Williams will still be here in 2025, so he needs to be significantly better both at not inviting pressure on himself and at not letting pressure turn into sacks. Most QBs with similar pressure and sack rates in their rookie season saw significant improvement in year 2.
- The OL will have upgraded starters, which should help some, but their biggest problems came from atrocious depth, which needs to be a real focus for the Bears this offseason.
