The offseason is winding down as we are now firmly in training camp and shifting into preseason mode, but before the real games start I want to sneak one last series examining part of the roster to give us a better sense of what to expect in the 2024 season.

I’ve spent quite a bit of time looking at the offense in the last few months, as we’ve learned together about new OC Shane Waldron, the WRs, the TEs, and expectations for rookies Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze. However, I’ve completely ignored the offensive line, and want to spend a little time this week focusing on the big boys up front who will be tasked with protecting the quarterback and opening lanes in the run game.

We’ll start today with the interior, and look at tackles tomorrow.

Guards

Pass Protection

Let’s start with guards, and then begin by examining pass protection, which is the most important part of an offensive lineman’s job. There were 62 guards (1.9/team) who had at least 300 pass blocking snaps in 2023, which is roughly starters. Chicago had three players in this sample: Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, and Cody Whitehair. The table below shows how they help up protecting the passer compared their peers around the NFL. A few quick notes:

• All data is from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
• True pass sets are intended to remove plays designed to minimize the pass rush and make the OL’s job easier, such as screens, play action, and rollout.
• Pass blocking efficiency measures overall pressure allowed, but weights sacks more heavily than other pressures. A higher number is better.
• In a 62 player sample, 31st would be the middle rank, while cells highlighted in green indicate they ranked in the top 25% (top 16) and red indicates the bottom 25% (47th or worse).
• Ryan Bates is also included, since he will be competing for a starting spot this year.
  • He didn’t play much in 2023, so his data is from 2022, and thus doesn’t have any ranks indicated.
  • The Bears plan to have him compete at center, but he’s only played 203 career snaps at C spread across 4 seasons, so that’s not much to go on. He played 821 snaps at guard in 2022, the only season where he’s had starting snaps, so that’s what we’ll evaluate.

Side note: sorry if there are formatting issues with the table. You can view it in full by clicking on it. 

A few thoughts:

• Before we dive into the data, I want to acknowledge this is all somewhat subjective, and different places define pressure differently.
  • There is also a difference in what is asked from players. Some tackles get more help from tight ends, running backs, or guards, and some teams get the ball out more quickly than others.
  • That’s why I try to look at multiple metrics, including the PFF grade, which is based on how well somebody watching the film thinks they performed while hopefully taking some of that context into account.
  • When interpreting this data, I tend to think about it less in terms of any one number being an absolute, and more look at the collective rankings compared to other tackles to get a general feel for how well they fared.
• Like we saw with the tackles, the % of pass blocking snaps defined as true pass sets, which ask more of the offensive line, increased from one of the lowest marks in the NFL in 2022 to around average in 2023. This doesn’t say anything about the quality of a lineman, but does suggest that the coaches trusted the offensive line more.
• In terms of individual players, let’s start with Teven Jenkins, who showed real improvement as a pass blocker from his 2022 campaign.
  • He was solidly above average pretty much across the board, including in true pass sets, which was an area he struggled more in 2022.
  • With that weakness of his game shored up, Jenkins has established himself as a high quality starting guard in the NFL. Now he just has to prove he can stay healthy.
• There’s no way to sugarcoat this: Nate Davis had a brutal 2023 season. That included, but was not limited to, being one of the worst pass blocking guards in the NFL.
  • In his defense, Davis lost his mother early in the season, and it’s important to remember these players are human. My performance at work would certainly be worse for several months if my Mom died.
  • If you want to be an optimist, Davis was a perfectly find pass blocker in 2022, as he ranked above average in snaps/pressure (25.7), PFF grade (66.8), and pass block efficiency (97.6). So hopefully he can return to that form in 2024.
  • Of course, a pessimist could note that 2022 season was an outlier in a contract year, as Davis was below average in every metric every season from 2019-21 and has never in his career posted a true pass set grade above 45, even in that 2022 season.
  • With that in mind, expectations for Davis in 2024 should probably be for some improvement, but he’s not going to magically turn into a star. The hope is that he can at least be adequate as a pass protector, like he was in 2022.
  • With only $2M in dead money after the season and Davis due $9M in salary for 2025, this is essentially a contract year for him, so he should be highly motivated to perform his best.
• Cody Whitehair was generally fine in pass protection last year, but he’s not on the roster any more, so I don’t care enough to comment more than that.
• Ryan Bates is here now, and while he hardly played in 2023, he generally did reasonably well as a pass blocker in his one year as a starter in Buffalo in 2022. He was around average in most metrics, though it is difficult to predict how that would translate to center, where the responsibilities asked of him would be different.

Run Blocking

Let’s switch now to run blocking, where there is less quantifiable data to go on, and I unfortunately have nothing but PFF grades for the players. PFF does split the data into gap and zone runs; you can read more here for information about the difference, but generally zone runs make the lineman responsible for a specific area and let the running back read where the hole is, while gap runs aim to clear a hole in a specific gap.

The table below shows how Chicago’s guards graded out compared to 64 NFL guards (2.0/team, so starters) with 200+ run blocks in 2023, plus has data (but no rankings) for Ryan Bates from 2022 like in pass blocking above. In a 64 player sample, 32 is the average, cells highlighted in green indicate they ranked in the top 25% (16 or better), while red indicates the bottom 25% (49 or worse).

