I took a twenty-year sabbatical from the world of fantasy football, returning in 2022 and stunning the fantasy world with a third place finish that season in the Thomas H. Bowden league. (The league is named after one of our original members who passed on 9/11.)
In 2023, my expectation rose, and my draft haul of Tyreek Hill, Davonte Adams, Deebo Samuel and Michael Pittman suggested those expectations would be met. But this is a keeper league. And I kept Justin Fields. I also took an earlyish-round shot on a tight end I thought was going to have a monster year: Darren Waller. I finished in third place once again, but most of that was luck.
Other than listening to The Fantasy Footballers podcast – a delightful show I make part of my daily NFL season routine – I do zero research before the draft. But I’m still asked to discuss the Bears on fantasy podcasts around the country. This year, the Bears are fantasy relevant, and those requests have tripled. (My acceptance rate has not.) Here are some thoughts I have shared.
D’Andre Swift is being under drafted.
Most platforms have Swift being taken as the RB22-25, behind the likes of Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris and Aaron Jones. But there are three reasons I’m targeting Swift.
(1) The Bears did. This was a player the franchise identified and acquired extremely early in free agency and for good reason. He is going to be a focal point of this offense.
(2) Preseason usage. One screen. 50 yards. No snaps since. If the Bears are planning to platoon Swift and Herbert evenly, they sure aren’t suggesting that with their summer snaps.
(3) Receiving game. Shane Waldron’s two backs in Seattle last year – Walker and Charbonnet – caught 62 balls for 468 yards. And neither of those backs presents the threat in the passing game that Swift does.
Another Back I Love: Isiah Pacheco. It has been a long time since Andy Reid has fielded a proper three-down back and I think Pacheco is destined for that kind of season.
Rome Odunze is a late-round target.
By Thanksgiving, I think Rome is going to be Caleb’s primary target. They have an obvious chemistry, especially when plays break down and Caleb is forced to go off-script. This is not to say DJ Moore won’t still finish the season as the team leader in every pertinent receiving statistic, but the trend lines will start shifting as Caleb becomes more comfortable under center.
I wouldn’t reach for Rome in a draft. But if he’s on the board in the later rounds, I’m not hesitating to draft him.
Receiver I’m Avoiding: George Pickens. There’s a multicar pileup at quarterback in Pittsburgh. I don’t want any piece of that offense.
Short Cole Kmet.
Where are the targets coming from? With Swift out of the backfield and these three receivers, how many looks can Cole plausibly expect? Kmet is a very good player, and he should have an excellent season, but it’s far-fetched to think he’ll have the volume required to be impactful fantasy tight end.
My Top Tight End: Trey McBride.
Look at the defense’s early schedule.
Tennessee at home. Houston and Indy on the road. Los Angeles and Carolina at home. Jacksonville in London. The Bears are likely to be favored, especially if they play well in the opener, in all but one of their games before the bye. Would you love the matchup in Houston? No, but that’s a game where they are likely to see Stroud throw forty passes. That’s forty opportunities. If you draft this Bears defense, you can park them in your starting lineup until mid-October.
Defense to Target: Atlanta. Raheem Morris is a terrific football coach, and the Falcons should cruise to an NFC South division title. This is not a great defensive roster but six games against Bryce, Baker and Carr feels notable.