A few thoughts:

• We saw with the tackles that new OC Shane Waldron consistently runs a very zone-heavy scheme (60% zone/29% gap across 3 seasons in Seattle), so that is the more important type of play to look at here in terms of thinking about Chicago in 2024.
• Teven Jenkins is a run blocking stud, which is consistent with his 2022 performance.
  • One thing that is different from 2022 is that Jenkins struggled in gap plays, but he has continuously excelled as a zone blocker for 2 years now, and will be asked to do even more zone this year.
• Nate Davis was pretty bad as a run blocker last year, ranking below average in both gap and zone.
  • Unlike with pass protection, this was a distinct shift from the past. From 2020-22 Davis graded at 70 or higher in total run blocking every year, with an average zone grade of 73 and gap grade of 75.
  • Therefore it seems like a reasonable expectation to expect Davis to be a plus run blocker in 2024, especially in such a zone-heavy scheme.
• Cody Whitehair was one of the worst run blocking guards in the NFL last year, which matches his 2022 performance. Again, he’s not back in Chicago, but my take on this would be that injuries have taken their toll and he no longer has the athleticism needed to do the pulling required of guards in the run game.
• Ryan Bates generally graded out as a below-average run blocker in 2022, and was generally fine in gap but struggled in zone.
  • It’s also worth noting he did a lot more gap than zone in Buffalo, so we haven’t seen a whole lot of him blocking zone runs.
  • Coupled with a possible move from G to C in Chicago, his run blocking should be considered a significant unknown.

Centers

Pass Protection

Let’s move now to centers, where the data will mirror that of guard above. Accordingly, I’m not going to re-explain each table, but I will mention a few things:

• It includes Lucas Patrick, Chicago’s starting center in 2023 who is no longer on the roster, and Coleman Shelton, who played 2023 with the Rams and is now competing to be Chicago’s starter.
• The comparison sample is 33 centers with 300+ pass blocking snaps, so 17 is the middle, the top 25 % (top 8) are green, and the bottom 25% (26 or worse) are red.

A few thoughts:

• Lucas Patrick is bad, but I assume anybody reading this article already knew that. He’s no longer in Chicago, so I’m not going to spend any more time on his pass blocking.
• At first glance, Coleman Shelton doesn’t seem to be much of an upgrade, which is troubling. Of course, Shelton signed a 1 year, $3.5 M deal in free agency, making him the 21st highest paid center in the NFL, so he’s not expected to be particularly good.
  • Shelton performed much better in 2022, his 1st year playing starting level snaps. He had 37.9 snaps/pressure and a 71.3 PFF pass blocking grade, both of which are quality numbers, and he held up in true pass sets as well (20.2 snaps/pressure, 67.0 PFF blocking grade).
  • An optimist could say Shelton has shown he can play well and is looking to bounce back in 2024. A pessimist could say Shelton has shown he is capable of quality play but is highly inconsistent, a profile typically seen of top backups.
  • With only 2 years of data, we can’t know for sure, but I would say it’s more likely the latter. That would match the NFL’s opinion of him based on his contract.
• This won’t help for 2024, but I am assuming the Bears will invest a high draft pick in an interior offensive lineman, likely a C, next year. It’s a position where they haven’t really made an investment yet in the draft or free agency, and one needs to come eventually.

Run Blocking

Finally, we’ll end with run blocking. The table below shows the same two players (Lucas Patrick and Coleman Shelton) as pass blocking above compared to an NFL sample of 32 centers with 200+ run blocking snaps. 16th is in the middle, top 25% (top 8) is green, and bottom 25% (25 or worse) is red.

A few thoughts:

• Once again, Lucas Patrick is bad. Once again, I don’t care. That’s New Orleans’ problem now.
• Coleman Shelton looks appreciably better here than as a pass protector, as he graded out above average in overall run blocking and especially thrived as a zone run blocker – remember, new OC Shane Waldron brings an extremely zone-heavy run scheme with him from Seattle.
  • It’s worth noting that Shelton did a lot more gap blocking in LA, which makes the zone blocking sample size smaller and thus gives us less confidence it is real and sustainable.
  • Looking back to 2022 further reinforces that lack of confidence, as Shelton earned a 55.4 run blocking grade, including a 50.7 in zone.
  • That leaves us, once again, with two possible interpretations. An optimist could say 2023 showed improvement that should continue into 2024. A pessimist could say it shows Shelton’s lack of consistency, and therefore we can’t rely on the strong run blocking from 2023 carrying over.
  • Once again, I lean to the pessimistic side. I’d be more tempted to buy the improvement narrative if he had also improved as a pass blocker in 2023, but he regressed heavily there, which makes this feel more random.
  • The fact that Shelton will be in a new scheme and doing a lot more zone blocking than he did in LA also adds to the unknown factor of how well he’ll perform as a run blocker in Chicago.

Lessons Learned

Let’s wrap this up with the main takeaways from today:

• Teven Jenkins is a plus pass blocker and elite run blocker, and he should be an anchor of Chicago’s offensive line if he can stay healthy.
• Nate Davis was brutal in 2023, but past history suggests he should bounce back some in 2024. Expectations should be tempered for his pass protection, which has never been particularly strong, but he has a strong track record as a plus run blocker.
• Coleman Shelton and Ryan Bates should compete for the center spot, but both are quite big unknowns.
  • Bates has mostly played guard in his NFL career, so we don’t have meaningful center data to go on, but at guard he was mostly adequate in pass protection and subpar in the run game.
  • Shelton started for the past two seasons, and was good as a pass blocker and bad as a run blocker in 2022 before seeing those trends flip in 2023. This makes it hard to say with any confidence how he’ll perform in 2024.
  • Further muddying the waters in predicting run blocking performance, both Shelton and Bates are coming to Chicago’s zone-heavy scheme from gap-heavy offenses, meaning what they will be asked to do is fairly different than what they’ve done in the past.